On October 5, one month before the November 3 general election, KOB-4 released the results of a scientific poll taken of 800 registered and likely voters in the ’26 New Mexico Governor’s race between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Greg Hull. The Poll was conducted exclusively for KOB-4 by Survey USA. The poll was taken from September 25 to September 30.
POLL RESULTS
The poll reveals that Democrat Deb Haaland leads Republican Gregg Hull 47% to 41% in the race for Governor with 12% of likely voters undecided.
Deb Haaland, the former Secretary of the Interior under President Joe Biden and a former US Representative for New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, leads with 69% among both Liberals and Democrats. Republican Gregg Hull, the former Rio Rancho Mayor leads by 69% among Conservatives and by 75% among Republicans.
Moderates stated they will vote for Deb Haaland by a 20% margin and Independents stated they will vote for Deb Halland by a 10% margin.
Deb Haaland has a 21% advantage among women, while Gregg Hull leads by 8% among men which is a 29% gender gap.
Deb Haaland leads by 13% among voters under age 50, but has just a mere 1% edge on Greg Hull among those age 50+.
White voters back Greg Hull by a 3% margin. Latino voters back Deb Haaland by 15%. “Other” race categories back Haaland by 18%.
Regionally, Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull by 17% in Bernalillo County and by 16% in Doña Ana County. Greg Hull leads Deb Haaland by 3% in the remainder regions of the state.
On the issues, Hull leads Haaland with 53% among the 13% of likely voters who say crime is the issue which will most influence their vote this year, and with 35% among the 15% most-focused on immigration and border security.
On the issues, Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull by 50% among the 12% who say national politics is most important, by 34% among the one-third of voters who say inflation is most important, by 26% among the 5% who say it’s the job market, and by 6% among the 6% listing abortion and reproductive rights is their top issue.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
KOB 4 and the Survey USA poll also looked at the favorability ratings of the two candidates. SurveyUSA asked 673 registered voters whether they viewed each candidate favorably or unfavorably.
The poll revealed 31% viewed Deb Haaland favorably while 35% view her unfavorably. Another 19% said they are neutral and 16% said they are unfamiliar with her. Among independent voters, 21% view Haaland favorably and 32% view her unfavorably.
The poll revealed 29% viewed Gregg Hull favorably and 21% said unfavorable. Another 24% said they were neutral and 27% said they are not familiar with Greg Hull.
SURVEY USA POLL METHODOLOGY
SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults during the time period from September 25 to September 30, 2026. Of those polled, 673 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 567 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election. The poll was conducted using blended sample with a mixed mode. 45% of likely voters were interviewed on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device using non-probability sample of internet panel members. 55% were interviewed using probability-based telephone sample of adults with 30% interviewed on their landline telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. 25% were interviewed using a live operator hand-texted respondents on their mobile phones, secured their cooperation, and linked them to an online version of the survey. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
The links to quoted or relied upon news sources are here:
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-finds-haaland-leading-hull-by-6-points-in-head-to-head-race/
https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6e6ded19-6ad8-4379-8fa9-6a15dfa99052
RECALLING ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, August 30, the Albuquerque Journal Published its poll in the 2026 race for Governor. The Journal poll found 49% of likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat Deb Haaland, who is seeking to become the first Native American woman elected governor in the nation’s history. Meanwhile, 43% of voters said they plan to vote for Republican Gregg Hull, the former Rio Rancho mayor who would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016. The remaining 8% of voters surveyed said they had not yet decided on who they would support in the November general election. The overall 6-point margin separating Deb Haaland and Greg Hull in the Journal Poll mirrors the final margin of New Mexico’s 2022 gubernatorial race between Democrat Incumbent Governor Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti.
PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS RECALLED
On Tuesday, June 2, 2026, the New Mexico primary election took place. It was the first semi-open primary in New Mexico history where independent voters could choose either the Democratic or Republican primary to vote in without having to register with that party. Overall voter turn out was the largest primary turnout in the last twelve years helped by the inclusion of independent voters who for the first time were allowed to vote in major party primaries. Independents voted Democratic with 28,000 and voted Republican with 10,000.
New Mexico history was made in the Democratic Primary for Governor when former Biden Cabinet Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland became the first Native American woman to be nominated for Governor of New Mexico. Deb Haaland garnered 72.3% (156,861 votes) of the votes to Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman’s 27.7% (60,189) cast around New Mexico. Haaland won every single county in the state by varying percentages. In Santa Fe County she won with 80% of the Democratic vote. In Bernalillo County Haaland won with 69%. In Dona Ana County, she won with 79%. In conservative Chavez County, thought to lean moderate Bregman, she won with 73%.
On the Republican side for Governor, former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho Greg Hull prevailed to win the Republican nomination claiming victory over business owner Doug Turner and cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez in a three-way race for the GOP nomination. Gregg Hull secured 47% of the vote (56,412), Doug W. Turner secured 36.9% of the vote (44,319) and Duke Rodriguez secured 16.1% of the vote (19,288).
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The Channel 4 poll and the Albuquerque Journal Poll showing that Deb Haaland is leading Greg Hull by 6% in both polls but falling short of the 50% plus one margin to win reflects that the race for Governor is not over but that the trajectory of the race remains the same with Deb Haaland expected to win on November 3. The 6% Haaland lead in both polls is identical to the margin Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan defeated Republican Mark Ronchetti in her bid for a second four year term. In 2022, Governor Lujan Grisham did not garner 50% in polling until late in October, 2022.
Of major concern in the Channel 4 poll for Democrat Deb Haaland is that she has unfavorable rating of 35% compared to a 31% favorable,19% neutral and 16% unfamiliar. By comparison Republican Gregg Hull is the lesser known candidate and Hull’s favorability was at 29%, 21% unfavorable, 24% neutral and 27%.
Thus far, Gregg Hull has declined to go negative on Haaland. With less than a month before the election, that may change. Going negative can only happen if Hull is capable of raising enough campaign donations. According to the most recent campaign finance reports, Haaland has upwards of $3.5 million left to Hull’s $600,000 to spend in the last month of the campaign
Haaland remains the clear front runner. Republican Hull is facing an uphill battle in a Democratic leaning state. Democrat Deb Haaland is still well-positioned to win the November election even though the election may be closer than expected. Haaland is the former U.S. Interior secretary under President Joe Biden and a former congresswoman. Simply put, Haaland is a national figure with respect to her fundraising ability and the historical nature of her candidacy and the possibility of being the first native American who would be elected a governor.
Haaland also has tremendous support among women, highly educated voters and Independent voters and all taken together they will likely decide the election. Then there is the matter of the national political mood that clearly favors Democrats thanks in large part to President Trump’s disastrous presidency, the Iran war he has started and his disastrous handling of the economy.
As evidenced Deb Haaland’s Democratic primary victory of 72.3% (156,861 votes) over Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman’s 27.7% (60,189), Democrats are highly motivated to vote for Deb Haaland. President Trump’s extremely high negatives in the state will also have a major impact motivating voter turn out in a deep blue Democrat state.
In the final analysis, it will be a combination of the independent voters, the progressive voters and the female and Hispanic voters, along with an expected high Democratic voter turnout because of Trump’s negatives, that will result in Deb Haaland being elected our next Governor.
Election day is November 3. Early voting dates began October 6 and goes to October 31, 2026 (county clerk offices October 6–16; expanded locations October 17–31; hours vary by location). Please vote!
The link to a related article is here::