The third Campaign Finance Reports for Mayor of Albuquerque were filed on September 8, 2017 with the Albuquerque City Clerk for the reporting period of August 11, 2017 to September 7, 2017.

(See: https://www.cabq.gov/voting-elections/candidate-information/2017-mayoral-candidates)

There are (8) candidates running for Mayor.

If no candidate secures 50% or more of the vote, a runoff I will be held between the top voter getters, which is more likely than not given recent polling data.

There are seven (7) privately financed candidates, one (1) publicly financed candidate, and one (1) measured finance committee for the one publicly financed candidate.

There are three (3) weeks remaining until the October 3, 2017 municipal election.

TIM KELLER CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

Democrat Tim Keller is the only “publicly finance” candidate for Mayor.

Upon being qualified for public financing, Mr. Keller agreed in writing to spending caps and he is strictly prohibited from soliciting and using donations from any other source to run his campaign for Mayor.

The July 14, 2017 Tim Keller Campaign Finance Report states that on April 3, 2017 the Keller campaign was given $342,952 by the City of Albuquerque in public financing.

The Keller September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $226,761.94, that $107,954.50 was spent and the closing balance for the third reporting period is $118,807.44.

The August 11, 2017 finance report reflects that $24,615 of “in kind” donations reflected in cash amounts were made to the Keller campaign and notable “in kind” cash donations for goods and services to the Tim Keller campaign include:

Former New Mexico Lt. Governor Diane Denish who ran for NM Governor with Brian Colon as her running mate for Lt. Governor, ($1,000), New Mexico State Senator Mimi Stewart ($200), John Badal ($1,000), Scott Goodman, Goodman Realty Group ($2,500), Art Gardenshwartz ($1,000), Paul Cochran ($5,000), Joinie Griffin, Griffin & Associates the firm handling the public relations for the ART bus project ($1,000), Adam Harrington, HB Construction ($1,000), IATSE Local 423 ($1,000), William Sabatini ($500), City of Albuquerque Union AFSME Council 18 ($220), APD Police Oversight Board member William Kass ($1,000), Sam Field (1,000), Caporale Consultants ($1,000), Jim Collie ($1,000), Jason Harrignton ($1,000), Debra McFarlan ($500), Virginia Scharff ($500), Polly Jackson ($500).

Notable expenditures for the Tim Keller campaign include $15,691 to PUTMAN PARTNERS of Washington, DC, for “MEDIA”, $88,371 to BUYING TIME of Washington, DC for “MEDIA” and $2,000 to CONCEPT FLUX of Albuquerque, New Mexico for Media.

It is interesting to note that on the campaign trail Mr. Keller has emphasized the importance of the City of Albuquerque to give priority to local businesses but his media work is being performed by Washington, DC firms.

If Mr. Keller gets into the runoff, his campaign will be given approximately $118,000 more in public finance funds.

The September 8, 2017 finance report reflects $3,000 of “in kind” donations in cash amounts were made to the Tim Keller campaign which includes a single “in kind” donation of $2,500 from Ashley and Mathew Proctor.

The Republican Party of New Mexico and Republican candidate for Mayor Wayne Johnson have filed complaints with the Board of Elections and Campaign Practices challenging the cash “in-kind” donations received by Mr. Keller as being a violation of the public finance laws prohibiting Mr. Keller from soliciting any further cash donations after accepting public financing.

(See September 9, 2017 Albuquerque Journal, page A-1 “GOP seeks inquiry into Keller campaign; Critics question use of in-kind donations; campaign manager calls complaints frivolous)

What makes the “in-kind” donations to Mr. Keller’s campaign for goods and services listed as “cash” donations troubling is that there is no definitive rule or regulation that it is improper, but the solicitation of such donations by Mr. Keller’s campaign manager at the very least undermines the intent and spirit of the public finance laws.

It is the appearance of impropriety that looks so damaging coming from a New Mexico State Auditor that has earned a compelling reputation of holding people and government accountable for expending taxpayer money.

When Mr. Keller qualified for public financing, he agreed to a spending cap and agreed not to solicit any cash donations.

An audit can be performed by the city’s Campaign and Election Auditor which is provided for under the election code, rules and regulations to monitor all campaign disclosure statements, but three weeks before the election may not be enough time for a definitive ruling.

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

The state Republican Party going after Tim Keller should not come as any surprise because he is considered the front runner, except perhaps those who think Albuquerque municipal elections are nonpartisan.

Four years ago, I had to endure the incumbents $910,000 media campaign versus my $340,000 in public financing campaign all the while the Republican Party smeared me as much as they could while Republican operative Jay Mc Clusky managed the incumbents campaign and ran negative ads.

My biggest disappointment four years ago was that my own party did very little next to nothing to help my campaign, but that’s politics for you.

I was told by too many Democratic elected and party officials that it was a nonpartisan race and they would not help.

Democrats need to wake up and wake up fast to what is happening in Albuquerque.

See also my blog article “Party Divisions Playing Out In Mayors Race” at https://www.petedinelli.com/…/party-divisions-playing-out-i…/

THE TIM KELLER MEASURED FINANCE COMMITTEE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

ABQ FORWARD TOGETHER is a measure finance committee, registered with the City Clerk’s office, formed for the purpose “to support Tim Keller’s bid for Mayor”.

Measured finance committees are not bound by the individual contribution limits and business bans like a candidate.

The September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance report for “ABQ FORWARD TOGETHER” reflects that it had a beginning cash balance of $77,172.92 from the last reporting period, it had monetary contributions of $102,995.00 for the current reporting period, spent $6,135.66 and has a balance of $174,032.26 left to spend as it sees fit to promote Mr. Keller.

Cash donations to “ABQ FORWARD TOGETHER” that are noteworthy include:

$20,000 from AFSME council 18, $10,000 from IAFF Local 244, $5,000 from IBEW PAC Voluntary Fund, $2,500 from Ironworkers Local 495, two $2,500 donations from Center For Civic Action, $3,000 from NMHS PAC, $1,000 from DPA Action Fund, $2,000 from Richard Schneider, $2,500 from Edward Garcia, Garcia Auto Dealership, $2,500 from Julian Garcia, Automundo De Garcia, $2,500 from Sandy Buffett, $2,000 from Tim W. Allisonhatch, $1,000 from John B, Strong, $1,000 from Susan Palmer, $1,000 from attorney Kate Fenlic, $1,000 from Joanie Griffin, Griffin & Associates, the public relations firm for the ART Bus project, $600 from NM State Senator William Tallman, $250 from Josh Anderson with AFSME and $500 from Bond Attorney David Bucholtz.

It is clear from the donations made to ABQ FORWARD TOGETHER that Mr. Keller has substantial support from organized labor which will translate into significant volunteer help and even more contributions from union members and union organizations.

ABQ FORWARD TOGETHER can raise money up and through to the election day and beyond for a runoff election if Tim Keller gets into the runoff.

In his January announcement for Mayor, Tim Keller said “Let’s elect a Mayor without the big money we’ve come to expect in politics. That’s why we are running a community-driven, publicly financed campaign that fits the future of Albuquerque.”

Mr. Keller has the best of all political campaign finance world’s by first getting public financing to the tune of $342,952 and claiming he is “walking the walk” and running a “grassroots campaign”, and now having $118,807.44 left in public financing while at the same time receiving assistance from a measured finance committee that has $174,032.26 available to promote him and is chaired by a former political consultant who has worked on his past campaigns for the New Mexico State Senate.

BRIAN COLON CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

From review of the finance report of contributions and expenditures, Democrat Brian Colon has expended the most since the last reporting period and his fund raising was diminished for the period.

The Colon September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $535,579.82 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is $219,514.85 and spent $362,241.97 during the reporting period.

Brian Colon raised an additional $46,177 during the reporting period.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions reported in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Colon for Mayor include the following donors:

P.G. Enterprises, $5,150, ALB Living Inc, $5,150, Consolidated Solar Energies, $5,150, Nathan Corn, Kauffman’s West, $800, Gary Padilla, $3,850, SSA Auto Sales, $2,500, Rudolfo Law Firm, $1,500, Attorney Mark Rhodes, $2,000, Beatrice Beserra, $1,000, Cordelia Trimble, $1,000, Stephen Toll, $1,000, Aldo Vaio, $1,000, Tim Fresquez, $1,000, Attorney and forme APS Board memeber Martin Esquivel, $200, Former Bernalillo County Commissioner Art De La Cruz, $500, private attorney Michael F. Hart and brother of County Commissioner Maggie Hart Stebbins, Former Court of Appeals Judge Ira Robinson, $200 and Bond Attorney David Bucholtz, $500.

Notable expenditures listed in the August 11, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Colon for Mayor include:

CANAL Partners Media, Atlanta Georgia, three expenditures of $77,075, $77,075 and $72,275, Bouchard Gold Company, Austin, Texas, $45,000 and $2,905 for media and photography, IRICK Productions, Albuquerque, $45,600, Switchboard, Washington DC, Digital Advertising, $12,500, Three Point Media, Washington, DC, $4,572, POTOMAC WAVES, Washington, DC, $12,000.

It is interesting to note that on the campaign trail Mr. Colon has emphasized the importance of the City giving priority to local businesses for work but his media work is being done with out of state firms in Georgia, Texas and Washington, DC.

DAN LEWIS CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Dan Lewis September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $169,289.37 and the closing balance for the current reporting period is $194,501 available to the campaign until the October 3, 2017 election.

Republican Dan Lewis raised an additional $55,317 during the reporting period and had expenditures of $30,104.50 during the last reporting period.

Total “in-kind” contributions to Dan Lewis for the reporting period was $7,550.00 which includes $3,000 from Tinnin Hunt for fundraising.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Dan Lewis for Mayor include the following donors:

National Association of Industrial and Office Parks (NAIOP), $5,000, Jeff Garrett, Garrett Development, $5,000, AAA Roofing, $2,500, Tim Gorham, Bode Aviation, which operates out at the City’s Double Eagle II airport, $2,500, John Bode, Bode Aviation, $2,500, Guzman Construction Solutions, $2,500, J&M Discount Towing, $1,000, Premier Consulting, $1,000, Steve Downe, $1,000, Tim Turner, $1,000, Attorney David Strandridge, $1,000, John Paul Espinoza, $1,000, Zachery D. Graham, $1,250, Michael Winkeljohn, $1,000, Larry Rainoseck, owner of Frontier Restaurant, $1,000, Bill Joiner, Joiner Construction, $250, David King, nephew of former Governor Bruce King, $500, former Chanel 7 TV news anchor Richard (Dick) Knifing, $500.

The fact that Dan Lewis received a $5,000 donation from NAIOP and other construction companies is a clear indication that Lewis is the beneficiary of Mayor Berry’s primary bastion of support within the construction industry and the real estate development community that do millions of dollars in construction work for the City of Albuquerque.

If Mr. Lewis makes it into a runoff, it is likely he will get significant support within the business community including members from organizations like the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, NAIOP and perhaps the Economic Forum.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Dan Lewis for Mayor include:

The Stoneridge Group, $10,000 and$11,363, 4700 Lincoln, LLC for office space, $2,600, Stewart Bragg, Lewis for Mayor, $2.000.

The Stoneridge Group is a political campaign marketing firm based in Alpharetta, Georgia, with offices in Louisville Kentucky and provides services to pro-life, Republican campaigns, associations, and non-profits including voter contact mail, website design and online campaigns, print and collateral items, and strategic consulting.

Dan Lewis has cash on hand of $194,501.87 to run a traditional media political campaign on TV and radio.

Notwithstanding, Dan Lewis is running a “social media” campaign for Mayor.

Republican Dan Lewis continues to produce and release commercials on FACEBOOK.

There are severe doubts that a “social media” campaign will reach older, conservative and most likely to vote people who are 50 years of age or older who do not use social media such as FACEBOOK.

Mr. Lewis has not polled well and two recent polls show him first polling at 11% and then 7.8% respectively.

Republican Wayne Johnson is competing for the same conservative Republican votes of Republican Dan Lewis and according to a recent poll they are tied at 7.8%.

WAYNE JOHNSON CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Wayne Johnson September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $207,770.61 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is now $219,738.25.

Republican Wayne Johnson raised an additional $48,365.00 during the reporting period.

The Wayne Johnson for Mayor campaign reported spending $36,397.36 during the last reporting period.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Wayne Johnson for Mayor include the following donors:

National Association of Industrial and Office Parks (NAIOP), $5,000, (NOTE: NAIOP also donated $5,000 to Dan Lewis), Albuquerque. Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry, $500, Kursten Johnson, two $5,000 donations, Mechanical Control Systems, Gizelle Alvarez, City of Albuquerque, two $2,000 donations, $2,500, Stan Hubbard, Hubbard Broadcasting, $1,000, Beverly Sanchez, $1,000, Doug Clark, $1,000, Gene Hinkle, Hinkle Investments, $1,000, Don Mc Cleod, Mc Cleod Business Group, $1,000, Associated Contractors of New Mexico, $1,000, Jim Gianelli, $1,000, Nancy Ekern, $500, Robert Bolton, $500, Clark High Street, $500, Charles Johnson, $500, Steve Siligman, $500 and realtor Shirley Rich, $500.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Dan Lewis for Mayor include:

Vista Media (Wayne Johnson), $4,263, Wyatt Bortsch, $2,000, SRCP for media placement, $1,077.87, DIRECT EDGE CAMPAIGNS, a direct mail firm, $785, $7,767, $5,102, EKERN Company, Anne Ekron for consulting, $5,000, $2,419 and $1,274. (NOTE: EKRON is a political consulting firm that also advised Mayor Berry’s campaign in 2013.

The Wayne Johnson campaign for mayor had $1,387.83 of “in-kind” donations during the last reporting period of which $1,142 was from the Gilmore Mosely Group.

Republican Wayne Johnson is competing for the same conservative Republican votes of Republican Dan Lewis and according to a recent poll they are tied at 7.8%.

Republican political operative and Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry has donated to Wayne Johnson and Perry will probably want to keep his $195,000 job under a Johnson administration.

Republican Wayne Johnson has been endorsed by Republican Political operative Sherman McCorkle and Ed Lujan, who have both done FACEBOOK testimonials for Johnson, indicating Johnson has made serious inroads into the Dan Lewis Republican base.

Sherman Mc Corkle was Mayor Berry’s transition team chairman eight (8) years ago and is heavily involved with the Albuquerque Greater Chamber of Commerce, the Hispano Chamber of Commerce and the Albuquerque Economic Forum.

RICARDO CHAVES CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

Ricardo Chaves is a “self-financed” candidate for Mayor.

The Ricardo Chaves July 14, 2017 Campaign Finance Report revealed that he loaned his campaign for Mayor $500,000.

Mr. Chaves reported in the July 14, 2017 report that he spent $134,666.27 for campaign consulting, management and petition signature gathering to get on the ballot and he had $373,981.53 remaining in his campaign account.

The Ricardo Chaves September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $373,228.34 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is now $298,174.64.

The only notable expenditures listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Ricardo Chaves for Mayor is another $75,000 paid to Robert E. Cornelius as a consulting fee.

Mr. Chaves reported he received and $1,858.92 “in kind” contribution from himself for office rental and warehouse space.

The fact that Mr. Chavez has personally loaned his campaign $500,000 and that he still has $298,174 indicates he is a serious candidate with enough money to run political commercials or send out mailers that will impact the race or his entire candidacy has been a ruse and he has no intent on spending anything more of what he has left and will be just reimbursing himself.

MICHELLE GARCIA HOLMES CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Garcia-Holmes September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states a cash balance from the last reporting period of $33,300.06 and a closing balance for the recent reporting period as $11,158.36.

The September 8, 2017 financial report reflects Michelle Garcia Holmes reported cash contributions of $9,145.00 with expenditures of $31,286.70 and a closing balance of $11,158.36.

Michelle Garcia Holmes and her husband Earl Holmes each contributed $5,000 for a total of $10,000 to her campaign for Mayor.

Notable cash contributions listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Michell Garcia Holmes for Mayor include the following donors:

Michell Garcia Holmes, $5,000, Joel Jenkins, $2,000, former Attorney General Gary King, $250 and Belinda Drummond. $1,000.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Michell Garcia Holmes for Mayor include Adelante Mailing Services, $1,087 and $8,750 and KRQE TV, $21,381,75.

Total “in kind” donations for the period were $23, 859 and include the following:

D.J. Heckes, $4,795, AURAE 3 LLC, for media and public relations, $5,000, Joshua Valano with AURAE 3 LLC for media and public relations, $5,150, Mitchelle Garcia Holmes for radio ads, $3495.07, Kathi Cunnigham for media and public relations, $250, Ice Blue Advertising for marketing and ads, $844.

SUSAN WHEELER-DEICHEL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Susan Wheeler-Deichel campaign did not file the September 8, 2017 finance report.

The August 11, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Wheeler-Deichel reported a balance from the last reporting period of $341.34, total monetary contributions for the reporting period of $1,685.00, total expenditures of $3,955.63 with a negative balance of $1,929.29.

Notable expenditures were for campaign materials and employee services.

The July 17, 2017 finance report reflected $6,275 in monetary contributions to the Susan Wheeler-Deichel campaign, of which $6,175 was a personal loan to her campaign.

GUS PEDROTTY CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

Gus Pedrotty is running a social media campaign by making at least three (3) FACEBOOK commercials that he has written and produced by himself with the commercials being well produced and exhibiting great creativity.

The Gus Pedrotty September 8, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $3,091.88, total monetary contributions for the reporting period as $3,272.39, total expenditures of $3,274.79 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is as $3,089.48.

Most of Mr. Pedrotty’s donations are cash amounts of $5, $25, $50 with a few $100 and $200 donations.

Notable expenditures were to Greetings Etc. for $1,393, $296 and $516 for printed materials and FEACEBOOK for $397 and $250.

Mr. Pedrotty is very articulate, understands the issues and has stood out at all the debates and forums.

RECENT POLLING

On September 6, 2017, KOB reported a second poll in the 2017 Mayor’s race.

KOB reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22.6%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 19.3%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 7.8%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7.8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 5.8%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 3.5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1.9%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1.8%

The biggest winner in the KOB poll was again “undecided” at 30% as compared to the 36% of undecided in the KRQE poll reported just one day earlier.

The biggest surprise is that Brian Colon has surged beyond Dan Lewis and Wayne Johnson, each having 7.8%, with Colon at 19.3% and coming in second to front runner Tim Keller, who polled at 22.6% with Colon within the margin of error.
Keller’s poll number in the KOB poll at 22.6% is virtually the same as his KRQE poll number at 22%.

Typically, people dispute polls results, but they tend to be self-fulling prophecies that have the effect of gutting the chances of lesser known candidates and drying up campaign contributions to others.

CONCLUSION

From a historical standpoint, municipal elections are very low voter turnout. The reliable municipal voters tend to be 50 years and older and conservative. Four years ago, only 19% of eligible voters voted in the lowest voter turnout since 1977.

As the saying goes “a week in politics is an eternity”.

Political television ads, especially negative ads, can affect poll numbers and the outcome of the race.

The wild card in this election “House of Cards” is the considerable amount of money sources are saying is being raised and will be spent to run highly negative ads against Keller and Colón.

According to reliable sources, negative ads have already been produced to run against Colón and Keller and will hit the airwaves within a few days.

Even with only three weeks remaining, just about anything can happen.

http://www.freeabq.com/2017/09/08/dinelli-poll-2/

On September 5, 2017 KRQE reported the first poll in the 2017 Mayor’s race and three days later on September 8, 2017 KOB reported a second poll.

Comparing both polls reveals that the race for Mayor is indeed heating up and there is a major shift in the race when it comes to the two front runners.

For many months, political pundits have been predicting that a runoff will occur between Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis and Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller, but that may not occur.

In both polls, both Lewis and Keller have not performed as well as what was being predicted by insiders.

The KRQE poll was one of 500 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 5% which reduces accuracy.

The KRQE poll was taken before any of the candidates began to spend on radio and tv commercials.

KRQE reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 11%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 10%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 6%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%

The biggest winner in the KRQE poll was “undecided” at 36%.

On September 6, 2017, KOB reported the second poll in the 2017 Mayor’s race.

http://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/mayoral-election-race-carroll-strategies-polling-albuquerque/4597439/?cat=500

The poll was conducted by Carol Strategies on September 3, 4, and 5, 2017.

The poll was one of 513 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 4.3%.

KOB reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22.6%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 19.3%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 7.8%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7.8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 5.8%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 3.5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1.9%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1.8%

The biggest winner in the KOB poll was again “undecided” at 30% as compared to the 36% of undecided in the KRQE poll reported just one day earlier.

The biggest surprise is the fact that Brian Colon has now surged beyond Dan Lewis and Wayne Johnson, each having 7.8%, with Colon at 19.3% and coming in second to front runner Tim Keller, who polled at 22.6% with Colon within the margin of error.

Keller’s poll number in the KOB poll at 22.6% is virtually the same as his KRQE poll number at 22%.

SANDERS VERSUS CLINTON FACTIONS WITHIN DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Tim Keller’s support I would say predominantly comes from the progressive wing of the Democratic party represented by Bernie Sanders supporters based upon my observations at forums and attending Democratic functions.

Brian Colon’s support comes from the more traditional wing of the Democratic party represented by Hillary Clinton and traditional Hispanic Democrats based upon my knowledge of the Democratic party and attendance at Democratic Party functions and the forums.

Many political pundits and insiders were suggesting Mr. Keller had at least 30% or more being reflected in private campaign polling given his high name recognition as State Auditor, his very considerable support within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, his endorsements and the substantial union contributions to his measured finance committee or PAC.

What Mr. Keller needs to be concerned about at this point is that he may have peaked with any further increase in his poll numbers stymied by his reduced funding as a “public financed” candidate and an inability to get his message out with television commercials.

Keller is running a 15 second TV commercial, but it may not get enough play given his scarce financial resources.

However, there is a measured finance committee set up for Mr. Keller that will be promoting his candidacy and will have at least $100,000 to promote him.

Colon almost double his poll numbers in one week going from 10% in the KRQE poll to 19% in the KOB poll.

Colon’s increase in his poll numbers can be directly correlated to his recent TV commercials featuring popular Attorney General Hector Balderas endorsing him.

Brian Colon ran TV commercials for a full week featuring Attorney General Hector Balderas endorsing him, with no other candidate running commercials.

The Balderas endorsement was critical to help Colon solidify the Hispanic vote as well as the more traditional wing of the Democratic Party which will offset the progressive wing of the Democratic party which is supporting Keller.

TRUMP FACTION AND TRADITIONAL REPUBLICANS

Republicans Dan Lewis, Wayne Johnson and Ricardo Chavez are dividing up the conservative Republican vote, with Wayne Johnson increasing his criticism of Lewis.

Johnson could easily overtake Dan Lewis and giving Johnson the possibility to reach the runoff.

Republican Dan Lewis is drawing his significant support from the more traditional faction of the Republican Party based upon review of his donors and his anti-crime platform to put repeat offenders in jail and his attacks on the judiciary.

Republican Wayne Johnson is far more conservative than Republican Dan Lewis and is drawing significant support of Trump supporters with opposition to making Albuquerque Sanctuary city and drawing significant support from the business community with his opposition to the mandatory sick leave initiative.

Ricardo Chavez remains a viable Republican candidate by self-financing his campaign and willingness to spend upwards of $500,000 of his own money and his appeal to Trump supporters.

I suspect the combined poll numbers reflected by Lewis, Johnson and Chaves are highly reliable conservative voters but if none of these three make it into the runoff, the real question raised is will their voters sit out the runoff election and not vote for any Democrat?

MANDATORY SICK LEAVE INITIATIVE

As is the case with any election, voter turnout will be critical.

The mandatory sick leave will also be on the ballot and just may increase voter turnout, but that will cut both ways as having the potential to increase voter turnout of progressives and conservatives.

A coalition of 27 business organizations has been formed to oppose the mandatory sick leave initiative and has raised over $100,000 to oppose it and you can expect more and an aggressive campaign to defeat it as was done with the “soda tax” in Santa Fe.

From a historical standpoint, municipal elections are very low voter turnout with between 20% and 25%.

The reliable municipal voters tend to be 50 years and older and conservative.

Four years ago, only 19% of eligible voters voted in the lowest voter turnout since 1977.

FINANCING AND NEGATIVE ADVERTISING

Expect large amounts of money spent over the next three weeks on TV and radio ads.

According to the August 11, 2017 Campaign Finance Reports, following are the closing balances for each of the candidates available for advertising and their campaigns:

Brian Colon – $535,579.82
Ricardo Chaves – $373,228
Tim Keller – $227,229.00
Tim Keller Measured Finance Committee – $77,172.00
Wayne Johnson – $207,770
Dan Lewis – $169,600
Michell Garcia Holmes – $33,300
Susan Wheeler Dieshel – $5,955.23
Gus Pedrotty – $3,091

The candidates have no doubt spent and raised more money during the last month and the next fiancé reports are due September 10, 2017.

The wild card is the considerable amount of money sources are saying is being raised and will be spent to run highly negative ads against Tim Keller and Brian Colon.

According to reliable sources, negative ads have already been produced against Colon and Keller and will be hitting the airwaves within a few days.

CONCLUSION

Even with only three weeks remaining, just about anything can happen in the Mayor’s race.

Although Tim Keller and Brian Colon are emerging as the front runners and may be in the runoff together, only time will tell if a Republican gets into the runoff.

If Republican voters get behind and consolidate their support of one Republican it will give a Republican candidate a better shot of being in the runoff.

Stay tuned for a lively three weeks in Albuquerque politics.

http://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/albuquerque-real-time-crime-center-tj-wilham-job-position-reapply/4596504/

According to a Channel 4 investigative report, APD’s Real Time Crime Center manager T.J. Wilham, the former spokesman for Mayor Berry and former Albuquerque Journal reporter, is being transferred from an unclassified, at will position he holds to the same position that is now classified giving him more job security so he may be better protected from losing his job when a new mayor takes over on December 1, 2017.

As was the case with Dayna Crawford being transferred into a classified position at the Transit Department, TJ Wilham being transferred into a classified position is so very wrong on so many levels.

It turns out his job description appears to have been almost handwritten with only him in mind, he then applies for the newly created classified job that he already was holding down as an at will employee and gets the job.

What adds insult to injury, as a civilian he is being given extensive and expensive training that should be reserved for sworn police officers and not civilians

TJ Wilham as an Albuquerque Journal reporter eight (8) years ago wrote highly biased stories against the Chavez Administration.

When Berry was elected, he went to work for Berry as his spokesman along with Chris Ramirez who left Channel 4 and later returned to the station.

City Hall insiders say TJ Wilham and Chris Ramirez did not get along and Ramirez was forced out, which may now explain Channel 4’s story to some degree.

TJ Whilham is paid paid $39.50 an hour or $82,160 or more than double what he made as a newspaper reporter, not including benefits from the City such as sick leave, annual leave and health insurance which adds about 20% to his base salary.

All too often political operatives take high paying political jobs with an elected administration knowing full well they are at-will employees assuming the risk of termination in exchange for a lucrative salary.

When their time finally runs out they seek the protections of personnel rules and regulations that are more designed to protect long term employees who make significantly less.

It’s the sense of entitlement to continued city employ net by Berry loyalist that is so very disturbing.

I remember 8 years ago, Mayor elect Berry during the transition sent one of his political operatives to the Mayor’s Office who wrote down the names off of names plates to get correct spellings of all the at will employees who worked in the Mayor’s office.

Berry then sent out termination letters and he filled the positions with his own loyalists.

I did not care, knew the risks and just retired.

http://krqe.com/2017/09/05/krqe-poll-albuquerque-voters-weigh-options-for-mayor-cite-crime-as-top-concern/
http://www.freeabq.com/2017/09/07/dinekki-poll/

On September 5, 2017 KRQE reported the first poll of any news agency in the 2017 Mayor’s race.

Since mid-July, political insiders and pundits have claimed private campaign organization polls had Tim Keller with a comfortable lead with his poll numbers in the high twenties or low 30s, while Dan Lewis and Brian Colon were running neck and neck for second place, with all the other candidates having very low single digit poll numbers.

Since mid-July, inside sources have also said campaign polls showed that there was high “undecided” number of voters, as much as 43%.

The KRQE poll appears to have confirmed what has been going on since mid-July, however some of the candidates did not perform as well as what was expected, especially Dan Lewis and Tim Keller.

The consistent take on the race has been that it will be Keller and Lewis in a runoff, but the poll makes that face off cloudy at best.

The poll was one of 500 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error which reduces accuracy.

The poll was also taken before any of the candidates began to spend on radio and tv commercials.

KRQE reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 11%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 10%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 6%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%

The biggest winner in the KRQE poll was “undecided” at 36%.

Based on the numbers, the KRQE poll is probably more a reflection of name recognition than public support which would explain why Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller, Republican Albuquerque City Councilor Dan Lewis and former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon and Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson are the top four tier candidates.

Despite all the Mayoral forums held, the local press has been somewhat dormant on covering the race and coverage has been very skimpy.

At least three televised debates have been scheduled.

A 36% for undecided voters should not be a major surprise seeing as very little has happened when it comes to the candidates spending major amounts of money on campaign TV and radio commercials and printed materials except for Brian Colon.

In the KRQE report, UNM Political Science Professor Gabe Sanchez suggested that Tim Keller, because Keller registered 22% in the poll, which was twice as much as each of the next two candidates, that it is “plausible” for Keller to get to 50% and avoid a runoff.

Expecting that there will be no runoff is very wishful thinking given the numbers presented and the fact that the poll was taken before political commercials had begun to run.

Many political pundits and insiders were expecting Mr. Keller to have at least 30% or more in the KRQE poll given his high name recognition as State Auditor, his very considerable support within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, his endorsements and the substantial union contributions to his measured finance committee or PAC.

Had Keller done better at say 35% in the poll and not the 22% he garnered, avoiding a runoff would have been plausible.

Based on the KRQE poll, it is likely Tim Keller will be in the runoff but it is not likely he will get more than 50% to avoid a runoff.

Republicans Dan Lewis at 11%, Wayne Johnson at 8% and Ricardo Chavez at 5% are dividing up the conservative Republican vote, with Wayne Johnson increasing his criticism of Lewis and within striking distance of overtaking Dan Lewis and giving Johnson the possibility to reach the runoff.

I suspect the combined 24% of the poll numbers reflected by Lewis, Johnson and Chaves are highly reliable conservative voters, most likely Trump supporters, but if none of these three make it into the runoff, the real question raised is will their voters sit out the runoff election and not vote for any Democrat?

Expect campaign spending on commercials to change dramatically, and it has already started.

Brian Colon ran TV commercials all last week featuring Attorney General Hector Balderas endorsing him, with no other candidate running commercials.

The Balderas endorsement was critical to help Colon solidify the Hispanic vote as well as the more traditional wing of the Democratic Party in order offset the progressive wing of the Democratic party which is supporting Keller.

The Colon commercials began running after the poll was taken and the effect of those commercials is probably not reflected in the KRQE poll.

Tim Keller this week started 15 second commercials, but given the amount of public finance money he has remaining, the ad will get limited play.

Over the next four weeks, a considerable amount of money will be spent on radio, tv, phone banking and door to door canvassing.

According to the August 11, 2017 Campaign Finance Reports, following are the closing balances for each of the candidates available for advertising and their campaigns:

Brian Colon – $535,579.82
Ricardo Chaves – $373,228
Tim Keller – $227,229.00
Tim Keller Measured Finance Committee – $77,172.00
Wayne Johnson – $207,770
Dan Lewis – $169,600
Michell Garcia Holmes – $33,300
Susan Wheeler Dieshel – $5,955.23
Gus Pedrotty – $3,091

The candidates have no doubt spent and raised more money during the last month and the next fiancé reports are due September 10, 2017.

A wild card is if money will be raised and spent to run highly negative ads against anyone of the four major candidates, which is more likely against the front runner Keller.

As is the case with any election, voter turnout will be critical.

Early voting also starts on September 13, 2017 and the candidates need to double down on media.

The mandatory sick leave initiative will also be on the ballot and just may increase voter turnout, but that will cut both ways as having the potential to increase voter turnout of progressives and conservatives.

A coalition of 27 business organizations has been formed to oppose the mandatory sick leave initiative and has raised over $100,000 to oppose it and you can expect more and an aggressive campaign to defeat it as was done with the “soda tax” in Santa Fe.

From a historical standpoint, municipal elections are very low voter turnout with between 20% and 25%.

The reliable municipal voters tend to be 50 years and older and conservative.

Four years ago, only 19% of eligible voters voted in the lowest voter turnout since 1977.

You can count on negative advertising to be initiated against anyone of the four front runners which will no doubt have an impact on the race because negative advertising works.

http://www.freeabq.com/2017/09/05/free-press-appeal/

For the last few months, the ALB Free Press has published a number of my blog columns without any charge on my part except me expressing my appreciation. The ALB Free press during the last three years has filled the void created by the Albuquerque Journal and news station’s failure to cover stories that hold our elected officials accountable and responsible. It would be a damn shame if the Alb Free Press no longer publishes. I for one hope people will come forward and help by contacting dennis@freeabq.com or calling (505)306-3260 or (505) 200-2410.

Below is an open letter from the Alb Free Press published September 4, 2017 that I hope people will share and read:

OPEN LETTER TO READERS OF THE ALB FREE PRESS

It has become apparent to the publisher of ABQ Free Press that advertising support for our news product does not exist and will not exist in the foreseeable future.

What Will It Take For ABQ Free Press To Survive?
If you think you can help, write us at dennis@freeabq.com

BY DAN VUKELICH

ABQ Free Press needs your input as we prepare to make a decision on whether this independent local news outlet can survive.

It has become apparent to the publisher of ABQ Free Press that advertising support for our news product does not exist and will not exist in the foreseeable future.

In the three-plus years since the first issue of ABQ Free Press rolled off the presses on April 23, 2014, we’ve had six advertising sales managers — none of whom could move the needle to bring us anywhere near profitability.

Some of them said we were “too edgy” and that potential advertisers wanted us to be less confrontational or that we were too “negative”.

(For the record, Mayor Richard Berry’s administration long ago stopped informing us of news conferences, significant announcements or availabilities by top city officials — all of which has hindered our access to news and sources.)

At the recommendation of our last advertising manager, we tweaked the newspaper’s layout and boosted our entertainment coverage to make the paper more saleable, although we resisted her entreaties to emulate the Weekly Alibi because, in our opinion, one Alibi is more than enough.

In the end we were forced to stop publishing a printed newspaper. The end to ABQ Free Press as a free weekly came last March 15.

We were and are being read. During its life, the print run of the newspaper varied from 20,000 and 60,000. For most issues, we printed 25,000 to 35,000 copies. Returns more or less held steady at a little less than 10 percent at our 400-plus locations from Belen to Santa Fe.

Through data we gathered during periodic online reader polls, we saw our reader demographic get younger and better, with a majority of our readers falling into the 25 to 54 age group sought by advertisers.

Not that it helped pay the bills, but we’re proud to note that the newspaper won dozens of journalism awards, including top honors in statewide and multi-state newspaper contests for investigative reporting, news reporting, analysis, columns, editorial writing and page design.

If we had to pick a label, we’d call ourselves progressive. Readers continue to tell us that we fill a void in the political spectrum between the conservative and establishmentarian Albuquerque Journal and the liberal but often-vapid Alibi which, despite periodically laying off its staff en masse, somehow manages to survive.

Over our life, we have focused on several core issues we believe are our raison d’etre: pointing out the incompetence of the leadership of the Albuquerque Police Department; understanding the causes of APD violence, which is not unrelated to the previous point; understanding the causes of our city’s crime wave (also related); interpreting the upheaval of health care; understanding the causes of our poor economy; demanding government transparency and accountability, especially at City Hall; and exposing the remarkable short-sightedness of the Richard J. Berry’s Albuquerque Rapid Transit project.

Now, it’s clear that despite the cost reductions realized in March following our transition to an online-only news product, and despite this site’s growing visitation and mushrooming social media following, advertising revenue remains maddeningly elusive.

Which brings us to the point of this letter:

If you are among the thousands of people who have told us over the years that you value what we do, we need your guidance on whether a shift from ABQ Free Press away from an advertising revenue model to a voluntary subscription revenue model is possible.
What would you be willing to pay to support this news outlet? How often would you be willing to pay for it? How many of you are out there? If we’re missing something in our slimmed-down online coverage that might sway you, what would that be?

What we’re asking is: Tell us whether you see a path to survival for us. The times are that dire. Time is short.

Dan Vukelich is the senior editor of ABQ Free Press. He began the groundwork for publishing ABQ Free Press in the summer of 2013. Save for tweeting about the latest outrage from President Donald Trump, he stepped back from a daily role in the organization last April.

The Albuquerque Journal did another Sunday front page article on Albuquerque’s crime wave this time concentrating exclusively on the Southeast ABQ area reporting how beleaguered residents want the area cleaned up and are the victims of chronic crime.

(See September 3, 2017 Albuquerque Journal “LIVING DANGEROUSLY; Beleaguered residents wants Southeast ABQ area cleaned up”, page A-1)

The first two sentences of the story set the tone:

“A trip down the dusty sunbaked streets of what the city of Albuquerque has optimistically named the “International District” reveals an area awash in drug deals, fast food trash and discarded needles. It’s common knowledge to the residents of this area that many still call the “War Zone” that it is in the midst of a crime epidemic.”

The Albuquerque Journal did an accompanying article on all the candidates for Mayor and how crime reduction will be their top priority if elected.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1055481/crime-is-top-priority-for-mayoral-candidates-2.html

What is amazing is that the Albuquerque Journal did a front-page story on the crime in Southeast area of the city and failed to get any comment what so ever from the Mayor, the Chief Administrative Officer and the Chief of Police on what they have done over the years or intend to do to bring down crime in the area.

But then again why ask them what they have done when the answer is “absolutely nothing”.

None of the candidates for Mayor were asked about what they will do to bring down crime in the Southeast area.

It is interesting, but not at all surprising, how the Berry Administration makes a big production about their crime reduction efforts in the downtown business area but pretty much ignores the most vulnerable people who are victims of crime in the poorest area of the city.

EXTENT OF THE PROBLEMS

What was depressing is the following paragraph in the Journal article:

“While only 6.7 percent of Albuquerque’s population lives in the area bounded roughly by Carlisle and Eubank and Lomas and Gibson, the residents experienced at least 27 percent of the city’s murders between 2014 and 2016. And more than 10 percent of the 12,444 addresses in the area have experienced one or more incidents involving violent crime. Theft is rampant, too: One if four addresses have reported a property crime in the past three years. In these neighborhoods, daily life regularly intersects with crime on the streets.”

According to a recent study, in the past three years, the biggest and most violent area of the city is the area roughly from Carlisle to Eubank and from Lomas to Gibson and that part of city accounted for 27 percent of the murders, 20 percent of carjacking’s and 37 percent of nonfatal shootings.

(See August 11, 2017 Albuquerque Journal, page A-1, “The 5 most violent areas to live in Albuquerque”)

The Southeast area of the city has some of our most vulnerable citizens.

The Albuquerque Journal story does not mention that the Southwest area of the city has the highest poverty rate, highest unemployment rate, the highest percentage of illicit drug arrests, the highest high school dropout rates in the city, many factors that contribute to high crime rates.

Highland High School has one of the lowest graduation rates in the city at 49% and the highest dropout rate of any high school.

The Southeast area also has the highest rate of rental units with government subsidized housing as well as many “substandard” properties which many people would classify as “slumlord” properties.

When I was with the city from 2001 to 2009, I saw way too many slumlords property owners in the area charging top dollar to rent their properties to some of our poorest and most vulnerable citizens.

Many slumlords refuse to make repairs when needed, even when the health and safety of tenants were at risk, with many tenants reluctant to complain to slumlords for repairs for fear of eviction.

There is a sizable percentage of minorities and people of color who live in the Southeast area including the city’s largest percentage of undocumented or non-United State citizens who live in the area.

It is common knowledge within the immigrant community that undocumented residents are afraid to call law enforcement when they are victimized fearing they may be arrested by United States Customs and Immigration and deported.

What is so very disappointing is that there was an eight (8) year period from 2001 to 2009 where considerable progress was made to bring down crime in the International District, clean up the neighborhoods and make the area safer.

“WEED AND SEED” FEDERAL PROGRAM

From 2001 to 2009, the city and neighborhood activists worked closely with the United States Department of Justice and the United States Attorney’s Office and secured federal grants known as the “Weed and Seed” program.

The U.S. Department of Justice’s “Weed and Seed” program was an innovative and comprehensive approach to law enforcement and community revitalization with the ultimate goal to prevent and control violent crime, drug abuse, and gang activity in targeted areas.

The program attempted to “weed out” violent crime, gang activity, and drug use and trafficking in target areas, and then “seed” the target area by restoring the neighborhood through social and economic revitalization.

The Federal “Weed and Seed” program had three major objectives:

(1) develop a comprehensive, multiagency strategy to control and prevent violent crime, drug trafficking, and drug-related crime in target neighborhoods;
(2) coordinate and integrate existing and new initiatives to concentrate resources and maximize their impact on reducing and preventing violent crime, drug trafficking, and gang activity; and
(3) mobilize community residents in the target areas to assist law enforcement in identifying and removing violent offenders and drug traffickers from the community and to assist other human service agencies in identifying and responding to service needs of the target area.

By all accounts, the federal “Weed and Seed” program was a success.

All the funding for the “Weed and Seed” program is now gone and the Southeast area has deteriorated immensely.

COMMUNITY ACTIVISM AND INVESTMENT MADE A DIFFERENCE

The Southeast Heights neighborhood associations and area community activists became so enraged at one time with the amount of crime in the area that they organized and did actual “marches to take back the neighborhood” and protest properties that had become “magnets” for crime and demanding that action be taken by the city.

The Albuquerque Police Department use to target the area with “sweeps” and law enforcement tactical plans utilizing its specialized units.

The city’s Safe City Strike Force also targeted hundreds of properties, both residential and commercial in the International District and took civil enforcement action against the properties.

The city’s Planning Department secured federal grants upwards of $1 million dollars for clean ups and board ups of substandard properties by the Safe City Strike Force that were designated as blighted properties.

The Safe City Strike Force took action against violent bars in the area on Central that were magnets for crime.

Many Central bars have hundreds of calls for service a year placing a drain on law enforcement resources.

A few of the bars located on or near Central that were closed or torn down by the Safe City Strike Force include the Blue Spruce Bar, Rusty’s Cork and Bottle, the Last Chance.

Another program that was initiated by the city was the “Metropolitan Redevelopment Pilot Project” for the Southeast area of the city.

The City’s Family and Community Services Department secured funding for the purchase of real property that was designated as “blighted” under federal standards and considered substandard.

The residential real property was purchased at “fair market” value without any city condemnation and substandard structures leveled and the property cleared and then sold for redevelopment.

There were entire areas that were cleared in the Southeast heights and where multi-residential units were constructed, including for low income and subsidized housing.

PROGRESS GONE

For the last eight years, little to nothing has been done by the City of Albuquerque to address the serious crime problem in the Southeast area with crime rates spinning out of control.

Eight years later, virtually all the progress to bring down the crime in the Southeast area and clean up neighborhoods is virtually long gone.

The Albuquerque Police Department is seriously understaffed in it felony units and unable to do tactical plans and “sweeps” on a consistent and sustained manner in the Southeast area.

APD has only 430 sworn police in field services handling calls for service throughout the city and on three shifts.

There are many times reported that there are only seven or eight sworn police officers patrolling the Southeast area command in a shift.

CONLCUSION

For eight (8) years, the Albuquerque Journal and news outlets have failed to hold the administration accountable in any meaningful way regarding our crime rates.

All the candidates for Mayor have come up with crime reduction plans, but only a few discuss the underlying causes of crime.

I am very curious that once the new Mayor is elected, will that person be “hands on” and willing to get their hands dirty and make the necessary tough decisions to get things done when it comes to APD, bring our crime rates down and not just blame our judicial system.

December 1, 2017 cannot come too soon with the swearing in of a new Mayor and the appointment of a new Chief Administrative Officer and new Chief of Police.