It has been reported $2.2 million has been raised by the candidates running for Mayor who are privately financed and the measured finance committees trying to affect the outcome of the mayoral race.

(See September 30, 2017 Albuquerque Journal, page “2.2 Million raised in Alb Mayor Race; candidates with the most cash lead race”)

https://www.abqjournal.com/1071208/22m-raised-in-abq-mayoral-campaign-excerpt-candidates-with-the-most-cash-lead-race.html

The $2.2 million does not include the $508,000 that Ricardo Chaves gave his own campaign before pulling out of the race and it does not include the $343,000 given to Tim Keller the only public financed candidate.

If you add it all up, at least $3,055,000 has been spent thus far in the Mayor’s race before the October 3, 2017 election.

In all four of the polls taken and made public by news agencies, Tim Keller, Brain Colón, Dan Lewis and Wayne Johnson are the top four candidates in the mayor’s race, with all the other candidates trailing in single digit poll numbers.

The candidates who have spent the most cash in the race lead in virtually all the polls in the eight (8) person race.

Brian Colón, an attorney and private attorney and former Democratic Party Chairman raised nearly $824,000 for his mayoral run according to campaign finance reports filed with the city clerk.

According to the finance reports filed with the city clerk:

Democrat Brain Colón has spent $798,000 and had $25,600 in the bank with additional amounts raised.

Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis has raised more than $555,000 and had $32,000 still available to spend.

Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson has raise $341,000 in campaign cash and still has $11,000 left.

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller received $380,000 in public finance dollars and other “in-kind” cash donations and had only $500 left.

Independent and retired APD Police Detective Michelle Garcia Holmes raised nearly $45,000 in contributions and has about $9,800 left.

Democrat and recent UNM graduate Gus Pedrotty raised $17,500 and has $4,800 left.

Independent and co-founder of Urban ABQ Susan Wheeler-Deichsel received contributions of $13,000 in contributions and had a negative balance of $1,500 as reflected in the last reports.

Two measured finance committees have also raised and spent significant amounts of money on media:

1. ABQ Forward Together, which has been backed by numerous city unions, raised $360,000 to support Tim Keller’s bid with the committee having $37,000.

2. Make Albuquerque Safe, a committee backed by the owner of the Santolina development on the west side, raised $60,000 from two major donors each donating $30,000 to oppose Tim Keller and had spent all but $5,700 of the amount raised.

When you review the expenditures in the fiancé reports of the top four (4) candidates, most of the money raised has been spent on television ads, printed campaign materials and research and polling but more than a significant amount spent on political consultants has been spent.

Review of the fifth and final Campaign Finance Report for Mayor before the election and filed on September 29, 2017 with the City Clerk for the reporting period of September 8, 2017 to September 28, 2017, reflect the following for each of the four (4) top candidates:

TIM KELLER CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

Democrat Tim Keller is the only “publicly finance” candidate for Mayor.

The Keller September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $13,958.36 and that $13,458 was spent and the closing balance for the reporting period is $500.

Notable expenditures for the Tim Keller campaign include $3,000 to PUTMAN PARTNERS of Washington, DC for “MEDIA”, and $3,000, $1,235, $5,000, $935, and $692 to RIO STATEGIES, Alan Packman, the longtime political consultants for Mr. Keller, for Professional Services.

It is expected Mr. Keller will be in the runoff and his campaign will be given approximately $126,000 more in public finance funds.

BRIAN COLON CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Colon September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $114,175 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is $25,644 and spent $125,142 during the reporting period.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions and reported in the September 22, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Brian Colon for Mayor include the following donors: $5,000 from Lance Hough, $4,800 from Alicia Gardner, $2,500 from Jonathan Jaramillo, $2,350 from Roy Benson, $1,000 each from Alfred Martin, Samantha Adams, attorney Ahmad Assad, and Bruce Mallot.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Brian Colon for Mayor include $99,075 Paid to CANAL Partners Media of Atlanta, Georgia for “media” and $25,000 paid to Bouchard Golds Communication of Austin, Texas.

DAN LEWIS CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Dan Lewis September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $84,878.80 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is $32,280.12 and expenditures of $71,630.68 during the reporting period.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions and reported in the September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Dan Lewis for Mayor include the following donors at $1,000 each: Kelly Martinez, Nick Casale, K&J Ventures, Molly Martinez and David Chavez.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Dan Lewis for Mayor campaign include $5,000, $16,798 paid to Stoneridge Group and $11,000 paid to Medium Buying.

WAYNE JOHNSON CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS AND EXPENDITURES

The Wayne Johnson September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report states that the cash balance from the last reporting period was $109,248.55 and the closing balance for the recent reporting period is $11,008.08 and $116,687.97 was spent during the reporting period.

Notable individuals or businesses that made cash contributions and reported in the September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for Wayne Johnson for Mayor include the following donors: $2,500 from Clines Corners Operating Company, $2,500 from TBIRD, Inc, $2,596 from John Bode, Bode Aviation, $2,500 from Steve Chavez, $1,000 from Doug Clark.

In kind donations to Wayne Johnson for legal service include attorney Pat Rodgers and the Wilson Law Firm (Alan Wilson), $1,848.

Notable expenditures listed in the September 29, 2017 Campaign Finance Report for the Wayne Johnson for Mayor include $28,000 and $24,776 to Direct Edge and $61,780 to SRCP Media.

CONCLUSION

Election day is Tuesday, October 3, 2017.

If none of the eight (8) candidates on the ballot secures 50% of the vote, which is expected based on recent polls, a runoff will be held between the two top vote getters.

The runoff is scheduled for Tuesday, November 14, 2017.

The new Mayor of Albuquerque will be sworn in on December 1, 2017.

Since September 5, 2017, there have been five (5) opinion polls taken in the Mayor’s race that have been made public.

THE KRQE POLL

On September 5, 2017 KRQE reported the first poll in the 2017 Mayor’s race.
(http://krqe.com/2017/09/05/krqe-poll-albuquerque-voters-weigh-options-for-mayor-cite-crime-as-top-concern/)

The KRQE poll was one of 500 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 5% which reduces accuracy.

The KRQE poll was taken before any of the candidates began to spend on radio and tv commercials.

KRQE reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 11%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 10%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 6%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%
UNDECIDED: 36%

The biggest winner in the KRQE poll, as with the two subsequent polls, was “undecided” at 36% or over one third of those polled still being undecided with the poll taken four weeks before the election.

The KOB CHANNEL 4 POLL:

On September 8, 2017 KOB reported a second poll.

http://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/mayoral-election-race-carroll-strategies-polling-albuquerque/4597439/?cat=500

The poll was conducted by Carol Strategies on September 3, 4, and 5, 2017.

The poll was one of 513 likely registered voters conducted by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 4.3%.

KOB reported each of the candidates polled as follows:

Democrat State Auditor Tim Keller – 22.6%
Former Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon – 19.3%
Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 7.8%
Republican County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7.8%
Independent retired APD Police Officer Michell Garcia-Holmes – 5.8%
Republican businessman Ricardo Chavez – 3.5%
Democrat Gus Pedrotty – 1.9%
Independent Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1.8%
UNDECIDED: 30%

The biggest winner in the KOB poll was again “undecided” at 30% as compared to the 36% of undecided in the KRQE poll reported just one day earlier and the Journal poll at 32%.

FIRST ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL

On Sunday, September 17, 2017, the Albuquerque Journal released its first poll by well-known pollster Brain Sanderoff with Research & Polling, with a 4% margin of error.

(See September 17,2017 Albuquerque Journal, page A-1, “Journal poll: Keller leads, but runoff almost certain”)

Following are the results of the September 17, 2017 Albuquerque Journal poll:

• Democrat first term New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller – 25%
• Former state Democratic Party Chairman and private attorney Brian Colón – 14%
• Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 13%
• Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 7%
• Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes, a retired Albuquerque police detective – 4%
• Democrat Augustus “Gus” Pedrotty, recent UNM graduate – 3%
• Republican Ricardo Chaves and founder of Parking Company of America – 1%
• Independent Susan Wheeler-Deichsel and founder of the civic group Urban ABQ – 1%
UNDECIDED: 32%

THE PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (PPP) POLL

On September 28, 2017, the democrat leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) was made public by political blogger Joe Monahan.

Following are the complete PPP survey percentages as reported by Joe Monahan:

Democrat Tim Keller – 33%
Republican Dan Lewis- 17%
Democrat Brian Colon – 16%
Republican Wayne Johnson – 14%
Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes – 4%
Democrat Gus Pedroty – 4%
Republican Ricardo Chavez – 1%
Indpendant Susan Wheeler Diechel – 1%
UNDECIDED: 10%

On Sunday, October 1, 2017, the Albuquerque Journal released its second poll two days before the election by well-known pollster Brain Sanderoff with Research & Polling, with a 4% margin of error.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1071495/keller-leads-lewis-in-second-excerpt-runoff-still-likely-with-close-race-possible-for-second-spot.html

Following are the results of the October 1, 2017 Albuquerque Journal poll:

• Democrat first term New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller – 29%
• Former state Democratic Party Chairman and private attorney Brian Colón – 14%
• Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis – 18%
• Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson – 10%
• Independent Michelle Garcia Holmes, a retired Albuquerque police detective – 4%
• Democrat Augustus “Gus” Pedrotty, recent UNM graduate – 4%
• Republican Ricardo Chaves and founder of Parking Company of America – 1%
• Independent Susan Wheeler-Deichsel and founder of the civic group Urban ABQ – 1%
UNDECIDED: 18%

GUT WRENCHING POLLS

What always makes me laugh is when the press and the politicos call the polls “scientific” believing the hype of the accuracy of the polls.

If Donald Trump proved anything by getting elected President it is that the political consultants and polls are nothing but a cottage industry fueled by the ambitions of career politicians and talking heads.

The Sunday, October 1, 2017 Albuquerque Journal banner, top of the fold headline, boldly claimed that Dan Lewis is in second with 18%.

The headline should have read “Lewis and Undecided Tied For Second” with each getting 18% in the Journal poll.

The PPP poll said that there was 10% undecided while the Journal poll says 18%.

By any measure, 18% undecided is still very high and can change the outcome of the race.

But then again, Lewis is one of the two the Albuquerque Journal endorsed just last week and I presume that Keller will never be endorsed by the Journal.

The Journal reported that Tim Keller increased his lead by 4% from 25% to 29% in its own two polls which has a margin of error of 4%, but the PPP polls proclaimed that Keller was at 33%, an 8% increase from the Journal’s first poll.

The PPP poll was done by a Democrat leaning pollster which may explain the results, at least in part.

COMMENTARY AND FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Having been on the receiving end of political polls, I cannot tell you just how discouraging it is because negative polls do have an emotional impact not only on a candidate but their supporters and donors.

Donors once they see low poll numbers quickly become very reluctant to donate.

Voters too often change their mind when they see low poll numbers.

Please imagine going through a brutal campaign for a year or more, enduring constant criticism from all sides, being attacked with lies and smears in private and on the internet, knocking yourself out emotionally, trying to raise money, gather signatures to get on the ballot, exposing your family to emotional hardships, taking time away from your family, not to mention dealing with news reporters trying to make a name for themselves or sell papers and increase TV ratings, and a poll is released one or two days before and election telling you all what you did has been a waste of time for you.

Many political pollsters, consultants and the press know full well that their political polls all too often become self-fulling prophesies, even when all such polls are only of a few hundred people.

It is my belief that the press do the voting public a real disservice when they reveal the results of polls so close to an election and report them as news instead of letting people decide on their own and just let them go and vote.

Polls reduce elections to nothing more than high school popularity contests and to hell with the issues, and we wonder why voter turnouts are so low.

Why bother even having elections and having campaigns when we can all just save a lot of time, save millions, emotions, arguments and hurt feelings, do a poll, and swear in the person who comes in first, that way we would have sworn in Hillary Clinton as President.

Then again, it just might be a clever idea, given who we have as President.

To the candidates, press on, ignore the polls, do your best and know full well there is life and indeed happiness after an election.