The local news media consisting of the Albuquerque Journal and all 3 TV News stations failed to report that on April 13, 2020, on a unanimous vote of 9-0, the Albuquerque City Council enacted R-20-31 which is the city’s operating budget for fiscal year 2020-2021. On April 15, Resolution R-20-31 was sent to the Mayor for signature. The resolution was sponsored by City Councilor Isaac Benton by request of the Keller Administration. The new budget cycle begins July 1, 2020 and ends June 30, 2021.

The approach to enact the 2020-2021 city budget was a dramatic departure from all previous years. The City Budget process is a “performance based” budget where each department prepares an analysis of accomplishments from the previous years. The statistics and accomplishment analysis is submitted to the City Council in the Mayor’s proposed budget. Normally, a massive detailed budget analysis document, called the Mayor’s Proposed Budget, is submitted along with the enabling legislation making the city budgetary appropriations. The council, acting as a committee as a whole, normally schedules and conducts hearings on each of the City Departments, but that did happen this year. The operative word is “normally”.

City finances, not to mention state finances, have been totally upended as a result of the corona virus pandemic and its impact on the city economy and in turn city gross receipts tax returns. On March 16, 2020, the New Mexico Department of Finance, Local Government Division, issued Memorandum authorizing the New Mexico municipalities to submit their last year’s fiscal budget for 2019-2020 budget as their fiscal budget for year 2020-2021 until reliable tax revenue projections can be determined. That is exactly what the City Council did. The City Council’s operating budget, R-20-31, enacted is a “bare bones budget” resolution consisting of only 7 pages of line item appropriations for each of the city departments with no explanation or elaboration on the actual use of the millions appropriated. No public hearings were conducted that would have allowed comment and input from the public.

According to budget Resolution R 20-31, the estimation of future New Mexico Gross Receipts Tax, Lodgers’ Tax and other revenue sources will need to be assessed before a detailed budget can be prepared and enacted by the City Council. The full impact of the Public Health Orders issued by the Governor and the Mayor on local non-essential businesses reducing tax revenues is still unknown.

The single and most critical function of the Albuquerque City Council is the oversight authority it has over city finances, all appropriations and the job performance of the various departments. The oversight authority includes having public hearings on the city’s budget to allow public the opportunity to give input on how the city spends taxpayer money. Further, the budget process is critical to force all city departments to justify their budgets and to adjust department’s budgets as the need mandates it. The 2020-2021 budget year does not begin until July 1, 2020, yet the city council felt it was necessary to enact an operating budget on April 13, without any public hearings, essentially refusing to exercise their budgetary oversight authority and ignoring the general public.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Below in the postscript to this blog article can be found a nutshell summary of how city financing works and a summary of Resolution R-20-31 listing the major department line item budgets along with a link to the enacted budget.

CITY REVENUES DECLINE DRAMATICALLY

During the April 7 City Council meeting Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Sanjay Bhakta told the city council that the city is faced with a gaping budget hole due to the anticipated reduction in tax revenues and said the budget process was “going to be brutal”. According to Bhakta, the City is spending $100,000 per day on its response to the corona virus. The expenses include employee overtime, cleaning supplies and “information technology” programs. The corona virus has yet to peak in Albquerque, and the daily expenses will go up before they go down and there is no way of determining when the health crisis will end.

The biggest problem is not the daily expenses to the city is facing. Its anticipated that the city’s budget will take a major hit in the form of lost tax revenue in gross receipts tax. A whopping 67% of the City’s general fund revenues is from its share of gross receipts tax collected by the state. It is the general fund that is used to finance basic essential services such as police, fire and street maintenance and other basic city services.

Bhakta reported that the lodgers tax revenues are also down and in March came in at 29% lower than the same date last year. A decline in lodger tax revenues can be blamed on the hotel industry’s more recent struggles and decline in room occupancy. Bhakta said he’s concerned that what has happened with the lodger’s tax may also happen with gross receipts tax.

City ordinance requires adequate reserve for each fiscal year to deal with unexpected contingencies. CFO Bhakta reported to the City Council the city does have a slight cushion of upwards $50 million in operating reserves set aside due to higher-than-expected gross receipts tax revenue over the past 7 months, but it’s not enough to absorb the expected losses in revenues. The challenge is having an adequate reserve for the fiscal year that begins July 1.

SERIOUS DEFICIT ANNOUNCED

On Friday, April 17, Mayor Tim Keller and his Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Sanjay Bhakta announced that the City of Albuquerque has projected a serious budget shortfall that could last through 2021. Bhakta said preliminary estimates indicate the city will bring in $600 million in revenue this fiscal year, down from the $627 million projected. The city currently operates on a $1 billion budget and that is about to change dramatically. At a minimum, the City is facing a $27 million deficit of projected revenues for the fiscal year that starts July 1, 2020, and it will likely be more.

According to Keller and Bhakta, the city is taking immediate steps to lessen the impact of the budget crisis by implementing the following:

The city is limiting all hiring, with the exception of public safety
All travel for the remainder of the year is canceled
All city contracts with vendors are being reviewed and cut if necessary
And the mayor has ordered his department heads to find cost-saving measures

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/city-of-albuquerque-faces-budget-shortfall-due-to-covid-19-crisis/5703446/

The cost saving measures have reduced spending in the current fiscal year by $10 million, but the cost saving measures are not enough and there is still a $17 million deficit. According to Bhata, the city’s revenue declines will keep mounting in fiscal year 2021, which begins July 1. Bhakta’s projections have revenue falling to $575 million next year and he added:

“It can change, we don’t know the real numbers. … The revenue impact may be much sharper than we think.”

If the reduced revenue projects become reality, furloughs and layoffs of government employees will have to be considered and are likely. The effects of layoffs and furloughs has a ripple effect on city government services such as reduced or cancellation bus services, reduce operating hours or closures of libraries, museums and the zoo and the cancellation of all city social events like Summer Fest.

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL FOR FEDERAL BAILOUT; MISUSE OF FEDERAL FUNDS REPORTED

During the April 7 meeting of the Albuquerque City Council, CFO Bhakta, told the council that the City is spending about $100,000 per day on its response to the corona virus. According to Bhakta, the expenses include employee overtime, cleaning supplies and “information technology” programs. The corona virus has yet to peak, and the daily expenses will go up before they go down.

The City’s budget decisions are hinging on federal relief money. The $2 Trillion Corona virus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) is money Congress approved for local governments to be spent directly on COVID-19 efforts. City is estimating it will qualify for about $150 million in relief, but that amount is not guaranteed. If the city is allowed to use the CARES Act funds for city services, it can avoid furloughs and layoffs within the 6,000 city employee ranks, but that is a big if.

The problem is the CARES Act limits the money’s use to “costs that are necessary expenditures incurred due to the coronavirus public health emergency between March 1 and December 30”. The CARES Act specifically precludes local governments from using it to pay costs already in budgets. Currently the city is spending up to $100,000 a day on corona virus In other words, the federal relief money cannot be used to plug deficit holes in budgets like Mayor Keller wants.

https://www.koat.com/article/city-workers-could-be-furloughed-if-feds-dont-come-through/32192675

Confidential sources are reporting that federal relief money is being applied to executive salaries in the Mayor’s Office arguing that the Mayor’s office is working on dealing with the corona virus issues. If that is the case, the City just may wind up being audited for misuse of funds on line items already contained in the budget, such as administrative and executive salaries, in violation of federal guidelines as to what uses the financing is appropriate.

Before the pandemic outbreak, the city reported it had a $5 million surplus. City leaders were looking at giving all city employees raises and that is no longer the case.

According to Mayor Keller replacing lost taxes revenues is more important financially than giving the city money for necessary expenditures incurred due to coronavirus. According to Mayor Keller:

“If we don’t receive assistance from … [federal and state government], then we’re going to be in a very difficult place and we are going to have to look at things like layoffs and furloughs.”

Bkakta for his part had this to say:

“If we don’t get the money from the federal government to fill the hole of the revenue decline, we will have to think about furloughs. … We want to avoid that. … It’s going to be brutal.”

Mayor Keller and CFO Bhakta said a major lobbying effort is underway to allow local governments the leeway to use the relief money for government operations and not just expenditures incurred due to coronavirus. Keller went so far as to say the city would be willing to go to court to fight for the flexibility, a bold threat that is more bluster than reality.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1444984/city-hopes-federal-relief-money-can-prevent-furloughs-layoffs.html

City finance has upwards of $50 million in its Reserve Fund which could be used to make up the $27 million deficit. However, dipping into the city’s reserve fund will affect the city’s bond ratings reducing the type of bonds or amounts and interest rates the city can qualify for to fund major construction projects. City council approval is required to dip into the reserve fund.

HOPING THE ECONOMY BOUNCES BACK

The Keller Administration expects the economy will bounce back this summer. If it does, and if the City can use the federal CARES Act allocation to make up for the city deficit, it should be able to avoid drastic cuts, furloughs and layoffs. Local economists are not that optimistic and are saying it could take years for the cities to recover.

UNM Associate Professor Reilly White had this to say:

“It’s a really dire fiscal position for many municipalities in New Mexico for the coming year … The best thing that can happen is that people start spending again.”

The Department of Labor reports that 44,000 New Mexicans now receiving unemployment benefits, and the applications are increasing. According to the Department of Labor, 90,000 people have applied for benefits in the past four weeks.

https://www.koat.com/article/city-workers-could-be-furloughed-if-feds-dont-come-through/32192675

https://www.abqjournal.com/1444984/city-hopes-federal-relief-money-can-prevent-furloughs-layoffs.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

A. HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF

City Hall history is repeating itself. It was 10 years ago in 2010 that the city had to make significant cuts in order to deal with the “great recession”. Then Republican Mayor Richard J. Berry had a $69 million shortfall and he decided unilaterally to cut city employee pay by 3%, disregard negotiated union contract pay increases with the city’s unions, place a freeze on all hiring and reduced and slashed city services not considered essential such as the 311-call center. The number of APD sworn officers went from 1,100 in 2010 all the way down to 875 under Mayor Berry and community based policing was abandoned and existed in name only.

For the full 8 years under the former Republican Mayor Administration, the city was hit hard because of the great recession to the extent that essential services were dramatically cut and city and government was dramatically downsized. The cuts and downsizing were done in order to avoid any all tax increases to maintain Mayor Berry’s Republican philosophy that all tax increases are bad, even when needed for essential services, and that city government was too big and needed to be downsized.

B. DIFFICULT DECISIONS AHEAD

Just as the city was pulling out of the 10-year great recession, the city gets hit and get hit hard in the gut with the corona virus pandemic resulting in business closures, layoffs and a dramatic decrease in gross receipts tax revenues that funds 67% of the city’s operating budget. The city is now facing a major financial crisis.

Mayor Tim Keller and the Albuquerque City Council are about to embark on a very painful but absolutely necessary reduction in government services and expenditures to deal with the major deficit caused by a dramatic reduction in gross receipts tax revenues. The City’s loss of gross receipts tax revenues obviously was brought on by the corona virus shutdown of businesses and resulting loss of gross receipts tax revenues, but the Keller Administration pinning their hopes on a quick rebound or federal funding is being way too optimistic and may not be at all realistic, nor is a threat of a lawsuite to use federal CAREs funding for items in the existing budget.

The City is mandated by law to have a balanced‐budget. When you review in the postscript the General Fund line item expenditures contained in the enacted budget operating budget, you get a sense how difficult of a task the Mayor and City Council are faced with when it comes to cutting or eliminating entire line item appropriations.

The city is now faced with any number of options or a combination thereof including:

1. Slashing department budgets across the board by a mandatory percentage to “spread the pain”. Mayor Keller has already ordered his department heads to find cost-saving measures.

2. Eliminate entire none essential city service departments, city divisions or units.

3. Reduce city services in some form.

4. Closure of city facilities such as libraries, senior citizen centers, golf courses and recreational activities and cancellation of major public events such as Summerfest.

5. Freeze all hiring over the next year.

6. Layoffs or furloughs of government workers and elimination and funding of city positions.

7. Delay for a time all city construction projects that will result in need to hire more city staff. Such projects would include the $32 million homeless shelter, the planned $7 million library for the International District, the new Singing Arrow Community Center in Southeast Albuquerque, the West Side community center at 98th and DeVargas and the new field at the Jennifer Riordan Spark Kindness Sports Complex.

8. Suspend all salary increases or implement salary deductions to the 6,000 city employees.

9. Postpone growing the police and fire department ranks and concentrate on police and fire academy classes for the sole purpose of keeping up with retirements and maintaining the existing number of the ranks before retirements

10. Increase gross receipts tax.

11. Increase property taxes.

12. Increase admission fees to museums, the Zoo and Botanical Gardens and Aquarium, golf fees.

13. A combination of all cost cutting and revenue increase options.

C. BREAKING A CAMPAIGN PROMISE AND SPENDING A WINDFALL

In May, 2018, 5 months after he assumed office, Mayor Tim Keller signed into law a gross receipt sales tax increase enacted by the City Council. Seventy percent of the tax was dedicated to public safety. The tax is suppose to raise $55 million a year in revenue. Keller broke a campaign promise not to raise taxes, even for public safety, without a public vote. The rational for the tax increase was that the city was faced with a $40 million dollar deficit. The deficit never materialized and the tax increase was not repealed, and the Keller Administration has never disclosed where those revenues went or why the tax was not repealed when the deficit never materialized.

The City of Albuquerque has an operating budget of $1.1 billion for the fiscal year that began July 1, 2019 and ends on June 30, 2020. It was the first time in city history that the city operating budget exceed the $1 Billion figure. The 2019-2020 budget represented an overall 11% increase in spending over the previous year.

In April, 2019, a onetime $34.4 million dollar windfall to the city was reported from what was called an “orphan month” in city financing. The $34.3 million “one-time, lifetime” boost in revenues could not be applied by the city toward recurring costs. Instead of placing the $34 million dollars in the city’s reserve fund, the Keller Administration spent $29 million of the $34.3 million on numerous one-time investments the Keller Administration felt were important at the time. Those projects, included $6 million for public safety vehicles such as police cars, normally financed with CIP bonds, for new police cadets, $2.3 million for park security, $2 million for the business recruitment and growth and $2 million for housing vouchers and related programs.

Hindsight has now revealed the use of the $34.4 million dollar windfall was a major mistake and the amount should have been added to the city’s reserve fund of $50 million dollar, a fund Mayor Keller is already saying his administration will want to tap into to get the city through the current crisis.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/04/04/orphan-month-windfall-of-34-million-used-for-1-1-billion-city-budget-no-new-taxes-city-to-charge-for-car-crash-clean-ups-and-vehicle-fires/

CONCLUSION

It is too soon to know how the corona virus has depleted the city’s coffers. If the City in fact plunges into another recession, which is highly likely, it will be much deeper than the 10-year great recession that started in 2008. Many businesses along central already barely making it because of the ART project will probably close permanently because of the Governor and Mayor’s emergency orders. Although the Keller Administration implemented a $500,000 fund to help small business, that money was depleted in a matter of days with 100 businesses given $5,000 loans but another 400 denied financial help.

Mayor Tim Keller will start to look and sound more and more like his former Republican predecessor when he starts to say “cut city services and reduce the size of government” to get through the financial crisis. One thing is for certain is that if Mayor Tim Keller advocates another gross receipt tax increase, or goes along with the city council with it, or supports a property tax increase, Keller will wind up becoming a one term Mayor.

________________________________________________

POSTSCRIPT

CITY FINANCES IN A NUTSHELL

The Charter of the City of Albuquerque requires the Mayor to formulate the annual operating budget for the City of Albuquerque and all of its departments. It is the City’s Department of Finance under the direction of the City’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) that formulates the yearly budget which is then submitted to the Albuquerque City Council. The city’s fiscal year’s budget begins every year on July 1 and ends every year on June 30. The annual city budget must be submitted by the Mayor’s Office to the City Council by April 1. The City Council, upon receipt of the proposed budget from the Mayor, schedules budget hearings, takes public input and makes changes as it sees fit before enacting the final budget to be effective July 1.

The current gross receipt tax added to virtually all retail sales of goods and services is 7.7850%. Businesses collect the tax on each sale made and the money is then sent to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and each month the state the distributes the city’s portion of tax collected to the city. Retail businesses make up about 25% of all the city’s gross receipts tax collected. The gross receipts tax revenue pays for basic municipal operations and essential services such as police protection, fire protection, solid waste collection, street repairs, animal welfare, parks maintenance, social services and the wages and benefits to over 6,000 city employees.

Gross receipts tax is collected and given to the city accounts for 67% of the City’s general fund revenue. The gross receipts tax revenue pays for basic municipal operations and essential services such as police protection, fire protection, solid waste collection, street repairs, animal welfare, parks maintenance, social services and the wages and benefits of over 6,000 city employees. For the current fiscal year that ends on July 31, 202, the city averaged upwards of $41 million in gross receipts tax revenue or $492 million dollars for the year. The remaining 33% of revenues needed to operate the city are generated other fees, other tax revenues and federal funding.

ENACTED BUDGET LINE ITEMS

According to CFO Bhakta, the City will have a better sense of the actual loss of revenue in mid-May when the city gets its March gross receipts tax distribution from the state Taxation and Revenue Department. It will be then the City will consider a final budget. The 2020-2021 enacted City Council operating budget contains the following general fund Operating Budget line item appropriations as they appear for the major departments:

Animal Welfare Department, ANIMAL CARE CENTER: $12,675,000

AVIATION DEPARTMENT

Management & Professional Support: $5,841,000
Operations, Maintenance and Security: $33,427,000
Transfers to Other Funds:
General Fund: $2,495,000
Airport Capital and Deferred Maintenance Fund $23,000,000

Chief Administrative Office: $3,439,000

CITY SUPPORT FUNCTIONS LINE ITEM BUDGET

Dues and Memberships: $504,000
Early Retirement: $6,000,000 (This fund is used to pay accumulated annual and sick leave to employees who retire.)
GRT Administration Fee: $5,400,000
Joint Committee on Intergovernmental Legislative Relations: $219,000
Open and Ethical Elections: $641,000

Transfer to Other Funds:

Operating Grants Fund: $6,000,000
Sales Tax Refunding D/S Fund: $13,298,000
Vehicle/Equipment Replacement Fund: 1,200,000

Civilian Police Oversight Agency: $1,065,000

City Council Services: $5,337,000

CULTURAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT

Biological Park: $15,277,000
CIP Bio Park: $247,000
Community Events: $3,523,000
Explora Science Museum: $1,448,000
Albuquerque Museum: $3,713,000
Museum-Balloon: $1,528,000
Public Arts and Urban Enhancement: $511,000
Public Library: $12,952,000
Strategic Support: $2,795,000

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Convention Center / ASC: $2,234,000
Economic Development: $110,000
Economic Development Investment: $321,000
International Trade: $198,000
Office of MRA: $530,000

Environmental Health Department

Consumer Health: $1,574,000
Environmental Services: $679,000
Strategic Support: $839,000
Urban Biology: $500,000

FFAMILY AND COMMUNITY SERVICES DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Affordable Housing: $2,665,000
Child and Family Development: $6,447,000
Community Recreation: $11,661,000
Educational Initiatives: $2,948,000
Emergency Shelter: $5,620,000
Health and Human Services: $4,084,000
Homeless Support Services: $3,481,000
Mental Health: $3,754,000
Strategic Support: $2,021,000
Substance Abuse: $3,075,000
Youth Gang Initiative: $1,155,000

FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATIVE DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Accounting: $4,125,000
Financial Support Services: $1,196,000
Office of Management and Budget: $1,109,000
Purchasing: $1,626,000
Strategic Support: $1,121,000
Treasury: $1,118,000

FIRE DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Dispatch: $5,385,000
Emergency Response: $69,149,000
Emergency Services: $3,361,000
Fire Prevention: $5,861,000
Headquarters: $3,289,000
Logistics: $3,292,000
Office of Emergency Management: $307,000
Training: $2,178,000

HUMAN RESOURCES DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

B/C/J/Q Union Time: $131,000
Personnel Services: $2,994,000

LEGAL DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Legal Services: $6,237,000
Office of Equity and Inclusion: $409,000

Mayor’s Office $1,068,000

MUNICIPAL DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

City Buildings : $14,766,000
Construction: $1,889,000
Design Recovered CIP: $2,077,000
Design Recovered Storm: $2,940,000
Real Property: $879,000
Special Events Parking: $19,000
Storm Drainage: $2,946,000
Strategic Support: $2,743,000
Streets: $ 5,227,000 32
Street Services: $15,210,000

OFFICE OF THE CITY CLERK LINE ITEM BUDGET

Administrative Hearing Office: $412,000
Office of the City Clerk: $2,211,000
Office of Inspector General: $504,000

Office of Internal Audit and Investigations: $934,000

Parking Services $4,368,000 (This is money used to operate the city’s parking structures.)

PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Aquatic Services: $5,458,000
CIP Funded Employees: $2,589,000
Open Space Management: $4,408,000
Parks Management: $18,542,000
Recreation: $3,658,000
Strategic Support: $1,404,000

Transfer to Other Funds:

Capital Acquisition Fund: $100,000
Golf Operating Fund: $1,368,000

PLANNING DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Code Enforcement $3,570,000
One Stop Shop $7,543,000
Strategic Support $2,418,000
Urban Design and Development $1,637,000

POLICE DEPARTMENT LINE ITEM BUDGET

Administrative Support: $18,835,000 (This funding is for case management and reports, clerical staff and the forensic lab.)
Investigative Services: $45,622,000 (This funding is for the various detective units)
Neighborhood Policing: $104,730,000
Off-Duty Police Overtime: $2,225,000 (The funding is to pay for police overtime and for years the actual funding has approached $10 to $14 Million a year.)
Prisoner Transport: $2,423,000 (The funding is used to transport all arrestees to the Westside Jail.)
Professional Accountability: $34,042,000 (This is funding associated with the Department of Justice Consent Decree)

SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT

Administrative Services $7,687,000
Clean City $10,845,000
Collections $23,684,000 (This is the annual cost associated with residential and commercial garbage pick up)
Disposal $9,326,000 (This is funding to operate the land fill)
Maintenance – Support Services $5,641,000 (This fund is essentially fleet maintenance costs)
General Fund $5,933,000
Refuse Disposal Capital Fund $11,619,000

SENIOR AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT

Basic Services $256,000
Strategic Support $2,404,000
Well Being $5,657,000

TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION DEPARTMENT

Citizen Services $3,771,000
Data Management for APD $ 825,000
Information Services $11,546,000

TRANSIT DEPARTMENT: $26,578,000

TRANSIT OPERATING FUND

ABQ Rapid Transit: $1,824,000
ABQ Ride: $31,918,000
Facility Maintenance: $2,560,000
Paratransit Services: $6,232,000
Special Events: $237,000
Strategic Support: $3,464,000

Transfer to Other Funds (Transit):
General Fund: $5,590,000
Transit Grants Fund: $986,000

AIRPORT REVENUE BOND DEBT SERVICE FUND: $2,306,000

BASEBALL STADIUM OPERATING FUND

Stadium Operations $1,232,000
Transfer to Other Funds:
General Fund: $25,000
Sports Stadium D/S Fund: $1,023,000

BASEBALL STADIUM DEBT SERVICE FUND: $998,000

RISK MANAGEMENT FUND (This fund deals with litigation costs and settlements paid out when the city is sued)

Risk – Fund Administration: $1,173,000
Risk – Safety Office: $1,926,000
Risk – Tort and Other: $2,410,000
Risk – Workers’ Comp: $2,518,000
Workers Compensation, Tort Claims and Other Claims: $27,829,000

HUMAN RESOURCES DEPARTMENT

Unemployment Compensation: $1,028,000
Employee Equity: $445,000
Group Self Insurance: $84,917,000 (The city is a self insured entity and as such must maintain a percentage of projected liability exposure.)

Below is the link to located final draft of R-30-21. Click on the link then click on R-31 spelled out in blue and marked FINAL:

https://cabq.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4411998&GUID=3FD662EF-A96A-4BD6-8113-380B7451BADC

For related blog articles see:

Mayor Tim Keller Becomes “Crisis Management Mayor”; City Spending Upwards of $100,000 A Day Dealing With Crisis; Mayor Conducts “Virtual Town Hall Meetings”, Murder And Domestic Violence Rates Rise

Mayor Tim Keller Declares Public Health Emergency Without Press Conference; ACLU Raises Overreach Concerns; Rio Grande Foundation Files Suit Alleging Violation Of Open Meetings Act; Gov. MLG Upstages Mayor With Her Press Conference

Below is a front page Albuquerque Journal article, followed by a link to the article, written by Martin Salazar, one of the papers main editors:

“A HERO’S SEND-OFF; APD OFFICERS GATHER TO HONOR DECEASED LIEUTENANT DESPITE PANDEMIC”

BY MARTIN SALAZAR / JOURNAL CITY EDITOR
Published: Thursday, April 16th, 2020 at 10:00pm

“ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — David Rogers spent his life in service to others. The 56-year-old was a Navy veteran who went on to a long career with the Albuquerque Police Department, retiring as a lieutenant a couple of years ago.

He died too soon following a battle with leukemia, and he got a hero’s send-off on that April 2 morning, with dozens of APD officers showing up at his house to escort the hearse carrying him to the funeral home.

The touching tribute was captured on video, set to the song “Over the Rainbow.”

[The link to the video here was taken down: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwI7ktZgQ0E&feature=emb_title Another link to the video without the sound can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksWO80TblRM ]

Officers greet one another and even pose for group photos. Police Chief Michael Geier shows up to provide solace. Officers stand shoulder-to-shoulder outside the house and salute as Rogers’ flag-draped body is carried from his home for the final time. No one appears to be wearing a mask.

Throngs of motorcycle officers then begin the procession through tree-lined streets as the white hearse from Daniels funeral home joins in.

The scene played out in the midst of a pandemic and at a time when mass gatherings have been banned and citizens have been told to stay at least 6 feet apart due to the threat of the novel coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19. The virus has infected 1,597 New Mexicans and killed 44. Worldwide, it has infected more than 2 million people and killed more than 143,000, including doctors, nurses and, yes, police officers.

Shaun Willoughby, the president of the Albuquerque Police Officers Association, told a Journal reporter he recognizes that the officers are not distancing themselves but says it was the bare minimum that could be done to honor Rogers, whom he described as a great man.

“I think that it’s really important to understand that, as police officers, we’re just human beings, we’re struggling, just like everybody else is, to not shake hands, to not give a friend a hug, and to not be there for family members when they are in need or they are sad,” Willoughby said. “I would have been disrespected as a police officer if the department had done nothing. I think it is a show of strong leadership and essence of our police family to make sure that we recognize his service to this community and this police department.”

To be clear, Rogers deserved the procession he got and so much more.

But the gathering came a week and a half after the state secretary of health issued a public order banning mass gatherings, defined as – among other things – public or private gatherings that bring together five or more individuals in an open outdoor space where individuals are within 6 feet of one another.

It’s a message that state and local officials have been driving home over and over again – a message that, they insist, is aimed at saving lives. And it’s an order that authorities say is being enforced. In Albuquerque, open space managers are teaming up with volunteers and police to ensure people are following social distancing rules on public trails.

“It’s extremely important that everyone is following the public health orders to keep us all safe,” Mayor Tim Keller said in a news release earlier this month, this one about how APD, Albuquerque Fire Rescue and the city’s Code Enforcement Division would be working together to ensure that nonessential businesses were complying with the governor’s public health order. “We all have to remember the goal is literally to save lives.”

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, meanwhile, has acknowledged that the orders her administration has issued are causing hardships, but just this week, she thanked New Mexicans for stepping up during the Easter weekend and following them.

“People made sacrifices all over the state to do incredible social distancing which, as we all know, is critical to protecting our first responders, our health care system and saving lives, so we’re going to keep doing that,” she said during a news conference Wednesday.

But when Journal reporter Elise Kaplan asked about the video showing APD officers standing close to one another outside Rogers’ home, neither the mayor nor the Governor’s Office expressed concern.

The Mayor’s Office did not answer questions posed by the Journal, including whether Keller knew about the gathering for the procession or thought such a gathering was advisable. Instead, a spokeswoman sent a statement about measures the department has taken to keep officers safe while fighting crime.

Tripp Stelnicki, the governor’s spokesman, did address the video.

“It would seem in my view that efforts were made to adhere to social distancing as best it could be while still providing Lt. Rogers a respectful escort worthy of his service to the city,” he wrote.

Chief Geier would not do an interview with the Journal about his own decision to attend the gathering, but APD spokesman Gilbert Gallegos confirmed that the officers had organized the escort procession from Rogers’ residence to the funeral home to honor his service the morning he died.

“Chief Geier reminded officers at the residence to practice social distancing,” Gallegos wrote in an email.

Willoughby said the police escort was the only way they could honor a friend and former colleague because it wasn’t possible for anyone to attend a funeral or memorial service. He said Rogers served in the Navy before his long career with APD and he retired in the past couple of years. He said that shortly after Rogers retired he was diagnosed with leukemia.

“This is a man that gave his entire life to service,” Willoughby said. “… With social distancing and the inability to have an actual funeral, I was proud to see the Albuquerque Police Department do what they did, which was they basically did an escort from his home to the funeral home on the morning that he was deceased.”

There’s no question Rogers deserved the send-off his former colleagues gave him. He was a public servant in the truest sense, and that service deserves to be recognized.

But it’s worth noting that there are countless families throughout our community and throughout the country who are grieving by themselves because large gatherings aren’t allowed and because ignoring those orders puts lives at risk. And it’s worth noting that this is a moment of shared sacrifice that’s affecting everyone, from workers who have lost their livelihoods to those dying alone in hospitals.
And even brushing all that aside, Albuquerque can ill afford to lose any more heroes.”

The link to the Albuquerque Journal article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1444645/amid-covid19-pandemic-a-hero-receives-a-touching-tribute.html

APD PERSONNEL POLICIES ADOPTED AFTER THE FACT

During the week of April 14, Mayor Tim Keller and APD Chief Michael Geier announced that the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) were adopting personnel programs from other law enforcement departments across the country to deal with the corona virus. Although no APD officer has yet tested positive for the corona virus, both acknowledged that it is just a matter of time before a police officer dealing with the public becomes infected.

According to Keller:

“I think the unfortunate thing is at some point this is probably going to happen. Some of our officers and some of our first responders are going to come down with corona. The key is that we’re able to contain that spread. So that’s what we’re setting up now, and that’s what, unfortunately, a lot of these other departments did not have in place in advance.”

According to APD Chief Geier, the city has implemented a “three-tiered system” personnel policy to replace field officers who have to be put in quarantine due to the virus with police officers in investigative units as officers have to be isolated after possible exposure or put in quarantine due to the virus.

Under the policy announced, uniformed officers or civilian staffers who think they have been exposed to coronavirus, either on or off the job, are told to report it to a lieutenant who has been designated to coordinate the department’s response. The officers or staffers are then isolated, sometimes in hotel rooms away from their families, until they can be tested.

Taking officers out of the field periodically can greatly reduce the ranks. According to an APD staffing report, the department has a total of 972 sworn officers with 600 officers in the field patrolling 6 area commands and neighborhoods. According to APD spokesman Gilbert Gallegos, there are 340 active-duty field officers, with 12 to 26 staffing each shift, depending on the time of day and area command.

Chief Geier said that, in the first tier, the department has identified 135 officers and 35 supervisors who can be pulled without affecting any investigative units. The second tier taps further into investigative units and includes an additional 39 officers and six supervisors. The last tier utilizes both Tier 1 and Tier 2 and adds 215 more officers 50 supervisors.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1444221/aps-plan-covers-officers-our-temporarily-due-to-virus.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The Albuquerque Journal front page article entitled “A Hero’s Send Off” and subtitled “APD officers gather to honor deceased lieutenant despite pandemic” is well written. It reflects 100% respect and dignity to an APD Police Officer who passed away, a man who served his country well in the military and then served his community to protect it. Lt. David Rogers without a doubt was a hero in every sense of the word. Sincere condolences go out to the family Lt. David Rogers during this difficult time.

Journal Editor Martin Salazar is commended for handling the very difficult subject matter while at the same time raising serious questions and issues that failed to be addressed by the Governor, the Mayor and APD Chief Michael Geier. Its speaks volumes’ that the Governor and the Mayor declined to give a direct quote, preferring a spokesman to speak for them instead. The Governor and the Mayor are giving daily press briefings and answering question about their efforts, yet they decline to comment for the story preferring spokes people to comment for them. Mayor Keller has also been conducting telephone “town hall meetings” where thousands participate and call in and ask him questions directly. APD Chief Geier simply refuses to comment.

Nationwide police are having to adjust how they handle funerals and processions. For example in Indiana, the police honored an officer killed on a domestic violence call by holding a procession at the local race track where all officers stayed in their vehicles and if outside their vehicles were at least 6 feet apart.

When you review the entire video, it is clear no safety precautions were taken as ordered by the Governor and the Mayor in their emergency orders. The links to both the Governor’s and the Mayor’s emergency declarations are found here:

https://www.governor.state.nm.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-19-DOH-Order-fv.pdf

https://cv.nmhealth.org/public-health-orders-and-executive-orders/

https://www.cabq.gov/mayor/news/mayor-keller-declares-local-public-health-emergency-due-to-covid-19

It has been extensively reported by the national and local news media that people with underlying health conditions are at the greatest risk for the corona virus. New York city for example had to update its statistics by adding an additional 3,000 who passed away at home. There is no report if the decedent past away from his underlying health conditions complicated by the corona virus.

APD Chief Michael Geier and the 40+ police officers in attendance failed to take precautionary measures to protect themselves from the corona virus with their failure to practice social distancing, to wear masks and to congregate with more than 5 people. APD has also been ordered by Mayor Keller to enforce and issue citations to businesses and citizens for flagrant violations of the orders. Links to the enforcement stories are here:

https://www.cabq.gov/police/news/city-helps-enforce-states-public-health-order

https://www.cabq.gov/office-of-emergency-management/news/mayor-keller-increases-enforcement-of-flagrant-non-essential-businesses-violators-and-inspection-of-nursing-homes

WHO GAVE THE ORDER?

The Governor’s and the Mayor’s quarantine, stay away orders and social distancing mandates do apply to funerals and people must adhere to social distancing and the 5 person crowd size requirements. A Livestream of the funeral so people can attend remotely is allowed. Immediate family may be there in person while others participate from home. Live chat for those who may not have a webcam at home but still want to be involved can be used.

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-resources/faq-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-mexico-stay-at-home-order/

It must be noted that the video reflects that the entire APD Traffic unit of some 40+ APD police officers participated in the escort . Chief Michael Geier, or someone in his command staff, had to order the entire Traffic Unit to respond for the escort. If such an order was given to the Traffic Unit, the order violated the governor’s and the mayor’s directives. APD’s activity, if the Governor and the Mayor are to believed regarding the seriousness of the corona virus, clearly put all of the officers, their families and the community at risk.

According to APD spokesman Gilbert Gallegos, there are 340 active-duty field officers assigned to 3 shifts and 6 area commands. The participation of 40+ sworn police to participate in the escort no doubt placed a strain on APD to respond to calls for service.

CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that Lt. David Rogers was deserving of the honor bestowed him and his family. It is difficult to understand why the APD command staff and in particular Chief Geier and the police union could not find and implement a better and safer way to honor one of their own.

Union President Shawn Willoughby can always be counted on to say something whenever the Keller Administration does some thing that he believes places his union membership in harms way, but not this time. His expressed grieve is understandable. When police union President Willoughby says the police escort was the only way they could honor a friend and former colleague because it wasn’t possible for anyone to attend a funeral or memorial service, the assertion is blatantly false on so many levels.

What is occurring not only here but nationwide are live-streaming of funerals so people can attend remotely. Immediate family are allowed to be there in person while others participate from home. Live chat for those who may not have a webcam at home but still want to be involved can be used.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Mayor Tim Keller and Chief Michael Geier and APD have shown a level of hypocrisy when they decline to even comment and not demand that APD take far more safety precautions. Mayor Keller especially showed hypocrisy by not commenting when he has said before “Some of our officers and some of our first responders are going to come down with corona. The key is that we’re able to contain that spread.” Mayor Tim Keller and Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham are demanding so very much from the general public during these difficult times, but then they both choose to treat law enforcement differently, make excuses or not even express that law enforcement must show more caution.

Just like the general public, law enforcement must honor and respect the requirements of the emergency orders as to safety precautions to halt the spread of the virus. Otherwise the emergency orders are meaningless and law enforcement lose credibility with the public when they try to enforce the orders and shut down businesses and cancel major events and issue citizens citations that result in heavy fines. It becomes an issue of “do as I order, not as I do.”

______________________________________________

POSTSCRIPTS

The following AlbUquerque Journal editorial was published on April 2:

HEADLINE: Editorial: How can leaders remain mum on APD send-off?
BY ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL EDITORIAL BOARD
Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020 at 12:02am

Albuquerque police officers stood shoulder to shoulder at the home of David Rogers on April 2. They wanted to give the retired APD lieutenant a hero’s send-off after he lost his battle with leukemia, and they accomplished that.

They, along with Mayor Tim Keller and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, also accomplished sending a strong message there’s a double standard when it comes to following social distancing rules in the age of coronavirus – rules both have vowed to have law enforcement enforce.

Albuquerque Police Chief Michael Geier, who was in attendance, confirmed through a spokesman officers organized the hearse escort from Rogers’ home to the funeral home but declined to elaborate. A spokesman said Geier reminded officers to practice social distancing.

Photos and a video (since removed from YouTube) of the send-off show that few, if any, listened. Officers did not stay in cruisers or on motorcycles to respectfully follow the hearse. During part of the video, some officers appeared to stand apart. But at times many stood shoulder to shoulder outside Rogers’ home, some even posing for group photos. No masks. No gloves. No other personal protective equipment. Not even by Chief Geier.

Neither Lujan Grisham nor Keller, who have ordered citizens to stay home and away from groups, expressed concern about the send-off. A spokesman for the governor said: “It would seem in my view that efforts were made to adhere to social distancing as best it could be while still providing Lt. Rogers a respectful escort worthy of his service to the city.” Keller did not answer questions, and instead a spokeswoman sent a statement about measures APD has taken to keep officers safe on the job. Shaun Willoughby, president of the Albuquerque Police Officers Association, told the Journal “a show of strong leadership and essence of our police family” was “the bare minimum” that could be done to honor Rogers.

Really? To preserve social distancing, you can’t load your groceries on the conveyer belt at the store until the person in front of you is done. You can’t join with family and friends to celebrate an engagement or mourn a loved one or honor a milestone. But if you wear a blue uniform and badge, you can pose side by side for pics with no protective gear whatsoever? Do our elected and law enforcement leaders think COVID-19 differentiates?

We understand that honoring our fallen police officers is a long-standing tradition. The desire to show respect for Rogers, 56, a U.S. Navy and law enforcement veteran, is commendable. But the way it was done was wholly inappropriate when state residents are told to stay home and remain 6 feet apart. The gathering at Rogers’ home came just a week and a half after the state Department of Health banned mass gatherings, defined as more than five. It’s a message officials and flashing road signs have been driving home. It’s an order police have been enforcing. And then APD blatantly violates it.

The failure of the mayor and governor to denounce the send-off is a glaring failure in leadership. By attending the gathering, Geier gave his approval, and rather than speaking out against the gathering, Keller and Lujan Grisham have backed him up.

No doubt it would have been awkward for Keller and Lujan Grisham to publicly criticize law enforcement for honoring one of its own. But they ordered the shelter-in-place rules, regardless of the personal pain and sacrifice they are causing hundreds of thousands of New Mexicans. They should have the backbone to support their own policies – and then brace for any criticism.

This editorial first appeared in the Albuquerque Journal. It was written by members of the editorial board and is unsigned as it represents the opinion of the newspaper rather than the writers.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1446283/how-can-leaders-remain-mum-on-apd-sendoff.html

The following story was published by the Albuquerque Journal on line on April 17 at 8:16 PM

HEADLINE: Dozens of APD officers quarantined after COVID-19 contact
BY MATTHEW REISEN / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER
Friday, April 17th, 2020 at 8:16pm

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The Albuquerque Police Department has tested 39 officers and two civilian employees for COVID-19 and placed them all in quarantine after being exposed to another law enforcement officer who has the virus.

Gilbert Gallegos, an APD spokesman, said the officers experienced “different levels of exposure” over several days, which included a multi-agency operation.

“As soon as they were notified of the exposure, officers were immediately placed on quarantine and tested for the virus, as part of our protocol,” he said. “We are waiting for final results of those tests and will consult with our medical director before officers return to duty.”

Gallegos did not say what agency the initial infected officer was with or give the context of their contact with APD personnel.

“This is exactly why we are implementing safety protocols throughout the department to protect officers and prevent the spread of the virus,” Gallegos said. “We have not had any officers test positive.”

He said, in addition to current protocols, area commanders have been directed to spend time ensuring officers are wearing masks during encounters with the public.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1445020/dozens-of-apd-officers-quarantined-after-covid-19-contact.html?fbclid=IwAR3oG9jOzBy8CE9wMcDP6C4DSLAg4NWBiCBGWMi5uVi1Y1Sbhvzc-mqVAVY

Below is a guest opinion article submitted for publication to this blog by private business owner, developer and entrepreneur Paul Silverman.

According to Paul Silverman, he has been an entrepreneur since 1957 when he was 9 yrs.old. He has lived in NM since 1977 investing in NM and places as far away as Singapore. His experience, and being very frugal, has allowed him to invest and operate in real estate, oil & gas, restaurants, listed stocks and start-ups. His greatest achievement to date has been the repatriation of his two sons with their families from California to take over the family real estate portfolio. He will tell you that the only thing he is allergic to is poverty and stupidity, which sometimes comes across as crass or arrogant, but he believes that hard work and making mistakes is the anecdote for both.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in this article are those of Paul Silverman and do not necessarily reflect those of the political blog www.petedinelli.com and Mr. Silverman was not compensated for the column).

The recent oil price war between Russia and the OPEC countries has had a major crippling impact on New Mexico’s oil and gas industry to the point of the state’s oil industry is shutting down. The current State budget relied on oil prices being $52 dollars a barrel and the price has now plummeted to $20 a barrel. It has forced a special legislative session. The crisis has highlighted the State’s reliance on the oil industry royalties to finance government. The State is faced with a $2.5 billion deficit from loss of oil production royalties and the oil industry literally shutting down in New Mexico.
The State’s reliance on oil industry royalties to finance government is not just the only problem it has. The biggest problem we have is way too much reliance on Federal Dollars, which for 10 years was declining or flat and in no event will ever grow fast enough to support the growth potential of the State. For decades, elected officials talk about diversifying our economy and talk about economic based jobs versus service-based jobs, and still nothing is done. The film industry had promise for the State in diversifying the economy, but that industry is heavily subsidized by the State and the subsidies may now be on the chopping block during the special session.

The only thing that made the film industry possible were the petroleum dollars. Netflix was the only company that actually made a major investment in brick and mortar in the State. NBC Universal was paid for with LEDA and Garcia family money. The Garcia’s will take a big hit in that when NBC leaves.

As to reliance on government jobs, that has been the basis of existence for people of European descent in NM for 422 years. It is a decent job, but no one ever got rich working in a government job. Very little wealth has ever been created in NM that stayed here with the exception being businesses created by Jewish and Italian families because they actually knew how to do business.

All the wealth created by our minerals, which is the basis of all wealth creation in all societies, goes out of state. With wealth from minerals, you usually get a second level of wealth creation. Think coal and iron ore gets you steel in the Midwest, oil and gas refining gets you petrochemicals in the Gulf coast, and gold and silver In Spain and Italy created the watch and jewelry industry in Switzerland.

Then there is a third level of valuation where the steel created the railroads and then auto industry and petrochemicals created the plastics industry. And so it goes.

But because government has always dominated the economy of our State, our stupid elected officials let people come in and take the wealth as long as the government got their cut. So our inheritance as a State was government jobs and a nice set of permanent funds but no real wealth creation. Without having the things that wealth creates, factories, real estate, and other hard assets, the only thing the State has to tax is the income from our jobs and the things it buys. I would also be remiss to note that wealth also buys things like concert halls, museums, hospitals, libraries, school buildings, etc. (named after the wealth that created them – not the elected people who spent your money to pay for them.

But then, in the early 1970’s, we nearly hit the jackpot with Bill Gates and Bill Allen. But a group of lawyers let them get out of town to pay a bill rather than investing in them. But the computers they created have given us the tools to mine the most important assets on earth – information. It started out as the tool to penetrate the government labs – tech transfer. But now has turned into the tool to gather all the information in the world.

Slowly, but with steady effort, we have been building up a 21st century industrial based composed of the most precious assets NM has in abundance – brain power. We have hundreds of small companies, not only in high tech but many other areas who are thriving in NM.

This is the future growth industry in NM that will stay here and create the wealth we have been missing. About 8 years ago, I started investing in these companies. To date, we have made 15 investments and have had only one failure which was my first investment. Given that failure is not something I can easily accept, I am resurrecting the some of the good work that did get done, moving the IP to a new company that will be very successful going forward with a new start. And it will be a NM company creating jobs and wealth for New Mexico.

You will read about the rebirth soon. My portfolio also includes some incredible other companies like Aqua Membranes (water technology), mPower (solar power), NtxBio (pharma-tech) and my biggest investment, Electric Playhouse which will have 500 stores across the US before it goes international. This is not said to be braggadocios, but to hopefully encourage others reading this to dig a little deeper to find these emerging start-ups or search out people like John Strong, John Chavez, Stuart Rose or others you read about to find a path into this incredible opportunity to invest in NM and take advantage of this renaissance of the NM economy.

As these companies mature and grow, they are going to be part of the new economic engine of NM. They are also going to make a lot of people, a lot of money which will stay and get reinvested in NM. Then we can start to create the wealth that will create better schools, a concert hall, better funding for behavioral health and a stronger economy to make business the focus of the State, not government. Hopefully kids will want to stay in school to become business-people, scientists and professionals rather that gang bangers, drug dealers and criminals.

That is the dream and that is what I am focused on …along with continuing to prod our elected officials to make better decisions.”

Below is the contact information for Mr. Silverman:

Paul L. Silverman
Geltmore LLC
Address: P.O. Box 7459
Albuquerque, NM 87194

Office 505-294-8625
Cell 505-328-8625
Fax. 505-294-2225
Email: paul@geltmore.com

________________________________________

POSTSCRIPT

ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL GUEST COLUMN

(EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in this guest column are those of DALE R. DEKKER and do not necessarily reflect those of the political blog www.petedinelli.com. The link to the Journal follows the column).

On Friday, April 17, the following guest column was published by the Albuquerque Journal:

TITLE: NM NEEDS A 21st- CENTURY BUSINESS PLAN TO RECOVER
BY DALE R. DEKKER / FOUNDING PRINCIPAL, DEKKER/PERICH/SABATINI
Friday, April 17th, 2020 at 12:02am

“New Mexico is experiencing the perfect storm:

• Crashing oil prices; a global pandemic that is hammering our state’s tourism and hospitality industries;

• A much-needed social distancing mandate that by necessity keeps people in their homes and not spending money, which in turn greatly reduces gross receipts taxes that fund our state and city operations;

• Huge job losses that in turn will create unprecedented unemployment and impact the lives of thousands of New Mexicans.

Our state has gone from riding on top of the wave to getting crushed by events and circumstances beyond our control. Nobody could have seen this coming, but it should serve as a wake-up call for our state’s businesses, nonprofits and government entities that business-as-usual will not work in the future, and that there will be a “new normal.” So that is today’s grand challenge – trying to figure out what the new normal might look like and how New Mexico can begin to position itself now.

It is clear that New Mexico needs a 21st century business plan. The thinking of the past is not sustainable and will not meet the needs of current and future New Mexicans. The global pandemic has exposed the serious vulnerability of the United States to supply chain interruptions and the impact to critical infrastructure, particularly in pharma, personal protective equipment and medical devices. For example, more than 90% of all antibacterial drugs are manufactured in China and over 70% of active pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China and India. Other industries impacted are apparel, automotive, aerospace and manufactured goods and products of all kinds. Will these identified “vulnerabilities” bring businesses and manufacturing back to the United States? My hunch is yes. The re-shoring trend of industry back to the United States, in combination with advanced manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, big data and 5G, are going to create the next industrial revolution 4.0. New Mexico’s 24/7/365 days of production, our state’s lack of extreme weather and natural disasters, our low cost of renewable energy and our strategic location along major east-west and north-south trade routes could influence where manufacturing re-shores to the United States.

Besides our state’s natural environment, abundant natural resources and location advantages, we as a state have existing infrastructure that will serve to attract companies to our state and provide new opportunities for our citizens to grow and thrive. World-class research universities; a robust community college and workforce training system; our national labs with centers of excellence focused on artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, aerospace and robotics – these are all assets that will differentiate New Mexico in the new normal.

So why should we create a new business plan now? Because if we don’t make some bold moves, and fast, our state’s goals of improving our public education system and dealing with crime, mental health and homelessness will never happen. We as a state won’t have the tax revenue to fill the gap left by a business model that was over-dependent on oil as well as respond to the shock of the pandemic’s impact to our state’s economy and revenues. The need to diversify our economy has never been greater. We need to encourage and reward innovation, ingenuity and the risk-takers who grow our state’s economic base. There has never been greater need in our state’s history to rethink and reinvent itself for the new normal and for a sustainable path forward in the 21st century.

New Mexico’s budget is upside down and not if, but when, there is a special legislative session, I would hope a public/private task force could be created and empowered to craft New Mexico’s 21st Century business plan. The charge will be to develop a blueprint for how our state can thrive in the new normal, diversify our economy and enhance the quality of life for all New Mexicans. No easy task, but one that must be undertaken with a sense of urgency and collective determination. New Mexico has no time to waste.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1444620/nm-needs-21st-century-business-plan-to-recover.html

The term “fog of war” has been defined by various sources as “the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one’s own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement, operation, or campaign. Military forces try to reduce the fog of war through military intelligence and friendly force tracking systems.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war

The “Fog of War” is also a 2003 academy award winning documentary about former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara and the role he played in perpetrating lies and deceit to the American people during the Kennedy-Johnson presidential years, especially during the Cuban Missile crisis and the Viet Nam War.

https://slate.com/culture/2003/12/the-lies-of-the-fog-of-war.html

OUR CORONA VIRUS WARTIME PRESIDENT

It comes as no surprise that President Donald Trump is declaring himself a “wartime president”. His appointed Surgeon General is now saying “This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment”. Trump knows full well that the wartime references will give him a bump in popularity for his re election bid. Its called “rally round the flag” effect.

The rally ’round the flag effect is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support for a President of the United States during periods of major crisis or war that threatens the United States. The rally ’round the flag” effect can reduce criticism of governmental policies.

In times of major crisis, usually in time of war and national threat, the American public usually views a President as the embodiment of national unity, and the president’s popularity goes up but it does not last. The best example is the 9-11 World Trade Center attack where President George W. Bushes popularity soared to over 90% but he left office with approval ratings in the 30’s after his second term.

ASSOCIATED PRESS REPORT

On April 11, the Associated Press published the following article, which is followed by the link to the article, that outlines the major unmet promises of President Trump’s handling of corona virus pandemic. The article refers to those promises as the “fog of promises” which can also be called Trump’s “fog of war.” Following is the article and link:

HEADLINE: Trump leaves trail of unmet promises in coronavirus response
by: CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press

Posted: Apr 11, 2020 / 06:39 AM MDT / Updated: Apr 11, 2020 / 07:39 AM MDT
For several months, President Donald Trump and his officials have cast a fog of promises meant to reassure a country in the throes of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump and his team haven’t delivered on critical ones.

They talk numbers. Bewildering numbers about masks on the way. About tests being taken. About ships sailing to the rescue, breathing machines being built and shipped, field hospitals popping up, aircraft laden with supplies from abroad, dollars flowing to crippled businesses.

Piercing that fog is the bottom-line reality that Americans are going without the medical supplies and much of the financial help they most need from the government at the very time they need it most — and were told they would have it.

The U.S. now is at or near the height of COVID-19 sickness and death, experts believe.

There’s no question that on major fronts — masks, gowns, diagnostic tests, ventilators and more —- the federal government is pushing hard now to get up to speed. Impressive numbers are being floated for equipment and testing procedures in the pipeline.

But in large measure they will arrive on the down slope of the pandemic, putting the U.S. in a better position should the same virus strike again but landing too late for this outbreak’s lethal curve.

Concerning ventilators, for example, Trump recently allowed: “A lot of them will be coming at a time when we won’t need them as badly.”

Two weeks ago, Trump brought word of an innovative diagnostic test that can produce results in minutes instead of days or a week. The U.S. testing system, key to containing the spread of infection, has been a failure in the crunch, as public health authorities (but never Trump) acknowledged in March. The rapid test could help change that.

Like other glimmers of hope that may or may not come to something, Trump held out these tests as a “whole new ballgame.” The new machines and testing cartridges are being sent across the country, and may well hold promise. But they are not ready for actual use in large numbers.

New Hampshire, for one, received 15 rapid-test machines but 120 cartridges instead of the 1,500 expected. Only two machines can be used. “I’m banging my head against the wall, I really am,” Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said Wednesday. “We’re going to keep pushing on Washington multiple times a day to get what we need.”

False starts and dead ends are inevitable in any crisis, especially one driven by a virus never seen before. By its nature, a crisis means we’re not on top of it. Desperation is the mother of invention here and officials worldwide are winging it, many more successfully than in the U.S.\

But bold promises and florid assurances were made, day after day, from the White House and a zigzagging president who minimized the danger for months and systematically exaggerates what Washington is doing about it.

“We’re getting them tremendous amounts of supplies,” he said of health care workers. “Incredible. It’s a beautiful thing to watch.” This was when Americans were watching something else entirely — doctors wearing garbage bags for makeshift protection.

MASKS, GLOVES, GOWNS

In hospitals, masks, gloves and other protective garb come with the territory. But doctors, nurses, flight attendants and other front-line workers have had to go begging for such basics, even before public health leaders flipped and recommended facial coverings for everyone outside the home.

The mere scale of the pandemic stretched supplies even in better prepared countries. Yet the enduring shortages in the U.S. are not just from a lack of foresight, but also from hesitancy as the pandemic started to sicken and kill Americans.

It was not until mid-March, when some hospitals were already treating thousands of infected patients without enough equipment and pleading for help, that the government placed bulk orders for N95 masks and other basic necessities of medical care for its stockpile, The Associated Press reported. Washington dithered on supplies for two months after global alarm bells rang about a coming pandemic in January.

And the Strategic National Stockpile, it turns out, is not the supply fortress you might have thought from its formidable name.

It maxed out days ago, before the pandemic’s peak in the U.S., and never filled its purpose of plugging the most essential and immediate gaps in supplies, though it helped. This past week officials said the stockpile was 90% depleted of its protective equipment, with the remainder to be held back for federal employees only.

Some shipments to states were deficient. The wrong masks were sent to Illinois in a load of 300,000. Michigan got only half of the number that was supposed to be in a shipment of 450,000. When he was trying to get 10,000 ventilators in late March, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said he received 170 broken ones from the national stockpile as well as good ones.

When officials in Alabama opened a shipment of medical masks from the stockpile, they found more than 5,000 with rot. They had expired in 2010, officials in the state said, yet been left in place first by the Obama administration and then the Trump administration.

When it became clear that critical shortages weren’t being solved, the self-styled “wartime president,” who had gone to Norfolk, Virginia, to send off the USS Comfort Navy hospital ship to New York City, blamed the states and declared the federal government isn’t a “shipping clerk.”

TESTS

“Anybody that needs a test, gets a test,” Trump said on March 6. “They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.” He said the same day: “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.”

Whether it’s a case of needing a test or only wanting one, his assurance was not true then, it’s not true now and it won’t be true any time soon.

The greatly expanding but still vastly insufficient capacity to test people is steered mostly to those who are already sick or to essential workers at the most risk of exposure.

If you’re sick with presumed COVID-19 but riding it out at home, chances are you haven’t been tested. If you worry that you’ve been exposed and might be carrying and spreading the virus but so far feel fine, you’re generally off the radar as well.

Trump tries to assure people who need to fly that passengers are tested getting on and off flights. He is wrong. Instead, some major airports do screenings, which means asking passengers questions and checking their temperature, not swabbing their nasal passages to find out for sure.

Many people with the virus will never get sick from it. Others who have it will get sick eventually. Both groups are contagious. But there is no capacity in the days of greatest danger to test apparently healthy people in large numbers, so precautionary distancing remains the best defense, like in ancient times.

Within three weeks of China’s New Year’s Eve notification to global health authorities about a mysterious cluster of pneumonia cases, China had sequenced the genetic makeup of the virus, German scientists had developed a test for detecting it and the World Health Organization had adopted the test and was moving toward global distribution.

Ten days behind, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention bypassed the WHO test and sponsored their own, which was flawed out of the gate. Trump said the WHO test was flawed, but it wasn’t.

Precious time was lost as the U.S. test was corrected, distributed narrowly, then more broadly but still not up to par with the countries most on top of the crisis. Testing most lagged during the critical month of February as the virus took root in the U.S. population.

Germany, in contrast, raced ahead with aggressive testing of a broad segment of the population when it had fewer than 10 cases in January. It has experienced far fewer deaths proportionally than the United States.

“There were many, many opportunities not to end up where we are,” Dr. Ashish K. Jha, director of the Global Health Institute at Harvard, told AP.

Trump told Americans on March 13 that a division of Google’s parent company was coming out with a website that would let people determine online if they should get a test and, if so, swing by a nearby place to get one, a notable shortcut in theory. But a game-changer in practice?

“It’s going to be very quickly done,” he said. The website is up but operational in just four California counties. Drive-through sites that he promised would expedite testing were plagued with shortages and delays in state after state, such that many people with symptoms and a doctor’s order were turned away.

VENTILATORS

Trump dusted off the Defense Production Act, empowering him to order manufacturers and shippers to make and deliver what the country needs in the crisis. His move raised expectations that a new wave of emergency supplies generally and ventilators in particular could come to the aid of patients and the people looking after them. He and his advisers inflated those hopes.

Under the president’s “vigorous, swift” order to General Motors, said Peter Navarro, White House point man on the emergency supply chain, new ventilators would be ready in “Trump time, which is to say as fast as possible.”

Yet Trump has held off on using his full powers under the act to command production from private companies. A presidential directive to GM on ventilator manufacturing essentially told the company to do what it was already doing.

While most people get better from COVID-19 without needing medical care, the sickest cannot breathe without a ventilator bridging them to recovery. The ventilator shortfall has been the most frightening deficiency as more people get infected and die by the hour. In the current chaos, the size of the shortfall nationally is not known.

In the absence of what they regard as dependable federal leadership, several states formed a supply consortium to coordinate purchases and boost their buying power. The federal government has pitched in with states and private companies to spur supplies, though not exactly in an atmosphere of trust.

Governors accuse Washington of shortchanging states on machines. Washington accuses some of them of trying to build an unreasonable cushion that deprives other, more desperate states.

According to the scientific model most favored by federal authorities, the country probably needs nearly 17,000 ventilators to be operating for COVID-19 patients alone at the pandemic’s peak, right about now, a figure that exceeds 35,000 under a worst-case scenario.

“We have over 100,000 being built right now or soon to be started,” Trump said a week ago. He acknowledged they won’t come in time.

WHERE’S THE MONEY?

“This will deliver urgently needed relief,” Trump said in signing an economic rescue package into law. The need may be urgent but the delivery hasn’t been.

More than two weeks later, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said with some exaggeration, but not much, that “no money has gone out the door yet.”

Because of the bureaucracy.

Because of website glitches.

Because of confusion among lenders with the money to farm out and among those who need it to keep their businesses afloat.

So much for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s prediction that loans could be turned around and money transferred to businesses’ bank accounts the same day applications were received.

Yet because of the flood of pending loans, Congress is already having to find more money for subsidies to help businesses cover payroll. Only a tiny fraction of loans has been released.

Meantime state officials are slammed as they try to administer jobless benefits that Washington expanded and is paying for but having states try to manage.
Frustration with the virus package is going viral.

In Portland, Maine, a furloughed orthopedic medical assistant, Margaret Heath Carignan, called the unemployment office on a day set aside for people with surnames starting with A through H. And called and called. Altogether, she said, 291 times before she gave up.

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics/trump-and-his-trail-of-unmet-promises-in-coronavirus-fight/

TRUMP PROCLAIMS HE HAS ULTIMATE AUTHORITY OVER STATES AND GOVERNORS

President Trump is now looking at reopening the economy by May 1, creating yet another crisis putting him on a collision course with state leaders who are pushing back.

On April 13, President Trump said the decision to reopen the country’s ailing economy ultimately rests with him, not state leaders there by escalating his feud with governors over when to allow Americans to return to work. In two tweets, Trump claimed he had the ultimate authority to loosen coronavirus outbreak measures as governors pushed ahead with their own plans for reopening their states, in some cases a coalition of governors looking at regions.

In his first tweet, Trump wrote:

“For the purpose of creating conflict and confusion, some in the Fake News Media are saying that it is the Governors decision to open up the states, not that of the President of the United States & the Federal Government. Let it be fully understood that this is incorrect”.

In the second tweet, Trump wrote:

“It is the decision of the President, and for many good reasons. With that being said, the Administration and I are working closely with the Governors, and this will continue. A decision by me, in conjunction with the Governors and input from others, will be made shortly!”.

The two tweets were in total contradiction to previous comments Trump had made the previous week when he said he didn’t want to overrule governors on matters regarding closures and coronavirus strictures, even though he would be within his right to under the constitution, and said:

“I like to allow governors to make decisions without overruling them, because from a constitutional standpoint, that’s the way it should be done. … “If I disagreed, I would overrule a governor, and I have that right to do it … I would rather have them make their decisions.”

The truth is that President Trump does not have any authority to overrule the governors nor order them to reverse the closure and reopen the economy. The United States Constitution does not give the President the auhority Trump claims he has and neither has the congress.

During his April 14 news conference on the corona virus updates, Trump said this:

“When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that’s the way it’s got to be. … It’s total. The governors know that. … [They] can’t do anything without the approval of the president of the United States.”

WITHHOLDING FUNDING TO WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

On April 2, 2020, Trump had this to say about travel restrictions to China:

“I cut off China very early. And if I didn’t, we would have a chart that you wouldn’t believe. So how would I know to do that? How would I know to cut off Europe? I cut off Europe very early. I mean, you have to make a decision. People knew that some bad things were going on, and they got off to a late start. And some others got off to a late start also. But we cut off China. If we didn’t cut off China, we would have been in some big trouble. And we cut it off.”

Trump has repeatedly patted himself on the back for announcing travel restrictions on China as the novel coronavirus emerged in January. Before the caseload in the United States exploded, Trump attributed what he considered a small number of cases to that decision. Even as deaths from covid-19 in the United States started to soar, he said he saved lives by imposing what he calls a “ban” on China and said on March 25:

“We’re the ones that gave the great response, and we’re the ones that kept China out of here. … And if I didn’t do it, you’d have thousands and thousands of people died — who would’ve died — that are now living and happy.”

The truth is that the World Health Organization cautioned against such travel restrictions, saying they are ineffective against a virus and in the long run counterproductive. Trump, according to news reports, was initially skeptical and worried about provoking China after signing a major trade deal. But his national security and public health experts convinced him that the move would buy time to put in place effective prevention and testing measures.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/07/trumps-claim-that-he-imposed-first-china-ban/

On April 14, President Donald Trump order the suspension of funding to the World Health Organization while it reviews the agency’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic,. Trump said the international health agency made mistakes that “caused so much death” as the coronavirus spread across the globe. At a press conference Trump said:

“Today I’m instructing my administration to halt funding of the World Health Organization while a review is conducted to assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus”.

Trump criticized the international agency’s response to the outbreak, saying “one of the most dangerous and costly decisions from the WHO was its disastrous decision to oppose travel restrictions from China and other nations” that Trump imposed early on in the outbreak. … Fortunately, I was not convinced and suspended travel from China saving untold numbers of lives.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/trump-calls-for-halt-to-us-funding-for-world-health-organization-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

What Trump did not disclose is all of his own efforts to down play the pandemic, refusing to believe what he was being told in January. Now he is taking credit for saving lives in an effort to find blame on the World Health Organization.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Trump has an uncanny ability to make things worse with his daily tweeting and self-absorbed, self-center arrogance. His recent false proclamation that the decision to reopen the country’s ailing economy ultimately rests with him, not the governors is the best example of how delusional he is. After over 3 years of constant daily news coverage and twitters from Trump creating crisis, after crisis, after crisis of his own making, even bringing the country close to nuclear war with North Korea, the United States is now faced with a major pandemic revealing a man who is totally unfit, incompetent and totally unprepared to be President.

Trump can no longer have his political rallies to gin up his base because of the pandemic. Trump has now taken to daily news briefings and updates and taking benevolent credit for the help and assistance being given the states, except when things go wrong. Trump refuses to accept the fact that he does not know what he is talking about. Trump consistently contradicts his medical advisors and lies to the public with what is going on. He also lashes out against his critics and the news media during his daily briefings. Trump is now proclaiming that only he can re open the economy and that the Governors cannot which is absurd and simply not at all true.

Trump supporters look upon him as the messiah that is cult like. As the crisis continues, the odds are high that he will only complicate the crisis, making things MUCH worse and create another crisis within a crisis. More people will likely die because of his mishandling of it. Trump will make things worse because he just cannot help it. Our Bone Spur Commander in Chief thinks he is in a war and not a worldwide heath crisis. President Trump is now creating his own “fog of war” which is increasing casualties’ way beyond comprehension as well as destroying the economy in the process.

One thing is certain. Trump is a cancer on our body politic that must be removed, the sooner the better, or the patient will die like so many have died in the pandemic.

SANDERS ENDORSES BIDEN

On Monday, April 13, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden for president in no uncertain terms saying:

“We need you in the White House. I will do all that I can to see that that happens, Joe.”

Sanders pledge to Biden to help him defeat President Donald Trump in the general election as they agreed to launch a series of task forces to work jointly on policy matters. The endorsement marks a critical moment for Biden as he seeks to unify and turn his focus toward President Donald Trump. Prior to the endorsement, Biden was reaching out to Sanders supporters telling them he needed them.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/bernie-sanders-endorses-joe-biden/index.html

Sanders’ quick endorsement of Biden in mid-April, a mere 5 days after he suspended his own campaign, was a stark contrast to the 2016 Democratic race. In 2016, after a brutal primary, Sanders refused to drop out all the way to the convention demanding major concessions from the Democratic Party that he has never been a member of until he runs for President.

After Clinton secured the nomination, Sanders finally endorsed Clinton and held events for her. But the Clinton campaign felt Sanders showed lukewarm support for her. Sanders was not as helpful as he could have been in getting the message out when and where they needed it to defeat Trump. Nationwide, one poll found that more than 1 in 10 people who voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton ended up supporting Trump in the general election.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-voters-helped-trump-win-white-house-could-they-do-n1145306

A mid-March, 2020 poll in Michigan, one of the 5 battleground states that will decide the election, found just 2 of 5 Sanders backers said they would vote Democratic in November, regardless of who became the nominee. Four in five said they’d be dissatisfied with Biden as the Democratic standard-bearer.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/democrats-confront-a-never-biden-contingent-127438

COMMENTARY

There is no doubt that Joe Biden needs the Sanders staunches supporters. It would be damn foolish for him to ignore Sanders supporters. There are 4 big differences that exist now than 4 years ago:

First: Hillary Clinton was viewed as seriously flawed and as a “Corporate Democrat” by the progressives while Biden was very successful as Obama’s Vice President.

Second: It is now very clear from the Mueller Report that Trump was put in office because of Russian interference with our elections and its happening again.

Third: Trump has now been in office for over 3 years, he has shown he is not fit to be President and his racism has become more pronounced.

Fourth: Trump has done more damage to the country than anyone could have possibly imagined. The middle class is shrinking while Trump’s tax cuts for the rich are paid for on the backs of the middle class.

For Sander’s supporters to support or again vote for Trump, or even worse, and not vote at all, would be a betrayal of much if not all what Sanders stands for and the issues he campaigned for and what he wants to accomplish.

NATIONAL POLLS RELEASED

Many still believe that Vice President Joe Biden can not beat Trump in a one to one race. But that was also the same for Bernie Sanders. Recent polls are showing that the race is indeed competitive and the Orange Cheeto is now imploding.

According to 3 national polls release last week, President Donald Trump’s job approval has taken a major hit as a growing number of Americans harbor doubts about his handling of the corona virus crisis.

Congress has not faired that well either. The 3 polls taken by Quinnipiac University Polling, Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Polling and CNN taken in April now show a difference than the Gallup poll taken in March.

MARCH GALLUP POLL

On March 24, a Gallup poll found that 6 in 10 Americans approve of the job Donald Trump was doing to combat the coronavirus crisis, pushing the president’s approval rating to 49%, the highest of his presidency. According to the March Gallup poll, voters were largely giving Trump positive marks for his handling of the pandemic, with 94% of Republicans, 60% of independents, and 27% of Democrats approving of his efforts. That’s higher than his general approval rating among each group. The Gallup poll was conducted from March 13 through March 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

After the late March spike in Trump’s popularity as the pandemic ravaged the United States, his approval ratings have now fallen back to the mid-40% range, where they were before the huge spikes in cases, deaths and unemployment. As of April 9, there are now 16,000 dead as of April 9, jobless claims across the country with 17 million out of work and with 454,000 confirmed cases of the virus.

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLLING

“As the number of coronavirus cases spreads throughout the country, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, earns the highest approval rating for his handling of the response to the coronavirus … He is closely followed by state governors, but President Trump and Congress don’t fare quite as well on their handling of the response to the coronavirus:

Dr. Anthony Fauci: 78% approve, 7% disapprove;
“Your state’s governor”: 74%approve, 24% disapprove;
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: 59% approve, 17% disapprove;
President Trump: 46% approve, 51% disapprove;
Congress: 44% approve, 46% disapprove.

When it comes to President Trump’s response to the coronavirus, 55% of registered voters say that he has not acted aggressively enough, while 41% say his response has been about right and 2% say he’s been too aggressive.

“In a country gripped by crisis and divided by partisanship, public opinion is united when it comes to Dr. Anthony Fauci. Nearly 8 in 10 voters give him a resounding thumbs up for the job he’s doing responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s not the case for President Trump. More voters disapprove of his response than approve. Separately, they say he hasn’t acted aggressively enough in his response, … ”

A plurality of voters gives the president a failing grade on the way he has communicated information about the coronavirus to the American people:

25% give Trump an A;
17% give him a B;
14% give him a C;
12% give him a D;
31% give him an F.

More than 8 out of 10 registered voters, 85%, say they are either very (50%) or somewhat (35%) concerned they or someone they know will be infected with the coronavirus, a spike of 31%.

Three-quarters of voters say they are either very concerned (39%) or somewhat concerned (36%) that they or someone in their family will need to be hospitalized because of the coronavirus.

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY 2020 PRESIDENTIAL POLL RESULTS

In a head to head matchup between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, Biden beats Trump 49 – 41%.
Republicans go to Trump 91 – 7%, while Democrats go to Biden 91 – 4% and independents favor Biden 44 – 35%.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf

REUTERS/IPSOS CORE POLITICAL POLL

Following are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 6-7, 2020 on behalf of Thomson Reuters:

The April 8, 2020 Reuters/Ipsos Core Political revealed Americans are increasingly adjusting their lives around the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic, fewer Americans think that the country is headed in the right direction, and approval on the president’s handling of the pandemic has decreased. Healthcare and the economy continue to be the issues that concern Americans the most.

According to the poll, President Trump’s approval rating has dipped back after a brief bounce. President Trump’s approval rating has returned to 40% among all Americans. Trump’s approval rating continues to fall along party lines. President Trump holds the approval of 86% of Republican registered voters, and just 9% of Democratic registered voters.

American approval of the president on his handling of COVID-19 has dropped six points from last week (48%) to 42%.

For this survey, a sample of 1,116 Americans age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 989 registered voters, 480 Democratic registered voters, 376 Republican registered voters, and 73 independent registered voters.”

CNN POLL

CNN commissioned telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from April 3-6, 2020 among a sample of 1,002 respondents. The landline total respondents were 350 and there were 652 cell phone respondents.

The CNN two polls and the poll questions and results are as follows:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Poll period April 3-6, 2020:

44% Approve,
51% Disapprove,
5% No opinion

Poll Period March 4-7, 2020:

43% Approve,
53% Disapprove,
4% No opinion

Do you think the federal government has done a good job or a poor job of preventing the spread of novel coronavirus, sometimes referred to as COVID-19, in the U.S.?
Poll conducted from April 3-6, 2020:
41% GOOD JOB
55% POOR JOB
4% NO OPINION

Poll Conducted from March 24-29, 2020:
48% GOOD JOB
47% POOR JOB
5% NO OPINION

Which comes closer to your view about where the U.S. stands in the coronavirus outbreak:
Poll conducted April 3-6, 2020
The worst is behind us: 17%
The worst is yet to come: 80%
No opinion: 3%

REAL CLEAR POLITICS POLL AGGREGATE

Founded in 2000, RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a Chicago based political news and polling data aggregator. It compiles polling data history from as many sources available and then projects plus or minus trends in the polling data. On March 23, Real Clear Politics posted the following:

“Since Super Tuesday, four general election trial heat polls have been released that break down the results by age. Biden, who beats Trump in all four surveys, is the leader among young voters in all of them, usually by blowout margins.

CNN has Biden winning the under-35 vote over Donald Trump, 64% to 33%. For Quinnipiac, it’s 59% to 30%. YouGov and Emerson published data for the under-30 vote. For YouGov, Biden was up 55% to 23%, and in Emerson, it’s 56% to 44%.

How does that compare to the last two presidential elections? Regarding Hillary Clinton’s performance, Biden does generally better. In the 2016 exit poll, she beat Trump 55% to 36% among under-30 voters, and 51% to 41% among voters in their thirties.

When you look at the CNN and Quinnipiac numbers, Biden also appears to be meeting Barack Obama’s 2012 standard—among voters under 30, he beat Mitt Romney 60% to 37%. And even if he’s a little behind Obama’s pace with young voters in the YouGov and Emerson polls, Biden is outperforming Obama with the senior citizen vote. Obama lost the 65-and-over vote by 12 percentage points, while Biden wins with seniors in every March poll except Emerson. And in that one, he only loses by four. In other words, Biden has broader generational appeal than Obama.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/23/think_joe_biden_has_a_young_voter_problem_think_again_142733.html

RALLY ROUND THE FLAG

President Donald Trump took to declaring himself a “wartime president”. His appointed Surgeon General also said “This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment”. Trump knew full well that the wartime references would give him a bump in popularity for his reelection bid. It’s called “rally round the flag” effect.

The rally ’round the flag effect is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support for a President of the United States during periods of major crisis or war that threatens the United States. The rally ’round the flag” effect can reduce criticism of governmental policies. It is a political science theory that political scientist John Mueller suggested in 1970 in his a landmark paper called “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”.

In times of major crisis, usually in time of war and national threat, the American public usually views a President as the embodiment of national unity, an the president’s popularity goes up and it does not last.

The biggest problem with the “Rally Round The Flag” poll is short term as the crisis subsides. The best example is 9-11 where President George W. Bushes popularity soared to over 90% and he left office with approval ratings in the 30’s.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It comes as no surprise to political pundits that Trump’s job approval ratings are on the decline. The 49% approval rating Trump had in March is probably the highest it is going to be as the corona virus crisis continues and the economy goes into a recession or even a depression. Before the pandemic, Trump was relying upon the booming economy to give him a certain reelection victory. The disastrous way Mr. Trump and his administration have been handling the crisis is no doubt a major reason his popularity is going go down and voters are seeing what he is: a pathological liar and totally inept.

Trump’s staunches supporters will no doubt say all the polls were wrong last time, they are wrong now, and that Trump will win again. What the Trump supporters seem to ignore is that Trump must now run on his record of broken promises, irrational behavior and bullying voters will not cut it. Burning down the country is no way to govern.

After over 3 years of constant daily news coverage and twitters from Trump creating crisis, after crisis, after crisis of his own making, even bringing the country close to nuclear war with North Korea, the United States is now faced with a major pandemic revealing a man who is totally incompetent and totally unprepared to be President. The pandemic just may throw this country into a great depression, yet his Republican supporters insist on giving Trump high marks for handling the crisis in all the polls. Sooner rather than later, those Republicans who have lost their jobs or a loved one to the pandemic will come to the realization that the approach Trump wanted to take was to let the disease just “wash over the country” which is what he said early on in the “Situation Room” of the White House.

Trump has an uncanny ability to make things worse with his daily tweeting and self-absorbed, self-center arrogance. Trump has turned his daily news briefings on the virus and what is being done into an airing of grievances and attacking the press instead of useful updates on the public health crisis. He is using the daily briefing as a substitute for his rally’s that he cannot have because of the pandemic.

His supporters look upon him as the messiah that is cult like. As the pandemic worsens, which is most assured, the odds are high that he will only complicate the crisis, making things MUCH worse and create another crisis within a crisis. More people will die because of his mishandling of it.

Trump will make things worse because he just cannot help it. Our Bone Spur Commander in Chief has a version of the “Midas Touch” except that everything he touches turns to crap.

Vice President Joe Biden faces the most important decision of his political career: choosing a vice president. Biden has already committed to picking a woman. A big part of what makes the selection so important is that Biden is 77 years old, will turn 78 soon after if elected, and if he wins, he would be the oldest American president in history. After a first term, he will be 82 and after a second term 86.

Biden’s Vice-Presidential decision will also be made with the backdrop of the corona virus pandemic. In addition to the death toll, the pandemic is having a devasting effect on the world economy. The corona virus pandemic recovery will no doubt shape the Biden administration as much as the pandemic has defined the Trump Administration as being incompetent and revealing Trump as man unfit to be President.

Biden will need a Vice President that must have immediate credibility and who can help in crisis recovery. He will need someone he can rely on and who is dependable under pressure, in time of crisis, and who is more concerned about the good of the country and not the pulse of the President. Biden is also facing pressure on multiple fronts. The Democratic Party is far more diverse racially, ethnically and ideologically than the Republican Party could ever hope to be and has become the Trump Party

https://apnews.com/8ee97c620963e17b6833068dfe184694

Biden is under pressure to select an African American running mate, especially a black woman. According to the polls, it was African American women who propelled his nomination after he lost the first 3 primaries to Bernie Sanders and he recovered with his win in South Carolina. After South Carolina, Biden won virtually every primary and now has an insurmountable lead that compelled Bernie Sanders to finally withdraw from the race.

NAMES BEING CIRCULATED

On April 8, the Washington Post published an article written by columnist Aaron Blake where he identifies and ranks those women who make the most sense to be Joe Biden’s running mate for Vice President. Follow is an extensively edited version of the list, with additions and changes made in the rankings and with the link to the story:

11. Stacey Abrams: Stacey Abrams is a former Georgia State Representative. Abrams in 2018 ran an exceptionally strong campaign for Georgia Governor. Soon after her loss, she played down thoughts of her running for President and instead said she would consider being the Vice-Presidential nominee. She has not served in any office beyond the state legislature, but she has popularity within the party. Biden may want to pick her in hopes of making a “purple state” a blue state” and making it Democratic. However, are far mor more-competitive battleground states in play.

10. Former United Nations Ambassador Susan E. Rice: She served on the National Security Council and in a high-ranking State Department role in the Clinton administration. She was United Nations ambassador and national security adviser in the Obama administration. She’s also an African American woman and has recently shown an interest in elective politics, and considered running against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) this year. The one most obvious drawback here: She was in line to possibly become President Barack Obama’s secretary of state but withdrew after the Benghazi, Libya, attack threatened to make her confirmation “lengthy, disruptive and costly,” in her words. She came under sharp criticism for being misleading about the nature of that attack.

9. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth: Senator Duckworth is from Illinois and a former member of the House. She is a Purple Heart recipient who lost both of her legs in Iraq conflict and was the first disabled woman elected to Congress. In 2018, she became the first senator to give birth while in office. She has a diverse background as the daughter of a Thai mother of Chinese descent.

8. U.S. Representative Val Demings: Although she has been in federal office for just a little more than three years, she served as one of the House Impeachment Managers that impeached President Trump. She is an African American and a former Police Chief of Orlando, Florida. In 2006 she was a much-hyped House candidate in the 2012 election and lost. She went on to run for mayor of Orange County, Fla., but dropped out in 2015.

7. U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto: Senator Cortez Masto was elected to the Senate in 2016 and previously served as Nevada’s attorney general for two terms. The Democrats have the advantage of winning Nevada in that it has trended to the left in recent years. What is more important is that she is Hispanic, as is Michelle Lujan Grisham, and a female Hispanic will help Biden in the states of New Mexico, California, Texas and Arizona. The Hispanic population is generally concentrated in southern border states, led by New Mexico (49.1% Hispanic), Texas (39.6% Hispanic), California (39.3%) and Arizona (31.6%). In 2000, there were 10 states that had Hispanic populations of at least 10% of the total. The Hispanic vote could easily result in a win in any close race.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/13-states-with-recent-hispanic-population-growth

6. N.M. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: Governor Lujan Grisham was elected New Mexico’s first Democratic Hispanic Governor in 2018. She’s among the relatively few Hispanic women who currently serve in high office in the United States, but is unknown nationally until recently because of her dealing with the pandemic (see below). Lujan Grisham is a former U.S. House member and former chairwoman of the congressional Hispanic caucus and knows how Washington works. Although New Mexico is not a battleground state with only 5 selectorial college votes, Lujan Grisham’s Hispanic background could help Biden with the emerging Hispanic populations in swing states.

5. Senator Elizabeth Warren: The Massachusetts Senator Warren could help unite the party after the Democratic primary. She overlaps with Independent Senator Bernie Sanders on many policies and could help make sure those voters don’t stay home or cross over and vote for Trump. She will turn 71 in June and for that reason would not be the best candidate as Vice President for 78 year old Biden. Warren was viciously attack by Trump early on for her claim of Native American heritage, and no doubt she will be attacked again.

4. U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin: This potential pick for Vice President comes from one of the battleground states Biden needs to get elected. Baldwin has served as a senator from Wisconsin since 2012, when she became the first openly gay person ever elected to the Senate. Two years after Trump’s narrow win in Wisconsin, she won reelection by 11 points in 2018.

3. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: Michigan is one of the three key battleground states that Trump carried narrowly in 2016, with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin being the other two. Governor Whitmer has been among Trump’s most vocal critics during the coronavirus outbreak so much so that Trump referred to her as “that woman” and he told Vice President Pence not to call Whitmer because of her criticism. Trump’s handling of the pandemic and the federal response to the states is turning more and more into a presidential election year issues and she has been at the forefront.

2. Senator Kamala D. Harris: California Senator Harris is the most logical choice by many. She’s the only African American woman serving as either a governor or senator. After an early and impressive campaign beginning which included 20,000 at her announcement, her campaign faltered. She is a former Attorney General of California who earned a reputation as a highly aggressive prosecutor. It was her aggressive approach as a prosecutor that emerged during one early Presidential debate when she attacked in highly personal terms former Vice President Biden over his past position on school busing. Notwithstanding, Harris could easily be an effective Vice-Presidential candidate assuming the attack role reserved for Vice Presidential candidates.

1. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar: The Minnesota Senator gave Biden a major boost in his campaign when she dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden before the Super Tuesday primaries helping Biden win her home state. Klobuchar earned strong reviews for her debate performances. She has the kind of Midwestern appeal that will help in states as Michigan or Wisconsin. She is considered a more pragmatic candidate and for that reason would not appeal to most progressive who supported Bernie Sanders and who want Medicare-for-all which she criticized in the debates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/11-most-logical-picks-joe-bidens-vice-president-ranked/

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

A. GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM

New Mexico has become accustomed to its Governors having higher ambitions and seeking the office of President or Vice President. Bill Richardson was said to want to be Vice President under Bill Clinton, was appointed UN Secretary by Clinton and then later ran for President himself. Gary Johnson ran for President as the Libertarian candidate for President in 2019. Even former Republican Governor “She Who Must Not Be Named” was said to have high hopes on a national level, especially after she spoke at the Republican National Convention, until she had a Christmas Pizza Party in a luxury hotel room in Santa Fe and we all found out what many knew about her privately.

On Sunday, April 12, Governor Lujan Grisham upped her national profile with an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” when she told host Jake Tapper that she’ll do “what’s right” for her state to slow coronavirus spread even if President Donald Trump eases up on social distancing guidelines come May and said “We’re going to make the decisions that safeguard New Mexicans.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/new-mexico-lujan-grisham-coronavirus-cnntv/index.html)

Lujan Grisham was also profiled in a story in the Washington Times when she expanded her mass gatherings ban to combat spread of the coronavirus to include churches and other houses of worship on Easter saying “While this will be emotionally difficult for so many New Mexicans, public health must be the top priority. The only way to slow the spread of COVID-19 is by staying home and minimizing all person-to-person contact”.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/michelle-lujan-grisham-new-mexico-governor-expands/

New Mexicans should feel a sense of pride that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is being mentioned as former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate. Notwithstanding, New Mexico needs Governor Lujan Grisham here and now. She has been Governor now for less than 15 months and must deal not only the pandemic but the inevitable financial crisis that has been bought on to the state revenues as a result of the imploding New Mexico Oil industry. She has already announced a special session for June.

It is clear that the corona virus is a very infectious disease that is spreading like a wild fire throughput the world, the United States and now New Mexico. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is earning high marks with dealing the crisis. She is taking action to get a handle on the health crisis and it’s called leadership. There is no doubt that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham knows what she is doing and declaring a “Public Health Emergency” was without a doubt the right call.

Governor Lujan Grisham has the experience, knowledge and credentials to deal with the pandemic crisis. From 2004-2007 she served as the Secretary of the Department of Health, the agency that now assumes power in making decisions regarding coronavirus and public safety. The Governor also served as a longtime director of the New Mexico Agency on Aging, now the Aging and Long-Term Services Department, experience that is timely because the coronavirus is most serious for individuals over 60, many of whom are in nursing facilities that the Governor as a cabinet secretary oversaw.

If Governor Michelle Lujan in fact gets a phone call from Joe Biden’s for an interview, we should all hope that she says very politely: “Mr. Vic President, I am deeply honored, thanks, but no thanks. I need to stay home for now and finish the job I have started, at least for the next 6 years”.

B. BIDEN SHOULD SELECT FORMER FIRST LADY MICHELLE OBAMA

The one woman that seems to be absent from a number of lists for Vice-Presidential for Joe Biden is former First Lady Michelle Obama. She should seriously be considered and asked to continue her family’s service to our country in a time when the type of leadership she could bring is so desperately needed.

Michelle Obama is product of Chicago public school system. The former first lady studied sociology and African-American studies at Princeton University. After graduating from Harvard Law School in 1988, she joined the Chicago law firm Sidley & Austin, where she later met future President Barack Obama.

After a few years, Mrs. Obama decided her true calling was working with people to serve their communities and their neighbors. She served as assistant commissioner of planning and development in Chicago’s City Hall before becoming the founding executive director of the Chicago chapter of Public Allies, an AmeriCorps program that prepares youth for public service.

In 1996, Mrs. Obama joined the University of Chicago with a vision of bringing campus and community together. As Associate Dean of Student Services, she developed the university’s first community service program, and under her leadership as Vice President of Community and External Affairs for the University of Chicago Medical Center, volunteerism skyrocketed.

Mrs. Obama continued her efforts to support and inspire young people during her time as First Lady. In 2010, she launched Let’s Move!, bringing together community leaders, educators, medical professionals, parents, and others in a nationwide effort to address the challenge of childhood obesity. As the first African American First Lady, she inspired generations of African American girls and young woman. She also protected and raised two fine daughters under the glare of the White House press core.

One thing for certain is Michelle Obama could bring a sense of true excitement to the Presidential race, once again creating a solid working relationship not only with a President Joe Biden but also new First Lady Dr. Jill Biden. Also being the wife of former President Barack Obama can only help.