On February 20, the New Mexico legislature ended having enacted a $7.6 Billion dollar budget for the 2020-2021 fiscal year. The enacted budget raised annual spending by $536 million, or by nearly 8% over last year’s budget. The increase in spending was a result of record-breaking oil production in the Permian Basin with the state originally anticipating at least an $800 million increase in state government income during the coming budget year. The legislature also enacted a separate $49.5 million in capital outlay projects. Oil and natural gas represent 39% of New Mexico’s General Fund revenues. The 2020-2021 fiscal year begins July 1.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti

Passage of the $7.6 billion budget plan for the 2021 budget year was predicated on oil averaging $52 per barrel. Within one month of adjournment of the New Mexico legislature, the corona virus hit the country and hit New Mexico. Within two months after the New Mexico Legislative session ended the oil price war between Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exports (OPEC) hit the state coffers harder. The result is that the 2020 budget enacted by the New Mexico legislature has been blown apart and the state is faced with a projected $2.5 Billion dollar deficit.

The price of crude oil per barrel had plummeted to an alarming $21 dollars a barrel and as of April 9, rebounded to $31.48 a barrel. With each $1 drop a barrel in oil prices, the state loses upwards of $22 million in direct oil and gas revenue over a full year. Governor Lujan Grisham has announced that she intends to convene a special session to hammer out and enact a new budget that begins on July 1, 2020.

OIL PRODUCTION AND PRICE WAR

In 2017, an oil production agreement was entered into between Russia and the OPEC countries. The agreement suppressed world production approaching 2 million barrels of crude oil a day. The suppressed oil production output lead to very stable oil prices of $50 to $60 a barrel of crude oil. The Russia – OPEC agreement expired on March 31, and the oil producers as expected increased oil production that flooded the global markets with unprecedented levels of supply.

The Russia and OPEC price war sent Brent crude, the global benchmark, $20 a barrel and prompted energy companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. to plan for big spending cuts. Russia and OPEC are boosting their exports just as global oil demand suffers an historic contraction due to the coronavirus pandemic. On March 17 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. the rate of petroleum consumption was dropping by about 8 million barrels a day, or about 8% of global demand. The price of oil has rebounded and as of April 9, it was $31.48 a barrel.

“TENTATIVE” AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN OPEC AND RUSSIA

On April 9, it was announced that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia are negotiating agreements for major cuts in global output that will raise the price of oil. OPEC and Russia agreed in principle to collectively cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day. They also agreed to seek a 5-million-barrel daily production from the United States. If successful, the 15 million barrel per day reduction will be the biggest oil reduction in history. Worldwide consumption has fallen upwards of 65 million barrels of oil a day. The oil production is down from 100 million before the corona virus began and engulfed the world.

What is dicey at best is that OPEC and Russia want the United State government to impose state-mandated cuts in oil production and not the let the market force producers to scale back operations through low prices. The problem is that in the United States, demand for oil has fallen 30% to 14.4 million barrels a day which is the lowest level since 1990. US domestic gasoline consumption has also reached a 52-year low.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1442097/opec-tentatively-agrees-to-production-cuts.html

On April 10, OPEC and Russia will seek the five million barrel reduction in additional cuts from the U.S. and Canada and all the 20 nations comprising the G-20 energy ministers. When the the proposed deal emerged ahead of the meeting of oil ministers, the market’s reaction was negative and oil prices fell sharply after the details of the agreement emerged. An Opec official said talks to ratify the deal to cut 10 million barrels a day of production, or roughly 10% of global supply, would continue at the meeting of G20 energy ministers on Friday, April 10.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil reversed a near 11% rally to close down 4% at $31.48 a barrel on Thursday, April 9 as traders doubted the cuts would make up for the fall in demand resulting from the corona virus outbreak and questioned whether the non-Opec producers would contribute.

https://www.ft.com/content/c7a1e2e6-8c17-48d5-8c16-edce911b5cbb

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It is clear that the corona virus is a very infectious disease that is spreading like a wild fire throughput the world, the United States and now New Mexico. What is happening in the world, country and state are indeed historical in every sense of the word and cannot be downplayed. When it comes to New Mexico, the corona virus is short term compared to the effects of the oil price war on New Mexico’s economy and far more damaging on so many levels.

State officials and oil industry leaders are hoping a modest rebound in oil prices heading into summer as the corona virus contagion slows and businesses and consumer demand bounces back. For now, when it comes to New Mexico’s budget, the worst needs to be prepared for as actually happening. With a projected $2.5 Billion shortfall, there is no doubt that the NM Legislature and Governor Lujan Grisham are facing a major financial and government budget crisis. In times of crisis, drastic measures at times must be taken. Convening a special session, repealing the 2020-2021 budget and going to a “zero growth budget” are such drastic measures, but indeed must be done.

GOOD FINANCIAL TIME FOR STATE COMING TO AN END

On February 20, the New Mexico legislature within a few hours before adjourning enacted a $7.6 Billion dollar budget for the fiscal year that begins on July 1. It raised annual spending by $536 million, or by nearly 8% over last year’s budget. The increase in spending was a result of record-breaking oil production in the Permian Basin with the state the time anticipating at least an $800 million increase in state government income during the coming budget year. The legislature also enacted a separate $49.5 million in capital outlay projects.

The increase spending of $536 million included funding for Governor Lujan Grisham’s major priorities. An Early Childhood Trust Fund of $320 million was approved with the goal of putting $30 million annually toward the cause of early childhood programs needed for many years. The new budget includes $17 million for the new college scholarship program sought by Lujan Grisham which is much less than the Governor had initially requested.

TWO “GUT PUNCHES”

Just when things were looking great with respect to oil and gas royalties to finance state government, BAM the corona virus hits, a global oil price war ensues, and New Mexico gets a two gut punch hit in the process, all within one month since the adjournment of the New Mexico legislature. The global oil price war has hit hard the state’s revenue boom and it has caused the state budget surplus to evaporate literally within 8 weeks. The price of oil per barrel has now plummeted to $20 dollars a barrel.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti

NEW MEXICO’S RELIANCE ON OIL AND GAS REVENUES

A report by the New Mexico Tax Research Institute released in January, 2020, revealed that the oil and natural gas industry contributed more than $3.1 billion in tax revenue for fiscal year 2019, a dramatic 41% from the $2.2 billion generated the year before. The $3.1 billion was an increase of $910 million from 2018. Oil and natural gas represent 39% of New Mexico’s General Fund revenues, the highest share of all industries in recent history.

https://www.nmoga.org/FuelingNewMexico

The New Mexico oil industry’s historic energy production was enabling unprecedented investment by Mew Mexico in education. In FY 2019, the oil and gas industry contributed $1.36 billion to public education, representing a 28% increase over FY 2018. New Mexico’s highest producing oil and gas counties were Lea and Eddy County.

According to the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC), a $1 change in the average annual New Mexico price of oil has an impact of roughly $22 million on the state general fund. The LFC also said money generated from taxes and royalties on oil and natural gas accounted for roughly 36% of New Mexico’s total revenue for last year. For the enacted budget, oil prices were projected to average $52 per barrel of crude oil produced. According to the Governor’s Office, if oil prices were to hover at $30 per barrel through June, that would mean $138 million less in state revenue than projected for this fiscal year. Oil prices have now plummeted to a staggering $20 a barrel. Upwards of 25% of the state’s spending contained in its budget is for reserve funds.

This year, New Mexico’s two largest permanent funds, the Land Grant Permanent Fund and Severance Tax Permanent Fund, funds were supposed to pump an all-time high of nearly $1.1 billion into state schools, hospitals and other programs in the coming 2020-2021 budget year that starts July 1. The funding was supposed to have come from investment gains and inflows from taxes and royalties from oil production in southeast New Mexico. But that has all changed because of the oil price war.

SPECIAL SESSION OF NEW MEXICO LEGISLATURE TO BE CALLED

On March 19, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham sent a letter to the NM legislative leaders telling them that she will convene a special session to deal with the imploding oil prices that has caused a budget crisis for the state. It is likely that the session will be called in mid June. According to Governor Lujan Grisham, when she calls for the special session, it will focus on adjusting the proposed spending levels for the budget year that starts in July 1. It will also address public health needs to deal with the pandemic and crafting an economic relief package for workers, businesses and New Mexico communities.

There is no doubt that the $7.6 billion budget that takes effect July 1 and approved by the NM Legislature will have to be slashed significantly. The state is facing a $1 Billion dollar revenue downturn.

House Appropriations and Finance Committee Chairwoman Patricia Lundstrom, D-Gallup had this to say:

“We’re going to have to do some major re-calibration on the budget. … Everything is going to have to be on the table.”

In government financing the term everything means significant spending cuts, drawing down the state’s reserve levels and repealing one-time spending that was passed in the 2020 session, including the $320 million for a new early childhood trust fund and $180 million for statewide road repairs. Lundstrom also contradicted herself slightly when she added the approach to the new budget would likely not include across-the-board cuts, and that funding levels for health care programs and economic development initiatives should be kept intact.

The state does have what is called “the tax stabilization reserve fund” with funding set aside to deal with financial crisis such as what it happening now. The fund is called “the rainy day fund”. In December, the state was projected to have $1.7 billion in reserves at the end of the current budget year on June 31, or nearly 25% of all state spending.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1441810/nm-faces-difficult-choices-in-budget-redo.html

STATES SHARE OF $2 TRILLION FEDERAL STIMULUS PACKAGE

On March 25, the United State Congress enacted the $2 trillion Corona Virus stimulus package known as the CARES Act. Under the CARES Act, State governments that are leading the coronavirus response, which includes New Mexico, will get support from a $150 billion coronavirus expenditures fund. New Mexico will be eligible for up to $1.25 billion to reimburse costs resulting from the pandemic.

The federal funding legislation will provide immediate relief to New Mexicans. The $2 trillion package includes several provisions that would support New Mexican residents including direct relief for small businesses, emergency resources for hospitals, and direct payments to individual residents.

According to New Mexico Senator Tom Udall the funding is “targeted primarily to New Mexico as a state government and local/municipal governments.” The legislation includes the expansion of unemployment insurance to cover more New Mexicans and provides additional benefits during this health crisis. The extended unemployment insurance program increases the maximum unemployment benefit by $600 per week and makes sure that workers who are laid-off, on average, will receive full pay for four months.

The bill ensures all workers are protected regardless of their place of work and includes employees at small, medium, and large businesses .

According to an April 3 Channel 13 news report:

“Furloughed workers are allowed to stay on as employees to ensure that when the crisis is over, they will be able to continue work with their employer. The legislation provides $1,200 in direct payments to individual New Mexicans, $2,400 for couples who are married, and $500 per child. The full payment is available for those making up to $75,000 individually and $150,000 for those who are married. The amount is phased out for those who are above the income cap.

The bill provides over $150 billion for the healthcare system and includes funding for medical facilities and hospitals. It puts $100 billion into hospitals and the health system, over $1 billion into the Indian Health Service, and billions into investments.”

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-resources/what-the-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-means-for-new-mexicans/

GOOD FINANCIAL TIMES FOR CITY HALL COMING TO AN END

The City of Albuquerque had a fantastic fiscal year that began on July 1, 2019 and that will end on June 30, 2020. It is no exaggeration that the city in a real sense was flush with money during the fiscal year that is about to end.

For the fiscal year of July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, the Albuquerque City Council enacted an operating budget of $1.1 billion for the fiscal year. It was the first time in city history that the city operating budget exceed the $1 Billion figure. The 2019-2020 budget represented an overall 11% increase in spending over the previous year.

In April, 2019 a onetime $34.4 million dollar windfall to the city was reported from what was called an “orphan month”. The $34.3 million “one-time, lifetime” boost in revenues could not be applied by the city toward recurring costs. $29 million of the $34.3 million was applied to numerous one-time investments the Keller Administration felt important, including $6 million for public safety vehicles such as police cars for new police cadets, $2.3 million for park security, $2 million for the business recruitment and growth and $2 million for housing vouchers and related programs.

https://www.petedinelli.com/2019/04/04/orphan-month-windfall-of-34-million-used-for-1-1-billion-city-budget-no-new-taxes-city-to-charge-for-car-crash-clean-ups-and-vehicle-fires/

On October 7, 2019 the City Council approved a $30.5 million “Sports -Tourism” lodger tax package on a unanimous vote submitted Mayor Keller to upgrade and build sports facilities throughout the city. Revenue generated by the lodger’s is used to pay off the $30.5 million bond debt. Lodger tax revenues are supposed to be used to promote tourism and tourism functions and facilities and not general sports venues used by the general public.

http://documents.cabq.gov/budget/fy-20-proposed-budget.pdf

CITY FINANCING EXPLAINED

The current gross receipt tax added to virtually all retail sales of goods and services is 7.7850%. Businesses collect the tax on each sale made and the money is then sent to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and each month the state the distributes the city’s portion of tax collected to the city. Retail businesses make up about 25% of all the city’s gross receipts tax collected.

Gross receipts tax is collected and given to the city accounts for 67% of the City’s general fund revenue. The gross receipts tax revenue pays for basic municipal operations and essential services such as police protection, fire protection, solid waste collection, street repairs, animal welfare, parks maintenance, social services and the wages and benefits of over 6,000 city employees. For the current fiscal year that ends on July 31, 202, the city averaged upwards of $41 million in gross receipts tax revenue or $492 million dollars for the year. The remaining 33% of revenues needed to operate the city are generated other fees, other tax revenues and federal funding.

DRAMATIC DECLINE IN GROSS RECEIPTS TAX REVENUES FOR CITY

Under the City of Albuquerque City Charter, the Office of the Mayor prepares the yearly operating budget and normally it is submitted to the City Council on April 1 with the City Council holding budget hearings and making changes and must approve by law a balance city budget by July 1. The operating word is “normally”. All that changed with the corona virus, the mandated quarantine, the mandatory shut down of retail businesses, the loss gross receipts tax revenues and the loss of revenues by the state because of the oil crash.

According to Albuquerque Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Sanjay Bhakta, “It’s going to be brutal” and the city is facing a gaping budget hole due to the anticipated reduction in tax revenue. It is unclear how much the city will have to spend reacting to and battling coronavirus. There are new costs associated with cleaning and cleaning supplies and services for children and seniors. Some existing operating costs no doubt include , the city’s police officers and firefighters that are currently devoting to coronavirus-related matters.

Bhakta reported that the lodgers tax revenues are also down and in March came in at 29% lower than the same date last year. The decline in lodger tax revenues can be blamed on the hotel industry’s more recent struggles and decline in room occupancy. Bhakta said he’s concerned that what has happened with the lodgers tax may also happen with gross receipts tax.

$100,000 A DAY SPENT ON CITY RESPONSE

During the April 7 meeting of the Albuquerque City Council, Bhakta, told the council that the City is spending about $100,000 per day on its response to the corona virus. According to Bhakta, the expenses include employee overtime, cleaning supplies and “information technology” programs. The corona virus has yet to peak, and the daily expenses will go up before they go down and there is no way of determining when the health crisis will end.

The biggest problem is not the daily expenses to the city. Its anticipated that the city’s budget will take a major hit in the form of lost tax revenue. 67% of the City’s general fund revenues is from its share of gross receipts tax collected by the state. It is the general fund that is used to finance basic essential services such as police, fire and street maintenance and other basic city services.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1441397/city-of-abqs-coronavirus-costs-average-100k-a-day.html

City ordinance requires adequate reserve for each fiscal year to deal with unexpected contingencies. CFO Bhakta reported to the City Council the city does have a slight cushion of about $50 million in operating reserves set aside due to higher-than-expected gross receipts tax revenue over the past 7 months, but it’s not enough to absorb the expected losses in revenues. The challenge is having an adequate reserve for the fiscal year that begins July 1, which is mandated by city ordinance.

According to CFO Bhakta, the City will have a better sense of the loss of revenue in mid-May when the city gets its March gross receipts tax distribution from the state Taxation and Revenue Department.

CITY’S SHARE OF $2 TRILLION FEDERAL STIMULUS CANNOT BE USED AS BUDGET SUPPLEMENT TO MAKE UP FOR LOST REVENUES

The $2 trillion-dollar federal stimulus packaged known as the CARES Act has $150 billion for payments to the state, tribal and local governments. Each state is guaranteed at least $1.25 billion, but local governments with more than 500,000 people can seek their own direct share from their state’s pot. A spokeswoman for U.S. Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., said the local governments must file requests that are then certified by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

The problem with the $2 Trillion stimulus is that the legislation restricts the funding to “costs that are necessary expenditures incurred due to the coronavirus public health emergency between March 1 and December 30. It is expected that the city of Albuquerque will qualify for upwards of $150 million. However, the stimulus money can not be used for expenses outlined in existing budgets. In other words, the federal relief is not intended to make up for lost tax revenues like the city is faced with and which will have a crippling impact on the city’s budget.
News coverage can be found at these links:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1438922/lost-tax-revenue-to-have-brutal-impact-on-abq-city-budget.html

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/coronavirus-threatens-city-budget/5692185/?cat=500

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

For the full 8 years under the former Republican Mayor Administration and the former Republican Governor Administration, the city and state were hit hard because of the great recession to the extent that essential services were dramatically cut and city and state government were dramatically downsized all done in order to avoid any all tax increases to maintain their philosophy that all tax increases are bad and government is too big and needed to be downsized

Last fiscal year, both the City and State were finally able to get things back on tract primarily because tax revenues increased and a massive surplus resulting from the oil and gas revenues associated with the Permian Basin oil boom. Just as the city and state were pulling out of the 10-year great recession, the country, state and city get hit and get hit hard in the gut with the corona virus pandemic resulting in business closures, layoffs and the stock market crashing and the New Mexico oil industry imploding because the price of crude oil has gone from $50 a barrel to $20 a barrel.

No one knows for certain how long the economic shutdown from coronavirus will last, it could be weeks, months and perhaps even more. Additionally, no one knows for certain how long the price war between Russia and OPEC Countries will continue. The two events combined have pushed the price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate to $20.06 a barrel as of March 19, the lowest price per barrel of crude oil since 1998.

It is likely the City will not see another $1.1 billion dollar budget this year and not likely to see another for a number of years to follow. City hall is facing another period of declining revenues to the point that its budget will have to be slashed once again. The extent of the city’s financial crisis will no doubt be reflected in the Keller Administration’s proposed 2020-2021 budget, a budget that was supposed to have been released on April 1, but this is not normal times and city hall no doubt scrambling to figure out what to do during the financial crisis it faces.

It is also likely that the State will also suffer and that the slashing of the budget will have to be done, and fast. The Land Grant Permanent Fund (LGPF), also known as the Permanent School Fund, is one of the largest funds of its kind in the country, and every year provides more than a half-billion dollars in benefits to New Mexico’s public schools, universities and other beneficiaries . In fiscal year 2020, the Land Grant Permanent Fund generated $784.2 for New Mexico Schools. Now is the time to finally divert more money to address the education needs of the state with the fund to substitute money allocated in the new budget.

Further, now is the time to allocate funding form the “tax stabilization reserve fund” to deal with the budget crisis. The real problem is will it be enough to deal with the crisis or will the state deplete the entire reserve of $1.7 Billion within the upcoming year with no way of replenishing it because of the oil industry bust.

If the State and the City in fact plunge into another recession which is highly likely and its much deeper than the 10 year great recession that started in 2008, Governor Lujan Grisham as well as Mayor Tim Keller will start to look and sound like their former Republican predecessors saying “cut, slash and reduce taxes at all costs” and both just might wind up serving only one term as Governor and Mayor.

BECOMING A CRISIS MANAGEMENT MAYOR

On Wednesday, March 18, less than 48 hours after the Albuquerque City Council passed and amended “Emergency Powers Ordinance”, Mayor Tim Keller declared a “public health emergency” to deal with the corona virus epidemic in the city. The Mayor announced and signed the “Declaration of Local State of Emergency Due to Novel Corona Virus COVID-19” on a video posted on social media and distributed to the local new outlets. In the video announcement, Keller said the declaration “frees up financial resources for our city and flexibility so we can deal with this situation the best way possible.”

You can review the entire video here:

https://www.facebook.com/MayorKeller/videos/2994717313900761/UzpfSTEwNTQ4MTY4OTY6MTAyMTk0OTExNjc0ODM4OTI/

With his Public Health Emergency declaration, Mayor Tim Keller became the first Mayor in the city’s history to become a “crisis management Mayor” to deal with a major health crisis and epidemic. How Keller acts and leads in a substantive manner will likely determine if he is a one term mayor.

The emergency declaration allows the Keller administration to allocate city staff as necessary to address the current COVID-19 pandemic. It also allows for the city to make “emergency procurements” to protect the health and safety of citizens and property. It also serves as a request for state and federal assistance.

The Mayor’s Emergency Declaration” makes two specific requests for financial assistance from the New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management and state agencies and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The entire written Emergency Declaration can be read here:

http://www.cabq.gov/mayor/documents/emergecy-declaration.pdf

$100,000 A DAY SPENT ON CITY RESPONSE; EXPECT MAJOR HIT TO GENERAL FUND REVENUES

During the April 7 meeting of the Albuquerque City Council, Sanjay Bhakta, the Chief Financial Officer for the City, told the council that the City is spending about $100,000 per day on its response to the corona virus. According to Bhakta, the expenses include employee overtime, cleaning supplies and “information technology” programs. The corona virus has yet to peak, and the daily expenses will go up before they go down.

The biggest problem is not the daily expenses to the city. Its anticipated that the city’s budget will take a major hit in the form of lost tax revenue. 67% of the City’s general fund revenues is from its share of gross receipts tax collected by the state. It is the general fund that is used to finance basic essential services such as police, fire and street maintenance and other basic city services.

Albuquerque’s current gross receipts tax is 7.8750% and each quarter cent generates upwards of $60 million in revenues a year to the city. With retail businesses forced to closure under the state’s stay-at-home order, the city will inevitably see a major loss in gross receipts tax that will mandate major cuts to the general fund budget and that will have an impact on essential services.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1441397/city-of-abqs-coronavirus-costs-average-100k-a-day.html

A NEW LEVEL OF PUBLIC RELATIONS TO INFORM THE PUBLIC

Ever since Mayor Tim Keller assumed office on December 1, 2017, he has taken photo ops and press conferences to all new levels. Keller attends protest rallies to speak at, attends marches and political protests, attends heavy metal concerts to introduce the band, runs in track meets and participates in exhibition football games as the quarterback and enjoying reliving his high school glory days and posting pictures and videos on his FACEBOOK page.

With the corona virus pandemic, Keller is now conducting daily press briefings on the city’s efforts to deal with the corona virus and attempting to keep up with Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s daily briefings on the state level. The corona virus pandemic is also allowing Mayor Keller to take his public relations efforts to even higher levels to deal with the pandemic and to announce city initiatives and inform the public.

The best example of the new level of public relations is that Keller and his longtime political consultant Alan Packman, who now works full time for the City’s 311 call center, and other top Keller Administration Department Directors are conducting “virtual town hall” meetings. The town hall meetings are sophisticated telephone conference calls to thousands to provide to the public information and to answer the public’s questions regarding what the city is doing.

Mayor Keller makes the calls to city residences and he begins the call by telling the person who answers the phone, including cell phones, to stay on the line in order to participate. Instructions are given on how to ask a question of the Mayor. It’s is more likely than not that it’s the city’s 311 Call Center that is assisting with providing the phone numbers of targeted city residents to make calls to participate.

On April 1, Mayor Keller and Alan Packman, along with other key staff participants including an APD Deputy Chief and the Directors of Economic Development and of Human Services conducted a second virtual town hall. It was represented that upwards of 14,000 people were “on the line” participating in the townhall. The townhall allowed for questions that were screened as Alann Packman acted as the announcer and the one that identified the callers.

KELLER ANNOUNCES CITY INITIATIVES

On March 15, three days before Keller declared a “public health” emergency, the city announced it would continue essential services while maximizing distance between employees. It announced that all BioPark facilities will be closed through April 15. It likely the BioPark closure will be extended.

According to a news release, all employees who can will be allowed to “teleworking” to work from home. Non-essential employees who cannot telework were sent home. Essential employees who can work in the field such as solid waste workers will be asked to do so exclusively. Workers who are unable to go into work because of these policies are paid leave.

The City announced that the Westside Emergency Housing Center is be kept open 24-hours a day until further notice with the city screening and testing people who are using the shelter.

On March 30, the Keller Administration made the following announcements regarding city building and services:

CITYWIDE: All City buildings were closed to the public, as of 5 p.m., March 24. This includes City Hall.

CITY CLERK: All hearings were either postponed or will be held remotely.

PLANNING DEPARTMENT: Plaza del Sol, where the Planning Deaprtment is located, was closed to the public. Permitting will continues via telephone, while inspections and field work continue as normal.

ALBUQUERQUE-BERNALILLO COUNTY WATER UTILITY AUTHORITY: All walk-in payment locations are temporarily closed. Payments may be mailed or made online.

PARKS & RECREATION AND CITYWIDE YOUTH PROGRAMS:

All Spring Break youth programs have been canceled.
City golf courses are closed
All playgrounds in City parks are closed, although the parks themselves will remain open.
The Maloof Air Park is closed.
Horsemen’s Complex is closed; however, owners must continue to care for their animals.

ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY CITY SOCIAL SERVICE CENTERS

The Keller Administration announced that people who have medical needs that have been made worse by the corona virus will be able to get help at one of four Health and Social Services Centers in Albuquerque. According to Deputy Director of Public Health Gilbert Ramirez, each quadrant of the city has a center, and each has been designated a “mission critical” facility.

The services and items provided by the centers include monthly food boxes, limited supplies of diapers and hygiene products, and clothing. The centers also have an eviction prevention program funded by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development. Tenants facing eviction must have identification and a lease or payment history that reflects delinquency and how much is owed. The problem is the federal program has just under $47,000 available. The city is asking for donations for its motel voucher program for homeless people, particularly for those who have chronic medical problems and reduced immune systems.

Two community centers have been designated to provide emergency shelter for those who do not have the virus but are in the higher-risk older-age demographic. Individuals placed at the 2 centers must be referred from the West Side Emergency Housing Center.

CORONA VIRUS RESPONSE TEAMS

On March 19, 2020 Mayor Tim Keller activated what he called short- and long-term coronavirus response teams. The teams are responsible for identifying critical city plans related to a wide range of actions including: community health, emergency funding, kids programming, economic and housing impacts, workers’ well being. The teams also focus on what it will take to keep essential services going while considering socioeconomic consequences and social distancing and other public health precautions.

https://www.cabq.gov/office-of-emergency-management/news/mayor-keller-initiates-response-and-recovery-teams

MICRO-BUSINESS RELIEF PROGRAM

On Monday, March 30, in order to help small businesses in Albuquerque affected by the Corona Virus closures, Mayor Tim Keller and the city’s Economic Development Department announced a $500,000 Micro-Business Relief Program. It is a grant program that offered up to $5,000 to small businesses who meet the following requirements:

1. The business must have 5 or fewer employees, including the owner(s).
2. The business must be registered and physically located within Albuquerque city limits.
3. The business must have experienced financial hardship due to COVID-19.
4. The business must have been in business for at least 6 months.
5. Grant funds must be deposited into a business bank account and only be used for business expenses. The City of Albuquerque will make electronic deposits.
6. Business owners must agree to provide a report about the use and results of the grant funds six months after receipt.
7. Businesses that are franchises or restricted to patrons above the age of 18 or older will not be eligible for the award — like bars or smoke shops.

The city’s web page on the grant program with application can be found here:

https://www.cabq.gov/economicdevelopment/small-business/micro-business-relief-program

Mayor Keller had this to say in announcing the grant program:

“Albuquerque small businesses are vital not only to our economy, but to the vibrant fabric of our community. The next few months will be tough, and we’re committed to supporting our local economy through this unprecedented and uncertain time. Through the Micro-Business Relief Program, we’re supporting small businesses across Albuquerque that are hurting because of COVID-19. We reached out to business leaders and organizations to develop this program and fill a gap for small companies so they can stay afloat.”

On April 2, a mere 3 days after the grant program was announced, it was reported that more than 500 businesses applied for the micro-business grants, hundreds more than the program will be able to pay. The total grant funding was $500,000 and it provides for up to $5,000 in working capital grants dictating that only 100 businesses will be able to secure a grant.

GOING FORWARD WITH APPROVED CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

On April 1, the City of Albuquerque announced it was going forward with $70 million worth of construction projects in the next six months. According to city officials, the work will not only produce new facilities and improved infrastructure but also promote construction activity during the economy’s COVID-19-related ever-increasing slowdown. Virtually all of the projects have existing funding including the $128 million general obligation bond program city voters approved last November, 2020 NM Legislature appropriations and past bond cycle funding.

Albuquerque Chief Operating Officer Lawrence Rael had this to say about the construction projects:

“We know part of the recovery in the community is the economy … and how the economy rebounds after we get past this pandemic that we’re facing. Part of that is investing in our infrastructure in a way that makes sense for the community but also creates economic vitality.”

The $70 million dollars in construction projects include:

A $7 million International District public library
A pump station meant to thwart flooding in the city’s downtown core
A new Singing Arrow Community Center in Southeast Albuquerque
A West Side community center at 98th and DeVargas
A new field at the Jennifer Riordan Spark Kindness Sports Complex
Upgrading the pedestrian underpass at First and Central
Americans with Disabilities Act-related improvements in several areas of the city
Construction of a roundabout at 12th and Menaul

Included in the $70 million is installing new “pin curbing” and medians along parts of the Albuquerque Rapid Transit (ART) route. The ART Bus line has been temporarily suspended as a result of the corona virus pandemic. During the temporary closure, the city is constructing “pin curbs” which are concrete edging to form a barrier on the outside boundary of the dedicated bus lanes to prevent vehicles from traveling into the dedicated lanes.

Although the city and state are under “stay at home” orders to deal with the corona virus, construction is considered essential work under current state orders issued by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1439251/city-carries-on-with-planned-construction.html

CONVENTION CENTER UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PATIENT CARE

On April 4 , Mayor Keller announce that the Albuquerque Convention Center is under consideration for use as a potential space for COVID-19 patients. The east wing of the building would work as an emergency hospital and the west would could be used as a place for essential employees to stay if they need to quarantine and can’t go home. The Mayor said the convention center space is not needed right now, but that they will be reevaluating to make sure the space is ready in case they do need it. The former Lovelace Hospital on Gibson is the first choice for such use and it has upwards of 300 patient rooms.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/city-officials-evaluate-downtown-convention-center-as-potential-space-for-covid-19-patients/5692186/?cat=500

MURDER AND DOMESTIC VIOLENCE RATES RISE

On March 26, a Channel 7 investigative report found there have been 51 fewer people arrested on felonies when compared to the same time last year. There is also a 6% drop in police reports filed this year.

Notwithstanding, some say they are seeing more crime despite what the data says. In the same news report Peter Darrel Kindig, owner of Narrowgate Security Agency said businesses that are forced to close have been calling him, wanting his service and a new type of security system that alerts security officers in the field if there is suspicious motion.

According to Kindig:

“The number of car burglaries and business burglaries in the last 48 hours is completely off the chart. My phone is ringing off the hook. … People now don’t want just an alarm that goes off after they are burglarized. … They want something that alerts before the burglary takes place.”

https://www.koat.com/article/are-criminals-staying-home-too/31947490

Despite the coronavirus outbreak and the self-quarantine measures, the city’s increase in homicides is continuing. In 2019, Albuquerque had its 19th homicide on April 11 and on April 2, 2019 there were 17 homicides in the city.

On April 2, 2020, the Albuquerque Police Department announced there have been 19 homicides in the city in 2020, which is ahead of 2019’s record-setting homicide pace. The city’s 19th homicide happened around on Thursday, April 2nd near Central and University.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/albuquerque-on-pace-to-set-new-homicide-record/5690589/?cat=500

On April 5, the online news agency New Mexico Politcal reported that “domestic violence incidents in Bernalillo County reportedly jumped 78 percent, right in line with soaring unemployment, gun sales and other predictors of abuse. … Across New Mexico, domestic violence survivors and the shelters that serve them are confronting a new and uncertain landscape brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Stay-at-home orders have effectively kept victims inside with their abusers, depriving them of a safe time and place to call for help.”

https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2020/04/05/domestic-violence-shelters-have-no-shortage-of-beds-but-reports-of-abuse-are-on-the-rise/?mc_cid=b0fbedca06&mc_eid=d03b0979c3

KELLER APPOINTS 3rd CHIEF OF STAFF

On March 17, Mayor Tim Keller appointed 53 year old Michael Puelle, formerly CEO and lobbyist for Associated General Contractors (AGC) New Mexico, as his chief of staff. According to the news release announcing the appointment, Puelle “will manage and direct the day-to-day operations of the Office of Mayor, supervising a number of areas including public affairs, constituent services, communication, intergovernmental relations, strategic initiatives, community engagement, and administrative functions” Puelle replaces government affairs veteran Santiago Chavez as Keller’s Chief of Staff. making him the third one to hold the post under Keller.

For 10 years, Puelle was the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Public Policy and Government Relations for Associated General Contractors (AGC) New Mexico. In addition to lobbying for the general contractor’s association, he oversaw its state-wide strategic agenda, staff, budget, and programming, as well as directing and coordinating advocacy efforts and community engagement activities.

Sarita Nair remains Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) for the city. The CAO is a position mandated by the City Charter to supervise the overall daily affairs of government, and all city departments including the police and fire departments and city attorney’s office.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

A) A POLITICAL APPOINTMENT

The appointment of Michael Puelle by Mayor Keller as his new Chief of Staff was purely political. It raised more than a few concerns within city hall. The position is not mandated by the city charter nor created by ordinance, yet it clearly one of the top paid executives, at will positions, at city hall. The appointment makes political sense on many levels.

The appointment is consistent with the approach Keller is taking to help mitigate the economic damage cause by the pandemic to the Albuquerque business community and the city’s economy and going forward with major construction projects. It makes sense politically in that Keller will no doubt will be asking support of the construction industry and developers as he deals with the pandemic crisis and runs for another term. Keller will want and need their contributions either directly to his Mayor’s campaign or to measured finance committees set up to promote Keller’s election to a second term.

With the appointment of Puelle as his third Chief of staff by Mayor Keller, the construction industry and the city developers now have an executive they can rely on for help during the impending and likely recession to help orchestrate construction and development projects. Puelle’s connections and his friendships within the Associated General Contractors, and his connections within the construction and development industries will also come in handy as Mayor Tim Keller seeks his second term next year.

B) CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS

By all accounts, Mayor Tim Keller is taking as many initiatives that he can in order to deal with the corona virus pandemic. He appears to be doing his best to show leadership as he tries to keep up with the ever-evolving crisis and as he tries to follow the lead of Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. The city’s funding of small business grants and going forward with $70 million in construction projects will provide tangible work and progress that has been undertaken by the Mayor during the pandemic.

The number of corona cases in the city and state has yet to peak. There is no guarantee any of the major initiatives will be effective enough to deal with the pandemic let alone mitigate the inevitable recession the city will likely be confronted with within a year.

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-new-mexico/mayor-keller-albuquerque-officials-to-give-update-on-local-coronavirus-response/

C) VIOLENT CRIME RATES STILL PERSISTENT PROBLEM

On April 2, 2020, the Albuquerque Police Department announced there have been 19 homicides in the city in 2020, which is ahead of 2019’s record-setting homicide pace. The fact that “domestic violence” incidents in Bernalillo County reportedly jumped 78% since the corona virus outbreak, right in line with soaring unemployment, gun sales and other predictors of abuse, is an alarming trend that indicates the city’s violent crime rates are still escalating despite the quarantine or stay at home orders. Under Mayor Keller the city’s crime rates have continued and become even worse under his tenure.

CONCLUSION

In 2021, voters will be deciding if Mayor Tim Keller has kept his promises and done a good job. Voters will also be deciding if he has done a good job in managing and handling the delivery of city services in the middle of a epidemic, including public safety initiatives. How Keller reacts and the extent of leadership he provides that make a difference during the pandemic will have the effect of determining if Mayor Tim Keller is a one term Mayor.

For a elated blog article see:

Keller And Packman Together Again

New Mexico has two major government employee pension programs. The Public Employee Retirement Association (PERA) pension program has 50,000 state workers, municipal employees, judges, firefighters and law enforcement officers that participate and it pays benefits to about 41,000 retirees. The Education Retirement Board (ERB) has nearly 51,000 retirees and upwards of 61,000 active members, including teachers, school administrators and university professors.

Over the last few years, it has been reported the PERA pension programs for government employees is in serious financial trouble because of long term liabilities of benefits to paid retirees in the future will exceed literally by the billions the funds that are available. PERA’s estimated unfunded liability, which is the gap between future retirement benefits owed and expected future assets on hand, has increased over the past four years from $4.6 billion to $6.6 billion in unfunded liability.

The PERA’s retirement system’s funded ratio, which is the plan’s assets divided by its liabilities, was at 70%, but with the stock market crashing, it has gone down. The PERA governing board has set the goal to reach 100% funding of liabilities by the year 2043. The PERA pension system’s $6.6 billion in unfunded liabilities, or shortfall, has damaged New Mexico’s bond rating.

TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS ADOPTED

On March 2, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed into law changes to New Mexico’s PERA retirement system enacted by the 2020 NM legislature. Under the legislation enacted and signed into law, there will be a temporarily freeze of cost-of-living adjustments for some retirees. Starting are July 1, government employees and the government agencies they work for will pay more into the system. The changes are intended to better position the Public Employees Retirement Association to withstand an economic downturn.

The Pension Reform legislation is largely based on recommendations from a task force the Governor appointed last year to come up with pension reform recommendations. The Governor’s PERA Pension reform task force was essentially packed with public safety union representatives none who had any financial background in government pension planning. The task force final recommendations were heavily influenced by the PERA Executive Director Wayne Propst and Chief Investment Officer Dominic Garcia.

Public Safety Unions are a small fraction of the states work force and retirees. PERA’s Board Chair, Jacquelin Kohlasch, along with Executive Director Wayne Propst and Chief Investment Officer Dominic Garcia were appointed Task Force members. The chairman of the task force was the Governor’s Deputy Chief of Staff, a retired fire fighter and former fire union president who lobbied for enactment of the bill. Public Safety Unions are a small fraction of the states work force. No women were appointed to the task force.

The most controversial aspect of the reform bill involves the 2% cost of living (COLA) currently guaranteed to all retirees. The legislation freezes many retirees’ cost-of-living adjustments for two years that will save money. After the two year freeze, the legislation establishes a “profit-sharing” model for the annual cost-of-living adjustments that most retirees now receive. Rather than an automatic 2% increase in their pensions each year, the actual amount would fluctuate, anywhere from 0.5% to 3%, depending on investment returns.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1426696/lujan-grisham-signs-pension-changes-into-law.html

THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IS HERE

The changes enacted legislation was intended to better position PERA to withstand an economic downturn. That economic downturn is now here. In less than 2 months after the PERA reform legislation was signed into law, New Mexico’s two large public retirement systems have taken billion-dollar hits from the steep market downturn caused by actions taken in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The PERA and ERA pension funds rely on investment gains to help offset the difference between benefits owed over time and incoming contributions. The PERA retirement fund’s value has dropped from $16 billion at the first of January to down to $14 billion as of March 27.

What needs to be emphasized is that the stock market has crashed since the coronavirus outbreak due to concerns about rising unemployment levels and decreased consumer activity. The markets are fluctuating dramatically daily because of the pandemic and how the federal government is reacting to it, including the $2 trillion congressional stimulus package enacted.

Notwithstanding the large loss, the managers of both pension funds are saying the investment portfolio changes made to the funds in recent years will enable PERA to keep paying out benefits to retirees.

Wayne Propst, the Executive Director of the Public Employees Retirement Association had this to say about the losses in recent weeks:

“We’ve lost money, every investor has, but we could have lost a lot more money if we hadn’t taken a more defensive position. I don’t know how we could be in a better position than we are right now. … Nobody knows how this is going to play out.”

According to Propst, only 35% of the PERA pension funds are invested in equities which are affected by the fluctuating markets. The remaining funds, or 65%, are invested in bonds, alternative investments and in cash reserves.

According to Jan Goodwin, the Director of the Educational Retirement Board (ERB), ERB has a smaller percentage, at about 26%, of its funding in its portfolio invested in stocks. At the end of 2019, the total value of the ERB funds was upwards of $13.8 billion and it has dropped to $12 Billion. Goodwin said the market downturn will have to continue for an extended period time before seriously affecting the pension fund by saying:

“We’re not selling these investments and, over time, they’ll recover. We’re in good shape to keep paying out benefits.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1437470/number-of-nm-coronavirus-cases-grows-by-55-to-191.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Both Wayne Propst, the Executive Director of PERA and Jan Goodwin the Director of the ERB are downplaying the financial hit that both funds have taken in just one month because of the market crash and the investment losses. Propst and Goodwin both are being way too optimistic about the fate of both pension plans, no doubt because their own job security may be at stake if there in no quick rebound by the markets.

The blunt truth is the solvency of both PERA and ERB are tied to investment success and returns. The major losses such as what has happened in the last 6 weeks places both retirement programs in serious jeopardy.

PENSION REFORM RUSH JOB

The 2020 New Mexico legislature rushed pension reform during a 30 day short session at the insistence of Governor Lujan Grisham to implement her tasks force recommendations for PERA. The changes made to the PERA pension program were in no way real reform. The “reform” amounted to placing a band aid on a severed artery. The changes will not stop the flow of red ink from the pension program. Both pension programs are suffering from serious structural problems.

Rather than reducing Cost of Living Adjustments, the legislature should have made real adjustments such as increasing the age of retirement, change the formula to calculate retirement, make increases in contributions and infuse state funding into the pension funds, but only those that are underfunded. Better management of the pension funds and increasing returns on investment are always relied upon to pay for benefits, and the current PERA management investment team is not getting the job done.

PERA retirees can expect the New Mexico legislature will once again have to make further modifications in future years to the PERA pension programs because what was approved by the legislature will not get the funds to 100% solvency like they want. In the meantime, as retirees get older, they are now faced with the real possibility of their pension programs imploding at a time in their lives they can no longer be in the workforce.

CONCLUSION

Too bad, it did not have to be this way had the Governor and the legislature shown a little more patience and political will to address real pension reform and not rush it in a 30-day session. Pension reform should have been dealt with it in a 60-day session or a special session. It should have not been the product of a political agenda orchestrated by the Governor’s Pension Reform Committee and one of her Chiefs of Staff.

On March 13, the Atlantic published and insightful article by well know Republican political author and commentator Peter Wehner. Mr. Whener is a veteran of three Republican administrations: Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush. He is the author of The Death of Politics. He is an American writer and Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPPC), a conservative think tank. He is also a fellow at the Trinity Forum. Wehner is a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times and a contributing editor at the Atlantic. The Atlantic article is followed by further information on Trump’s dismantling of the National Security Coucil ‘ s global health security office and Trump’s treatment of the Governor’s.

Below is the article published by the Atlantic with the link:

The Trump Presidency Is Over

MARCH 13, 2020
By Peter Wehner
Contributing writer at The Atlantic and senior fellow at EPPC

“It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain.

When, in January 2016, I wrote that despite being a lifelong Republican who worked in the previous three GOP administrations, I would never vote for Donald Trump, even though his administration would align much more with my policy views than a Hillary Clinton presidency would, a lot of my Republican friends were befuddled. How could I not vote for a person who checked far more of my policy boxes than his opponent?

What I explained then, and what I have said many times since, is that Trump is fundamentally unfit—intellectually, morally, temperamentally, and psychologically—for office. For me, that is the paramount consideration in electing a president, in part because at some point it’s reasonable to expect that a president will face an unexpected crisis—and at that point, the president’s judgment and discernment, his character and leadership ability, will really matter.

David Frum: The worst outcome

“Mr. Trump has no desire to acquaint himself with most issues, let alone master them” is how I put it four years ago. “No major presidential candidate has ever been quite as disdainful of knowledge, as indifferent to facts, as untroubled by his benightedness.” I added this:

Mr. Trump’s virulent combination of ignorance, emotional instability, demagogy, solipsism and vindictiveness would do more than result in a failed presidency; it could very well lead to national catastrophe. The prospect of Donald Trump as commander in chief should send a chill down the spine of every American.

It took until the second half of Trump’s first term, but the crisis has arrived in the form of the coronavirus pandemic, and it’s hard to name a president who has been as overwhelmed by a crisis as the coronavirus has overwhelmed Donald Trump.

To be sure, the president isn’t responsible for either the coronavirus or the disease it causes, COVID-19, and he couldn’t have stopped it from hitting our shores even if he had done everything right. Nor is it the case that the president hasn’t done anything right; in fact, his decision to implement a travel ban on China was prudent. And any narrative that attempts to pin all of the blame on Trump for the coronavirus is simply unfair. The temptation among the president’s critics to use the pandemic to get back at Trump for every bad thing he’s done should be resisted, and schadenfreude is never a good look.

That said, the president and his administration are responsible for grave, costly errors, most especially the epic manufacturing failures in diagnostic testing, the decision to test too few people, the delay in expanding testing to labs outside the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and problems in the supply chain. These mistakes have left us blind and badly behind the curve, and, for a few crucial weeks, they created a false sense of security. What we now know is that the coronavirus silently spread for several weeks, without us being aware of it and while we were doing nothing to stop it. Containment and mitigation efforts could have significantly slowed its spread at an early, critical point, but we frittered away that opportunity.

“They’ve simply lost time they can’t make up. You can’t get back six weeks of blindness,” Jeremy Konyndyk, who helped oversee the international response to Ebola during the Obama administration and is a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, told The Washington Post. “To the extent that there’s someone to blame here, the blame is on poor, chaotic management from the White House and failure to acknowledge the big picture.”

Ben Rhodes: How Trump designed his White House to fail

Earlier this week, Anthony Fauci, the widely respected director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases whose reputation for honesty and integrity has been only enhanced during this crisis, admitted in congressional testimony that the United States is still not providing adequate testing for the coronavirus. “It is failing. Let’s admit it.” He added, “The idea of anybody getting [testing] easily, the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. I think it should be, but we’re not.”

We also know the World Health Organization had working tests that the United States refused, and researchers at a project in Seattle tried to conduct early tests for the coronavirus but were prevented from doing so by federal officials. Doctors at the research project eventually decided to perform coronavirus tests without federal approval.

But that’s not all. The president reportedly ignored early warnings of the severity of the virus and grew angry at a CDC official who in February warned that an outbreak was inevitable. The Trump administration dismantled the National Security Council’s global-health office, whose purpose was to address global pandemics; we’re now paying the price for that. “We worked very well with that office,” Fauci told Congress. “It would be nice if the office was still there.” We may face a shortage of ventilators and medical supplies, and hospitals may soon be overwhelmed, certainly if the number of coronavirus cases increases at a rate anything like that in countries such as Italy. This would cause not only needless coronavirus-related deaths, but deaths from those suffering from other ailments who won’t have ready access to hospital care.

Yascha Mounk: The extraordinary decisions facing Italian doctors

Some of these mistakes are less serious and more understandable than others. One has to take into account that in government, when people are forced to make important decisions based on incomplete information in a compressed period of time, things go wrong.

Yet in some respects, the avalanche of false information from the president has been most alarming of all. It’s been one rock slide after another, the likes of which we have never seen. Day after day after day he brazenly denied reality, in an effort to blunt the economic and political harm he faced. But Trump is in the process of discovering that he can’t spin or tweet his way out of a pandemic. There is no one who can do to the coronavirus what Attorney General William Barr did to the Mueller report: lie about it and get away with it.

The president’s misinformation and mendacity about the coronavirus are head-snapping. He claimed that it was contained in America when it was actually spreading. He claimed that we had “shut it down” when we had not. He claimed that testing was available when it wasn’t. He claimed that the coronavirus will one day disappear “like a miracle”; it won’t. He claimed that a vaccine would be available in months; Fauci says it will not be available for a year or more.

Trump falsely blamed the Obama administration for impeding coronavirus testing. He stated that the coronavirus first hit the United States later than it actually did. (He said that it was three weeks prior to the point at which he spoke; the actual figure was twice that.) The president claimed that the number of cases in Italy was getting “much better” when it was getting much worse. And in one of the more stunning statements an American president has ever made, Trump admitted that his preference was to keep a cruise ship off the California coast rather than allowing it to dock, because he wanted to keep the number of reported cases of the coronavirus artificially low.

“I like the numbers,” Trump said. “I would rather have the numbers stay where they are. But if they want to take them off, they’ll take them off. But if that happens, all of a sudden your 240 [cases] is obviously going to be a much higher number, and probably the 11 [deaths] will be a higher number too.” Cooler heads prevailed, and over the president’s objections, the Grand Princess was allowed to dock at the Port of Oakland.

On and on it goes.

To make matters worse, the president delivered an Oval Office address that was meant to reassure the nation and the markets but instead shook both. The president’s delivery was awkward and stilted; worse, at several points, the president, who decided to ad-lib the teleprompter speech, misstated his administration’s own policies, which the administration had to correct. Stock futures plunged even as the president was still delivering his speech. In his address, the president called for Americans to “unify together as one nation and one family,” despite having referred to Washington Governor Jay Inslee as a “snake” days before the speech and attacking Democrats the morning after it. As The Washington Post’s Dan Balz put it, “Almost everything that could have gone wrong with the speech did go wrong.”

Read: You’re likely to get the coronavirus

Taken together, this is a massive failure in leadership that stems from a massive defect in character. Trump is such a habitual liar that he is incapable of being honest, even when being honest would serve his interests. He is so impulsive, shortsighted, and undisciplined that he is unable to plan or even think beyond the moment. He is such a divisive and polarizing figure that he long ago lost the ability to unite the nation under any circumstances and for any cause. And he is so narcissistic and unreflective that he is completely incapable of learning from his mistakes. The president’s disordered personality makes him as ill-equipped to deal with a crisis as any president has ever been. With few exceptions, what Trump has said is not just useless; it is downright injurious.

The nation is recognizing this, treating him as a bystander “as school superintendents, sports commissioners, college presidents, governors and business owners across the country take it upon themselves to shut down much of American life without clear guidance from the president,” in the words of Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman of The New York Times.

Donald Trump is shrinking before our eyes.

The coronavirus is quite likely to be the Trump presidency’s inflection point, when everything changed, when the bluster and ignorance and shallowness of America’s 45th president became undeniable, an empirical reality, as indisputable as the laws of science or a mathematical equation.

It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain. The president, enraged for having been unmasked, will become more desperate, more embittered, more unhinged. He knows nothing will be the same. His administration may stagger on, but it will be only a hollow shell. The Trump presidency is over.

The link to the Atlantic article is here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/?fbclid=IwAR0246AV1NZqIqUH9a8DK1dtxV6fRoctMUwhi0lDEGV_3zeC-TmyY4FHsz0

TRUMP DISMANTLED NSC’s GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY OFFICE

In 2016, President Barack Obama created the pandemic preparedness office at the National Security Council after his administration was criticized for its initial response to the Ebola epidemic in 2014 and 2015. Hating all things Obama, President Trump dismantled the National Security Council’s global health security office. Trump did so even after his own bio defense preparedness adviser warned that a flu pandemic was the country’s No. 1 health security threat, the United States was not prepared. Trump dismissed the concern as be over reactionary.

A month after John Bolton became Trump’s national Security Advisor, Bolton nixed the pandemic preparedness office as part of an effort to streamline the agency. A number of top-notch global health experts left the administration in the wake of Bolton’s decision. Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said:

“Bolton’s chosen approach to NSC ‘streamlining’ involved decapitating and diluting the White House’s focus on pandemic threats. … [Closing the pandemic office] clearly reflected the White House’s misplaced priorities and has proven to be a gross misjudgment.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/18/coronavirus-did-president-trumps-decision-disband-global-pandemic-office-hinder-response/5064881002/

DESPERATE PLEAS MET WITH ARROGANT DEMANDS

“After days of desperate pleas from the nation’s governors, President Donald Trump took a round of steps to expand the federal government’s role in helping produce critically needed supplies to fight the coronavirus pandemic even as he warned the leaders of hard-hit states not to cross him.

“I want them to be appreciative,” Trump said Friday after the White House announced that he would be using the powers granted to him under the Korean War-era Defense Production Act to try to compel auto giant General Motors to produce ventilators.

Yet Trump — who hours earlier had suggested the need for the devices was being overblown — rejected any criticism of the federal government’s response to a ballooning public health crisis that a month ago he predicted would be over by now.

“We have done a hell of a job,” Trump said, as he sent an ominous message to state and local leaders who have been urging the federal government to do more to help them save lives.
Trump said he had instructed Vice President Mike Pence not to call the governors of Washington or Michigan — two coronavirus hotspots — because of their public criticism. “If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call,” Trump said.
…
Trump continued to suggest that states’ own failures were to blame for the needed intervention. “Normally these would be bought for states, just so you understand” he said.”

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2020-03-27/in-reversal-trump-uses-defense-production-act-for-virus-aid

THE “RALLY ‘ROUND THE FLAG PHENOMENON”

It comes as no surprise that President Donald Trump is declaring himself a “wartime president”. His appointed Surgeon General is now saying “This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment”. Trump knows full well that the wartime references will give him a bump in popularity for his re election bid. Its called “rally round the flag” effect.

The rally ’round the flag effect is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support for a President of the United States during periods of major crisis or war that threatens the United States. The rally ’round the flag” effect can reduce criticism of governmental policies. It is a political science theory that political scientist John Mueller suggested in 1970 in his a landmark paper called “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”. In times of major crisis, usually in time of war and national threat, the American public usually views a President as the embodiment of national unity, an the president’s popularity goes up and it does not last. The best example is 9-11 where President George W. Bushes popularity soared to over 90% and he left office with approval ratings in the 30’s.

President Trump is no different when it come the “rally around the flag” phenomenon . On March 24, the on line news agency Bloomberg published a story that a recent Gallup poll found that six in 10 Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing to combat the coronavirus crisis, pushing the president’s approval rating to 49%, the highest of his presidency. According to the poll voters are largely giving Trump positive marks for his handling of the pandemic, with 94% of Republicans, 60% of independents, and 27% of Democrats approving of his efforts. That’s higher than his general approval rating among each group. The Gallup poll was conducted from March 13 through March 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/trump-s-handling-of-coronavirus-approved-by-60-in-gallup-poll-k86e29ot?fbclid=IwAR3M2adwT_N_nTpvDAS2HBYrwnPkkvRitm5CwhCjClKl0JASuh53KYzaz-o

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The rally ’round the flag” effect has a short shelf life. Trump has probably hit the highest number of 49% he is going to get, which is far less than what other Presidents experienced during time of crisis. It is more likely than not with the way Mr. Trump and his administration is handling the crisis his popularity will go down.

After over 3 years of constant daily news coverage and twitters from Trump creating crisis, after crisis, after crisis of his own making, even bringing the country close to nuclear war with North Korea, the United States is now faced with a major pandemic revealing a man who is totally incompetent and totally unprepared to be President. The pandemic just may throw this country into a great depression, yet his Republican supporters insist on giving Trump high marks for handling the crisis with the Gallup Poll revealing that Trump has a 94% approval rating for handling the crisis among Republicans.

Trump has an uncanny ability to make things worse with his daily tweeting and self-absorbed, self-center arrogance. His supporters look upon him as the messiah that is cult like. As the pandemic worsens, which is most assured, the odds are high that he will only complicate the crisis, making things MUCH worse and create another crisis within a crisis. More people will die because of his mishandling of it. A good example is the instructions he gave to Vice President Mike Pence to tell the Governors to be appreciative for his help, which is akin to asking a person dying of thirst demanding they say “thank you” before they are allowed a drink of water.

Trump will make things worse because he just cannot help it. Our Bone Spur President and Commander in Chief thinks he is taking us to war. It’s a war which in all likely our casualties would be thousands less had he acted back in January like a true leader and not like a self-center Colonel Sanders stuffing his face eating Kentucky Fried chicken all day long in the White House residence.

It was on March 16, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham issued her first public health order. Since the corona virus pandemic has resulted in self quarantine or “shelter orders” on the city, there was early data suggesting that crime was down.

On March 26, a Channel 7 investigative report found there have been 51 fewer people arrested on felonies when compared to the same time last year. There is also a 6% drop in police reports filed this year.

Notwithstanding, some say they are seeing more crime despite what the data says. In the same news report Peter Darrel Kindig, owner of Narrowgate Security Agency said businesses that are forced to close have been calling him, wanting his service and a new type of security system that alerts security officers in the field if there is suspicious motion.

According to Kindig:

“The number of car burglaries and business burglaries in the last 48 hours is completely off the chart. My phone is ringing off the hook. … People now don’t want just an alarm that goes off after they are burglarized. … They want something that alerts before the burglary takes place.”

https://www.koat.com/article/are-criminals-staying-home-too/31947490

During one of his many daily coronavirus response briefings, Mayor Keller had this to say:

“The crime situation in Albuquerque is holding steady and actually down slightly. Because more people are home, there are a lot of theories on this could be why crime is slightly down.”

HOMICIDES CONTINUE

Despite the coronavirus outbreak and the self-quarantine measures, the city’s increase in homicides is continuing.

In 2019, Albuquerque had its 19th homicide on April 11 and on April 2, 2019 there were 17 homicides in the city.

On April 2, 2020, the Albuquerque Police Department announced there have been 19 homicides in the city in 2020, which is ahead of 2019’s record-setting homicide pace. The city’s 19th homicide happened around on Thursday, April 2nd near Central and University.

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/albuquerque-on-pace-to-set-new-homicide-record/5690589/?cat=500

Late Thursday night, April 2, APD reported yet another shooting. The incident occurred night near McMahon and Unser with the victim was taken to the hospital.

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE ON THE RISE

On April 5, the on line news agency New Mexico Political Reports published a story stating domestic violence incidents in Bernalillo County reportedly jumped 78 percent which is right in line with soaring unemployment, gun sales and other predictors of abuse.

https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2020/04/05/domestic-violence-shelters-have-no-shortage-of-beds-but-reports-of-abuse-are-on-the-rise/

COMMENTARY

The city’s number one problem before the corona virus outbreak was and still is violent crime. It is likely as the pandemic gets worse in the city and more layoffs occur there will be a even more spikes in domestic violence incidents as well as an increase in property crimes and home break-ins.