John Pavlovitz: “We were wrong about America”

John Pavlovitz is an American Christian pastor and author, known for his social and political writings from a liberal Christian perspective. John Pavlovitz was born in Syracuse, New York to a middle-class Italian family, and was raised as a member of the Catholic Church. After college he joined a Methodist church. He attended Eastern Baptist Theological Seminary and became a youth minister at the church.

Pavlovitz has a blog called “Stuff that needs to be said” in which he writes about a myriad of topics and has garnered criticism for his politics and preaching. On November 4, Pavlovitz posted the following:

EDITOR’S DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed by John Pavlovitz in his column are those of Mr. Pavlovitz and do not necessarily reflect those of the www.petedinelli.com blog. The article is well written and does indeed offer thoughts that are likely going through many Americans minds and is published to encourage discussion.

“The delayed results of the presidential election will be revealed soon, but in many ways, those results will be secondary to what we already know now: we were wrong about America.

The fact that it was even close, the fact that more people voted for him a second time, the fact that a higher number of white women inexplicably affirmed him—it is all confirmation that whether we remove the very visible, unsightly symptom or not, the pervasive disease is still horribly afflicting us.

Numbed by a cocktail of optimism and ignorance, many of us imagined this was a sick, momentary aberration; a temporary glitch in the system that would surely be remedied: after so much ugliness, such open disregard for people of color, such inhumanity toward migrant children, such a sickening failure in the face of this pandemic—sanity would surely come to the rescue.

We were certain that we would collectively course-correct; that the pendulum that had so wildly swung toward inhumanity would come roaring back to decency in these days; that we would presently be basking in the glory of a radiant dawn referendum on all this bloated bigotry.

We thought we would be dancing on the grave of fascism.

We thought, of course the good people of this nation would come to their collective senses, leaving behind political affiliations and superficial preferences and ceremonial ties, to rescue us from a malevolence that had proven itself unworthy of its position and toxic to its people.

We were certain there would be a mass repudiation of the racism that this man has revealed and the violence he’s nurtured, because for all its flaws we really believed America was better than this.

We were wrong.

We were wrong to believe that white people weaned for decades on supremacy, would suddenly embrace disparate humanity and make more space at the table.

We were wrong to believe that white Christians would finally have the scales fall from their eyes and abandon their blind adoration of this vile false prophet of enmity, and once again embrace the expansive, compassionate heart of Jesus.

We were wrong to believe that kindness and science and facts and truth and goodness would be found more valuable than the fool’s gold of sneering, star-spangled, American greatness.

We were wrong to hope that more Republicans would cross party lines in order to defend their country from the greatest terrorist threat in our lifetime.

We were wrong to believe that hope would rise up to cast out fear.

And most of all, we were wrong about people we know and love and live alongside and work with and study beside; about our parents, spouses, siblings, uncles, best friends, and neighbors: they are not the people we thought they were and we do not live in the country we thought we lived in.

We believed the best about this nation and we were mistaken.

To many oppressed and vulnerable communities, to people who have long known the depth of America’s sickness because they have experienced it in traffic stops and workplace mistreatment and opportunity inequity and the bitter words of strangers—this may be less shocking news than it is to those of us with greater privilege and more buffers to adversity and the luxury of naiveté.

But this is the sober spot in which we stand now: realizing that our optimism about the whole of this nation was misplaced, our prayers for the better angels of so many white Christians were unanswered, our childish illusions that people were indeed basically good and decent, seared away in their reaffirmation of something that the rest of the watching world finds reprehensible.

And now, we’re left with two terribly unfortunate choices: leave the America we have, because it is so very different than the America we hoped for—or stay, realizing that we are surrounded by so many people for whom racism is not only not a deal breaker but a selling point; in a place we know is less safe and less decent and less kind than we wanted—not because of any politician but because of those who embraced him a second time, people who share our kitchen tables and churches and break rooms and cul-de-sacs.

I don’t know what the right decision is.

Right now, the only thing I know is that I expected something beautiful and life-affirming was going to mark this day and it isn’t.

I was certain we were better than him, but we are not.

I was so sure that even though I know hatred dies hard, that America was going to let love have the last, loudest word.

I thought I was wrong.

But maybe, I just have to wait to be right.

The link to the John Pavlovitz blog is here:

https://johnpavlovitz.com/2020/11/05/we-were-wrong-about-america/

DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It takes 270 electoral college votes to become President of the United States. A person can win the popular vote, yet lose in the electoral college.

In 2016, it was Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton who won the popular vote. She secured 65,853,625 votes compared with Trump’s 62,985,106. However, Clinton lost the electoral college vote to Trump 232-306.

As of Friday morning November 6, former Vice President Biden had 50.5 per cent of the popular vote at 73,573,006 compared to 47.8 per cent for the president at 69,672,023 or upwards of 4 Million. However, the race had not been called and as of Friday morning November 6, Biden was deemed to have at 254 electoral college votes and Trump was at 214 electoral college votes, but the poling numbers had Biden winning in states yet to be called.

Biden made history on Wednesday, November 4 by earning the most-ever votes cast in a US presidential election, a record previously held by President Barack Obama with 69,498,516 in 2008.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/popular-vote-election-results-who-is-winning-2020-b1591048.html

On November 5, President Trump gave a press conference insisting he has won and vowing to go to the Supreme Court to overturn the election results. He complained he did not understand how one day he was leading in all the states and now losing in battleground states.

CNN Reporter Anderson Cooper said it best: “That is the president of the United States. That is the most powerful person in the world. We see him like an obese turtle on his back flailing in the hot sun, realizing his time is over.”

The waite continues as to who has been elected president. No matter what happens we can take comfort that our democracy does indeed work, but we all must vote to make it work.

Jason Barker Guest Column: “A Plan To Make ABQ Community Safety Department A Success And Make The City Safer”

Jason Barker is an advocate for Safe Access New Mexico, an Affiliate of Americans For Safe Access and also an advocate for Elevate the Spectrum Inc. Mr. Barker is also a freelance writer for Cannabis News Journal and he is a medical cannabis patient in New Mexico. Mr. Baker’s work has focused in the past on medical cannabis issues, decriminalization of cannabis, hemp policy and does not work on legalization of cannabis for non-medical purposes or other illicit drug issues. Mr. Barker is not paid or employed in the medical cannabis industry nor does he have any financial interest in the medical cannabis industry or in a future recreational cannabis industry.

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this guest opinion column written by Jason Barker are those of Mr. Barker and do not necessarily reflect those of the www.petedinelli.com blog. Mr. Baker has not been paid any compensation to publish the guest column and has given his consent to publish on www.PeteDinelli.com

Following is the guest column written by Mr. Baker was submitted to this blog for publication:

“A Plan To Make ABQ Community Safety Department A Success And Make The City Safer”

The City of Albuquerque has a unique opportunity before itself in the creation of a new Community Safety Department, to launch a new program that will divert some 911 calls to paramedics and mental health experts, rather than police.

Mayor Tim Keller announced the creation of the Albuquerque Community Safety Department at a press conference on June 15th 2020, going on to say how Albuquerque would be the first city in the US to create such a program for the community.

Mayor Keller said the new department will serve as a civilian public safety branch to dispatch trained professionals to non-violent 911 calls. For example, the department would respond to calls involving mental health, addiction and homelessness – instead of armed police officers. Further saying this would not reduce resources for the chronically understaffed Albuquerque Police Department.

“We’ve placed more and more issues on the plates of officers who are not trained – despite their best efforts and despite some training – they’re not totally trained to be a social worker, or to be an addiction counselor, or to deal with things around child abuse when they’re just answering a call,” Keller said at the press conference according to KOB 4.

The first sentence above from the Mayor is very important to remember as we see how the City creates this new Community Safety Department.

The City of Albuquerque website (CABQ.gov) says, “the Albuquerque Community Safety department (ACS) will dispatch first responders to 911 calls with or without other first responders from the police and fire departments. Community Safety responders may have backgrounds as social workers, peer to peer support, clinicians, counselors, or similar fields”.

The City of Albuquerque has also quietly put up a survey online that started on August 13 2020 to hear from you and the community about the role ACS should play in the City’s emergency response efforts. This means what ACS should look like and what types of issues the community feels comfortable having ACS respond to.

Survey in English: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ABQACS

Survey in Spanish: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ACSespanol

Unfortunately for Albuquerque’s Mayor Tim Keller, we are not the first in the US to create a community program that would respond to calls involving mental health, addiction and homelessness. And this is a very good thing because we can stop ourselves from being the first to do it wrong since we now have other programs to look at to see what they did to create a successful program instead of trying to reinvent the wheel as the City appears to be doing with this new City Department.

In late summer after months of planning, Mayor Keller provided Albuquerque’s City Council his plan for the new Community Safety department. A plan he promised that will change how the city placed more and more issues on the plates of officers who are not trained to respond to calls involving mental health, addiction and homelessness.

Mayor Keller’s plan he presented as the blueprint for the new Community Safety department includes;
Forty transit security officers, and 13 security staffers from the Municipal Development Department.

Nine parking enforcement workers.

Six crossing guard supervisors.

An employee from the city’s syringe clean-up program.

Yes, you did read that correctly and that is really what Mayor Keller came up with to respond to 911 calls involving mental health, addiction and homelessness.

Now let’s take a look at how two other cities are providing these same community safety services and doing so successfully, first in Eugene and then in Denver.

In Eugene, Oregon, there is a program called Crisis Assistance Helping Out in The Streets or CAHOOTS which is a collaboration between local police and a community service called the White Bird Clinic that’s been around for more than 30 years. The COHOOTS program currently handles about 20% of the calls to 911.

In 2019, out of a total of about 24,000 calls, they only had to call police for back up 150 times. So taking from the Eugene model, in their 30 years of existence, less than 1% of the time they have had to call police because the situation has escalated to need that kind of support.

The CAHOOTS teams in the field are composed of a medic certified as EMT-B or higher and a Crisis Intervention Worker with very extensive training. Each team responds in an Ambulance type of van tailored to fit the programs needs when responding.

[https://whitebirdclinic.org/cahoots/]

When a program like this is created properly it can be very successful and safe.

If you call 911 to report somebody trespassing or shouting at people on the street, you might expect police officers to respond. In Denver, you might get a different response – a paramedic and a mental health expert. It’s called Support Team Assisted Response, or STAR, and the idea is to send more appropriate responses to 911 calls that have to do with substance abuse, mental health crises or people who just need help connecting to services.

The STAR service is a mobile crisis intervention in which a van carrying a mental health clinician and a paramedic is dispatched to provide free medical care, first aid, or mental health support for a broad range of non-criminal emergencies such as drug overdoses, suicidal individuals, mental illness problems, intoxication, and more.

The STAR service is dispatched through Denver’s 911 communications center, and it is intended to divert these types of calls away from police officers and toward mental health and medical professionals. The new initiative is modeled on the Crisis Assistance Helping Out in The Streets (CAHOOTS) program in Eugene, Oregon which has been staffed and managed by local social service agency White Bird Clinic since 1989.

The City of Albuquerque clearly needs to restructure it’s plan for our city’s Community Safety department (ACS) as Mayor Keller promised something completely different in June, than what he provided the City Council.

A Plan For Success and Community Safety:

Here is an example of how the Albuquerque Community Safety department (ACS) program should be structured to fulfill its goals for our community:

Albuquerque Support Team Assisted Response (ASTAR) Program:

• Two (2) Clinicians to oversee the program

• (review CAHOOTS and Denver STAR to determine proper staffing) Utilize Social Workers to to handle incoming response calls

• Two (2) response teams to start: Each team has one (1) Ambulance type of vehicle, 1 driver, 1 mental health clinician, and 1 paramedic (with an active response being coordinated by the social worker and overseen by one of the 2 clinicians).

Response Team’s Main Focus: mental health emergencies, drug overdoses, homelessness and/or requests for a welfare check.

There is already $1 million set aside for its operation.

How is each response team safe on each call?

Make the driver position an off duty member of law enforcement who can only be directed to an on scene response by the clinician overseeing the active call with the social worker (only if the mental health clinician and the paramedic become endangered). Each team could also use body cameras with a live video feed to command center and driver in the team van too.

Create community partnerships and financial support to support the new program from:

City of Albuquerque’s Substance Use Treatment Provider Network
City of Albuquerque’s Mental Health Provider Network
City of Albuquerque’s Homeless Services Network

Conduct a six-month trial phase with 2 response teams and then determine how many more STAR response teams are needed for a program to be effective in its duty to the community and to be providing preventive measures too.

Learn who represents you on the Albuquerque City Council and email them your idea’s, thoughts, concerns about the ACS and this article if you like my plan for success.

Find Your Councilor Here: http://www.cabq.gov/council/find-your-councilor

Respectfully,

Jason Morris Barker
Safe Access New Mexico Organizer

You can contact Jason Barker at these Email addresses:

jasonbarkerfornm@gmail.com

www.jasonbarkerfornmhousedistrict27.com

__________________________

POSTSCRIPT

BELOW ARE LINKS TO RELATED ARTICLES:

Albuquerque concept based on:

CAHOOTS Program / Whitebird Clinic

https://whitebirdclinic.org/cahoots/

The STAR Van Offers an Alternative to Police

Caring for Denver’s STAR van sends a paramedic and clinician to non-criminal 911 calls. The goal is to avoid unnecessary officer involvement—and to find gaps in Denver’s support systems.

www.5280.com/2020/06/the-star-van-offers-an-alternative-to-police

Call police for a woman who is changing clothes in an alley? A new program in Denver sends mental health professionals instead.

The program leads to better outcomes and saves police officers’ time www.denverpost.com/2020/09/06/denver-star-program-mental-health-police

City Invites Public to Help Shape Role of New Albuquerque Community Safety Department

www.cabq.gov/mayor/news/city-invites-public-to-help-shape-role-of-new-albuquerque-community-safety-department

Newly proposed department light on mental health pros

www.abqjournal.com/1501556/newly-proposed-department-light-on-mental-health-pros.html

Publicity Stunt Keller’s “Community Safety Department” Gutted By City Council; New Department Goes From 192 Positions To 13 Positions; $10.9 Million Projected Budget Goes To $7.5 Million, Cut To $2.5 Million; Still No Mental Health Officials

2020 New Mexico General Election Results; Too Close To Call National Presidential Race With Trump Falsely Declaring Victory

On Wednesday, November 4, political commentator Joe Monahan on his political blog “New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan”, posted a short, but excellent article summarizing the final outcome of the 2020 New Mexico general election results in those various elections throughout the state he was able to call. Below is an excerpt from New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan followed by raw result numbers:

“A BLUE WAVE MEETS A RED RIPPLE: EVERYONE HAS SOMETHING TO CELEBRATE IN SPLIT RESULTS; DEM LANDSLIDE IN CITIES AND RED RURAL MUSCLE

The Blue Wave met the Red Ripple in New Mexico Tuesday night giving everyone something to celebrate. The wave swept down La Bajada from Santa Fe and into the ABQ metro, knocking off three GOP Bernalillo County state Senators and leaving only one R standing in the metro.

The wave also knocked the wind out of President Trump handing him a 61 to 37 defeat in BernCo but the blow was softened by the rural Red Ripple and he ended up losing the state and its five electoral votes 54 to 44 percent.

If only Dem US Senate candidate Ben Ray Lujan could have had that margin against Republican newcomer Mark Ronchetti who was trounced in BernCo by Lujan by 50,000 votes or 57 to 41% but the red rural voters helped him pick up some of the slack and Ronchetti outpaced Trump and he ended the night by keeping Lujan to a somewhat modest 51 to 46 margin with the Libertarian candidate taking 3 percent.

The surprise of the night was the overall weakness of Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. The race was expected to be a squeaker but Republican Yvette Herrell prevailed by a healthy 54 to 46 margin. Trump’s dominant performance in the southern congressional district, combined with resistance to state Covid restrictions, were pointed out as reasons for the early end of Torres Small’s congressional career. There was also this from longtime analyst Greg Payne:

She tried to be all things to all people and ended up nothing to everyone.

That meant she barely threw a bone to the progressive Dems in the district, gambling on R’s splitting their tickets. They didn’t and the progressives were unenthused with her conservative pivot and it showed in her lack of muscle in Dona Ana County.

House Speaker Brian Egolf was among many Dems who said that while Torres Small lost her rematch with Herrell she remains a Dem bright light and will be seen again. Meanwhile, Herrell now is the de facto leader of the forlorn and shrunken NM Republican Party. Can she help rebuild it or will she be a one term wonder, falling to victim to Democratic redistricting in 2021?

TURNOUT

As promoted, Election 2020 was a turnout record-breaker At 1:30 a.m. today the SOS had recorded about 912,000 votes, eclipsing the previous turnout record of 833,000 of 2012.The turnout was 67.5 percent of registered voters. That fell short of the record of 70.4 percent set in 2008.

TALL NORTHERN WAVE

The Blue Wave was ten feet tall in the northern congressional district and gave Dem Teresa Leger Fernandez an easy 58 to 42 win for the seat being left vacant by Rep. Lujan. In the ABQ district Rep. Deb Haaland had no trouble handling R Michelle Garcia Holmes, winning her second term with the same margin TLF scored–58 to 42 percent. Because of Leger’s win the state’s five member congressional delegation will for the first time be all women.

While the Dems flipped three BernCo Senate seats, Neomi Martinez Parra could not keep the seat of Deming Senator John Arthur Smith in their corner. She knocked off Smith in the primary but R Crystal Diamond prevailed over her last night in the most expensive state Senate race in the state.

The race between Dem Pam Cordova and R Josh Sanchez for the Valencia/Cibola county Senate seat that was held by Clemente Sanchez but who was ousted by Cordova in the primary, appeared to go to Sanchez. The contest was a surprise.

With the Diamond win and apparent Sanchez win, the R’s made up two of the seats flipped by the Dems in BernCo giving them a net gain of one. Still, the state Senate was charting a more liberal course as a result of the primary when conservative-leaning Dems were knocked off. Nothing last night changes that. The Senate started the night 26 to 16 Dem.

The ABQ Dem Senate victors were Dem Harold Pope, Jr. over R Sen. Sander Rue; Katy Duhigg over GOP Sen. Candace Gould and Dr. Martin Hickey who beat R John Morton to flip the seat of retiring Senator Bill Payne in the ABQ NE Heights.

STATE HOUSE RESULTS

The state House started the night 46 to 24 Democrat and will end up close to that when everything is counted. Speaker Brian Egolf says the Dems could end up losing one or pick up a couple when the races are fully accounted for. Again it won’t make much difference. The Dems and their commanding majority will remain on a liberal course.

That constitutional amendment that would abolish the five member Public Regulation Commission (PRC) and replace it with a three member panel appointed by the Governor won 55 to 45 approval.

All the state supreme court and court of appeals races were swept by the Dems, although the red ripple helped curb the margin of victory in the traditionally blue judge seats.

The Bernalillo County Commission will continue to have one GOP member. George Benson chased away a close Dem pursuer to take the NE Heights seat 52 to 48.

RURAL-CITY DIVIDE

Lt. Governor Howie Morales told our KANW 89.1 FM radio audience that the election results show the polarization between New Mexico’s cities and its rural areas has hardened. A former Silver City state Senator he pledge himself to trying to somehow bridge the divide that comes down to values and Trump. The unresolved presidential race put on the back burner rumors that Gov. MLG could get a spot in a Biden cabinet, making Morales Governor.

The link to the full blog is here: http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

FINAL NEW MEXICO ELECTION RESULTS

Following are the results of statewide races as posted by the New Mexico Secretary of State:

(**** Denotes Winner)

PRESIDENT

DEMOCRAT JOSEPH R BIDEN AND KAMALA D HARRIS
54% (489,979) ****

REPUBLICAN DONALD TRUMP AND MIKE PENCE
44% (398,442)

UNITED STATES SENATE

DEMOCRAT BEN R LUJAN 51% (463,191) ****
REPUBLICAN MARK V RONCHETTI 46% (414,824)

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE – DISTRICT 1

DEMOCRAT DEB HAALAND 58% (185,196) ****
REPUBLICAN MICHELLE GARCIA HOLMES 42% (133,695)

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 2

REPUBLICAN YVETTE HERRELL 54% (141,227) ****
DEMOCRAT XOCHITL TORRES SMALL 46% (120,766)

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT – DISTRICT 3

DEMOCRAT TERESA LEGER FERNANDEZ 58% (178,242) ****
REPUBLICAN ALEXIS M JOHNSON 42% (129,305)

https://nmresults.azurewebsites.net/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

PUBLIC REGULATION COMMISSION

District 1 (Central New Mexico-Albuquerque)
Democrat Cynthia Hall: 59% (118,133) ****
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones: 41% (81,592)

District 2

Democrat Joseph Maestas: 71% (141,84) ****
Libertarian Chris Luchini: 29% (57,704)

https://nmresults.azurewebsites.net/resultsSW.aspx?type=PRX&map=CTY

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT POSITION 1

DEMOCRAT SHANNON BACON 55% (484,446) ****
REPUBLICAN NED S FULLER 45% (391,166)

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT POSITION 2

DEMOCRAT ZACH IVES 52% (453,18) ****
REPUBLICAN BARBARA V JOHNSON 48% (416,157)

JUDGE OF THE COURT OF APPEALS POSITION 2

DEMOCRAT SHAMMARA H HENDERSON 51% (440,068) ****
REPUBLICAN GERTRUDE LEE 42% (367,556)

JUDGE OF THE COURT OF APPEALS POSITION 3

DEMOCRAT JANE B YOHALEM 51% (446,046) ****
REPUBLICAN THOMAS C MONTOYA 49% (420,183)

LINK TO NEW MEXICO LEGISLATIVE RACES

The link to the New Mexico Secretary of States web page reporting on the election results for individual New Mexico House and Senate races is here:

https://nmresults.azurewebsites.net/resultsSW.aspx?type=LGX&map=CTY

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 1: PROPOSING TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION OF NEW MEXICO TO PROVIDE THAT THE PUBLIC REGULATION COMMISSION CONSIST OF THREE MEMBERS APPOINTED BY THE GOVERNOR

YES: 55% (436,760) ****
NO: 45% (351,208)

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 2: PROPOSING TO TO PERMIT THE ADJUSTMENT BY LAW OF TERMS OF NON-STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICERS AND TO STANDARDIZE THE DATE AN OFFICER BEGINS TO SERVE

YES: 64% (493,721) ****
NO: 36% (274,512)

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL WITH TRUMP DECLARING VICTORY

TRUMP DECLARES VICTORY

In early morning brief remarks on Wednesday, November 4 from the East Room of the White House, President Trump attacked the legitimate vote counting efforts, calling it “fraud” with no basis. The President then claimed he “did win” the election, despite the millions of votes that have yet to be counted.

News anchors forcefully called out for prematurely declaring himself the victor despite millions of outstanding ballots left to be counted in several key states. All the major networks carried Trump’s address at the start, but NBC News and MSNBC cut into it to note that he was peddling falsehoods.

NBC News anchor Savannah Guthrie said as the network broke away from Trump’s remarks:

“We’re listening to the President speaking at the White House, but we’ve got to dip in here because there have been several statements that are just frankly not true.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/media/tv-networks-trump-speech-election-night/index.html

ABC NEWS REPORT

ABC News Report posted at 10:00 am, New Mexico time, the following:

“Election Day is turning into election week as the counting of votes continues across the country, with preliminary results showing tight races in several key battleground states.
Candidates need 270 Electoral College votes to secure the presidency. ABC News projects President Donald Trump currently has 213, while former Vice President Joe Biden has 225.
Both Trump, the Republican incumbent, and Biden, his Democratic challenger, addressed the nation in the early hours of Wednesday morning, each expressing confidence in the race for the White House. Trump invited about 400 people to the White House East Room for an indoor watch party as the election, considered by many a referendum on his handling of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, unfolded before them.
In the weeks leading up to Election Day, more than 100 million early votes were cast, shattering early turnout records across the country.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/2020-election-campaign-vote/?id=73960714

WASHINGTON POST

According to the Washingting Post at 10:00 am, New Mexico time, the votes are still out in several key states:

Georgia — Election officials are counting the thousands of remaining ballots. Most of the counties still tabulating lean heavily Democratic. Officials have not said when the public can expect more results.

Michigan — Large, mostly heavily Democratic jurisdictions including Detroit were still counting ballots on Wednesday morning.

Nevada — Counting of remaining mail and provisional ballots is underway, and updated vote totals will not be released until Thursday at noon Eastern.

North Carolina — Most outstanding mail-in ballots are in the state’s biggest counties, Wake and Mecklenburg. They have until Nov. 12 to arrive, if postmarked by Nov. 3.

Pennsylvania — More than 1.4 million ballots were still to be counted as of 10 a.m., when counting was set to resume in parts of the state.

Wisconsin — A few places are finishing their counts of absentee ballots, though the final counts are in from Milwaukee and Kenosha. The Trump campaign expect the state to be in “recount territory.” (Update as of (9:pm, State called for Biden, Trump says will demand re-count, but law required 15 day waite to contest.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/04/trump-biden-election-live-updates/

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Trump is so self-centered, so desperate to hold onto power, he wants to disenfranchise anyone who did not physically vote on election day at a polls. The nightmare scenario is now playing out with Trump declaring victory within hours after election night and ordering his party to contest the election results in the battleground states by challenging the mail in ballot votes. The Republican party is already gearing up to file suit to prevent the certification of the election results in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.

Ultimately, the states will prevail and they will continue to count all the votes and within days we should know who has been elected President.

In New Mexico, Only Absentee Ballots That Reach County Clerks By 7 p.m. When The Polls Close Will Be Counted; Hand Deliver Absentee Ballot Or Vote In Person

“This process of election affords a moral certainty that the office of President will seldom fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.”

President Thomas Jefferson

“Nobody will ever deprive the American people of the right to vote except the American people themselves and the only way they could do this is by not voting.”

President Franklin D. Roosevelt

“I think it’s a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it’s a terrible thing when people or states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over because it can only lead to one thing. … We’re going to go in the night of — as soon as the election is over — we’re going in with our lawyers.”

President Donald Trump

BLOW OUT TURN OUT

According to the Associated Press, as of Monday, November 2, early votes have exceeded 98.8 million primarily the result of states expanding their rules to allow more voters to cast a mail-in ballot or vote early in person as a precaution against Covid-19. More than two-thirds of the total votes in 2016 have already been cast in the 2020 election. That is 1.7 times as much as the early vote total in 2016 which was 58.8 million votes.

In New Mexico, it’s no different. According to secretary of state Maggie Toulouse Oliver, absentee ballots has pushed participation in this year’s general election to 57% of registered voters. More than 770,000 votes have been cast which is equal to roughly 92% of the votes in the entire 2008 general election, the state’s record.

New Mexico political observer Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc. said:

“About 48.4% of votes have been cast by registered Democrats, who have a big lead over Republicans when it comes to absentee voting … and about 34.7% of votes have been cast by Republicans, who have an edge when it comes to in-person voting.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1513686/nm-election-turnout-nears-record-high.html

According to the Secretary of State’s Office, Democrats make up about 45.2% of the state’s more than 1.3 million registered voters, while Republicans make up roughly 31.3%.

DELAY IN COUNT NORMAL

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver said that it is “perfectly normal for vote counting to continue past election night”. According to Toulouse Oliver, the canvassing process to certify the official results typically takes a few weeks and she said: .

“We want to make sure we’re giving everybody a clear picture of what we’re seeing on election night. … I’m feeling optimistic that we should be able to get through the absentee vote within a day or two after Election Day.”

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Despite the likely delay in tabulating all votes on election day, Trump and his staunches supporters are insisting that the election’s result need to be known on election night. They do not and historically have not. Trump is so self-centered, so desperate to hold onto power, he wants to disenfranchise anyone who does not physically vote on election day at a polling station.

The nightmare scenario is Trump will declare victory on election night and order his party to contest the election results in the battleground states by challenging the mail in ballot votes. The Republican party is already gearing up to file suit to prevent the certification of the election results in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.

The danger of an undemocratic outcome on November 3 is very real. If there is no clear-cut winner on election night, with Biden narrowly ahead in the electoral college but with one or more of the states of Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Texas still too close to call, the United States democracy will be near a full-scale meltdown or near a civil war in the streets.

One of the most certain ways the nightmare scenario cannot occur is if Trump in fact loses the election by numbers too large to contest. When they say this is the most important election of our lifetime, that is not at all an exaggeration.

Some states allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to be tallied.

In New Mexico, only ballots that reach New Mexico’s county clerks by 7 p.m. when the polls close will be counted.

If you have not mailed in your absentee ballot, hand deliver it to a polling station or vote in person.

John B. Strong Guest Column: Taking A Hard Look At Tax Incentive Programs In New Mexico

On October 28, 2020, the Albuquerque Journal published an article entitled “New Mexico tax breaks cost $1 Billion in annual revenue”. According to the Journal article, budget and financial analysts say in a report to the Legislative Finance Committee that “New Mexico forgoes about $1 billion in annual revenue through more than 100 tax breaks despite having little information about how effective many of them are. … The single most expensive “tax expenditure” … is the roughly $250 million a year it costs to provide a gross receipts tax deduction on food and to reimburse local governments for much of the lost revenue, according to the analysis released”.

The 2019 New Mexico legislature enacted legislation that more than doubled New Mexico’s annual spending cap on film rebates from $50 million to $110 million. It is estimated “the state will pay out roughly $83 million in film incentives this fiscal year but just $45 million next year – because of the interruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the lag in paying out credits. The payouts are expected to fluctuate between $111 million and $115 million in the three years after that. Direct spending by the film industry is expected to range from roughly $408 million this year to over $530 million in future years. … the film industry provides strong wages – exceeding $56,000 a year on average, or more than $10,000 higher than the average for private industry in New Mexico.”

The link to the full Albuquerque Journal article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1512123/new-mexico-tax-breaks-cost-1b-in-annual-revenue.html

JOHN B. STRONG

John B. Strong has lived in New Mexico since 1997. He is a highly successful private business owner and has been investing in business startups since 2004. He is a co-founder or board member at several different companies, mostly in technology, healthcare, and financial services. Mr. Strong describes himself as being “obsessed” with entrepreneurship and small businesses. Below is a guest column submitted by Mr. Strong for publication on this blog.

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this guest column written by John Strong are those of Mr. Strong and do not necessarily reflect those of the www.petedinelli.com blog. Mr. Strong has not been paid any compensation to publish the guest column and has given his consent to publish on www.PeteDinelli.com

GUEST COLUMN: Taking A Hard Look At Tax Incentive Programs In New Mexico

“After reading … [the] Albuquerque Journal article on tax incentives and credits in New Mexico, that are costing one billion dollars per year, I thought it was time to take a deeper dive into them. The issue is if we are really getting the maximum benefit from these incentives compared to the cost. Almost every state and most cities use some types of tax incentives and credits to further economic development. There’s nothing new about that. The issue, is which tax incentives and credits provide the biggest return on the investment we as taxpayers make in them., and that is where things get a little murky.

The largest portion of these credits or incentives are so that we can have no gross receipts tax on food purchases, something that actually benefits all New Mexicans. The next biggest piece is for the film industry, and that is where we need to take a closer look at what we are getting in return. We can do better.

FILM INDUSTRY CREDITS

The Journal article references the amount we are expected to spend on the film industry credits at between $111 Million and $115 Million each year over the next 3 years. To date there has been some $400 million dollars on these credits thus far with “credit” meaning a cash rebate to the industry. New Mexico’ Economic Development Department estimates are that each job created from this program has cost the state $39,000. That’s a lot of money for every job. But more importantly there are real questions about how many of those jobs are actually based in New Mexico.

Many times, the technical staff and actors that we rebate their wages are actually not even residents and simply leave at the end of filming and go back to their home states and the production companies do the same along with our money. Its fair to ask if this is actually a good deal for us? There is no question that the film industry is important and that we want it to grow, prosper, and expand here. But at what cost? Especially when we weigh the costs against other areas that we can spend economic incentive dollars.

Recently, I was in Tulsa, OK and picked up the Tulsa World newspaper to see an article about them raising their tax rebate incentive for the film industry from 25% to 30 % in order to better compete with other states. That makes me wonder just where will this end? Are we in a race to see which states can give away the most money? What happens when we try to wean these companies off these incentives? Will they just pull up stakes and leave? These are of course valid questions.

Obviously, we have done a good job in attracting both Netflix and NBC Universal into making substantial investments in production here, and that’s a very good thing, but aren’t these incentives meant to help establish an industry here, and hopefully once they are well on the way to success to gradually reduce these incentives so that we can move on and focus on another industry? I agree that it is glamorous to have such a large film industry presence here, but there are also areas that we can spend some of this money, that although are not as glamorous and exciting, are arguably many times more productive. In some ways, I believe we are star struck by this industry and not looking at it clearly with the real economic benefits as a guidepost.

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT, PROGRAMERS AND DATA SCIENTIST BOOTCAMPS

One area that I have argued repeatedly that we should spend some money on “Boot Camps” for software developers and programmers and data scientists. If you are unfamiliar with Boot Camps, they are immersive, intensive training programs for about 12 weeks or so lasting a full time, 40 hours per week plus. When you exit them you are certified as a software programmer and developer or data scientist.

These Boot Camps are an increasingly important part of the technology ecosystem and are professional occupations that are in very high demand. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says these are the 5th fastest growing professional jobs in the country, and we will be needing in excess of 300,000 of them at a minimum in the next 10 years. Extrapolated for population New Mexico should be getting over 6,000 of these jobs, but we can get many more if we make the commitment. Here’s how.

In the San Francisco, Los Angeles ,Boston, and Washington DC areas, software developers can expect starting salaries of approximately $100,000 per year and Data Scientists more than $200,000 per year. In New Mexico the average starting salaries for these positions are $50,000 and $95,000. This is creating a large demand for outsourcing from Western States and the Boston/Washington DC areas to less expensive regions, and New Mexico is one of the least expensive. The 3 main local boot camps are already fielding requests from companies out of state for outsourcing, and that can increase dramatically.

We get an incredible return on the investment in boot camps, but don’t spend nearly enough money on them. The demand for software programmers and data science graduates in boot camps is off the charts, and we need them more than ever. We also need technical grads from certificate programs for the film industry in fields such as film and video editing.

What will we get in return? Let’s do some math. The placement rate for graduates in these Boot Camps is in excess of 85% in the first 6 months. The average starting salary for a Software developer/programmer or full stack developer is $50,000 per year and increasing to around $60-$70,000 from there. For a Data Scientist it is $95,000 rising to over $110,000 after a year or two. In addition to that for each Data Scientist that we create , they will need the support of as many 5-software developer/programmers. Both of these occupations have unemployment rates of less than 2%. Even better, creating a professional technology job comes with a job multiplier in excess of 4. That’s 4 additional jobs for every one we create.

Contrast that with manufacturing jobs that have an average multiplier of 1.4 and an even bigger bonus here is that the 4 additional jobs created from tech are heavily weighted to professions such as lawyers, accountants and CPA’s, marketing specialists, and engineers. In manufacturing the multiplier jobs skew towards retail and restaurant occupations. We are also giving ourselves something else here that we desperately need: employment opportunities for other professionals who are exiting our University System.

LACK OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES

Currently, there is a real lack of job opportunities for theses graduates, and they are leaving for states like Colorado, Arizona, Texas, and California. Keeping them here has to be a top priority for our state. A growing technology ecosystem will help provide the opportunities to keep these University graduates here. If we graduate over 4-5 years 250 Data Scientists and 1,000 software programmers/developers the job multiplier will add an additional 5000 jobs. So now we have an impact of 6,250 jobs. Most all of them professional jobs at that. If we paid the entire cost of each qualified applicant to one of these camps, say $15,000 for and example, it would be less than $19,000,000, or less than $3500 per job. And that’s if we paid for everything with no reimbursements at all. Contrast that with the cost of each film industry job at $39,000. But even better than that, once these workers are in the job market, they are self-sufficient productive taxpayers for a lifetime. What can be better than that?

You may be asking why the state would need to get involved here? The reason is that these programs do not currently qualify for traditional student loans and funding. There are some grants available from foundations and companies, but it is not nearly enough. We have to also consider the social benefits we can get here as well. We are taking people who are largely working in retail, call center, and restaurant occupations paying $10-$12 per hour and converting them into professional job holders earning $50,000 plus. That is very meaningful when you take a person who is currently able to afford an apartment with roommates, and put them in a short time in a position to actually own their own home and raise a family. The benefits there are clear, in reductions in all of the ills that come with low income and poverty. We know that this leads to reduced levels of crime, addiction, physical abuse, and mental illness. How do you even place a value on that?

ANGEL TAX CREDIT

Another area that we can and should take a hard look at is the New Mexico Angel Tax Credit. This is a tax credit of 25% off your state income tax in return for investments you make in qualified New Mexico companies which are generally startup companies. This tax credit has been a critical component of funding for startups by local investors, something that we did not have enough of here. This program gives a qualified investor in a qualified company a 25% credit on their New Mexico State income tax due for investments in New Mexico companies. In a state that has a deficit of Angel investors for its startup ecosystem , this is an important component and incentive.

The Angel Tax Credit program had previously been administered by the Department of Economic Development, where one person was in charge of the program. It was at that time relatively straight forward and simple. This year, the program was moved to Tax and Revenue Department. I have personally raised over $2 million dollars for local startups over the last year and this program was one of the keystone incentives for investors. Unfortunately, the program was moved from Economic Development to Tax and Revenue this year.

Why does that matter? First, economic development looks at you as someone who is making an investment in a local business, and that’s a god thing. Tax and Revenue? They only see a taxpayer and they want to know how they can extract money from that taxpayer. Last year, under EDD you would simply get a certificate for your investment and then attach it to your tax return. Pretty simple and straight forward. Now that it is in Tax and Revenue? The first thing they ask you for is to sign a form agreeing in advance to allow them to audit your tax returns, both federal and state, for three years in advance. Who do you think is going to agree to that? It makes the program basically useless and it should simply be cancelled and the resources spent somewhere more productive. This is an administrative problem that can be fixed, but will it? So far it is not.

THE BOTTOM LINE

What’s the bottom line here? We are spending a billion dollars each year on tax incentives and credits. I have no problem with that at all. I do have a problem with where we spend this money. Yes, it is glamorous to have such a large film industry presence here, but it would be really exciting to me to see call center and retail workers graduate from boot camps and become homeowners and productive taxpayers too. And I would really like to see Angel investors get that same 25% rebate on the cash investments they make into New Mexico startups too. This is not about the money we spend on these programs, it’s about who we spend it on. It’s also about who will benefit the most from it. Hopefully with this next 60 day session of our legislature that will convene in January 2021 we will address a few of these items.”

Links to other guest columns written by John Strong are here:

Recreational Cannabis Bill Introduced; Endorsed By Governor MLG; Commentary By John Strong: Bill Does Not Address One Very Big Problem

John Strong: “New Mexico Needs A Moonshot in Technology”

John B. Strong: “Keeping up with Wyoming” Or How to “Stake our claim to a piece of a multi-trillion dollar industry”

A Serious Conversation On Liquor License Reform In New Mexico

John B. Strong: Damage From The Failed ART Project Goes Far Beyond Just Central Avenue