Within the last 3 weeks, 3 separate public opinion polls in Governor’s race and on issues the voting public are concerned about were taken and released by the Albuquerque Journal, KOB “4 Investigates” and KRQE 13 been taken and release. This blog article is an in-depth comparison of all 3 polls as well as the issues on voter’s minds as they decide how to cast their vote with analysis and commentary
KRQE NEWS 13 EMERSON POLL
On September 15, KRQE NEWS 13 published the latest of 3 polls in the New Mexico Governor’s race. The KRQE commissioned Emerson College Polling on the New Mexico Governor’s race as well as issues facing the state. The results of the poll in the Governor’s race is as follows:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 43%
Undecided: 5.2%
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
The favorability of both candidates was polled. 52% viewed Lujan Grisham favorably compared to 46% who viewed her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 51% percent viewed Ronchetti favorably compared to 41% who viewed him unfavorably. Both candidates at 52% for Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti at 51% are well liked and essentially tied in favorability.
Although Lujan Grisham’s unfavorable rating at 46% is higher by 5% over Ronchetti’s 41%, this must be tempered with the fact that she has been in office for the last 4 years dealing with a health crisis that required difficult and at time’s controversial decisions that Ronchetti has capitalized on with very negative ads. Ronchetti’s 41% unfavorables can be considered surprisingly higher than what is normal in that for the last 4 years he has been essentially a TV weatherman personality with no expierence to be held accountable for his mistakes and he has also run and lost for US Senator.
The candidate’s favorability ratings broke along party lines. Just over 90% of people who said they voted for Donald Trump in 2020 found Ronchetti “favorable”. Just under 90% of those who say they voted for Biden in 2020 found Lujan Grisham favorable.
Lujan Grisham found slightly more favor among urban voters, while Ronchetti found more support among rural voters. Suburban voters were fairly split between the two candidates.
A gender divide was found between the candidates. Female voters consistently support Lujan Grisham, while the male vote is split between the candidates. Nearly 50% of females polled say they will vote for Lujan Grisham while just over 40% of females say they’d vote for Ronchetti. Meanwhile, 46.8% of males say they’d vote for Ronchetti and another 46.8% say they’d vote for Lujan Grisham.
Lujan Grisham has the advantage when it comes to name identification amongst voters who are undecided. Only 6% of undecided voters have no opinion of Lujan Grisham or have never heard of her while 30% of undecided voters have never heard of, or have no opinion of Mark Ronchetti. This is very significant in that the 5.2% undecides in the poll will likely decide the race with Lujan Grisham polling at 48% or just 2% plus one vote short of a win.
ISSUES POLLED
The KRQE Emerson poll asked voters about the issues utmost on their minds leading up to the election. When asked in the Emerson poll what issue is most important for voting this November, 35% of those polled said the economy is the key issue. According to the poll, abortion, crime, housing, education, healthcare, COVID-19, and immigration were also issues listed, but none of those topics came close to the issue of jobs, inflation, and taxes.
While voters from across the political spectrum voice concern over the economy, nearly half of registered Republicans polled said the economy is the key issue in determining their vote. A little under a quarter of Democrats said the economy is their key focus while 38.4% of Independents and other voters said the economy is their key issue.
ABORTION
The Emerson KRQE 13 Emerson poll found that fter the economy, abortion access is a top issue for voters. 15.1% said it’s the key issue that will determine their vote this November. Poll numbers revealed that 23.1% of Democrats say it’s the most important issue for deciding their vote. Only 6.4% of Republicans say it’s the most important issue. 11.6% of independent voters or voters from other parties say it’s the top issue.
For some voters, the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade is likely to spur on voting. About 50% of those polled say the decision will make it more likely that they’ll vote in the 2022 election. But about 45% of people say it’s not affecting how likely they are to vote.
It is not just female voters that say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them more likely to vote. Nearly 49% of males polled say the Supreme Court decision has made it somewhat more likely or much more likely that they’ll vote this year. A little over 50% of females polled say it’s made them at least somewhat more likely to vote. 50% of Democratic voters said healthcare and abortion access are the two top issues.
Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is “”, in 2021, she signed the repeal of the state’s 1969 criminal abortion law and signed an executive order pledging $10 million for a new abortion clinic citing an influx of abortion patients from Texas and other states.
Candidate Mark Ronchetti has said that he’s “pro-life” and has promised to “seek a middle ground with our legislature that ends the practice of late-term and partial-birth abortion.” Ronchetti says politicians should not be deciding the issue and is now calling for a public referendum vote to permit abortion up to 15 weeks and in cases involving rape, incest, and when a mother’s life is at risk. Calling for a referendum on a what was a consitutional right is even worse than politicians deciding the issue.
EDITOR’S COMMENT: No one should have the right, and that includes voters, to decide on a woman’s right to choose and to make decisions on her health care.
OTHER ISSUE IDENTIFIED IN EMERSON POLL
11.6% in the polled said healthcare is their top issue. The Emerson poll revealed healthcare is a priority for minority voters more often than white voters. A little over 16% of Hispanic and Latino voters said healthcare is their top issue, over a quarter of Black and African American voters said their top focus is healthcare. Only about 9% of white voters said healthcare is their top priority. Healthcare showed a party divide. A little over 18% of Democrats say healthcare is their top priority, while less than 3% of Republicans say it’s their top focus.
11% in the poll said crime is their top issue.
2.1% in the Emerson poll said say COVID-19 is the most important issue in determining their vote. For urban voters, it’s slightly higher, but still only 3.2% of those living in cities say COVID-19 is their top issue.
OPINIONS ON BIDEN AND TRUMP
In the 2020 Presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden won New Mexico by about 10 points. The KRQE-Emerson College poll shows that New Mexico’s likely voters are now split on Biden with just over 47% polled say they approve of the job Biden is doing and about 47% say they disapprove.
Biden’s approval rating is lower among American Indian and Native American voters. The majority of those voters in New Mexico disapprove of the job Biden is doing, the poll shows.
The KRQE News 13 Emerson poll asked voters whether or not the recent news about the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s search of Mar-a-Lago has impacted their views of former President Donald Trump, if he runs for office in 2024. Those polled were essentially evenly split between those who said the FBI search has made them more likely to support Trump, those who said the FBI search has made them less likely to support Trump, and those who said the FBI search has made no difference.
ABOUT THE EMERSON POLL
Emerson College Polling conducted the poll of 1,000 people from September 8-11, 2022. The data comes from people across the state. The results are intended to represent voter turnout, so input from voters in Albuquerque is proportional to the share of New Mexico voters who are likely to turn out in Albuquerque. Results were collected through several methods. Emerson College Polling used phone calls, emails, text messaging, and an online panel. The poll has a plus-or-minus ratio of 3%, and demographic comparisons have a higher ratio due to the sample size.
The 2 links to the unedited, quoted KRQE news stories are here:
https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/krqe-emerson-poll-lujan-grisham-leads-ronchetti-by-5-in-governors-race/
https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/krqe-emerson-poll-what-issues-are-most-important-to-new-mexican-voters/
KOB “4 INVESTIGATES” SURVEY USA
On September 14, KOB Channel 4 published a “4 Investigates” Poll” on the New Mexico Governor’s race it commissioned with Survey USA. The results of the poll in the Governor’s race revealed that Democrat Governor Michell Lujan Grisham has now busted out a double-digit lead over Republican Mark Ronchetti. The results of the poll reported are:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 48%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 36%
Libertarian Karen Bedonie: 5%
Undecided: 11%
The link to the KOB 4 report is here:
https://www.kob.com/news/top-news/4-investigates-poll-mlg-has-12-point-advantage-over-ronchetti/
POLL ANALYSIS
Following is the poll’s narrative analysis:
PARTY AFFILIATION
Governor Luajn Grisham has the backing of 88% of Democrats.
Lujan Grisham leads by an 83-point margin among both Democrats and liberals, and by 82 points among Biden voters.
Ronchetti has the backing of 76% Republicans. Ronchetti leads among Republicans by 67 points, among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 with 66%, and among conservatives by 38 points.
GENDER
Lujan Grisham is up by 18 points support among women with 51%.
Ronchetti has 33% support among women.
Lujan Grisham has 45% support among men.
Ronchetti has 39% support among men.
AGE
Lujan Grisham leads by 20 points among voters under age 50, but by 7 points among those 50+.
ETHNICITY
White voters back Ronchetti by an 8-point margin.
Latinos prefer Lujan Grisham by 33 points at 59%.
INCOME LEVELS
Lujan Grisham leads in lower and middle-income households.
Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti are effectively tied in upper-income households, with Ronchetti nominally ahead.
THE ISSUES
On issues, the Governor leads by 67 points among the 23% who say the environment is among the most important issues to them, by 50 points among the 7% focused on housing, by 46 points among the 29% who will be focused on abortion when casting their ballots, by 44 points among the 34% focused on healthcare, and by 10 percentage points among the 23% focused on education.
On the issues, Ronchetti leads by 43 points among the 1 in 3 voters who say immigration and border security are among the issues most likely to influence their votes this November, by 5 points among those who list inflation and the economy as a top issue (59% of the electorate).
Ronchetti and Lujan Grisham are effectively tied among the 58% of voters who say crime and public safety is a top issue.
CRIME
Crime is considered the Governors vulnerability, with Ronchetti making it the cornerstone of his campaign, yet she managed to outpoll Ronchetti on the issue:
Governor MLG: 44%
Ronchettis: 41%
ABORTION
Abortion and a woman’s right to choose is considered the defining issue in the race for Governor and the poll results confirm that:
68% support the Governor on the issue.
22% support Ronchetti.
ABOUT THE POLL
SurveyUSA interviewed a representative cross-section of 840 New Mexico adults online 09/08/22 through 09/12/22. Of the adults, 665 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 558 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2022 general election and were asked poll questions. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. The poll has a relatively high margin of error of 5.7 percent.
The link to review further the poll results and analysis is here:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #26477
ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL
On Sunday, August 28, the Albuquerque Journal released its first poll in the 2022 Governor’s race between Democrat Incumbent Michell Lujan Grisham and Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti. The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for decades has done all political polling for the Journal and with polling firm considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.
RESULTS OF JOURNAL POLL
The poll asked the question “If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? “ The poll results reported were:
Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 47%
Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%
Libertarian Karen Bedoni: 5%
UNDECIDED: 8%
JOURNAL POLL ON ISSUES FACING STATE
On August 29, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll on the issue of abortion which is considered the defining issue in the governor’s race.
The poll asked the question “WHICH COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ON ABORTION” The results were as follows:
It should always be legal: 35%
It should be legal with some limitations: 22%
It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 25%
It should always be illegal: 12%
Don’t know: 2%
None of these/won’t say: 4%
POLITCAL PARTY BREAKDOWN
The poll results were broken down according to party affiliation. The responses to the poll question by party affiliation were as follows:
It should always be legal:
Democrats: 55%
Republicans: 8%
Other: 35%
It should be legal with some limitations:
Democrats: 24%
Republicans: 18%
Other: 26%
It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life:
Democrats: 11%
Republicans: 41%
Other: 28%
It should always be illegal:
Democrats: 5%
Republicans: 24%
Other: 8%
POLL ON 5 ISSUES FACING STATE
On August 31 the Journal reported the results of it poll on the various issues voters felt were serious in the state. In the poll, respondents were read a list of five issues facing New Mexico and asked to state if they felt each one was a “very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, minor problem, or no problem at all.” The specific issues asked about in the poll were Crime, Homelessness, Quality of Education, the Strength of the State’s Economy, and Covid 19.
The poll question and the results for each of the 5 issues asked about are as follows:
“How serious are these issues facing New Mexico?”
- CRIME
Very Serious: 82% Somewhat Serious: 14% Minor: 3% No Problem: 0 Don’t Know/Would Not Say: 1%
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
It should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone that Crime was listed as “Very Serious” problem with a whopping 82%. Concern about crime cut across party lines, geographic regions and age. Albuquerque and the State has seen a major spike in violent crime and the rates are some of the highest in the country. In the last 3 years, Albuquerque has had a breaking number of homicides each year. In 2021 the city had 117 homicides. As of August 30, APD reports that there have been 88 homicides, with the city well on it way to breaking the 2021 all time record.
apd-homicide-list-for-web-site-as-of-02sep2022.pdf (cabq.gov)
- HOMELESSNESS
Very Serious: 77% Somewhat Serious: 16% Minor: 4% No Problem: 1% Don’t Know/Would Not Say: 2%
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
When it comes to the issue of Homelessness, it should come as no surprise that 77% feel that it is a very serious problem, once again with Albuquerque being the driving force behind the increase for concern. Likely voters in the Albuquerque metropolitan area were far more likely than people in eastern or southwestern New Mexico to call homelessness a very serious problem. According to the Journal report, the 77% is a sharp increase from four years ago when 54% of likely voters described homelessness as a very serious problem. Simply put, the homeless numbers have increased as has their visibility with the government struggling to come to a solution on how to deal with the crisis. Mayor Tim Keller’s recent closure of Coronado Park as well as his failure to manage the homeless crisis has become a major source of controversy.
- QUALITY OF EDUCATION
Very Serious: 61% Somewhat Serious: 24% Minor: 9% No Problem: 4% Don’t Know/Would Not Say: 3
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The 61% “very concern” for education is based in sobering reality and understanding of the state’s education system, but there is major reason for optimism for improvement.
On January 19, 2022, the New Mexico Voices for Children released the 2021 Kids Count Data Book. New Mexico’s rankings in the nation for education was 50th. The state ranked 29th in the number of young children not enrolled in school, 49th in the nation for 8th grade math proficiency and 50th in the nation for 4th grade reading proficiency and 25% of New Mexican high schoolers do not graduate on time. The links to the Kids Count Data Book is here:
https://www.nmvoices.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/KidsCount-DataBook2021-FINAL.pdf
https://www.nmvoices.org/archives/16481
On Friday, July 20, 2018, Santa Fe District Court Judge Sarah Singleton ruled in the case of Yazzie v. State of New Mexico and Governor Suzanna Martinez that the state of New Mexico was violating the constitutional rights of at-risk students by failing to provide them with a sufficient education. In response to the court ruling, the New Mexico legislature increased public education funding to the highest levels in state history. During the last 3 years, the New Mexico legislature dramatically increased public education funding, created the Early Childhood Department (CYFD), issued mandates to Children, Youth and Families and Public Education departments, and gave raises to educators.
The 2022 New Mexico Legislature approved an $8.48 billion state budget, the largest budget in state history. The budget bill boosts state spending by $1 billion, nearly 14%, over current budget levels. The enacted budget includes significant increases in spending in areas that should have a direct impact on major areas identified by the New Mexico Kids Count Data Book. Annual spending on K-12 grade public education was increased by $425 million to $3.87 billion, a 12% boost.
A trio of bills to fund programs to help Native American students succeed in school past was enacted by the 2022 legislature. The house bills provided more than $70 million to tribal entities to help offer culturally relevant lesson plans and access to virtual and after-school programs for those students. The budget contains salary increases of 7% for school districts and state government staff across the state. A minimum hourly wage of $15 for public employees and higher base salaries for teachers is provided. The enacted budget extends free college tuition to most New Mexico residents pursuing two- and four-year degrees. $75 million is allocated to the “opportunity scholarship” program, providing free tuition and fees for New Mexico residents.
On the November 8 general election ballot is also a Constitutional Amendment that if passed will increase funding by the millions from the state’s permanent school fund with more funding to go towards extra funding in the millions for K-12 education. Outlined below is a report on a separate poll question on the Constitutional Amendment.
- STRENGTH OF THE STATE’S ECONOMY
Very Serious: 52% Somewhat Serious: 30% Minor: 9% No Problem: 3%
Don’t Know/Would Not Say: 5%
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The 52% “Very Serious” and 30% “Somewhat Concern” poll numbers for the state’s economy must be tempered with reality. Things are not at all as bad as the poll suggests.
On August 16, during a meeting of the influential New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee held in Chama, New Mexico, legislators were told the state will have a staggering projected $2.5 billion in “new” money during the 2023 budget year that starts on July 1, 2023. The total revenue is forecast is to rise from $9.2 billion in the fiscal year that just ended to nearly $10.9 billion for 2023. The projections were reported by the LFC executive economists. The LFC economists reported that the $2.5 money, which represents the difference between current spending levels and projected new revenue, is in addition to a projected budget surplus of nearly $3.8 billion for the current fiscal year and with upwards of $2.6 billion to go into the state’s early childhood trust fund. According to the economic projections reported, the revenue flow is showing no signs of slowing down. It is inflation related consumer spending, strong wage growth and increased oil production that is spiking the state’s revenue flows to historic heights.
On August 19, 2022, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions (DWS) released an Economic Update on the state’s unemployment rates. The Department of Workforce Solutions (DWS) reported that New Mexico’s unemployment dropped to the lowest it has been since September 2008. The DWS reported that the unemployment rate for the state in July stood at 4.5%, a drop from 4.9% in June of this year and a year-over-year decrease from 7% from July 2021. This is the second month in a row the unemployment rate has come in below 5% this year. Despite the reduction in unemployment rates, the state is struggling with a low workforce participation rate which is the measurement of working-aged adults that are participating in the labor force and who are looking for a job. According to the Department of Workforce solutions (DWS), there is a need for more workers across all industries. The DWS says it has been focusing on the issue by setting up programs funded largely by federal dollars and creating a template for outreach to non-working New Mexicans.
https://www.petedinelli.com/2022/08/23/drop-in-new-mexicos-unemployment-rate-to-4-5-vacancies-and-need-for-workers-abound-state-well-on-its-way-to-recovering-to-pre-pandemic-work-levels-republicans-forget-7-8-unemployment/exicans.
- COVID 19
Very Serious: 25% Somewhat Serious: 35% Minor: 25% No Problem: 14% Don’t Know/Would Not Say: 1%
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The 25% “Very Serious” % “Somewhat Serious” concern over Covid 19 is a clear indication that the state, much like the rest of the country, is now pulling out of the effects of the pandemic and is in an indicator that things are indeed getting back to normal and proof of the effectiveness of the vaccines. The 25% “very serious” concern is in sharp contrast to two years ago when the pandemic resulted in closure of businesses, schools and public functions and mask mandates when there were no vaccines.
Notwithstanding the decline of Covid 19 as being a “very serious” concern to voters, the poll broke along party lines on COVID-19. According to the Journal report:
“Supporters of Governor Lujan Grisham, who issued public health care orders and restricted in-person activity at businesses and schools during early parts of the pandemic, were much more likely than supporters of other candidates to describe COVID-19 as a very serious problem at 29% or somewhat serious problem at 42%. … Lujan Grisham’s supporters appeared to give her credit for being tough on COVID and addressing it. Just 21% of Ronchetti supporters described COVID-19 as a very serious problem, and 27% described it as a somewhat serious concern.”
JOURNAL POLL REPORT ON CAUSES OF CRIME
On September 1 the Albuquerque Journal reported the results of its poll on voters’ opinions on what they believe are the leading causes of crime. Those polled on the “causes of crime” were allowed up to 3 responses and the poll compiled the top 9 answers.
CAUSES OF CRIME
The Journal poll questioned voters on their beliefs as to the causes of high crime rates. The poll question and the results reported are as follows:
“What do you believe is the leading cause of New Mexico’s high crime rate?”
DRUGS: 31%
POVERTY: 15%
RELEASING DEFENDANTS AHEAD OF TRIAL: 15%
LIGHT SENTENCES OF JUDGES: 14%
HOMELESSNESS: 13%
WEAK/BROKEN CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM:12%
POOR ECONOMY: 8%
UNEMPLOYMENT: 8%
NOT ENOUGH POLICE OFFICERS: 8%
Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc., whose company did the poll, had this to say to the Journal about the poll results:
“Seven out of the 10 most frequently mentioned issues among likely voters deal with societal issues, challenges that we face regarding drug abuse, poverty, economy, homelessness, mental illness. … And three of the 10 are dealing more with criminal justice issues.”
Sanderoff said that the causes for crime by those polls broke along party lines. Republican voters were more likely to mention problems in the criminal justice system while Democrats were more likely to mention societal issues. Sanderoff said this:
“When you look at the same thing by candidate … Michelle Lujan Grisham supporters are nearly twice as likely to mention poverty than Ronchetti supporters.”
GUN CONTROL
On Sunday, September 4, the Journal published poll results on two-gun control proposals. Both proposals received overwhelming bi partisan support from those polled. The poll questions and results were as follows:
Do you support or oppose legislation in New Mexico to raise the age from 18 to 21 to purchase an AR-15 style semi-automatic rifle?
Support: 72%
Oppose: 21%
It depends: 4%
Don’t know/won’t say: 2%
DINELLI COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
New Mexico lawmakers in recent years have passed laws expanding background check requirements for firearm purchases and allowing guns to be seized from individuals deemed to pose a threat to themselves or others. But with the state’s firearm violence rate still high, many voters want lawmakers to enact additional gun control measures.
While Democratic voters were significantly more likely to support the gun control measures, a majority of Republican voters surveyed also expressed support for both proposals. A total of 61% of GOP voters surveyed support making it a crime to fail to store guns safely around children, while 53% of Republicans said they support raising the minimum age to purchase AR-15-style rifles.
Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., had this to say:
“We’re seeing that even conservative voters, at least a small majority of them support raising the minimum age to purchase certain firearms.”
It is difficult to gage what effect, if any, the passage of “gun safety” measures as the poll questions suggest, will have on reducing gun violence and mass shootings. More realistic proposals that will likely reduce gun violence would be proposals such as banning the manufacturing, sale or distribution of AR-15 style semi-automatic rifles and, in the state, gun registration, banning large capacity gun magazines and types of ammunition and mandatory background checks and perhaps repealing the state’s open carry provision in its constitution.
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMEMT FOR K-12 FUNDING
On September 3, the Albuquerque Journal published the poll results on the constitutional amendment that will to tap more heavily into New Mexico’s permanent school fund is drawing broad voter support ahead of the Nov. 8 election.
The poll question asked was:
Do you support or oppose the proposed constitutional amendment that would distribute more money from New Mexico’s Land Grant Permanent School Fund to be used for early childhood education, teacher compensation, and K-12 education programs?
The poll results were as follows:
Support: 69%
Oppose: 15%
It depends: 8%
Don’t know/won’t say: 8%
Although the constitutional amendment has strong bi-partisan support, Democrats support the measure by 23% more than Republicans, while Republican opposition is upwards of 4 times of Democrats.
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
New Mexico’s permanent fund for education funding is one of the largest of such funds in the United States. The fund grows with a combination of investment income and royalty revenue from oil and gas production on state lands. The proposed amendment if it passes will boost the annual distribution for the permanent school fund to 6.25%.
According to Legislative Finance Committee economists, the state receives 5% out of the permeant fund each year to spend on public schools and other beneficiaries. The fund will be providing $1.3 billion the current 2022-2023 fiscal year. Bottom of Form
State economists say the proposed amendment will generate upwards of $230 million a year in new revenue with 60% of the funds to be dedicated to early childhood education and 40% for K-12 education.
Even if the amendment does not pass the annual funding for early childhood programs has been increase dramatically by the legislature going from $179 million to $579 million over a 10-year period.
Supporters say the investment would be worth it, making more money available for programs that can interrupt the cycle of poverty, and improve the education and well-being of New Mexico’s children.
Opponents of the increased withdrawals say it would eventually leave the state with smaller annual distributions because pulling more out of the fund now will slow its growth.
ABOUT THE JOURNAL POLL
“The Journal Poll was based on a scientific, statewide sample of 518 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Aug. 19 through Aug. 25. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (79%) and landlines (21%) of proven general election voters were used. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.”
FOLLOW THE MONEY
On September 12, the candidates for Governor filed their latest campaign finance reports. It covered a two-month period.
GOVERNOR MICHELL LUJAN GRISHAM
The Governor reported an opening balance of $2,749,077.80.
Total Monetary Contributions the reporting period was $2,590,990.40.
Total Expenditures the Reporting Period was $2,376,845.55.
The closing balance for the Reporting Period was $2,963,222.65.
Total In-Kind Contributions the Reporting Period was $12,225.00.
The Governor reported raising nearly $2.6 million, bringing her total fundraising for her reelection campaign to slightly more than $10 million which is more than the $9.7 million raised when first running for governor in 2018. Currently, Lujan Grisham has roughly $3 million in her campaign account with less than two months until Election Day.
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s campaign finance report can be viewed here:
https://login.cfis.sos.state.nm.us//Files/ReportsOutput//103/d7180219-a9c4-4b5c-bf47-b846e82a0df3.pdf
MARK RONCHETTI
Mark Ronchetti reported and opening balance of $1,415,075.12
Total Monetary Contributions the Reporting Period were $2,402,094.31
Total Expenditures the Reporting Period were $1,404,539.04 d.
The Closing Balance was $2,412,630.39
Total In-Kind Contributions this Reporting Period was $10,996.52
Ronchetti reported raising $2.4 million during the same reporting period. He spent roughly $1.4 million on TV ads and other expenses, leaving upwards $2.4 million in his campaign war chest.
Republican Mark Ronchetti’s finance report can be viewed here:
https://login.cfis.sos.state.nm.us//Files/ReportsOutput//103/dda701b4-b57f-4837-9a4a-837037175310.pdf
VOTER REGISTRATION
No matter the polls, it is the final vote that counts. Governor Lujan Grisham has the upper hand when it comes to voter registration.
Democrats have a decisive 13.8% advantage over Republicans in the state. As the saying goes, “Republicans win in New Mexico when Democrats stay home on election day.”
According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state. The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows:
Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,
Registered Republicans: 414,067 or 30.8 %,
No Party or Independents: 301,598 or 22.5 %
Registered Libertarian: 13,644 or 1.0 %
Other Registrations: 14,139 or 1.1 %
https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
Averaging out all 3 of the polls reflects that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham polling average is 47.66% compared to Ronchetti’s 39.66% Ronchetti has yet to surpass 43% in any of the public polling which is essentially the Republican base in New Mexcio. Lujan Grisham has yet to bust the 50% plus one to clinch a victory, but she is off by 2% to 3%.
There is less than two months left before the November 2 general election, but in politics that can be an eternity, and anything can happen. Notwithstanding, Governor Lujan Grisham has led in the polls throughout the race and she has busted out a two-digit lead over Ronchetti in one poll.
Debates still remain, anything can happen including missteps by the candidates and both candidates have hefty amounts of campaign cash that make it certain that the race is far from over.
