On August 29, in an exclusive interview with KOAT-TV, Mayor Tim Keller made it known that in 2025 he will be seeking a third 4-year term as Mayor. Keller made it know he is running for a third term during a wide ranging exclusive interview with Channel 7 on topics including public safety, APD staffing, crime statistics, the homeless and the ongoing controversy where APD Chief Harold caused a crash sending a man to the hospital in critical condition.
During the exclusive interview, Keller appeared somewhat subdued with a forced smile on his face saying times have been tough for the city during the last 10 years but many projects he has started will not be completed until 2027. He said he wants to finish the work he has started. Keller took some credit for crime going down and defended Chief Medina saying the car crash he caused had been fully investigated not mentioning the personal injury lawsuit filed against the city and Medina. Chief Medina has already said he has no intention of resigning and will be retiring just before the November, 2025 municipal election.
KOAT TV INTERVIEW
Below is the KOAT-TV on line transcribed report as written by KOAT TV staff reporter Julian Paras followed by the link to the report:
HEADLINE: ABQ Mayor Tim Keller: ‘I am planning on another term’
The Albuquerque mayor says there’s still work to be done. He also wants to see additional progress made in the city.
“It’s no secret I am planning on another term, but it’s to see this through,” Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller said Thursday. “I always say, like, 2027 is going to be a great year because all these projects I’ve been working on are going to be done, but I got to make sure I’m there to see it, so that’s what I’m thinking right now.”
Keller said there are improvements being made to enhance public safety and quality of life, but that more needs to be done.
Keller also mentioned that homelessness is also a big issue and says initiatives like the Gateway Center, which houses 900 people a day now, are factors that make a difference for Albuquerque. The mayor said he’s seen a growth in population and economic development, like solar manufacturing, to keep people here and build on even more.
KOAT Political Expert Brian Sanderoff says he’s not surprised by Keller’s plans to run for a third term as mayor.
“Oftentimes when a person decides he’s not going to run again, they start acting a little differently or be less engaged in the like or start thinking about other offices they might be considering,” Sanderoff said.
The link to the KOAT TV report is here:
KELLER ISSUES STATEMENT
On August 30, in further response to the Channel 7 news report, Mayor Keller issued the following statement:
“I’ve been publicly asked about once a month for the last year about my intent to run, and I always want to give a straightforward answer. I plan to ask voters for another term to finish key projects like building out the Gateways, the consent decree, downtown revitalization, solidifying our social service response department, the Rail Yards film school and a dozen or so other critical projects. As I’ve stated in the past, I would formally announce early next year.”
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
It comes as absolutely no surprise to city hall observers that Mayor Tim Keller is running for a third 4-year term as Mayor. Last year before the November 2023 municipal election, Keller made it known to at least two city council candidates he supported and his executive staff he was running for a third term. The real surprise is why he is he making it known now, during the middle of a Presidential election and when the 2025 municipal election is over a full year away on November 4, 2025. Keller has essentially announced his bid for a third term with absolutely no fanfare, no crowd of adoring supporters, no public event, no hoopla, no family present with him, not even his wife and two children, and no inspiring speech to be reported on by all local news outlets.
KELLER’S LOW APPROVAL RATING LIKELY HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH
Mayor Keller knows he has an uphill battle for another term given all the problems the city is still facing with little to show for despite all his efforts, the millions spent on the unhoused and public safety and his good intentions. He is likely trying to keep opposition out of the race.
Voters are increasingly making it known they are not at all satisfied with his overall job performance. On November 3, 2023, the Albuquerque Journal released a poll on Mayor Keller’s job performance. The poll was conducted by its long-time polling firm Research & Polling which is considered the gold standard when it comes to political polls because of its accuracy.
The Journal poll asked the singular question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Keller is handling his job as Mayor?”
The results of the poll were dramatic:
- 40% said they DISAPPROVE
- 33% said they APPROVED
- 21% said they had mixed feelings
- 5% would not say
Tim Keller has always been the eternal optimist with a smile on his face and a grin in his voice. He downplayed the poll results when asked about the results noting that the 33% who approve of his job performance and the 21% who reported mixed feelings together make up 54% of those polled and saying the 54% is nearly equal to his 56% performance he had in his 2021 bid for a second term. In 2021 he ran against former Democrat Sherriff Manny Gonzales and Republican Trumpster shock jock Eddy Aragon. Keller told the Journal this about its poll:
“I think there is certainly plenty of runway left.”
CHRONOLOGY OF KELLER’S DECLINING POPULARITY
It was during his 2021 campaign for a second term that Keller registered a 50% approval rating in the Journal Poll. Previous Journal Polls found a majority in Albuquerque approved of Mayor Tim Keller during his first term, including 60% in 2020 and 61% in 2018.
In 2017 then New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller was elected Mayor coming in first by beating all 7 of his opponents to get into a runoff. He went on to win in 2017 by a decisive landslide against City Councilor Dan Lewis who secured 37.8% with Keller winning with 62.2% of the vote.
Mayor Keller won his 2021 election to a second 4-year term with 56% of the final vote and beating Sheriff Manny Gonzales who secured 26% of the vote and Der Führer Trump Radio Shock Jock Eddy Aragon secured 18% of the vote.
CITIZENS SATISFACTION SURVEY REFLECTS PUBLIC DISATIFACTION WITH KELLER
On April 16, 2024, a mere 5 months ago, the results of the annual City of Albuquerque Citizen Perception Survey were released. The annual survey is done to determine residents’ satisfaction with city services and issues. The results of the survey were as follows:
QUALITY OF LIFE
Financial security deals with “quality of life.” 50% of city residents felt their personal financial situation largely stayed the same over the previous 6 months. 37% reported that their personal financial situation had gotten worse over the last six months, while just 12% felt their financial situation had gotten better.
PERSONAL SAFETY
69% of city residents reported feeling safe outside in their neighborhoods. 81% of city residents said that speeding and reckless driving affected their feelings of safety. Illegal drug use is the second most significant contributor to residents not feeling safe. It edged out speeding and reckless driving in intensity with a whopping 77% of residents saying very much or somewhat.
CITY SERVICES
According to the Citizens Satisfaction survey 61% “disagree” and 35% “agree” that “the Albuquerque City Government is responsive to our community needs.”
HOMELESSNESS
23% of city residents felt panhandling impacted them and their family the most, while 17% feel homeless encampments impacts the most for a combined total of 40% for the two issues. Homeless numbers have spiked dramatically despite the Keller administration spending over $100 million the last two years on assistance and shelter to the homeless and is planning to spend another $65 million during the current fiscal year of 2024 to 2025 which began on July 1.
DIRECTION CITY IS GOING
According to the Citizens Satisfaction Survey 63% of city residents reported that they do not feel the city is going in the right direction with only 31% say they are hopeful about the direction the city is going.
ALBUQUERQUE POLICE DEPARTMENT
According to the Citizens Satisfaction Survey Sixty 60% of city residents “disagree” and 35% “agree” that the APD is doing a good job addressing property crime. 56% of city residents “disagree” and 39% “agree” that APD is doing a good job addressing violent crime.
According to the Citizens Satisfaction Survey, 51% of city residents “disagree” that “the Albuquerque Police Department is ready to transition away from oversight by the federal government and operate on its own” while only 39% “agree.” These APD ratings are despite the fact that APD has now achieved compliance with the Federal mandated reforms and APD is on track for the case to be dismissed after APD sustains the 3 compliance levels for two full years.
ANALYSIS OF APD
APD’s budget is $271.5 million and is the largest department budget, representing upwards of 33% of the city’s $845.9 million general fund budget. The citizen satisfaction survey reflects the public has lost confidence in APD and is dissatisfied with how APD is dealing with property crime and violent crime with the resources it has.
The ongoing FBI investigation of the entire DWI unit of APD for bribery and conspiracy and dismissal of hundreds of DWI cases has destroyed APD’s reputation. APD’s finding that Chief Harold Medina’s car crash critically injuring another was “non-preventable” reflects APD is unable to police itself.
It has been reported APD ranks No. 1 in civilian killings out of the 50 largest city police departments in the country.
DIRECTION CITY IS GOING
The city’s annual budget is $1.2 billion and it employs over 7,000 full-time employees, yet the citizens survey said residents do not believe city government is responsive to their needs.
It’s alarming that 63% of city residents say they are concerned over the direction the city is going and 61% disagreeing city government is responsive to community needs. These ratings reflect the general public believes Mayor Tim Keller and the City Council are failures managing city resources.
The Citizens Satisfaction Survey is a reflection of Mayor Keller’s poor job performance as he prepares to run for a third term. Voters want results when it comes to APD and the direction the city is going. After seven years in office, Mayor Keller and his APD management team have failed.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Not with standing declining job approval ratings, poor job performance and all public criticism of Mayor Keller, he is still favored for election to a third term. This is primarily because no one knows if he will have a serious opponent who can amount an effective campaign against him. He has never lost an election and has won all of his elections by a landslide. He has a built-in advantage with an existing campaign organization and the ability to raise large sums of campaign cash along with a campaign manager who resorts to slash and burn tactics to disparage opposition and win at all costs.
Now that Keller has confirmed that he is indeed running, efforts to recruit candidates to run against him will likely begin in earnest. One month, let alone a full year, can be a lifetime in politics. So much can change in a heartbeat as is evidenced by Vice President Kamala Harris running against Trump. The city’s ongoing homicide and violent crime rates, the homeless crisis and the ongoing train wreck known as the Albuquerque Police Department are all potential pitfalls that could continue to bring Keller’s approval ratings down and cost him the election.
There is very little doubt that the Albuquerque Journal will be conducting a poll on the November 5, 2024, New Mexico general election and the election races in New Mexico’s federal offices and the Presidential election. It likely the Journal poll will include the major issues. As was the case in 2022, you can expect the Albuquerque Journal to include another question on Mayor Tim Keller job performance. If a new Journal Poll does indeed confirm Keller’s low approval rating getting worse, he just might reconsider running for a third term and move on with APD Chief Medina to greener pastures. The problem for Keller is there may be no greener pastures to run for higher office as has been the case for all of Albuquerque’s Mayors with the job as Mayor considered a dead end.
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