For many decades, the Albuquerque Journal has commissioned polls for general elections in New Mexico. The newspaper retains as its exclusive pollster the polling firm Research & Polling. Founded in 1986 by its President and CEO Brian Sanderoff, Research & Polling Inc. is New Mexico’s largest full-service market research and public opinion research company. The company today serves a wide variety of prominent national and New Mexico clients. https://www.rpinc.com/ When it comes to New Mexico politics. Research & Polling Inc is considered the gold standard of political polls because of its lengthy history of reliability and accuracy.
This year’s poll was conducted from September 6 to September 13 and excluded the evening of September 10 due to the presidential debate. The 2024 general election year poll included polling on the top issues including crime, the economy, education, border security and gun control.
During the week of September 16 to September 22 the Albuquerque Journal ran front page articles reporting on the results of the poll. This blog article is an edited an quoted summary of the articles and poll results on the major issues as reported by the Albuquerque Journal followed by the links to the quoted articles in full relied upon:
ISSUES MOST CONCERNING TO VOTERS
The Albuquerque Journal poll asked respondents what is the biggest issue or concern facing New Mexico residents right now? No single issue took precedence by a landslide. A majority of voters mentioned one of six issues as their top concern and those were inflation, crime, (K-12) education, weak economy/jobs/wages, illegal immigration/border security and homelessness. Among other issues most cited were drugs, poverty, abortion, healthcare reform, gun control. Local/state government ethics, mental healt/behavioral health, quality of higher education system and climate change.
The results of the six top issues of concern were:
- INFLATION: 18%
- CRIME: 16%
- QUALITY OF K-12 Education: 9%
- WEAK ECONOMY/JOBS/WAGES: 8%
- ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION/BORDER SECURITY: 8%
- HOMELESSNESS: 7%
Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., said “this is just a way of getting a person’s top of mind, gut feeling [on] what’s the biggest thing. It doesn’t mean those other things aren’t of value.” He noted that of the top five issues, two are related to the economy and two are related to crime.
Sanderoff said while the 18% and 16% difference between inflation and the economy isn’t that big, more voters are concerned about inflation because it impacts more people directly than crime does. Sanderoff said this:
“Everyone is impacted by the cost of living and cost of housing, cost of gasoline. … Crime is something that many people are directly impacted by, but many people are not. … Many people are just seeing it on TV news and reading about in the paper.”
“According to the poll, voters in the Albuquerque metro area are the most worried about crime, with 20% of people saying that’s the biggest issue. In contrast, only 6% of voters in eastern New Mexico said that’s the priority concern.
Only 14% of Albuquerque metro voters mark inflation as their top concern, much less than other areas of the state that had 18-24% of people most concerned about it.
Ideologically, voters leaning conservative, moderate and liberal largely agreed that inflation and crime are the top issues. The poll results found 17% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans thought that inflation was the biggest concern, while 16% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans said crime was the biggest issue.
Stark differences in partisanship came from those who chose illegal immigration or border security as their top issue. In the poll, 17% of Republicans compared to 2% of Democrats marked that as New Mexico residents’ biggest issue.
A few other concerns made the list, including poverty, abortion, health care reform and gun control, though only 2-3% of voters named any of those issues as their biggest concerns. Meanwhile, 5% of those responding decided not to say or didn’t know what their biggest issue was.”
The link to the entire cited and quoted Albuquerque Journal article with graphs is here:
MOST NEW MEXICANS THINK CRIME IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM
According to the Journal poll, most New Mexicans think crime is a problem and that drugs, poverty and homelessness are to blame. A smaller number believe illegal immigration, a broken criminal justice system and guns are the leading cause. The results, came from two crime-related questions:
- How serious of a problem is crime?
- What is the leading cause of crime?
84% of likely voters think crime is a very or somewhat serious problem, 12% see it as a minor problem and 3% see crime as “no problem at all.” Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., said this:
“Crime is seen as a big problem and opinions do vary, depending on where you live and who you are.”
“Women were more likely than men, 57% to 46%, to see crime as a “very serious” problem, according to the poll. Younger adults, between the ages of 18 and 34, were less likely to see crime as a very serious problem compared with 61% of those ages 50 to 64 years old. Sanderoff said “Younger people are more likely to feel they’re invulnerable” but added that 82% of young people still feel crime is more than just a minor problem.”
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON CRIME
The poll found that 60% of those who live in the Albuquerque metro area, where most of the state’s crime occurs, feel it is a very serious problem while 37% in eastern New Mexico and 39% in Las Cruces and the southwestern part of the state agree.
In north central New Mexico, 22% see crime as a minor problem. Sanderoff pointed out that area encompasses more than just Santa Fe and includes Taos, Las Vegas and smaller communities. Sanderoff said this:
“So we’re seeing a big difference in perceptions regarding the seriousness of crime when it comes to how very serious it is. … Attitudes toward the seriousness of crime do vary based on where you live or which political party you’re a member of.”
PARTY AFFILIATION REFLECTS ATTITUDES TOWARD CAUSES OF CRIME
Republicans and conservatives were more likely, 60% and 61%, respectively, to say it’s a very serious problem compared with 47% of Democrats and 38% of liberals, according to the poll.
Sanderoff said this:
“You’re always going to hear those people, including probably [Albuquerque] Mayor Tim Keller and others, say, ‘Well, yeah, crime is a problem, but the crime statistics demonstrate that we are plateauing or even in declining in certain crime statistics.” And so you’ll always find some people who will say, ‘Yeah, I think the perception is worse than the reality.’ And liberals might be part of that group. They’re more likely to defend Democratic leadership, whether it be in Albuquerque or the state of New Mexico.”
“For the question on the cause of crime, those polled were not given choices and were asked to offer a response to the pollster calling.
The poll found that drugs took the top spot with 26% of likely voters saying it was the leading cause, followed by poverty with 16% and homelessness with 12%. Sanderoff said “it’s pretty telling” that a high proportion of likely voters cited drugs. He said some may be thinking of cartels trafficking fentanyl across the border while others think of the violence with someone getting killed during a deal gone bad.”
In north central New Mexico 37%, the highest majority, cited drugs and Sanderoff said that could be tied to places like Rio Arriba County’s “generational problem with heroin.” Sanderoff said this:
“One thing of interest though — those three items are all interrelated. … The top three causes that people mentioned, drugs, poverty and homelessness are all interrelated, because some of the key causes of homelessness are either poverty or drugs.”
“Democrats were more likely to mention those three as leading causes, according to the poll. Democrats and liberals, 21% and 29%, respectively, cited poverty compared with 7% of Republicans and 6% of conservatives.”
“The poll found that 8% of likely voters, largely Republicans, felt the cause was judges giving light sentences, 7% blamed a broken criminal justice system and 6% cited so-called “catch and release.” Another 7% of likely voters said the cause was a poor economy, 7% said illegal immigration and 6% said guns.”
“Among Republicans, 15% cited illegal immigration compared with 1% of Democrats, according to the poll. Among Democrats, 9% said guns were the leading cause compared with 1% of Republicans.”
Sanderoff said this of the results:
“We’ve got the Republicans more likely to say things like light sentences from judges, illegal immigration, revolving door — they’re more likely to mention those things than are the Democrats. … Democrats lean more toward things like poverty, homelessness, drugs as well. So all of that’s interesting. … So there are differences in the parties as to what they think the causes of crime are.”
The link to the cited and quoted Albuquerque Journal report is here:
THE ECONOMY: PEOPLE FEEL NO BETTER OFF NOW THAN BEFORE PANDEMIC
The Albuquerque Journal poll asked likely voters two questions on New Mexico’s economy:
- How would you rate the conditions of New Mexico’s economy?
- How would you rate your finances compared to just a few years ago before the pandemic?
According to the Journal Poll, most New Mexicans do not have a favorable view of the state’s economy. They rate the economy as fair or poor. A majority say they are worse off financially or about the same as before the COVID-19 pandemic.
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
“According to the poll, 40% of likely voters rated economic conditions as fair, while another 38% rated the economy as poor. Another 19% rated economic conditions as good, 1% responded excellent, and 2% either didn’t know or wouldn’t say. Among those in eastern New Mexico, 50% rated the state’s economy as poor, while 27% in north central New Mexico (Santa Fe and Taos) rated it the same.”
PARTY AFFILIATION, EDUCATION IMPACT PERCEPTION OF ECONOMY
Brian Sanderoff said that party affiliation has an impact on perception of the economy.
“Republicans (61%) are much more likely to have rated New Mexico’s economy as poor compared to Democrats (25%). Democrats (43%) and independent/unaffiliated voters (50%) were more likely to rate the economy as fair. Those same groups were also more likely to rate the economy as good, with 28% of Democrats and 18% of independent voters rating it that way. Sanderoff said some likely voters, particularly Democrats, who rate the economy as good or fair may see improving economic conditions with inflation cooling significantly over the last few months.
Educational attainment levels are also a big predictor of the assessment of economic conditions. Those with a college degree are much less likely to rate economic conditions poorly, Sanderoff said. There aren’t “tremendously big differences,” Sanderoff said, when it comes to gender, with 42% of males and 37% of women rating the economy as fair, and another 36% of males and 41% of females rating the economy as poor.”
PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
Those surveyed were asked if they are financially better off, worse off or about the same compared to a few years ago. 38% of those surveyed said they were worse off followed by 37% who said about the same. 24% percent of likely voters said they are better off.
“Despite increases in wages and a relatively low unemployment rate, Sanderoff said he suspects that few voters rate the economy as excellent or good due to the cost of living and cost of housing, which have taken on sharp increases post-COVID.
In Albuquerque, for instance, the median sales price for a single-family detached home, the most common type in the area, was $361,000, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors. That’s up from $226,000 in August 2019.
“Concerns about inflation, I think, are impacting people’s assessment of the economic conditions,” Sanderoff said.
Likely voters’ views on the state’s economic conditions, Sanderoff said, are partly reflected in how people perceive their finances.
62% of both Republicans and self-reported conservatives said they are worse off compared to 23% of Democrats and 19% of liberals. And 32% of Democrats and 38% of liberals are more likely to say they are better off.
Roughly 44% of Democrats said they are financially about the same, compared to 25% of Republicans.
In eastern New Mexico, where more Republicans and conservatives tend to live, 58% said they are worse off compared to 34% in the Albuquerque metro.”
Those 18-34 years of age (36%) and 35-49 years of age (32%) were also more likely to say they are better off than before COVID compared to those between the ages of 50-64 (18%) and 65-older (16%).
Sanderoff said this about age:
“Younger people are still ascending in their positions at work, they’re still getting promotions above and beyond salary increases. … And then as you get older — retirement years or beginning to plateau at work — you’re seeing less wage increases. … People who are retired are living on fixed incomes, and therefore are more susceptible to the ill effects of inflation.”
The link to the cited and quoted Albuquerque Journal article with graphs is here:
GUN CONTROL
The journal poll asked two-gun control questions:
Do you support or oppose legislation in New Mexico raising the age t0 purchase an AR-15 style semiautomatic rifle from 18 to 21 years old?
- 75% support
- 20% oppose
- 4% were undecided
- 1% did not know
An overwhelming majority of 75% of registered, likely voters surveyed said they would favor legislation raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15-style rifle, while 20% expressed opposition. A majority of both male and female voters supported the idea, though women were more likely than men to express support, and most voters surveyed in all regions of New Mexico backed the proposal. The poll results showed a majority of both Democratic and Republican voters in support, with 59% of Republicans expressing support compared to 36% in opposition.
Do you support or oppose legislation in New Mexico banning the sale of AR-15 style semiautomatic rifles?
- 52% support
- 43% oppose
- 4% were undecided
- 1% did not know
“A ban is a bridge too far for many Republicans and residents of certain parts of the state,” said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc.
“Support levels among male voters and Republicans dropped sharply when it came to the question of whether to enact a ban on AR-15-style rifles. The percentage of male voters who supported a ban was 38% — compared to 69% of male voters who supported increasing the minimum age to buy such firearms — and a majority of voters in three of the state’s five regions opposed the idea of an assault weapon ban. Most voters in the Albuquerque metro area and north-central New Mexico, which includes Santa Fe, expressed support for the proposal.”
The link to the cited and quoted Albuquerque Journal article with graphs is here:
SUPPORT FOR BORDER WALL INCREASES
The Journal poll found that New Mexicans’ support for a border wall along the U.S., Mexico border has increased since 2018. The poll also found that the state’s voters are also concerned with border security, with 84% of likely voters surveyed saying the border is a somewhat serious or very serious problem.
“Of the likely voters surveyed, 52% support building a border wall and 37% oppose it, with 8% who were undecided or said it depends, and 3% who don’t know or won’t say. This is a dramatic change and is higher since the last time the Journal polled this question in 2018, when 37% of voters supported building a border wall and 56% opposed it.”
“New Mexican voters are also more concerned about border security than they were in 2018. In a 2018 poll, 69% of people polled said border security was a very or somewhat serious problem. The new poll found a 15 percentage point increase, with 84% saying border security was a very or somewhat serious problem. The new poll shows 53% of voters said border security was a very serious problem, 31% said it was a somewhat serious problem, 11% said it was a minor problem and 3% said it was no problem at all. In 2018, 39% said it was a very serious problem and 10% said it was no problem at all.”
PARTISAN DIVIDE ON BORDER WALL
“The poll reveals that support for continuing to build a border wall was partisan, with a quarter of Democrats, and the vast majority, 91%, of Republicans in support. Independents were evenly split on the issue, with 41% in support, 42% opposed and 14% undecided.”
“Having a positive opinion of former President Donald Trump correlates strongly with support for continuing to build a border wall. Among voters with a favorable opinion of Trump, 90% support continuing to build the border wall, while the majority of voters with an unfavorable opinion of Trump oppose continuing to build the border wall, with only 23% in that group supportive of continuing to build the wall.”
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES ON BORDER WALL
“The Journal poll revealed big regional variations in border wall support. Support is strong for a border wall in northwest New Mexico at 61% and very strong within the eastern region of the state, with 71% of voters polled in that region supportive of continuing to build the border wall.”
“In the Albuquerque metro area support is weaker, with 49% of voters in favor and 40% opposed. The north-central region, which includes Santa Fe and Taos and is the most liberal leaning area of the state, is the only region where there is more opposition to the idea than support, with 33% supportive of building the border wall and 50% opposed.”
In the Las Cruces and southwest area where three counties are actually on the border with Mexico, there is slightly more support than statewide and slightly more opposition, with fewer voters undecided. Among voters in the southwest region 55% support continuing to build the border wall, 40% are opposed and 5% are undecided.”
The link to the cited and quoted Albuquerque Journal report is here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2% percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Whenever polls such as this are released, the general voting public and candidates themselves tend to dismiss them saying the poll is not accurate because so few are interviewed. Like it or not, the public still view them with intense interest much like when people slow down as they pass a car wreck. When it comes to the major issues facing New Mexico voters, the Albuquerque Journal poll provides a solid reflection of what is going on in voters’ minds.