On October 20 and 21, the Albuquerque Journal began publishing its final polls taken before the November 5 election. Following are the results of the Presidential and the Second Congressional District race polls:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL
Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained her advantage over Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race in New Mexico securing 50% of registered, likely voters surveyed in the poll while 41% said they were voting for Trump. The previous Journal poll conducted last month found Harris with a lead over Trump by 10%. The previous poll featured 7% of voters who said they had not yet decided who they would vote for in the November 5 general election.
The number of undecided voters dropped to 4% in the new poll. An additional 3% of voters surveyed said they would still vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who dropped out of the race in August and endorsed Trump but is still on New Mexico’s ballot.
Four years ago, President Joe Biden defeated then-incumbent Trump in New Mexico by 11% points or roughly 100,000 votes. Neither Trump nor Harris has held a campaign stop in the state in the run-up to Election Day.
In the new Journal poll, Harris’ advantage over Trump in New Mexico was largely driven by strong support among female voters and those with a college or graduate degree. While male voters were largely split between the two leading presidential candidates, women voters surveyed were far more likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris than former President Donald Trump.
Harris has made reproductive rights a key issue in her campaign following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Trump for his part has criticized Biden and Harris for their handling of the U.S. economy and border security and Trump has seen an increase in popularity among Hispanic voters. The new Journal poll found 41% of Hispanic voters surveyed expressed support for Trump.
That support level among Hispanic voters was higher than it was in the previous poll, and above what most Republican candidates have received in recent New Mexico statewide elections.
REGIONAL VIEWS
In the new poll, Vice President Harris held a significant edge over Trump in the Albuquerque metro area and in north central New Mexico, with voters in the two regions preferring her over Trump by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.
Not surprisingly, Trump had a big advantage in the traditionally conservative eastern part of New Mexico and in the northwest corner of the state, with voters more evenly split in the southern part of the state that includes Las Cruces.
PARTY AFFILIATIONS
The poll found there were about 10% of Democrats surveyed who expressed support for Trump than Republicans who said they would vote for Harris. The difference was not enough to offset the fact there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Mexico.
Among independent voters, or those who declined to state a party affiliation, Harris held a 19-point advantage. And self-described moderate voters from all political affiliations were far more likely to back Harris than Trump, with 60% of moderates saying they would vote for Harris and 28% saying they planned to back Trump.
The link to the quoted and relied upon October 20 Albuquerque Journal article with photos, graphs and charts is here:
SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL
In 2021, Congressional District 2 was redrawn. Redistricting broke up the conservative stronghold of Eddy, Lea and Chaves counties. The new boundary lines withstood a GOP court challenge. The congressional district is now more geographically diverse. It encompasses most of southern New Mexico, including parts of the oil patch in Lea and Eddy counties and all of Las Cruces, then reaching north all the way into Albuquerque’s South Valley and West Side.
According to a new Journal Poll, Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez leads by 4% points with support from 49% of likely voters surveyed while Republican challenger Yvette Herrell is close behind with 45% of voter support. The lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% points. The poll found 5% of voters surveyed were undecided.
The Journal poll found that Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.
A former Las Cruces city councilor, Democrat Gabe Vasquez won his seat in Congress by approximately 1,300 votes in 2022, unseating Yvette Herrell, a former state legislator from Alamogordo. Two years later, Herrell is trying to reclaim it.
Abortion has been the most common theme in campaign ads. Vasquez has repeatedly hammered Herrell over her record on abortion in campaign ads and at rallies. In response, Herrell released a television ad to clarify her stance on abortion.
The Vasquez-Harrell race is the most expensive of the three U.S. House races in New Mexico. Herrell has raised $3.7 million and has $1.1 million cash on hand, while Vasquez has raised $6.1 million and has $1.8 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Both campaigns have attracted major support of congressional leaders. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy helped Herrell launch her campaign last year. Speaker Mike Johnson went to Las Cruces for Herrell in August and is scheduled to visit Carlsbad for a Herrell campaign event on October 23. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came to Albuquerque in early October at Vasquez’s invitation, where he attended events to promote all three Democratic congressional representatives in their reelection campaigns.
UNDECIDED INDEPENDENTS INCREASES
In the final Journal poll, party affiliation was the biggest predictor of candidate preference. While Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.
However, more independent or decline to state voters supported Vasquez as well. He had 51% of support among those voters, while Herrell had 32%.
Unlike the Republican and Democratic voters surveyed, the independent voters had more people still on the fence, with 15% of independent voters undecided.
EDUCATION AND ETHNICITY BREAKDOWN
In a pattern similar to that found in other New Mexico and national races, the Democrat Gabe Vasquez had more support among voters with higher educational.
Among voters with some college or with a high school diploma or less education, the race is nearly deadlocked. But Vasquez has a clear lead among voters with a four-year college degree or graduate degree. Herrell has a 3-point lead among voters with a high school diploma or less education, with 50% of support among this group. Vasquez has a 29-point lead among voters with a graduate degree with 64% support.
In the 2022 Journal polling during the pair’s first matchup, Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle, according to the new poll. Vasquez support dropped to 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.
The link to the quoted and relied upon October 20 Albuquerque Journal article with photos, graphs and charts is here:
POLL METHODOLOGY
“The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 1,024 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, gender, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The poll was conducted Oct. 10-18. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus- or minus-3.1 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (89%) and landlines (11%) of likely general election voters were used.”
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
New Mexico has long lost its status as a swing state in Presidential elections. Gone are the days for Presidential candidates to visit the state to secure its 5 electoral college votes. However, both the United States Senate and the House of Representative have the slimmest majorities for control.
The U.S. Senate is currently controlled by Democrats by just 2 votes and has 51 Democrats, including three independents, and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024, including a special election in Nebraska, of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control of the Senate with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.
The United States House total membership 435 Representatives with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 0 Independents and 3 Vacancies . All 435 house seats are up for re-election and given the closeness of the Presidential race, its uncertain who will control the United States House of Representatives.