On October 22, the Albuquerque Journal published its poll in the United States Senate race between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and his Republican challenger Nella Domenici.
According to the poll, Heinrich received the backing of 51% of voters surveyed while 40% said they would vote for Republican Domenici, 7% were undecided and 1% said they would not vote for either of the two. The 11-point lead in the poll for Heinrich is slightly smaller than the poll conducted last month which showed him up 50% to 38% over Domenici.
ABORTION DOMINATE ISSUE
Abortion has become the most dominant issue in the race. Republican challenger Domenici has withered under blistering attacks about her stance on abortion. Heinrich has hammered away that Domenici was recruited to run for the Senate by Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch Mc Connell so that Republicans can pass a nationwide abortion ban.
Heinrich went so far during a televised debate between the two to accuse Domenici that if she were elected she would vote in the U.S. Senate for a nationwide abortion ban. That prompted a sharp retort from Domenici, who described the remark as “the most sexist comment you could ever hear from a United States senator.”
Domenici for her part has said that New Mexico has settled the issue making abortions legal and she would not support a federal abortion ban, saying she believes abortion should be “safe, legal and rare.”
CRIME AND THE ECONOMY
Domenici for her part has been very aggressive challenging Heinrich over border security, New Mexico’s high crime rates and inflation. In her TV commercials she has said Heinrich has done nothing since being elected to curb New Mexico’s high crime rates and that he is out of touch with the financial struggles of average New Mexicans. Domenici has claimed that Heinrich has insulated himself from the business community as he refuses to meet with business executives.
Domenici has sought to portray Heinrich as a “radical” Democrat who is out of touch with most state residents’ day-to-day struggles. During her debate with Heinrich, Domenici evoked the legacy of her father the late Pete Domenici who served 36 years in the United States Senate and she said this:
“My name still carries a huge amount of bipartisan respect.”
Heinrich in response said he meets frequently with all types of New Mexicans, rebuffing criticism from Domenici. Heinrich also says his family is fully invested in Albuquerque, as he and his wife no longer own a home in Maryland they bought in 2013. Heinrich said during the recent debate between the two:
“I come home almost every weekend, because this is the place that makes me happy.”
Heinrich has attacked Domenici for not living in New Mexico for the last 50 years and only returning to run for the Senate. Domenici defended her New Mexico roots despite living on the East Coast for years, saying she and her husband have owned a home in Santa Fe for 20 years and helped launch a state charter school program. State voting records show Domenici first voted in New Mexico elections in June 2020.
ANALYSIS OF THE POLL
Brian Sanderoff, the president Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll, said Heinrich is facing a tougher reelection campaign than he did in 2018, when he easily defeated two general election opponents. Sanderoff said this:
“Nella Domenici is running a formidable race, but there still is a wide gap between the two candidates. … It’s hard to unseat a two-term Democrat U.S. senator in a blue-leaning state.”
The new Journal poll found female voters are significantly more likely than male voters to support the Democratic candidate in the U.S. Senate contest. A total of 54% of women voters surveyed said they planned to vote for Heinrich, or already had voted for him, while 37% said they planned to vote for Domenici.
Heinrich also led his opponent among male voters, though the split was much narrower. Sanderoff said this:
“We definitely have a gender gap, but Heinrich is ahead among both male and female voters.”
The new Journal poll found there was a sizable difference in voters’ views on the two candidates by education level, with voters who have a college or graduate degree backing Heinrich by a large margin.
Domenici had relatively strong support for a GOP candidate among New Mexico Hispanic voters, a group she has targeted in this year’s campaign. She also had strong leads over Heinrich in eastern New Mexico and in the state’s northwest corner.
Heinrich held a commanding advantage in the Albuquerque Metro area and in traditionally Democratic north central New Mexico, leading Domenici by wide margins in those regions.
While the new poll found Domenici getting slightly more support from Democratic voters than Heinrich is receiving from GOP voters, the difference was not enough to offset that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Mexico.
Sanderoff pointed out that his poll revealed that there appears to be low levels of ticket-splitting, meaning most voters plan to cast their votes for candidates of the same party in the presidential and U.S. Senate races.
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 1,024 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, gender, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The poll was conducted Oct. 10-18 excluding the late afternoon of Oct. 14 (due to the U.S. Senate debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus- or minus-3.1 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (89%) and landlines (11%) of likely general election voters were used.
The link to the Albquerque Journal poll with photos and graphs is here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
New Mexico has long lost its status as a swing state in Presidential elections. Gone are the days for Presidential candidates to visit the state to secure its 5 electoral college votes. However, both the United States Senate and the House of Representative have the slimmest majorities for control.
The U.S. Senate is currently controlled by Democrats by just 2 votes and has 51 Democrats, including three independents, and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024, including a special election in Nebraska, of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control of the Senate with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. In other words, the US Senate race between Martin Heinrich and Nella Domenici will no doubt play a major roll as to which party will control the United States Senate.