On October 23, the Albuquerque Journal published its polls in the 1st Congressional District race between incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Steve Jones and in the 3rd Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández and Republican Sharon Clahchischilliage. In both congressional district races the incumbent Democrats are leading by comfortable double margins to get elected and both Stansbury and Leger Fernández are likely to win reelection. In both races, 11% of voters were undecided.
POLL RESULTS
In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of likely registered voters surveyed said they plan to vote or had already voted for Democratic incumbent Melanie Stansbury. 36% of voters surveyed said they intend to or had already cast a ballot for Republican challenger Steve Jones.
The 3rd Congressional District had an almost identical breakdown, with Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández securing 52% support from likely registered voters surveyed and Republican challenger Sharon Clahchischilliage securing 35% support.
Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., the company that conducted the polls, had this to say:
“We have two incumbent U.S. congresswomen vying against two less well-known Republicans in blue-leaning congressional districts, so it’s definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans Steve Jones and Sharon Clahchischilliage.”
VOTERS STICK WITH OWN PARTY CANDIDATES
The overwhelming majority of registered voters in both congressional districts said they are sticking with their party’s candidate.
In the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Stansbury had 85% support among Democrats while Republican Jones had 77% support among of Republicans.
In the 3rd Congressional District Democrat Leger Fernández had 84% support among Democrats, while Republican Clahchischilliage had 79% support among Republicans.
Both the Incumbent Democrats also secured more support from independent or decline-to-state voters in their district.
In District 1, Incumbent Democrat Stansbury secured the support from 53% of Independent voters while Republican Jones had 28% support among Independents. 19% of independents said they were undecided in the District 1 race.
In District 3, Democrat Leger Fernández had support from 55% of Independent voters while Republican Clahchischilliage had 20% support of Independents. 21% of Independent voters said they were undecided in the District 3 race.
RESDISTRICTING KEPT BOTH DISTRICT BLUE
The 1st Congressional District includes much of Albuquerque, Placitas and Rio Rancho, all of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca and Lincoln counties and a portion of Roswell. While the district is more conservative than it was before redistricting, it did not significantly dilute its Democrat lean primarily because of Albuquerque. The 1st Congressional District picked it up the city of Rio Rancho in redistricting
During redistricting in 2021, the northern 3rd Congressional District picked up conservative areas in eastern New Mexico including portions of Hobbs. However, it lost Rio Rancho, which tends to lean Republican right which means the 3rd congressional district lost a red-leaning community and picked up some strong red-leaning counties, so the overall blue lean of the district did not change significantly.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 1 POLL
Congressional District 1 incumbent Democrat Stansbury, 45, is a former state legislator from Albuquerque. She is seeking her second full term in the 1st Congressional District. She first won in a special election to fill Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland’s seat after she was appointed Secretary by President Joe Biden. Republican challenger Steve Jones, 78, is a former energy executive from Ruidoso.
While incumbent Democrate Stansbury had more support than her opponent from women and men in District 1, there was a gender gap in support for the two candidates. Stansbury had 56% of support among women voters compared to 31% support for Jones. Of the men surveyed, 49% supported Democrat Stansbury, while 40% supported Republican Jones.
The 1st Congressional race is an example of a trend apparent in other state and national elections. Specifically, there is more support for Democratic candidates among voters with more educational attainment and more support for Republican candidates among voters with less educational attainment.
Among voters with no four-year college degree, Republican Jones had 44% support compared to 43% support for Democrat Stansbury. Stansbury had 63% support among voters with a four-year college or graduate degree, while Jones had 27% support.
Journal pollster Sanderoff said this about the race between the two:
“[Jones will] get the bulk of the Republican vote. … But can he pick up crossover Democrats? Can he pick up a lot of independents? Has Melanie Stansbury been doing a good job at getting better known in Rio Rancho?”
3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL
The 3rd Congressional District is very large and geographically diverse. It reaches across northern New Mexico and down into the eastern part of the state. It has a high concentration of Native American voters and includes the bulk of the Navajo Nation in New Mexico, and many of the pueblos.
The 3rd Congressional District is still considered by many and the Northern District and after the 2021 redistricting it includes Farmington, Aztec and Bloomfield which are conservative Republican leaning areas in the Four Corners area. Conservative communities in eastern New Mexico, including part of Hobbs and the bulk of Roswell, are also part of the district, but are likely not enough to offset higher-population liberal areas like Taos and Santa Fe.
In the 3rd Congressional District race, incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández, 65, is a former Santa Fe lawyer running for her third term in office. Republican challenger Sharon Clahchischilliage is a former state legislator from Shiprock. Republican Clahchischilliage, declines to give her age , will likely do better in northwestern New Mexico than Leger Fernández’s previous opponent, Alexis Martinez Johnson, because she has name recognition in the area and is Native American.
There has only been one Republican who has ever won the 3rd Congressional District since its creation after the 1980 census. Former US Representative Bill Redmond was elected to finish Bill Richardson’s term after Richardson became the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in 1997. Richardson was the first person elected to the seat.
Native American and Hispanic voters in north-central New Mexico tend to be very loyal to the Democratic Party. Journal Politcal pollster Sanderoff said this:
“Generally speaking, Native Americans are very concerned about federal issues as well as state because a lot of the trust lands and a lot of their interactions are with federal government agencies. … “So they pay very close attention to what goes on with the president and in the federal bureaucracy.”
Women voters seem more enthusiastic than male voters about Democrate Leger Fernández. Republican Clahchischilliage had a similar level of support between both men and women.
Incumbent Democrat Leger Fernández had 48% support among men and 57% support among women. Republican Clahchischilliage had 35% support among men and 34% support among women. More men, 14%, were undecided while 9% of women were undecided.
2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL RESULTS RECALLED
In 2021, Congressional District 2 was redrawn. Redistricting broke up the conservative stronghold of Eddy, Lea and Chaves counties. The new boundary lines withstood a GOP court challenge. The congressional district is now more geographically diverse. It encompasses most of southern New Mexico, including parts of the oil patch in Lea and Eddy counties and all of Las Cruces, then reaching north all the way into Albuquerque’s South Valley and West Side.
According to the Journal Poll, Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez leads by 4% points with support from 49% of likely voters surveyed while Republican challenger Yvette Herrell is close behind with 45% of voter support. The lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% points. The poll found 5% of voters surveyed were undecided.
The Journal poll found that Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.
A former Las Cruces city councilor, Democrat Gabe Vasquez won his seat in Congress by approximately 1,300 votes in 2022, unseating Yvette Herrell, a former state legislator from Alamogordo. Two years later, Herrell is trying to reclaim it.
Abortion has been the most common theme in campaign ads. Vasquez has repeatedly hammered Herrell over her record on abortion in campaign ads and at rallies. In response, Herrell released a television ad to clarify her stance on abortion.
The Vasquez-Harrell race is the most expensive of the three U.S. House races in New Mexico. Herrell has raised $3.7 million and has $1.1 million cash on hand, while Vasquez has raised $6.1 million and has $1.8 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Both campaigns have attracted major support of congressional leaders. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy helped Herrell launch her campaign last year. Speaker Mike Johnson went to Las Cruces for Herrell in August and is scheduled to visit Carlsbad for a Herrell campaign event on October 23. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came to Albuquerque in early October at Vasquez’s invitation, where he attended events to promote all three Democratic congressional representatives in their reelection campaigns.
It is being reported that former President Donald Trump may visit New Mexico the last week of the campaign in support of Yvette Herrell.
In the final Journal poll, party affiliation was the biggest predictor of candidate preference. While Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.
However, more independent or decline to state voters supported Vasquez as well. He had 51% of support among those voters, while Herrell had 32%.
Unlike the Republican and Democratic voters surveyed, the independent voters had more people still on the fence, with 15% of independent voters undecided.
In a pattern similar to that found in other New Mexico and national races, the Democrat Gabe Vasquez had more support among voters with higher educational.
Among voters with some college or with a high school diploma or less education, the race is nearly deadlocked. But Vasquez has a clear lead among voters with a four-year college degree or graduate degree. Herrell has a 3-point lead among voters with a high school diploma or less education, with 50% of support among this group. Vasquez has a 29-point lead among voters with a graduate degree with 64% support.
In the 2022 Journal polling during the pair’s first matchup, Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle, according to the new poll. Vasquez support dropped to 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.
The link to the quoted and relied upon October 20 Albuquerque Journal article with photos, graphs and charts is here:
UNITED STATES SENATE POLL RESULTS RECALLED
On October 22, the Albuquerque Journal published its poll in the United States Senate race between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and his Republican challenger Nella Domenici.
According to the poll, Heinrich received the backing of 51% of voters surveyed while 40% said they would vote for Republican Domenici, 7% were undecided and 1% said they would not vote for either of the two. The 11-point lead in the poll for Heinrich is slightly smaller than the poll conducted last month which showed him up 50% to 38% over Domenici.’
The link to the Albuquerque Journal poll with candidate photos and graphs is here:
PRESIDENTIAL POLL RESULTS RECALLED
Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained her advantage over Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race in New Mexico securing 50% of registered, likely voters surveyed in the poll while 41% said they were voting for Trump. The previous Journal poll conducted last month found Harris with a lead over Trump by 10%. The previous poll featured 7% of voters who said they had not yet decided who they would vote for in the November 5 general election.
The number of undecided voters dropped to 4% in the new poll. An additional 3% of voters surveyed said they would still vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who dropped out of the race in August and endorsed Trump but is still on New Mexico’s ballot.
Four years ago, President Joe Biden defeated then-incumbent Trump in New Mexico by 11% points or roughly 100,000 votes. Neither Trump nor Harris has held a campaign stop in the state in the run-up to Election Day.
In the new Journal poll, Harris’ advantage over Trump in New Mexico was largely driven by strong support among female voters and those with a college or graduate degree. While male voters were largely split between the two leading presidential candidates, women voters surveyed were far more likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris than former President Donald Trump.
Harris has made reproductive rights a key issue in her campaign following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Trump for his part has criticized Biden and Harris for their handling of the U.S. economy and border security and Trump has seen an increase in popularity among Hispanic voters. The new Journal poll found 41% of Hispanic voters surveyed expressed support for Trump.
That support level among Hispanic voters was higher than it was in the previous poll, and above what most Republican candidates have received in recent New Mexico statewide elections.
The link to the quoted and relied upon October 20 Albuquerque Journal article with photos, graphs and charts is here:
POLL METHODOLOGY
“The Journal poll is based on a random sample of 360 voters in the 1st Congressional District and a random sample of 344 voters in the 3rd Congressional District who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by gender, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 18, excluding the late afternoon of Oct. 14 (due to the U.S. Senate debate). The voter sample in the 1st Congressional District poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. The voter sample in the 3rd Congressional District has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (90%) and landlines (10%) of likely general election voters were used in the 1st Congressional District. Both cellphone numbers (89%) and landlines (11%) of likely general election voters were also used in the 3rd Congressional District.”
The link to the Albuquerque Journal poll report with graphs and photographs is here:
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
New Mexico has long lost its status as a swing state in Presidential elections. Gone are the days for Presidential candidates to visit the state to secure its 5 electoral college votes. On a national level, national polls indicate that it is a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump.
Both the United States Senate and the House of Representative have the slimmest majorities for control, with the House controlled by the Republicans and the Senate controlled by the Democrats.
The United States House total membership 435 Representatives with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 0 Independents and 3 Vacancies. All 435 house seats are up for re-election and given the closeness of the Presidential race, its uncertain who will control the United States House of Representatives.
The U.S. Senate is currently controlled by Democrats by just 2 votes and has 51 Democrats, including three independents, and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024, including a special election in Nebraska, of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control of the Senate with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. In other words, the US Senate race between Martin Heinrich and Nella Domenici will no doubt play a major roll as to which party will control the United States Senate.
National politcal observers are predicting that the United States House of Representatives will “flip” giving control of the House to the Democrats and the the United States Senate will “flip” giving control to the Republicans. If both congressional chambers do in fact “flip” this will mean that whoever is elected President will be dealing with a divided congress and we will have at least another two years of acrimony and a do nothing congress.
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