During the last few weeks of the presidential election, the Trump campaign began to run ads proclaiming the economy was so much better during Trumps 4 years as President than Biden’s 4 years as President. Republican MAGA Trump supporters have taken to social media, especially FACEBOOK, posting all sorts of charts and statistics comparing the cost of goods and services, such as grocery items and gas, when Trump was President and the past 4 years under President Joe Biden. The cost of goods comparisons are offered as proof of how bad the economy has been under President Joe Biden and proof that the economy was so much better under President Donald Trump.
Trumps end-of-campaign arguments to voters choosing between him and Democrat Kamala Harris have focused on the old standby in U.S. politics that was first used by Ronald Reagan when he ran against Jimmy Carter asking voters “whether they are better off now than they were four years ago?” Truth is, Trump is again lying about how great the economy was under his presidency relying solely on increases in consumer prices, such as groceries and gas, and ignoring all the other areas of the economy.
The national news outlet Reuters on October 30, did a succinct comparison of the Trump Economy versus the Biden economy. Following is an edited version with added commentary and analysis:
PANDEMIC EFFECTS
“Trump asks for comparisons of economic conditions now under Biden versus 4 years ago when he was President. The truth is that the country was in the thick of a pandemic then, which resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of people not only here in the United States but worldwide, [something Trump never mentions as his Administration floundered to respond to the crisis and as he denied the seriousness of the pandemic.]
In 2020, the last year of Trump’s presidency, U.S. life expectancy fell by 1.8 years because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The National Center for Health Statistics review of the year reveals more than 350,000 people died from the virus, which made it the third-leading cause of death.”
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
“In 2020 under Trump, the U.S. economy experienced one of its worst-ever quarters, when Gross Domestic Product plunged at a 28% annual rate from April through June. Despite a startling rebound in the three months that followed, largely the result of federal deficit spending on benefits approved by both parties to keep households afloat through the health crisis, the U.S. economy was smaller in the final full quarter of Trump’s term, the fourth quarter of 2020, than it was at the end of 2019.
Data just released on October 20, 2024 on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy continues to grow above trend and close to the 3% rate Trump in his first term set as a barometer of success. After adjusting for inflation the economy overall is 11.5% larger now than it was at the end of 2019, when output under Trump reached its peak. Growth rates were comparable: From the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of this year, inflation-adjusted output rose 2.66%; in the comparable pre-COVID quarters, comparing the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2018, the economy expanded 2.8%.”
INFLATTION
“For many Americans, the outbreak of inflation from 2021 through last year was something they had never experienced. At its peak prices were rising faster than at any point since the 1980s, an era when economic malaise undercut the reelection campaign of Democratic President Jimmy Carter [hence the Reagan mantra “are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?]
High prices have been a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign, and one which Harris has had trouble rebutting even as inflation itself has declined. The fact that “disinflation” has occurred without the usual blow to economic output and employment is seen by policymakers as a historic victory, but seems to have registered only weakly, if at all, with households.”
INCOMES
“A major political point that has registered weakly among U.S. consumers is that incomes on the whole have kept pace with all that inflation. Economic surveys have consistently found that this doesn’t really matter when it comes to attitudes about the economy. High prices are high prices, and if food costs 10% more consumers don’t really care if their wages went up enough to cover it and then some.
Nor do averages capture every household’s experience. Still, while the bumps along the way were dramatic as federal spending boosted incomes for a while then rising prices cut into purchasing power, inflation-adjusted income per person was about 10% higher as of the third quarter of this year than it was in the third quarter of 2019.”
UNEMPLOYMENT
“Perhaps no economic statistic shows the U.S. success in skirting the worst economic impacts from the pandemic more than the unemployment rate. Federal Reserve officials have noted that the labor market was strong under Trump before the pandemic. It snapped back afterwards under Biden as well. Ignoring the sharp up and downs of the pandemic years, the unemployment rate was slightly lower on average from 2022 through this year than it was from 2017 through 2019.
The US economy added 254,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. That’s a huge boost for a labor market that has shown signs of weakness. Economists had projected 140,000 jobs were added in September and that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The jobs report has moved back into the spotlight now that the Federal Reserve has all but declared victory on inflation and is focused on keeping the labor market healthy.”
WEALTH
“Not every American invests in the stock market and not everyone owns a home. But for those that do the post-COVID years under Biden have added steadily to household net worth.”
THE MISERY INDEX
“Combining the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation into a thumbnail description of economic trouble has been used by politicians as a way to pummel the opposition, particularly during times of high inflation. With the decline in inflation, it is back to roughly where it was during much of Trump’s pre-COVID time in office.”
The link to the quoted news source with charts and graphs is here:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/
COMPARING TRUMP’S ECONOMY TO BIDEN’S ECONOMY IN 17 MAJOR INDICATORS
According to a Washington Post research article comparing Trumps economy versus Bidens economy, Biden has delivered an impressive recovery. Biden was given the advantage over Trump in 11 categories, and Trump was given the advantage in 5, and they tied in 1. Below is the full unedited article followed by the link to it:
HEADLINE: TRUMPS ECONOMY VS BIDENS ECONOMY
By Washington Post Staff reporters Heather Long and Aden Barton
“It’s the economy, stupid!” is the mantra that’s been uttered every presidential campaign season since James Carville coined it in 1992. What’s unique this year is that both President Biden and former president Donald Trump have clear economic records now, and they each claim to have the superior one — and even, in Trump’s case, the best in history.
The truth is that the U.S. economy has had spectacular moments — and real train wrecks — under both men. Trump inherited a lukewarm economy that he pumped up with massive tax cuts and extra government spending. The result was a hot growth spurt and a lot of new jobs, until the pandemic hit and 23 million people were suddenly out of work.
Biden inherited a nation still living through the dark days of covid-19. He injected a large dose of government spending and investment and spurred a rapid, widespread rebound. The economy grew fast, added more than 15 million jobs and even saw a renaissance in manufacturing and a surge in start-ups. But the pandemic’s hangover effects also included the worst inflation in 40 years and this still smarts.”
[DATA SCORE CARD]
[There are] … many facets of the Trump and Biden economies with the caveat that presidents only have a limited influence over the actual economy which are driven by marker forces. Judging by the data alone, Biden produced better results, but deep psychological impact of inflation has led most voters to say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy.
- INFLATION VERUS WAGES
“During Biden’s presidency, inflation has stung. One of the clearest ways to see this is to compare the rise of prices with that of wages. During Trump’s term, wages for rank-and-file workers rose 15.4 percent — almost twice as much as inflation did. This helped people feel as though they were getting ahead. In contrast, under Biden, wages for rank-and-file workers have barely kept up with the 19 percent jump in prices. What’s more, the supply chain glitches and price surges of 2022 set a lot of workers back. The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon.”
Advantage: Trump
- TOTAL JOBS ADDED
“So far, under Biden, an impressive 15.7 million jobs have been added to the economy. Yes, the president benefited from a pandemic bounce-back. Businesses were going to bring back some workers no matter who was in the White House. But the rehiring was very rapid (helped along by the Biden stimulus), and, now, the economy has 6 million more jobs than it had pre-pandemic. Under Trump, job growth was also strong; 6.7 million jobs were added before the pandemic. But when you factor in the pandemic, Trump’s economy shed millions of jobs”.
Advantage: Biden
- ECONOMIC GROWTH
“The data doesn’t support Trump’s claim that he had the “greatest economy in the history of the world” but he did preside over several years of 2.5 to 3 percent annual growth — well above the norm of about 2 percent. Of course, the pandemic recession hit during Trump’s final year in office, pummeling his record. Growth under Biden has been strong — surging to nearly 6 percent in 2021, 1.9 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023. Indeed, the U.S. economy has been the envy of the world for its robust post-pandemic surge, as Biden likes to remind people.”
Advantage: Biden, slightly
- HOME BUYING
“The American Dream is to own a home. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64 percent when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained around 66 percent. The influencing factor here has been mortgage rates (which presidents don’t control). Under Trump and early in Biden’s presidency, mortgage rates were low, and many Americans took advantage of them to buy homes. In 2022 and 2023, though, mortgage rates jumped as the Federal Reserve battled inflation by raising interest rates. At the same time, in many parts of the country, home prices were also rising rapidly. As a result, 2023 became the most unaffordable year to buy a home since the early 1980s. Younger Americans are especially concerned that they will never be able to afford one.”
Advantage: Trump
- JOBS
“The fruits of economic growth are not distributed equally around the country. To assess the geographic winners and losers during each presidency, we compared county unemployment for 2019 (a strong Trump year) with 2023 (a strong Biden year). The results are interesting: More counties overall did better under Biden, but counties in certain swing states, especially Michigan and Nevada, did better under Trump.
Ironically, liberal California had a stronger labor market under Trump, while a host of Republican Southern states are doing better under Biden. It’s not entirely clear why this is, but states’ idiosyncrasies probably play a role. In California, the tech sector has atrophied recently, and, in Texas, more workers joining the labor force have pushed up the unemployment rate.
Both Trump and Biden favor place-based industrial policies — Republican tariffs, for instance, and Democratic subsidies for semiconductors and green energy. And some counties and states benefit more from these policies than others.”
Advantage: Biden
- AFRICAN AMERICAN WORKERS
“Both Trump and Biden presided over tight labor markets, which gave all workers more bargaining power. This helped narrow long-standing gender and racial gaps in the workforce. Female and Black workers saw strong employment gains under Trump, until the pandemic set working women back. Biden has tried to create employment opportunities for groups normally left behind. In April of last year, the Black unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 4.8 percent. And for the first time ever, in March of last year, the share of Black Americans who are employed exceeded the share of White Americans who are employed. Women have bounced back from the pandemic faster than men, partly because new work-from-home arrangements permit more flexible schedules.”
Advantage: Biden, slightly
- U.S. MANUFACTURING
“Biden doesn’t get enough credit for boosting U.S. manufacturing. The huge amounts of federal money he has devoted to it have made a difference. Factory construction in the United States has jumped. Semiconductor companies are spending billions building factories in Arizona, Ohio, Upstate New York and Texas. Trump talked up manufacturing, but he had no noticeable effect on factory building. Indeed, the Foxconn factory he promised for Wisconsin never materialized.”
Advantage: Biden
- JOB CREATION BY INDUSTRY
“Job growth was widespread under Trump, and it has been under Biden, as well. When the data is compared side-by-side, it shows that many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden (762,000 more). Manufacturing jobs are now at their highest level since the Great Recession. White-collar, health-care and government jobs have also surged in recent years. Construction was strong under both presidencies.”
Advantage: Biden
- HOME PRICES
“Home values have been rising rapidly in recent years. When Trump took office, the median home sale price was about $320,000. By the end of his term, it had risen to about $350,000. At the start of 2024, it was about $420,000. This has been great news for the two-thirds of Americans who already own their homes. But it’s made younger Americans fear that they might never be able to afford to buy a home. Most of this increase has been caused by a supply shortage in the United States.”
Advantage: Biden
10. AMERICAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP
“Since the pandemic hit in 2020, new business creation in the United States has surged to its highest levels in decades. It started when people were stuck at home, out of work with little to do. But as the economy has rebounded, the boom has continued. Trump and Biden were both generous with government aid during the pandemic. But this trend appears to be mostly part of a broader reassessment of work (and life) that’s happened since the pandemic.”
Advantage: Biden, slightly
11. ECONOMIC “VIBES”
“Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Many polls and consumer-sentiment indicators, including the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, showed that people were feeling good. Yes, he exaggerates his achievements, but people did seem to notice that the economy improved. Biden has not been as lucky. The 2022 inflation surge really shocked people. And while the rate of inflation has slowed, prices remain high, and this still makes Americans angry. Sentiment has rebounded a little in the past two years, but it remains well below pre-pandemic norms.”
Advantage: Trump
- INEQUALITY
“Real wages, meaning wages after inflation, have barely grown since Biden took office. But wage inequality — the differences in what various groups earn — has fallen dramatically. The reason it has is lower-income workers have received higher raises that kept up more with price increases. As a result, in just a few years, we have seen decades of wage inequality reversed. Nevertheless, many low-wage workers seem to prefer the situation under Trump because they did not have to contend with higher prices.”
Advantage: Unclear
- ANNUAL INCOME
“Americans often talk about how their household budgets are doing, while economists look at annual census data to see whether the typical household income, adjusted for inflation, is rising. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. But then the pandemic hit, followed by inflation. By 2022, the median household income had fallen to $74,580. The Census Bureau hasn’t released any more recent data, but economists at Motio Research estimate that median household income has climbed to about $79,000. This is good for Biden, yet many Americans still feel as though they are basically catching up to where they were before the pandemic.”
Advantage: Likely Trump
- HEALTH INSURANCE
“In 2022, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent (304 million people). Biden pushed to expand coverage by making government subsidies more generous for working-class Americans who buy insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces. This has been a clear change from Trump, who during his term repealed the law requiring people to have health insurance and saw the share of uninsured Americans rise.”
Advantage: Biden
- THE STOCK MARKET
“Trump loved to point to the stock market’s rise as a sign he was doing well in office. The most popular stock index in the United States — the S&P 500 — gained about 70 percent during his first term. But stocks have also done well under Biden; not only has there been no recession, but the economy has continued to beat expectations. The S&P 500 is up about 50 percent so far since 2021 and this summer the major stock indexes keep setting records. (It’s worth noting that stock market performance under President Barack Obama was far better than under either Trump or Biden).”
Advantage: Trump, slightly
- CHILD POVERTY
“Child poverty dipped slightly during the end of Trump’s presidency and then plummeted under Biden’s when the expanded Child Tax Credit and other temporary stimulus measures were adopted. But it returned to pre-pandemic levels when those programs expired. Biden pushed for an extension, but the GOP-controlled Congress wouldn’t budge. The good news here is that we’ve learned what works to reduce child poverty: giving direct cash aid to families with children.”
Advantage: Biden
- THE FEDERAL DEBT
“Trump and Biden alike worsened the federal debt. The pandemic required a lot of emergency spending under both administrations. But many trillions were added outside of the context of covid. Trump added $4.8 trillion in non-covid debt, and Biden chipped in $2.2 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Neither president can claim to have been fiscally responsible.”
Advantage: Biden, slightly
Links to quoted and relied upon news sources are here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-september-10-04-24/index.html
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY
The final score card analysis on comparing the Biden Economy years to the Trump Economy years is BIDEN 11, TRUMP 5, one measure defined as a unclear.
Biden was given the advantage over Trump in the following 11 economy categories:
- Total jobs added. The economy gained more than 15 million jobs under Biden.
- Economic growth. Aside from the pandemic, Biden and Trump both oversaw stellar growth, but Biden is given the advantage.
- Job creation. More jobs were created under Biden.
- African American Workers. African American entrepreneurship increased more under Biden.
- U.S. manufacturing. Factory construction in the United States has jumped under Biden.
- Job creation by industry. Many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden
- Home prices and values increased under Biden.
- American entrepreneurship increased both under Trump and Biden but more under Biden.
- Health Insurance. Under Biden, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent
- Child Poverty. Child poverty plummeted under Biden when the expanded Child Tax Credit was enacted.
- Federal Debt. Both Trump and Biden worsened the federal debt but Trump added $4.8 trillion more than twice what Biden added at $2.2 trillion.
Trump was given the advantage over Biden in the following 5 categories:
- Inflation vs. wages. Wage growth was much higher than inflation under Trump
- Economic vibes. Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Polls and consumer-sentiment indicators showed that people were feeling good about their financial status.
- Home buying. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64% when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained at 66%.
- Inequality: Wage inequality went down under Biden, but low-wage workers have struggled with inflation.
- Annual income. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. Under Biden median household income fell to $74,580.
The category of Inequality was the only category where neither Trump nor Biden were given the advantage.
FINAL COMMENT
Perception in politics is everything and be damned the truth. No U.S. President can do much when it comes to cost of goods sold, such as groceries and gas prices, which are at the mercy and dictated by market forces of supply and demand and corporations desires to increase profits.
All three times that Trump has run for President he has relied upon the “big lie” which is if you repeat a lie over and over again, the public will believe it to be true and perceptions based on lies become the truth. Such is the case with Trump and his MAGA movement.
Trump’s has repeatedly claimed throughout his campaign that the economy was the best in its history under his leadership. Sadly, when it comes to the United States economy, the ploy and use of the big lie has worked with the general public given how close the election is.