Following are the New Mexico 2024 General Election results in Federal races, in Bernalillo County,  the City of Albuquerque and the New Mexico House and Senate  as compiled and reported by the New Mexico Secretary of State and New Mexico news agencies:

United States President

Nationally, Former Republican President Donald Trump defeated Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris both in the public vote and the electoral college vote. Trump defeated Harris in the public vote with Trump securing 74,532,699 (50.4%) votes to Harris securing 70,856,199 (47.9%).  Trump secured 312 electoral college votes and Harris secured 226 electoral college votes.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-trump-harris-11-06-24/index.html

However, in New Mexico, with 100%  of the precincts reporting, Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump 51.64% (469,975 votes)  to  46.07% (419,248) with other candidates on the ballot getting the difference including Robert Kennedy, Jr.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-presidential-election-results-2024-harris-trump/62707355

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

UNITED STATES SENATE

Incumbent Democrat Senior Senator Martin Heinrich defeated Republican Nella Domenici 54.85% ( 488,375 votes) to 45.15% (401,930) winning a third term as one of New Mexico’s two U.S. Senators. Domenici is daughter of late former U.S. Senator  Pete Domenici, who served 6 terms in the United State Senate. Throughout the campaign, Domenici  struggled to make up ground against Heinrich amid a steady stream of attacks about her stance on abortion.

Heinrich raised more than $12 million for his bid to retain the seat he’s held since 2013. During the run-up to Election Day, he maintained a consistent advantage in recent polls over Domenici, a Republican who pumped more than $2 million of her own money into her campaign in the form of loans.

Heinrich currently chairs the Joint Economic Committee which examines how government can work better for working Americans. During his time in office, he’s primarily sponsored bills focused on public lands and natural resources. When it comes to crime and fentanyl, Sen. Heinrich faced criticism from his Republican opponent Nella Domenici who accused Democratic leadership of allowing the flow of illegal drugs through the border and into New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Senator Heinrich criticized Domenici for being an outsider who can’t relate to the working class. He argued that having a senior leader in the Senate will better serve New Mexicans. “This is a must-win race if we’re going to maintain a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. If we were to lose this race, there’s no question that the Republicans would have control of the Senate.,” said Sen. Heinrich.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/elections/martin-heinrich-projected-to-retain-senate-seat/

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/martin-heinrich-nella-domenici-results/article_4e4189bc-9aee-11ef-827c-2f6a52f696fa.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-senate-election-results-2024/62680977

U.S. House – District 1

Democratic incumbent Melanie Stansbury defeated Republican Steven Jones 56.20% (189,464 votes) to 43.80% (147,687 votes) to retain her seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and serve another two year term. District 1 represents many areas of central New Mexico, including a majority of Albuquerque.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

U.S. House – District 2

With all precincts reporting, Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez defeated Yvette Herrell 51.92% (136,350 votes) to 48.08% (126,252 votes)  to retain his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and serve another two year term. Herrell previously held the seat, but lost to Vasquez in the 2022 election. District 2 encompasses most of southern New Mexico, including Albuquerque’s South Valley.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/gabe-vasquez-and-yvette-herrell-in-rematch-for-new-mexicos-2nd-congressional-seat/

U.S. House – District 3

Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernandez defeated Republican challenger Sharon Clahchischilliage 56.02 (159,058)  to 43.98% (124,854).  A Republican has only been elected to the seat once in the district’s history. That happened 1997 when former Rep. Bill Redmond was elected to finish former Rep. Bill Richardson’s term when he became the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Leger Fernandez has held the seat since 2021.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY

https://www.krqe.com/election-results/

https://www.koat.com/article/new-mexico-us-house-of-representatives-election-results-2024/62725036

BERNALILLO COUNTY COMMISSION

Democrat Frank Baca defeated Republican Mary Kay Ingham in the race for District 2 Bernalillo County Commission. Baca secured 61% (23,191 votes) to Ingham’s 39% (14,839 votes). The pair were vying for the open seat left by Steven Michael Quezada, who had run up against his term limit as a commissioner.

District 3 Incumbent Democrat County Commissioner Adriann Barboa defeated Republican Rene Coronado. Barboa secured 71% (33,407 votes) to Coronado’s 29% (13,890)

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/Default.aspx?

https://www.abqjournal.com/news/democrats-win-contested-races-for-bernalillo-county-commission-seats/article_2fee9c44-9bc9-11ef-aa4b-b3f976f55d26.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

BERNALILLO COUNTY CLERK AND TREASURER

A Bernalillo County Deputy Clerk and a former County Treasurer and State Treasurer are the winners in the Bernalillo Country Clerk and Treasurer contests.

According to the New Mexico Secretary of State’s election website, Democrat Michelle Kavanaugh, 44, defeated  Republican Clayton Pryor, 65, in the county clerk’s race securing  60% (174,441 votes) to 40% (115,681 votes. Kavanaugh succeeds current County Clerk Linda Stover who is term imited and she was brought on as a Deputy Clerk in 2020 after several years working for former Democratic Senator Tom Udall.

In the County Treasurer contest, Democrat Tim Eichenberg, 72, defeated  Republican business owner Lelan Morrison, 67. Eichenberg secured 60% (173,441 votes) to Morrisons 40% (115,700 votes). Eichenberg is a former two term Bernalillo Coutny Treasurer, two term New Mexico Treasurere and a former State Senator.  Eichenberg will succeed Treasuer Nancy Bearce, who is term limited and finishing her second consecutive four-year term.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/bernalillo-county-clerk-treasurer-election-results/article_cb72199c-9aee-11ef-a90f-432b00198477.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

NEW MEXICO HOUSE AND SENATE RACES

All 112 seats in Legislature are on this year’s general election ballot. Members of the state Senate stand for election every four years while House districts are on the ballot every two years. Democrats hold majority control in both chambers. There are 45 Democrats and 25 Republicans in the New Mexico House of Representatives. Currently, there are 27 Democrats and 15 Republicans in the New Mexico Senate. The 2025 New Mexico legislature convenes on January 21, 2025 and ends on March 22, 2025.

On November 6, New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan posted the following results on the most contested races:

“Republicans appeared to pick up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a majority of 44 to 26. In the Senate the Dems appeared to pick up one seat there, upping their majority to 28-14.

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ’s NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.”

The link to the quoted news source is here:

November 6 blog post “New Mexico Poltics with Joe Monahan”  https://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

The link to review the results of contested House and Senate legislative races is here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=LGX&map=CTY

ALBUQUERQUE CITY CHARTER AMENDMENTS

Two amendments to the city’s charter will shift some power to the Albuquerque City Council pasted by high margins.  The City Council voted in June to put both the measures on the ballot.

One of the charter amendments will allow the City Council to fire the police and fire chief without cause on a 7-2 council vote. The mayor also would have the ability to terminate the chiefs without cause, a power Mayor Keller  contests he doesn’t currently have. The measure passed with 62% (131,607) voting YES and 38% (79,706) voting NO.

The second charter amendment, a “separation of powers”  amendment will change the way the mayor’s administration and the City Council settle debates. It forces both the mayor and City Council to appoint someone to the Intragovernmental Conference Committee,  which exists to settle disputes between the council and mayor, within 60 days of a vacancy. The charter amendment passed 62% (126,006) voting YES and  38% (78,409) voting NO.

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=MUX&map=CTY

BOND PACKAGE

Six bond questions with a $40 million price tag were approved by voters. Albuquerque voters along with an additional 100,000 voters who reside in  Bernalillo County voted to approve the bond package.

The bond package put forth by Bernalillo County commissioners included six questions for over $40 million in spending and they are:

• $2.5 million for public libraries.
• $8.8 million for public safety facilities, the county’s fleet and buildings.
• $11.7 million for parks and recreation.
• $10.6 million for transportation projects.
• $5.1 million for storm drainage and utility projects.
• $1.7 million for public housing.

Voters approved all of them overwhelmingly, according to unofficial results from the county’s website.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/albuquerque-charter-amendments/article_29714892-9aef-11ef-a6c3-2f843d9cd5f9.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

TWO MILL LEVY’S GET VOTER APPROVAL

Bernalillo County voters approved extending for another eight years the current tax levy to support the operation and maintenance of University of New Mexico Hospital, according to unofficial results Tuesday.

The University of New Mexico Hospital receives approximately 10% of its budget from Bernalillo County property taxes. The levy question is placed on the ballot every eight years as part of the creation in 1952 of what is today UNM Hospital.

The dollar amount the mill levy provides can change year to year based on the value of property in the county, but in recent years the mill levy has provided the hospital $120 million annually, according to hospital CEO Kate Becker.

Voters also appeared to establish a tax levy for the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation District, which covers Bernalillo County and part of Sandoval County. The ballot question asked voters to permit the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation District Board of Supervisors to establish a levy of up to 0.25 mills for projects that will include:

• Protecting drinking water sources and the health of rivers and streams by improving storm water and floodplain management;
• Reducing the risk of wildfire by improving the health of our forests, including the Sandia and Manzano forests; and
• Restoring wildlife habitat, including along the Rio Grande. The levy increase will generate over $6 million annually to fund conservation projects.

Links to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://electionresults.sos.nm.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CTYSPEC&map=CTY&cty=02%20&name=Bernalillo

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/mill-levy-for-unm-hospital-gets-voter-approval/article_a440687e-9bd4-11ef-a3b1-f30b1d913302.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Thank you to all the voters who took their civic  responsibility serious and voted.  Congratulations and best wishes to all the victors. Now the hard part begins in making decisions that are in the best interest of the public.

Approximately 48.2% of New Mexico registered voters have already cast a ballot  in the 2025 general election. According to the Secretary of State’s office, 663,874 votes were cast via early or absentee voting before early voting ended on Saturday. The 663,874 figure is lower than four years ago when roughly 785,000 votes were cast early in 2020. In 2020, 928,230 votes, representing 68.7% of all registered voters, were cast in the 2020 general election. Notwithstanding, a strong Election Day turnout will likely propel the state past 2020 turnout levels.

Saturday, November 2, was the last day of early voting in New Mexico before Tuesday’s November 5 general election.  A record number of New Mexicans had already cast their votes.  Approximately 41% of New Mexicans or 563,000 voters had participated in absentee or early voting, with 47.1% registered as Democrat, 36.7% registered as Republican and 15% registered as independent or decline to state.

Bernalillo County posted one of the highest early vote turnout rates in New Mexico this year, as more than 60% of registered Democrats and Republicans alike in the state’s most populous county voted before Election Day.  Other counties with high turnout rates so far include Santa Fe, Valencia, Sandoval and Los Alamos, where 68% of registered Democrats have already voted.

Republicans voted at a slightly higher rate than Democrats statewide, as about 55.9% of registered Republicans cast their votes before Election Day compared to roughly 52.1% of Democrats. Democrats still cast about 64,000 more votes than Republicans statewide, since Democrats entered this year’s general election with a significant voter registration advantage.

According to Secretary of State’s Office, of the state’s more than 1.3 million registered voters, about 42.9% are Democrats and 31.6% are Republicans. The remaining voters either declined to state a party affiliation, are registered Libertarians or are affiliated with a minor political party.

Brian Sanderoff, President of Research & Polling Inc.,  which does polling for the Albuquerque Journal, had this to say about the early voting trends:

“Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ve seen thus far is that Republicans are voting at a higher rate than Democrats, showing that 47.5% of the Republicans have already voted, compared to 45% of the Democrats and 26% of the independents. … So Republicans are voting at a higher rate than Democrats who have voted thus far. … Among the people who vote, more will have voted before Election Day than on Election Day. … People in New Mexico have become very accustomed to voting before Election Day.”

Counties with legislative battles are more likely to vote in higher numbers.  Sanderoff said this:

“Sometimes legislative battles can drive competition.  The legislators are at ground zero, they’re knocking on the doors there, and they can really play a much more efficient role in driving turnout.”

Voters who still have an absentee ballot can drop it off at any polling location.  The ballot must be delivered by 7 p.m. on Election Day. You can track the status of your absentee application or ballot through the Secretary of State’s Ballot Scout module at sos.nm.gov/trackmyballot.

The link to relied upon or quoted news sources are here:

https://www.sos.nm.gov/sos-static/election-day-november-5-2024.html

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/new-mexico-readies-for-election-day-with-more-than-663-000-votes-already-cast/article_3343d236-9adb-11ef-880f-bb7daed10aab.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/early-voting-ends-saturday-heres-what-you-need-to-know/article_7fd7c6a0-9867-11ef-80d7-57b2b77a5d37.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics/us-elections-united-states/early-voting-wraps-up-in-new-mexico/

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The political day of reckoning is finally here. The most contentious and closest race for United States President will finally come to an end. With any luck, we will no longer have to endure the crude, unhinged campaign behavior, and repeated nasty lies of a politcal dotard that has a cult following.

New Mexicans can take great comfort that as of today, November 5, gone will be all the nasty, negative political ads, especially those repeatedly aired by Democrat Gabe Vasquez and  Republican Yvette Herrell attacking each other. We will finally stop having to see and hear Herrell say with a smirk on her face “I wish we could have ended all abortions in this state”.  With any luck we will not be hearing from her ever again.

On the November 5 general election ballot for voter approval will be two proposed City Charter Amendments placed on the ballot by the Albuquerque City Council back in June.

The first charter amendment would give the City Council the power to remove the fire chief and police chief, without cause, by a 7-2 vote and would require an employment contract for both positions.  The current charter requires no employment contracts and requires cause to remove the police and fire chiefs with a 6 vote majority and the positions are considered at will employees serving at the pleasure of the Mayor but requiring majority approval of the city council.

The second charter amendment creates a process to fill vacancies on a city committee intended to resolve separation of powers issues between the Mayor and City Council. The Intragovernmental Conference Committee is made of three members: the appointee from the mayor’s office, an appointee from City Council and a chairperson, who is selected by the council and mayor’s appointees.  The charter amendment forces the mayor to appoint a member to the Intragovernmental Conference Committee within 60 days of any vacancy. There is no such requirement imposed on the City Council.  As it stands, both the Mayor and City Council have total discretion as to when and who to appoint.

A third charter amendment was also passed by the City Council in June to be placed on the November 5 ballot, but it was vetoed by Mayor Tim Keller and it will not be on the ballot. The third charter amendment would have eliminated all run off elections between the two top vote getters for Mayor and City Council.  Whoever secured the most votes of all the candidates running would have won the election out right. If there is a tie between the two top vote getters, then and only then would there be a runoff.

Links to relied upon and quoted news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/election/checks-and-balances-heres-how-abq-voters-can-increase-city-councils-power/article_84951716-8a4c-11ef-aef8-573645542d7f.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/checks-balances-heres-abq-voters-140100151.html

https://www.abqjournal.com/news/voters-will-have-chance-to-decide-on-several-charter-amendments-after-city-council-vote/article_e5cf80a8-2d21-11ef-b343-7b977b5b2b9c.html#tncms-source=home-featured-7-block

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-city-council-votes-on-amendments-to-city-charter/

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/albuquerque-city-council-passes-proposal-for-city-charter-changes/

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

Simply put, the two Charter amendments placed on the November 5 ballot amount to nothing more than a power grab by the Albuquerque City Council to dilute the authority of the Mayor and gain more control over the Mayor’s appointees of Chief of Police and the Chief of the Albuquerque Fire and Rescue Department. City Councilors are motivated by their desire to remove APD Chief Harold Medina.  As it stands now, both Chiefs are appointed by the Mayor subject to approval of the City council, both are at will employees who serve at the pleasure of the Mayor and can be terminated by the Mayor at any time and without cause.

Harold Medina was appointed chief of Albuquerque Police Department by Keller in 2021. During the last year, city councilor’s have been highly critical of APD Chief Harold Medina with more than a few expressing that the Mayor remove him as Chief.  In 2024 Chief Medina generated a lot of headlines.  In February, Medina crashed a department truck into a vintage Mustang while fleeing gunfire near the International District and was reprimanded by the Internal Affairs Division for his handling of the crash, notably for not turning on his lapel camera and violating APD policies and procedures. APD is also under an ongoing investigation by the FBI for alleged corruption related to APD officers’ dismissing DWIs for briberies.

The relations between Mayor Tim Keller and the more conservative majority city council have deteriorated because of the sure frustration the conservatives on the council have experienced in not being able to stop the Keller progressive agenda with overriding vetoes. The conservative leaning city council has shown significant resistance to Mayor Keller’s progressive agenda as going too far. 

A few city councilors have attempted to force the termination or resignation of Chief Medina. Councilor and former APD officer Dan Champine said he believes the frequency at which Medina has been in the news drove the proposed charter amendment giving the Council more power. Champine said this:

“If you had a police chief that was doing his job and was showing improvement within the department and with the public and with crime and safety within our city, I don’t think it would have raised this question or shown this issue.”

Repeatedly the conservative city council has attempted to repeal ordinances and resolutions enacted by the previous more progressive city council and to limit the authority of Mayor Tim Keller.  Prime examples include the following:

1. A resolution to repeal or limit mayoral authority during a public health emergency.
2. A resolution baring the city from mandating covid-19 vaccines for the municipal government workforce.
3. Resolution directing the city administration to consider and “push to renegotiate the terms of the federal court approved settlement agreement.”
4. Repeal of a quarter cent tax increase in gross receipts tax enacted a few years ago.
5. Repealing or attempting to amend the City’s “Immigrant Friendly” policy calling it a “Sanctuary City” policy and requiring  APD to assist and cooperate with the federal immigration authorities.

The two charter amendments are not the first time that the conservative city council has attempted to reduce the authority of Mayor Tim Keller by City Charter Amendments. The relations between Mayor Tim Keller and the more conservative majority city council deteriorated so significantly that on April 27, 2023 first term City Councilors Democrat Louie Sanchez and Republican Renee Grout announced legislation proposing a City Charter amendment for a public vote that would have made the Mayor of Albuquerque a member of the City Council.  They wanted to transfer all the mayor’s executive and city management duties to a city manager chosen by the city council. According to the proposed legislation, the mayor would have been “recognized as the head of the City government for all ceremonial purposes”.   

The city council is trying to get city voters to change in a very dramatic way how the Mayor appoints at will employees  in order to carry out a personal vendetta against a Mayor and a Chief they do not like and who they perceive are  ineffective and unpopular.

Voters are encouraged to Vote No on both charter amendments.

During the last few weeks of the presidential election, the Trump campaign began to run ads proclaiming the economy was so much better during Trumps 4 years as President than Biden’s 4 years as President.  Republican MAGA Trump supporters have taken to social media, especially FACEBOOK, posting all sorts of charts and statistics comparing the cost of goods and services, such as grocery items and gas,  when Trump was President and the past 4 years under President Joe Biden. The cost  of goods comparisons are offered as proof of how bad the economy has been under President Joe Biden and proof that the economy was so much better under President Donald Trump.

Trumps end-of-campaign arguments to voters choosing between him and Democrat Kamala Harris have focused on the old standby in U.S. politics that was first used by Ronald Reagan when he ran against Jimmy Carter asking voters “whether they are better off now than they were four years ago?” Truth is, Trump is again lying about how great the economy was under his presidency relying solely on increases in consumer prices, such as groceries and gas, and ignoring all the other areas of the economy.

The national news outlet Reuters on October 30, did a succinct comparison of the Trump Economy versus the Biden economy. Following is an edited version with added commentary and analysis:

PANDEMIC EFFECTS

“Trump asks for comparisons of economic conditions now under Biden versus 4 years ago when he was President. The truth is that the country was in the thick of a pandemic then, which resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of people not only here in the United States but worldwide, [something Trump never mentions as his Administration floundered to respond to the crisis and as he denied the seriousness of the pandemic.]

In 2020, the last year of Trump’s presidency, U.S. life expectancy fell by 1.8 years because of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The National Center for Health Statistics review of the year reveals more than 350,000 people died from the virus, which made it the third-leading cause of death.”

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

“In 2020 under Trump, the U.S. economy experienced one of its worst-ever quarters, when Gross Domestic Product plunged at a 28% annual rate from April through June. Despite a startling rebound in the three months that followed, largely the result of federal deficit spending on benefits approved by both parties to keep households afloat through the health crisis, the U.S. economy was smaller in the final full quarter of Trump’s term,  the fourth quarter of 2020,  than it was at the end of 2019.

Data just released on October 20, 2024 on Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  showed the economy continues to grow above trend and close to the 3% rate Trump in his first term set as a barometer of success. After adjusting for inflation the economy overall is 11.5% larger now than it was at the end of 2019, when output under Trump reached its peak. Growth rates were comparable: From the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of this year, inflation-adjusted output rose 2.66%; in the comparable pre-COVID quarters, comparing the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2018, the economy expanded 2.8%.”

INFLATTION

“For many Americans, the outbreak of inflation from 2021 through last year was something they had never experienced. At its peak prices were rising faster than at any point since the 1980s, an era when economic malaise undercut the reelection campaign of Democratic President Jimmy Carter [hence the Reagan mantra “are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?]

High prices have been a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign, and one which Harris has had trouble rebutting even as inflation itself has declined. The fact that “disinflation” has occurred without the usual blow to economic output and employment is seen by policymakers as a historic victory, but seems to have registered only weakly, if at all, with households.”

INCOMES

“A major political point that has registered weakly among U.S. consumers is that incomes on the whole have kept pace with all that inflation. Economic surveys have consistently found that this doesn’t really matter when it comes to attitudes about the economy. High prices are high prices, and if food costs 10% more consumers don’t really care if their wages went up enough to cover it and then some.

Nor do averages capture every household’s experience. Still, while the bumps along the way were dramatic as federal spending boosted incomes for a while then rising prices cut into purchasing power, inflation-adjusted income per person was about 10% higher as of the third quarter of this year than it was in the third quarter of 2019.”

UNEMPLOYMENT

“Perhaps no economic statistic shows the U.S. success in skirting the worst economic impacts from the pandemic more than the unemployment rate. Federal Reserve officials have noted that  the labor market was strong under Trump before the pandemic. It snapped back afterwards under Biden as well.  Ignoring the sharp up and downs of the pandemic years, the unemployment rate was slightly lower on average from 2022 through this year than it was from 2017 through 2019.

The US economy added 254,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. That’s a huge boost for a labor market that has shown signs of weakness. Economists had projected 140,000 jobs were added in September and that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The jobs report has moved back into the spotlight now that the Federal Reserve has all but declared victory on inflation and is focused on keeping the labor market healthy.”

WEALTH

“Not every American invests in the stock market and not everyone owns a home. But for those that do the post-COVID years under Biden have added steadily to household net worth.”

THE MISERY INDEX

“Combining the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation into a thumbnail description of economic trouble has been used by politicians as a way to pummel the opposition, particularly during times of high inflation. With the decline in inflation, it is back to roughly where it was during much of Trump’s pre-COVID time in office.”

The link to the quoted news source with charts and graphs is here:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/

COMPARING TRUMP’S ECONOMY TO BIDEN’S ECONOMY IN 17 MAJOR INDICATORS

According to a Washington Post research article comparing Trumps economy versus Bidens economy, Biden has delivered an impressive recovery. Biden was given the advantage over Trump in  11 categories, and Trump was given the advantage in 5, and they tied in 1. Below is the full unedited article followed by the link to it:

HEADLINE: TRUMPS ECONOMY VS BIDENS ECONOMY

By Washington Post Staff reporters  Heather Long and Aden Barton

“It’s the economy, stupid!” is the mantra that’s been uttered every presidential campaign season since James Carville coined it in 1992. What’s unique this year is that both President Biden and former president Donald Trump have clear economic records now, and they each claim to have the superior one — and even, in Trump’s case, the best in history.

The truth is that the U.S. economy has had spectacular moments — and real train wrecks — under both men. Trump inherited a lukewarm economy that he pumped up with massive tax cuts and extra government spending. The result was a hot growth spurt and a lot of new jobs, until the pandemic hit and 23 million people were suddenly out of work.

Biden inherited a nation still living through the dark days of covid-19. He injected a large dose of government spending and investment and spurred a rapid, widespread rebound. The economy grew fast, added more than 15 million jobs and even saw a renaissance in manufacturing and a surge in start-ups. But the pandemic’s hangover effects also included the worst inflation in 40 years and this still smarts.”

[DATA  SCORE CARD]

[There are] …  many facets of the Trump and Biden economies with the caveat that presidents only have a limited influence over the actual economy which are driven by marker forces.  Judging by the data alone, Biden produced better results, but deep psychological impact of inflation has led most voters to say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy.

1. INFLATION VERUS WAGES

 “During Biden’s presidency, inflation has stung. One of the clearest ways to see this is to compare the rise of prices with that of wages. During Trump’s term, wages for rank-and-file workers rose 15.4 percent — almost twice as much as inflation did. This helped people feel as though they were getting ahead. In contrast, under Biden, wages for rank-and-file workers have barely kept up with the 19 percent jump in prices. What’s more, the supply chain glitches and price surges of 2022 set a lot of workers back. The good news for Biden is that, for the past year, wages have been growing faster than overall prices, and this trend is likely to continue. More Americans should start to feel better soon.”

Advantage: Trump

2. TOTAL JOBS ADDED

“So far, under Biden, an impressive 15.7 million jobs have been added to the economy. Yes, the president benefited from a pandemic bounce-back. Businesses were going to bring back some workers no matter who was in the White House. But the rehiring was very rapid (helped along by the Biden stimulus), and, now, the economy has 6 million more jobs than it had pre-pandemic. Under Trump, job growth was also strong; 6.7 million jobs were added before the pandemic. But when you factor in the pandemic, Trump’s economy shed millions of jobs”.

Advantage: Biden

3. ECONOMIC GROWTH 

“The data doesn’t support Trump’s claim that he had the “greatest economy in the history of the world” but he did preside over several years of 2.5 to 3 percent annual growth — well above the norm of about 2 percent. Of course, the pandemic recession hit during Trump’s final year in office, pummeling his record. Growth under Biden has been strong — surging to nearly 6 percent in 2021, 1.9 percent in 2022 and 2.5 percent in 2023. Indeed, the U.S. economy has been the envy of the world for its robust post-pandemic surge, as Biden likes to remind people.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

4. HOME BUYING

 “The American Dream is to own a home. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64 percent when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained around 66 percent. The influencing factor here has been mortgage rates (which presidents don’t control). Under Trump and early in Biden’s presidency, mortgage rates were low, and many Americans took advantage of them to buy homes. In 2022 and 2023, though, mortgage rates jumped as the Federal Reserve battled inflation by raising interest rates. At the same time, in many parts of the country, home prices were also rising rapidly. As a result, 2023 became the most unaffordable year to buy a home since the early 1980s. Younger Americans are especially concerned that they will never be able to afford one.”

Advantage: Trump

5. JOBS

 “The fruits of economic growth are not distributed equally around the country. To assess the geographic winners and losers during each presidency, we compared county unemployment for 2019 (a strong Trump year) with 2023 (a strong Biden year). The results are interesting: More counties overall did better under Biden, but counties in certain swing states, especially Michigan and Nevada, did better under Trump.

 Ironically, liberal California had a stronger labor market under Trump, while a host of Republican Southern states are doing better under Biden. It’s not entirely clear why this is, but states’ idiosyncrasies probably play a role. In California, the tech sector has atrophied recently, and, in Texas, more workers joining the labor force have pushed up the unemployment rate.

 Both Trump and Biden favor place-based industrial policies — Republican tariffs, for instance, and Democratic subsidies for semiconductors and green energy. And some counties and states benefit more from these policies than others.”

Advantage: Biden

6. AFRICAN AMERICAN WORKERS  

“Both Trump and Biden presided over tight labor markets, which gave all workers more bargaining power. This helped narrow long-standing gender and racial gaps in the workforce. Female and Black workers saw strong employment gains under Trump, until the pandemic set working women back. Biden has tried to create employment opportunities for groups normally left behind. In April of last year, the Black unemployment rate reached an all-time low of 4.8 percent. And for the first time ever, in March of last year, the share of Black Americans who are employed exceeded the share of White Americans who are employed. Women have bounced back from the pandemic faster than men, partly because new work-from-home arrangements permit more flexible schedules.”

 Advantage: Biden, slightly

7.  U.S. MANUFACTURING 

 “Biden doesn’t get enough credit for boosting U.S. manufacturing. The huge amounts of federal money he has devoted to it have made a difference. Factory construction in the United States has jumped. Semiconductor companies are spending billions building factories in Arizona, Ohio, Upstate New York and Texas. Trump talked up manufacturing, but he had no noticeable effect on factory building. Indeed, the Foxconn factory he promised for Wisconsin never materialized.”

Advantage: Biden

8.  JOB CREATION BY INDUSTRY

 “Job growth was widespread under Trump, and it has been under Biden, as well. When the data is compared side-by-side, it shows that many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden (762,000 more). Manufacturing jobs are now at their highest level since the Great Recession. White-collar, health-care and government jobs have also surged in recent years. Construction was strong under both presidencies.”

 Advantage: Biden

9. HOME PRICES

 “Home values have been rising rapidly in recent years. When Trump took office, the median home sale price was about $320,000. By the end of his term, it had risen to about $350,000. At the start of 2024, it was about $420,000. This has been great news for the two-thirds of Americans who already own their homes. But it’s made younger Americans fear that they might never be able to afford to buy a home. Most of this increase has been caused by a supply shortage in the United States.”

Advantage: Biden

10.  AMERICAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP 

“Since the pandemic hit in 2020, new business creation in the United States has surged to its highest levels in decades. It started when people were stuck at home, out of work with little to do. But as the economy has rebounded, the boom has continued. Trump and Biden were both generous with government aid during the pandemic. But this trend appears to be mostly part of a broader reassessment of work (and life) that’s happened since the pandemic.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

11.  ECONOMIC “VIBES”

 “Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Many polls and consumer-sentiment indicators, including the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, showed that people were feeling good. Yes, he exaggerates his achievements, but people did seem to notice that the economy improved. Biden has not been as lucky. The 2022 inflation surge really shocked people. And while the rate of inflation has slowed, prices remain high, and this still makes Americans angry. Sentiment has rebounded a little in the past two years, but it remains well below pre-pandemic norms.”

Advantage: Trump

12. INEQUALITY 

“Real wages, meaning wages after inflation, have barely grown since Biden took office. But wage inequality — the differences in what various groups earn — has fallen dramatically. The reason it has is lower-income workers have received higher raises that kept up more with price increases. As a result, in just a few years, we have seen decades of wage inequality reversed. Nevertheless, many low-wage workers seem to prefer the situation under Trump because they did not have to contend with higher prices.”

Advantage: Unclear

13. ANNUAL INCOME 

“Americans often talk about how their household budgets are doing, while economists look at annual census data to see whether the typical household income, adjusted for inflation, is rising. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. But then the pandemic hit, followed by inflation. By 2022, the median household income had fallen to $74,580. The Census Bureau hasn’t released any more recent data, but economists at Motio Research estimate that median household income has climbed to about $79,000. This is good for Biden, yet many Americans still feel as though they are basically catching up to where they were before the pandemic.”

 Advantage: Likely Trump

14. HEALTH INSURANCE 

“In 2022, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent (304 million people). Biden pushed to expand coverage by making government subsidies more generous for working-class Americans who buy insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces. This has been a clear change from Trump, who during his term repealed the law requiring people to have health insurance and saw the share of uninsured Americans rise.”

 Advantage: Biden

15. THE STOCK MARKET

 “Trump loved to point to the stock market’s rise as a sign he was doing well in office. The most popular stock index in the United States — the S&P 500 — gained about 70 percent during his first term. But stocks have also done well under Biden; not only has there been no recession, but the economy has continued to beat expectations. The S&P 500 is up about 50 percent so far since 2021 and this summer the major stock indexes keep setting records. (It’s worth noting that stock market performance under President Barack Obama was far better than under either Trump or Biden).”

 Advantage: Trump, slightly

16. CHILD POVERTY

“Child poverty dipped slightly during the end of Trump’s presidency and then plummeted under Biden’s when the expanded Child Tax Credit and other temporary stimulus measures were adopted. But it returned to pre-pandemic levels when those programs expired. Biden pushed for an extension, but the GOP-controlled Congress wouldn’t budge. The good news here is that we’ve learned what works to reduce child poverty: giving direct cash aid to families with children.”

Advantage: Biden

17. THE FEDERAL DEBT

“Trump and Biden alike worsened the federal debt. The pandemic required a lot of emergency spending under both administrations. But many trillions were added outside of the context of covid. Trump added $4.8 trillion in non-covid debt, and Biden chipped in $2.2 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Neither president can claim to have been fiscally responsible.”

Advantage: Biden, slightly

Links to quoted and relied upon news sources are here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/does-trump-really-want-compare-now-four-years-ago-2024-10-30/

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-september-10-04-24/index.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS  AND COMMENTARY

The final score card analysis on comparing the Biden Economy years to the Trump Economy years is BIDEN 11, TRUMP  5, one measure defined as a unclear.

Biden was given the advantage over Trump in the following 11 economy categories:

1. Total jobs added. The economy gained more than 15 million jobs under Biden.
2. Economic growth.  Aside from the pandemic, Biden and Trump both oversaw stellar growth, but Biden is given the advantage.
3. Job creation. More jobs were created under Biden.
4. African American Workers. African American entrepreneurship increased more under Biden.
5.  U.S. manufacturing. Factory construction in the United States has jumped under Biden.
6. Job creation by industry. Many more manufacturing jobs have been created under Biden
7. Home prices and values increased under Biden. 
8. American entrepreneurship increased both under Trump and Biden but more under Biden.
9. Health Insurance. Under Biden, the share of Americans with health insurance rose to an all-time high of 92.1 percent 
10. Child Poverty. Child poverty plummeted under Biden when the expanded Child Tax Credit was enacted.
11. Federal Debt. Both Trump and Biden worsened the federal debt but Trump added $4.8 trillion more than twice what Biden added at $2.2 trillion.

Trump was given the advantage over Biden in the following 5 categories:

1. Inflation vs. wages.  Wage growth was much higher than inflation under Trump
2. Economic vibes. Trump presided over a rise in “good vibes” about the economy. Polls and consumer-sentiment indicators showed that people were feeling good about their financial status.
3. Home buying. Under Trump, the share of households owned climbed to almost 66 percent, up from about 64% when he took office. Under Biden, the rate has remained at  66%.
4. Inequality: Wage inequality went down under Biden, but low-wage workers have struggled with inflation.
5. Annual income. Under Trump, household incomes rose to a high of $78,250 in 2019, from about $72,100 when he took office in 2017. Under Biden median household income fell to $74,580.

The category of Inequality was the only category where neither Trump nor Biden were given the advantage.

FINAL COMMENT

Perception in politics is everything and be damned the truth. No U.S. President can do much when it comes to cost of goods sold, such as groceries and gas prices, which are at the mercy and dictated by market forces of supply and demand and corporations desires to increase profits.

All three times that Trump has run for President he has relied upon the “big lie” which is if you repeat a lie over and over again, the public will believe it to be true and perceptions based on lies become the truth. Such is the case with Trump and his MAGA movement.

Trump’s has repeatedly claimed throughout his campaign that the economy was the best in its history under his leadership. Sadly, when it comes to the United States economy, the ploy and use of the big lie has worked with the general public given how close the election is.