On November 3, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll on the job performance of Mayor Tim Keller. The poll was conducted by its long-time polling firm Research & Polling which is considered the gold standard when it comes to political polls because of its accuracy.  The poll was part of the highly comprehensive polling the Journal does and reports on every election year.  The 2022 general election year poll covered all the major State and Federal elections and included polling on the top issues including abortion, crime, the economy, and education.

POLL RESULTS

The Journal poll asked the singular question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Keller is handling his job as Mayor?”

The results of the poll were:

APPROVE:  33%

DISAPPROVE: 40%

MIXED FEELINGS:  21%

WOULD NOT SAY: 5%

The data breakdown of the poll was reported as follows:

GENDER

MALE

32% of males approved of Keller’s job performance

44% of males disapproved of Keller’s job performance

19% of males had “mixed feeling” of Keller’s job performanc

FEMALE

34% of females approved of Keller’s job performance

37% of females disapproved of Keller’s job performance

22% of females had “mixed feeling” of Keller’s job performanc

ETHNICITY

HISPANIC

39% of Hispanics polled APPROVE of Keller’s job performance

39% of Hispanics polled DISAPPROVE of Keller’s job performance

21% of Hispanics polled expressed MIXED FEELINGS

ANGLO

32% of Anglos polled APPROVE of Keller’s job performance

40% of Anglos polled DISAPPROVE of Keller’s job performance

21% of Anglos polled expressed MIXED FEELINGS

POLITICAL PARTY

DEMOCRATS

49% of Democrats polled APPROVE of Keller’s job performance

20% of Democrats polled DISAPPROVE of Keller’s job performance

25% of Democrats polled expressed MIXED FEELINGS

REPUBLICANS

 9% of Republicans polled APPROVE of Keller’s job performance

70% of Republicans polled DISAPPROVE of Keller’s job performance

14% of Republicans polled expressed MIXED FEELINGS

INDEPENDANTS

29% of Independents polled APPROVE of Keller’s job performance

48% of Independents polled DISAPPROVE of Keller’s job performance

20% of Independents polled expressed MIXED FEELINGS

Opinions of Keller did vary by educational levels in the poll.  45% of those with a graduate degree were most likely to approve of Keller, while 57% of those with a high school education or less disapproved of his performance.

FACTOR’S CITED FOR REASON OF DECLINE

Brian Sanderoff, the President of Research & Polling, was interviewed by the Journal and was  asked to give his opinion as to the reasons why Keller has had such a sharp decline in his popularity. Sanderoff said voter concern about crime and homelessness are likely the biggest factors in the latest poll results and he said this:

“There are many government agencies and branches of government that play a role in addressing crime; however, the mayor and the city police department are front and center with the public.”

CRIME

In 2021, the city had a record 114 homicides and the city  had  the worst per capita homicide rate in city history, surpassing even the 1990’s crime.  Albuquerque is on pace to shatter its record, with 110 homicides so far this year.

In 2019, Mayor Tim Keller reacting to the spiking violent crime rates, announced 4 programs in 9 months to deal with and bring down the city’s high violent crime rates . Those APD programs are:

The Shield Unit
Declaring Violent Crime “public health” issue,
The Metro 15 Operation and
The “Violence Intervention Plan” (VIP Program).

Keller’s programs to bring down violent crime have been a failure. During each year of Mayor Tim Keller’s years in office, the city’s murder rates rose, dropped only one year, and then rose to a historical high. Following is the breakdown of homicide by year:

2017: 72 homicides
2018: 69 homicides.
2019: 82 homicides
2020: 76 homicides
2021: 117 homicides (Per capita murder rate of 20.8 per 100,000.)
2022: 110  homicides as of November  3, 2022. 

The link to quoted source material is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/1534762/homicide-numbers-high-despite-pandemic.html?amp=1

Overall crime in Albuquerque also rose in 2021 for the first time since 2018.  It marked the first increase in property crime since the city notched back-to-back 10% drops, pushing decreases in overall crime even as violence steadily rose over the past several years.

HOMELESSNESS

Homelessness  has remained a persistent and pervasive challenge for Keller while city residents  have expressed frustration  and even anger with the city’s response to the issue.  In June, the city released its government-funded satisfaction poll.  70% of those surveyed felt  the City is doing a poor job of addressing homelessness, 9% of residents gave City Government positive marks for addressing the homelessness issue and 20% gave the city mixed or neutral rating. The percentage of residents who give the City positive scores for addressing homelessness had risen from 13% in 2019 to 29% in 2020 but it has now fallen by 20% and is  9% currently. The link to the full survey is here:

https://www.cabq.gov/mayor/documents/final_coa-citizen-sat-2022.pdf

Since the citizen satisfaction survey Keller doubled down on his efforts to address the homeless crisis.  He increased city funding to the Family and Community Services Department  by over $24,353,064 going from $35,145,851 in the 2021 fiscal year to $59,498,915 in the 2022 fiscal year  to provide services and housing to the homeless and  he made controversial decisions intended to address the city’s homeless crisis. Those decisions included closing Coronado Park, the  de facto city sanction homeless encampment Keller had encouraged and he had to close because of crime, illicit drugs and contamination, advocating for city sanctioned tent encampments known as Safe Outdoor Spaces and  advocating for “Motel Conversions” where the city will purchase existing motels and convert them into low-income housing.

Safe Outdoor Spaces are organized camp sites where upwards of 50 people who are homeless can legally sleep in tents or cars while accessing showers and other amenities with as many as 18 such campsites will be allowed. The City has already approved one Safe Outdoor Space for  “sex-trafficking victims” and other vulnerable populations to be located on vacant land at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE . The approval is being appealed by at least 7 appellants.

The city is already on track to purchase the Sure Stay Hotel on Hotel Circle in the North East  Heights for a motel conversion for low income housing by using Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funding of $3,059,662.12 in Community Development Block Grants,  $2,443,724.00 from Public Facilities monies  and $615,938.12 from Foreclosure Prevention for a total property purchase of  $6,119,324.24.

CONFLICTS WITH THE CITY COUNCIL

During his first term, most of Keller’s  initiatives  sailed through the  City Council which had a 6 – 4  Democrat majority. After being elected to his second term, Keller has been at increasing odds with the city council which after the 2021 municipal election is  now decidedly  leans more conservative with a 5-4 Democrat majority. Less than a year into his second term, Keller has issued 8 vetoes compared to just 5  in his first four-year term.

CHRONOLOGY OF DECLINE

It was just one year ago during his campaign for a second term  that Keller registered a 50% approval rating in the Journal Poll. Other Journal Polls found a majority in Albuquerque approved of Keller during his first term, including 60% in 2020 and 61% in 2018.

In 2017 then New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller was elected Mayor coming in first by beating all 7 of his opponents to get into a runoff. He went on to win in 2017 by a decisive landslide against Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis who secured 37.8% with Keller winning with 62.2% of the vote.

Mayor Keller won his 2021 election to a second 4 year term with 56% of the final vote and beating Sheriff Manny Gonzales who secured 26% of the vote and Der Führer Trump Radio Shock Jock Eddy Aragon  secured 18% of the vote.

MAYOR TIM KELLERS REACTION TO POLL

Mayor Keller said  the results were no  surprise to him  given the outcome of the city’s citizen survey from earlier this year. That poll  found that 52% of Albuquerque residents are concerned about the city’s direction. Keller told the Journal he, too, is frustrated with some of the city’s challenges and what he called the current “hard times.” Keller also proclaimed the city survey validated some of his major initiatives, including the forthcoming Gateway Center homeless shelter and services center.

Mayor Keller had this to say:

“At the end of the day, mayors take the heat for all of America’s problems, so that’s just part of the job. …  It shows our city needs continued help from every level of government.”

Keller noted that those who approve and those who reported mixed feelings together make up  54%  of those polled.  He noted  that the 54% is  nearly equal to  his performance in last year’s election and that he sees opportunity to turn those on-the-fence respondents into believers. Keller told the Journal this:

“I think there is certainly plenty of runway left.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545820/mayor-kellers-job-approval-rating-sinks.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

When then New Mexico State Auditor Tim Keller was running for Mayor in 2017, he was asked in a private conversation why he wanted to be Mayor? His answer was swift and sure and he said  “Because I think it would be really neat to be Mayor of my hometown and I have done good at all the jobs I have ever  held!”

Keller the eternal optimist with a smile on his face and a grin in his voice at all times no doubt believes he has done a good job as Mayor for the last 5 years.  Keller can blame all the circumstances he wants for his 33% approval rating, but the blunt truth he has been a dramatic failure in dealing with the very problems he promised to solve.

On Monday, October 31, exactly one week before the November 8 general election, the Albuquerque Journal published the results of its one and only poll it commission in the state wide races for Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer State Land Commissioner. Since the June 6 primary, all 4 races have been relatively low key with no controversy and almost none existent political TV commercials except those that have been run  for the offices of  Secretary of State and Attorney General.  Four years ago, Democrats swept all 4 positions. The geographic patterns of the poll revealed in all 4 races  the Republicans did  well in the east while Democrats did well in the Albuquerque areas and in the north region of the state.

The Office of New Mexico State Auditor is on the November 8 ballot as an uncontested race.  Democrats Joseph Maestas and  Zack Quintero ran  in the primary against each other  with no Republicans  running. Democrat Joseph Maestas won the primary election and he will appear on the November 8 ballot as running unopposed. Current State Auditor Brian Colon ran unsuccessfully for Attorney General in the June primary against Raul Torrez. The State Auditor oversees and has administrative rights over the accounting and financial functions of all state agencies. The State  Auditor essential acts  as a watchdog over other state agencies, performing mandatory  internal government audits and investigating fraud allegations.

Based on the poll, all 4 Democrats are leading their Republican opponents with comfortable margins and it’s more likely than not the Democrats will prevail on election day.  Simply put, Democrats have a significant advantage over Republicans and Independents base on party affiliation. According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows: Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,  Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %, No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %, Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 % Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

Following are the poll results in each of the 4 contested races:

SECRETARY OF STATE

The mission of the Secretary of State is the enforcement of elections laws and government ethics laws, the final certification of elections,  and  preservation of legislation and gubernatorial decrees vital to the operation of state government. The Secretary of State oversees and the registration and regulatory oversight of commerce and industry. The Bureau of Elections of the Office of the Secretary of State administers elections and enforces local, state, and federal election laws. The Ethics Division of the Office of the Secretary of State regulates campaign finance and lobbying within the state.

https://www.nm.gov/elected-officials/secretary-of-state/

The poll results for the office of Secretary of State are as follows:

Democrat Incumbent Maggie Toulouse Oliver:  50%

Republican Audrey Trujillo: 35%.

Libertarian Mayna Myers: 4%

Undecided: 9%

Declined to state: 1%

Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver held the biggest margin  outdistancing Republican Audrey Trujillo by 15%.  Bottom of Form

Toulouse Oliver, has  served for 16 years as either Bernalillo County clerk or secretary of state and  has a solid record of public service.  Two weeks ago she began running TV ads touting her record of public service and accusing her Republican opponent of being and election denier.

 ATTORNEY GENERAL

The Attorney General and the Department of Justice, collectively referred to as the Office of the Attorney General, represent and defend the legal interests and sovereignty of the people of the State of New Mexico. The Office of Attorney General exercises the responsibilities delegated by the New Mexico Constitution, statutes enacted by the New Mexico Legislature, and the common law.  The Attorney General has primary authority for enforcement of consumer protection and antitrust laws, prosecution of criminal appeals and the training and certification of peace officers.

https://www.nmag.gov/about-the-office/#:~:text=The%20Attorney%20General%20and%20the,the%20State%20of%20New%20Mexico.

Democrat Raul Torrez and Republican Jeremy Gay are competing to succeed two term Democrat Attorney General Hector Balderas  who is term limited and barred from running for another term.

Raul Torrez is the current Bernalillo County District Attorney who was elected to a second, 4 year term in 2020.  Should he win, the Governor will appoint his successor to fill out the remaining 2 years of his term and the successor will have to stand for election in 2022. There are no term limits for Bernalillo Count District Attorney.

Republican Jeremy Gay is a former Judge Advocate in the Marine corp  now in private practice and has done limited criminal defense work.

Following are the poll results:

Democrat Raul Torrez: 49%

Republican  Jeremy Gay: 39%

Undecided: 10%

Decline to state:  2%

Jeremy Gay in the poll showed strength on the east side of the state, which includes the conservative oil patch in southeastern New Mexico. Gay had support from 56% of voters on the east side while Torres had  25% support on east side of the state.for Torrez.

Raul Torrez  was favored by 61% of voters in north-central New Mexico, which includes Santa Fe and traditional Democratic strongholds. Gay was favored by 21% of voters in the area.

TORREZ GOES NEGATIVE WITH MISLEADING AD

Although Raul  Torrez has  been  leading in the race  by comfortable margins from the get go, he has now begun to run a negative ad  that have raised the eyebrows of  more than a few, especially within the New Mexico Bar.

On October 31, KOAT-TV Target 7 ran a story entitled  “Raúl Torrez ad attacks Jeremy Gay for being defense attorney”. The transcript of the article is as follows:

“The race for Attorney General has heated up on the airwaves and, in a recent attack ad, Democrat Raúl Torrez is criticizing his Republican opponent for being a defense attorney while he was “standing up for victims.”

In the ad, Torrez, a two-term Bernalillo County District Attorney, says he is going to stop the “revolving door” of criminal justice and then he attacks Republican Jeremy Gay for “representing dangerous criminals, child sex offenders.”

Torrez is making reference to a federal court case in which Gay is listed as the attorney representing a man who was charged with aggravated sexual abuse and intentionally touching a minor. The man he represented pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 78 months in prison.

KOAT legal expert John Day says just because an attorney was a criminal defense lawyer should not eliminate them from running for Attorney General.

“The lawyer’s job is to provide a defense to the client, end of story,” Day said. “When you’re a lawyer, you take an oath to defend the constitution the same way doctors take an oath to do no harm and serve their patients. And you can’t say that just because a lawyer is defending someone, that they’re endorsing their conduct.”

Target 7 reached out to Gay’s campaign. In an email, a spokesman said Gay didn’t actually represent the man and “Raúl’s allegations are a complete misrepresentation. Jeremy’s law staff file what’s called an ‘entry of appearance’ in cases that pass through the firm regardless of whether he works directly on them. He did not appear in court, draft any pleadings or participate in any litigation in U.S. Versus Largo. The defendant was fully represented by another attorney—which is the constitutional right of every American.”

According to the entry of appearance in federal court, Gay’s name is signed electronically.

“The ad is technically correct,” Day said. “Jeremy Gay did file an actual document that says ‘entry of appearance,’ which means he personally entered an appearance in the case. And that’s a fact that’s in the court file.”

Target 7 combed through state court records as well and found that Gay’s law firm also represented people charged with DWIs. According to Torrez’s campaign website, he never spent time as a defense attorney. Gay’s site says he is a former marine and he too spent time prosecuting criminals in the Judge Advocate General’s Office.

Current attorney general Hector Balderas is unable to run for office due to the state’s term limits.

The last time a Republican was elected AG was in 1986.”

The link to the KOAT story is here:

https://www.koat.com/article/torrez-ad-attacks-gay-for-being-defense-attorney/41820187

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS ON ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE

Simply put, Raul Torrez knows better.  His arrogance calls into question his own ethics and knowledge of the law, especially his understanding of our constitutional rights.  All defendants are entitled to the presumption of innocence until proven guilty by prosecutors  and all defendants are entitled to be represented by an attorney, even to the point if a defendant can not afford an attorney, one must be appointed by the court.

The  politcal ad criticising Republican Jeremy Gay for being a defense attorney is below the belt. It is  absolutely  unnecessary giving Torrez’s  standing in the polls. As is the case with his dealing with Judges with whom he disagree with, Torrez  has no qualms about disparaging anyone he perceives as opposing his political agenda. It’s likely Torrez  will win and the public will have to  endure another  4 years of his self righteous indignation, publicity seeking ways, as he prepares to run for yet another higher office which he is known to covet.

STATE TREASURER

The New Mexico State Treasurer serves as the chief banker and investment officer of the state. As such, the state treasurer provides cash management to state agencies, invests the state agency and local government investment pools, and administers New Mexico’s ABLE and retirement savings programs. The state treasurer also chairs the State Treasurer’s Investment Committee and is an ex officio voting member of numerous boards and commission dealing with state financial investment matters and government pensions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Mexico_State_Treasurer#:~:text=Powers%20and%20duties,-In%20New%20Mexico&text=As%20such%2C%20the%20state%20treasurer,ABLE%20and%20retirement%20savings%20programs.

The two candidate running for New Mexico State Treasurer are Democrat Laura Montoya,  a former Sandoval County treasurer, and Republican Harry Montoya a former Santa Fe County commissioner, a position he held while registered as a Democrat.  Harry Montoya also served on the Pojoaque school board. Although the 2 candidates have the same last name, they are not related. They are competing to succeed two term Democrat State Treasurer Tim Eichenberg  who is term limited and barred from running for another term.  The race for State Treasurer is the closest of  the 4 races polled.  Following are the poll results:

Democrat Laura Montoya:  46%

Republican Harry Montoya: 39%.

Undecided: 13%

Decline to state:  2%

STATE LAND COMMISSIONER

The New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands  leads the New Mexico State Land Office.  The office is responsible for administering 9  million acres of surface and 13 million acres of subsurface land for the beneficiaries of the New Mexico State Land Trust. The office’s mission is “to use state trust land to raise revenue for New Mexico public schools, hospitals, colleges, and other public institutions.”

https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_Commissioner_of_Public_Lands#:~:text=The%20land%20commissioner%20is%20responsible,hospitals%2C%20and%20other%20public%20institutions.

The poll results for the office of State Land Commissioner are as follows:

Democrat Sephanie Garcia Richard: 46%

Republican Jefferson Byrd: 38%

Undecided: 15%

Decline to state: 1%

Democrat Sephanie Garcia Richard is seeking her second 4 year term. She is  a former state legislator.   Republican Jefferson Byrd is  a member of the Public Regulation Commission.

Garcia Richard had especially strong support among Hispanic voters while Byrd  had a two-point edge among male voters.

POLL METHODOLOGY

The Albuquerque Journal Poll was conducted by Research & Polling whose President is Brian Sanderoff.  Research & Polling has done political polling for the Albuquerque Journal for upwards of 50 years. The polling  company is considered the most reliable polling company in New Mexico politics because of its history of  accuracy.

The Journal Poll is based on a scientific, statewide sample of 625 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The sample also includes people who registered to vote since January 2021 who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 20 through Oct. 27. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples. All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone. Both cellphone numbers (83%) and landlines (17%) of proven general election voters were used.

The link to read the unedited Albuquerque Journal article with pie charts on the poll is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545127/democrats-hold-leads-in-four-statewide-races-ex-they-have-a-structur.html

BERNALILLO COUNTY SHERIFF POLLING

The Bernalillo County Sherriff is a New Mexico Constitution created position. The Bernalillo County Sheriff and is an elected position and allows for 2 four-year terms. The current Bernalillo County Sheriff is Sheriff Manny Gonzales. The mission statement of the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO) is the identification, apprehension and prosecution of offenders of the laws and the preservation of peace and includes the protection of life and property. The Sheriff Office’s  primary jurisdiction is in Bernalillo County and has concurrent jurisdiction over the city with APD. The Bernalillo County Sheriff’s budget is upwards of  $53,030,000 and the office employs over  421 full time positions with over 300 sworn law enforcement professionals.

https://www.bernco.gov/bernalillo-county-sheriff/

On November 2, the Albuquerque Journal published the results of its one and only poll in the Bernalillo County Sherriff’s race. The poll was again conducted by Research & Polling. The poll was conducted from October  20 through October 27.  The poll was a countywide sample of 385 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll has margin of error of plus or minus 5% points.

Following are the raw data poll results:

Democrat John Allen: 42%

Republican Paul Pacheco: 36%

Libertarian Kaelen Dryer: 6%

Undecided: 15%

Decline to state: 1%

DATA DOWNLOAD

The poll results were broken down into the categories of political parties, gender and ethnicity with respect to the Democrat John Allen and Republican Paul Pacheco.

PARTY AFFILIATION:  With respect to party affiliation,  66% of Democrats polled said they are voting for Democrat John Allen and 13% of Democrats said they were voting for Republican Paul Pacheco.  The poll numbers reversed when it came to Republicans.  75% of Republicans polled said they were voting for Republican Paul Pacheco and 11% of the Republicans said they were voting for Democrat John Allen. Independents split with 29%  polled saying they were voting for Democrat John Allen and  34 % of Independents saying they were voting for Republican Paul Pacheco.

GENDER: With respect to the male vote who said they would be voting, both Democrat John Allen and Republican Paul Pacheco each secured 39% of the male vote. With respect to the female vote,  44% of females polled said they would be voting for Democrat John Allen while 34% of females polled said they would be  voting for  Republican Paul Pacheco.

ETHNICITY:  Democrat John Allen has the advantage when it comes to both  Hispanic and Anglo voters.   44% of Hispanic voters polled said they would be voting for Democrat John Allen while 35% Hispanic voters polled said they would be voting for Republican Paul Pacheco.   42% of Anglo  voters polled said they would be voting for Democrat John Allen while  36% Anglo  voters polled said they would be voting for Republican Paul Pacheco.

According to the Journal article reporting on the poll, Libertarian Kaelen Dryer has no law enforcement experience and is running as a self-described protest candidate.  According to the poll, Dryer is more popular among Democrats with 4% favoring him  and with 1%  Republicans  favoring him.  Dryers favorability among Democrats is likely due to his progressive message and  his candidacy hurts Democrat  Allen more than Republican Pacheco.

Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc., described the race for Sheriff as “unusual,” “interesting” and “competitive”.  Sanderoff  analyzed the race for Sherriff as follows:

“If this was 2018, I’d say this race is over – but it’s not. … We’re in this environment where people are concerned about crime and so I think the quality of their campaigns in the closing days could have an impact on it. …  The crossover vote on party affiliation is bigger in this race than all the other races that we’ve seen. …  [Republican]  Pacheco has 13% support among Democrats and [Democrat] Allen has 11% support among Republicans … Those percentages are larger than any of the other races in the Journal Poll.  …  [Both candidates have]   long careers in [law enforcement]  area and have, I’m sure, made lots of friends and have lots of family and acquaintances that they’ve met and encountered throughout their long life and career in Albuquerque. …  So you’re bound to know people of opposite parties who are going to support you.”

SHERRIFF’S RACE GOES NEGATIVE

The race for Bernalillo County Sherriff is a down on the ballot race and as such is considered a “low profile” race historically garnering little attention.  However because of the city’s and counties high crime rates and with current two term Sherriff Manny Gonzales term limited and prohibited from running again, and given Gonzales’ unsuccessful run for Mayor in 2021, more attention is being given to the race. Both Democrat Allen and Republican Pacheco are going negative.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS ON BERNCO SHERRIFF’S RACE

Republican Paul Pacheco going negative is not at all surprising and was expected given the fact that Republican Political Operative Jay McClesky is Pacheco’s campaign manager. McClesky  is also Republican Governor candidate Mark Ronchetti’s campaign manager and political consultant. Jay McCleskey is the go-to guy for anyone who is Republican running for office willing to spend and do whatever it takes to win an election at any and all costs.  The only way McClesky knows how to win a race is to go negative and into the gutter.  Jay McCleskey is New Mexico’s version of Lee Atwater or Karl Rove, two of the most despicable right wing Republican bottom feeders and political consultants and strategists for the Republican Party.  McClesky is known for his negative slash-and-burn tactics to disparage and viciously malign Democrats at all levels and he has been very successful at it in New Mexico for the last 20 years making a very lucrative living.

Republican Paul Pacheco has been running a very negative TV ad calling Allen a “dirty cop” because he was sued for an unlawful search as a New Mexico State Police officer in the late 1990s. That case settled for $30,000 and it was strictly civil in nature.  Democrat Allen for his part said he received verbal consent to search the car but not a toolbox in the bed of the truck where drugs were found.  Allen admitted  he should have communicated more clearly with assisting officers and further reviewed evidence even more  before it was presented to the court.

Democrat John  Allen’s campaign has also gone negative saying Republican Pacheco should be called  “Pinocchio” calling him a liar and pointing out that in recent ads Pacheco  has changed the pronunciation of his last  name from Pah-CHEEK-o to PAH-CHECK-o.  Pacheco for his part has defended the way he pronounces his last name saying that he is of Portuguese and Spanish heritage. He says the pronunciation of his name is  a “back East”  pronunciation where his family is from and there it is pronounced “Pah-CHEEK-o.” He said he promised his mother on her deathbed that he would pronounce it that way but also admitted he pronounces it  “Pah-CHECK-o”  so as not to offend people. What Pacheco  does not disclose is if he uses the Pah-CHECK-o pronunciations only with Hispanics especially in the South Valley as he campaigns and uses the “Pah-CHEEK-o” pronunciation only with Anglos thereby attempting to mislead people about his ethnicity.

Brian Sanderoff,  president of Research & Polling Inc., made this  disclosure regarding the Sheriffs’ poll and he said this:

“In our survey we pronounced his name ‘Pah-CHEEK-o’ because that’s what he goes by, what he went by as a legislator, that’s what he went by in his early ads. … When you see the name on the ballot in the voting booth, you’re going to see “Pacheco” and that could create some interesting dynamics.”

Ostensibly what Sanderoff is saying is the spelling of the the last name on the ballot will lead people to think he is Hispanic as opposed to being Anglo thereby giving him an edge with Hispanic voters when they vote. The Hispanic vote in the county is formidable and decisive in an close county election because of the South Valley.

POLL METHODOLOGY

The Journal Sherriff’s Poll is based on a scientific sample that includes people who registered to vote since January 2021 who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Oct. 20 through Oct. 27. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The link to read the unedited Albuquerque Journal article with charts on the poll is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545463/race-for-bernalillo-county-sheriff-remains-competitive.html

FINAL COMMENT

The positions of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and State Land Commissioner as well as the Bernalillo County Sherriff’s office are highly critical positions protecting the public’s safety,  best interest, voting rights, and remedies and its finances.

Please vote on November 8 if you have not already voted.

On October 31, Halloween, former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico Governor.  Trump made the announcement early Monday Holloween morning on his “Truth Social”  media platform and said this:

“New Mexico has an absolutely terrible Governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham. She is WEAK on Crime, bad on the Border where illegal aliens are pouring into our Country at record numbers, & has almost no support from Law Enforcement, which fully understands what a disaster she has been. Also, Drugs & Human Trafficking are OUT OF CONTROL. The good news is that Republican Nominee Mark Ronchetti is outstanding. He will be tough & smart on Crime, the Border & everything else. Mark as my Total Endorsement!”

Ronchetti has  received high-profile endorsements from former Vice President Mike Pence, Virgina  Governor Glenn Youngkin and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with all 3 traveling to New Mexico to make their endorsements.

The Ronchetti campaign responded  to Trump’s support in a statement and said this:

“Mark is supported by people from all walks of life and all different viewpoints – including Democratic sheriffs, former Libertarian presidential candidate and New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and now former President Trump. With crime at record levels and just 1 in 5 students learning at grade level, it’s not hard to see that, as governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham has made things worse and New Mexico needs to go in a different – and better – direction.”

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham released the following statement in response to Trump’s endorsement:

“Donald Trump’s endorsement of Mark Ronchetti emphasizes the clear choice in this race: I will keep delivering on the issues that matter to New Mexico families, while Mark Ronchetti would bring Donald Trump’s extreme national Republican policies to New Mexico. 

For the past four years, I have kept New Mexicans and their families at the heart of every decision I have made as governor. Together, we have made historic investments in public education and public safety, diversified and grown our economy, and expanded access to affordable health care. We are now the first state in the country to offer nearly universal child care and tuition-free higher education. We have a 14-year-low unemployment rate, have added 32,000 jobs in the last year, and have record surpluses supported by growing industries like clean energy, film, and cannabis. We are making strides in lowering the cost of healthcare and making every New Mexico community safer. 

My opponent would set us backward. Mark Ronchetti has made it clear that he will bring a far-right Trump agenda to the Roundhouse. Like Donald Trump, he would attempt to drain funding from public schools, rip away health care from New Mexicans, and ban abortion in our state. On Election Day, New Mexicans will stand up to continue our progress and stop Donald Trump’s chosen candidate.”

Links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/former-president-trump-endorses-mark-ronchetti/

https://www.koat.com/article/former-president-donald-trump-endorses-mark-ronchetti/41826891

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545291/trump-endorses-ronchetti-in-nm-governor-race.html

SMOTHERMON INSISTS RONCHETTI CONFESSED HE WOULD BAN ABORTION

Legacy Church Senior Pastor Steve Smothermon has for a second time exerted himself into the race for New Mexico  Governor.  On November 1, it was reported that Smothermon in a second  Sunday sermon to his congregation is saying that Ronchetti publicly “misrepresented” a previous discussion between the 2 of them about abortion and that Ronchetti does indeed plan on banning all abortions in New Mexico if elected Governor.

Smothermon during a recent sermon  cited Ronchetti’s remarks during  the October 17 televised debate with Governor Lujan Grisham.  Ronchetti was asked about whether he had previously told Smothermon  his goal would be to “end abortion in New Mexico.”  Ronchetti responded by saying this:

“You’d have to ask Pastor Smothermon that, but I told him everything I’ve told everybody else in this [race]  and that is that I am pro-life, but I believe this is a very personal issue and we need to treat it as such.”

Ronchetti has also said in interviews he has never called for a complete abortion ban.

Smothermon in his recent  sermon  disputed Ronchetti and said the church’s vetting of candidates is not intended to be confidential. Smothermon told his congregation:

“Folks, I assure you, he told me exactly what I said. Exactly. But he got on TV and said he didn’t … It doesn’t matter what we say we believe, it matters what we do and that determines what we believe.”

In his recent sermon, Smothermon  was as also very  critical of Lujan Grisham. He called the governor  a “murderer” and “reprobate” for her stance on abortion.

During his campaign, Ronchetti has called for abortion to be banned after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with allowable exceptions in cases of rape, incest and when a mother’s life is in jeopardy. He is also calling for  a constitutional amendment for voters to decide if abortions should be banned that would require legislative approval.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for her part opposes limiting abortion rights. During the 2021  legislative session, she successively lobbied  lawmakers last year to repeal a long-dormant 1969 state law that banned abortion in most situations.

That law would have been reimposed in New Mexico after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned its landmark 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion and empowering states to set new restrictions. During the October 12 live debate on KOAT TV 7, the Govenor highlighted her signing of a bill that repealed New Mexico’s 1969 criminal abortion law outlawing abortions  and  she said:

“Women have a choice in New Mexico today because I’m governor”

The link to quoted news source material is  here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545151/pastor-says-ronchetti-would-ban-abortion-ex-sermon-repeats-claim-abo.html

THE FIRST TIME RECALLED

It was on July 10, that the very conservative Republican pastor Reverend Steven Smothermon of Legacy Church, during his Sunday church service, that Smothermon said from his pulpit:

I know Mark Ronchetti came out, and some people are very upset, because he said I think [abortion] is reasonable up to 15 weeks. . . I know a lot of us got mad. I did too. I had a long talk with him for hours. I said, dude right out of the gate you blew it and he said here’s what I was trying to do. I know what you were trying to do but you didn’t do it and here’s what he said.

He said, ‘listen, I just want to start with getting rid of partial birth abortion in the whole state’–which we should be happy with–and he said ‘but I can’t just go in and do it 100 percent because we won’t ever get elected.’ He said I just want to start but his goal would be to end abortion in New Mexico. Just so you know.

How do I know that? Because I talked to him for hours and I said I won’t support anybody that believes in killing a baby ever. I don’t care how much you are right on other issues. That one issue is enough for me because if you don’t believe in life, something’s wrong.

The full video of the Smothemon sermon can be viewed with comments on Ronchetti starting at 27:10.

https://subsplash.com/legacynm/media/mi/+d3rwjh2

Ronchetti’s campaign spokesman Enrique Knell was quick to respond with a statement in an attempt to explain Ronchetti’s position and distance Ronchetti from Smotherman. According to the statement:

“[Mark Ronchetti told Smothermon] exactly what he has told everyone else. … He wants to end late-term abortion in New Mexico by limiting abortion to the first 15 weeks. … His position has been clear and consistent. [Smothermon] is free to express his position on these issues”.

Knell also took a shot at Lujan Grisham, calling her an extremist who is “pushing abortion up to the moment of birth.”

In an interview with the Santa Fe New Mexican, Smothermon tried to backtrack and placed a positive spin on what he said from the pulpit about Ronchetti. Smothermon said this:

“Mark was clear with me that he is personally pro-life and what he intends to do as governor, which is identical to what he says in his campaign commercial. … My comments were not intended to convey his strategy as governor. … I believe Mark is committed to ending the terrible practice of late-term abortion in our state, a practice that the current governor sadly embraces.”

The link to the quoted news source material is here:

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/conservative-pastor-knocks-ronchetti-on-abortion-moderate-stance/article_925e9254-0471-11ed-949a-63b8453bc24b.html

EARLY VOTING TURN OUT

On October 27,  it was reported that upwards of 12% of registered voters in New Mexico have already cast their ballots in the Nov. 8 election.  More than 165,000 ballots have been cast so far, according to figures released by the Secretary of State’s Office.  About 55% of those who have cast ballots so far are Democrats. Republicans had cast 33% of the votes and independents about 11%.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2543891/nm-turnout-hits-12-so-far.html

On October 29, the Albuquerque Journal released its second and final poll in the Governors race that revealed that Governor Lujan Grisham has an 8% lead over Make Ronchetti. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham  polled at 50%, Republican Mark Ronchetti  polled at 42%, Undecided polled at  5% and Libertarian Karen Bedonie polled at 3%.

Among the political parties, Governor MLJ has 87% support of Democrats while Rochetti has support of 9% of Democrat. Among Republicans, Ronchetti has 88% support among Republicans and Gov. MLG has 5% support of Republicans. Amongst Independents, Gov. MLG has 42% support while Ronchetti has 37% support.

The link to the final Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

You gotta  wonder given the manner in which Der Führer Trump made his  endorsement if Mark Ronchetti even knew it was going to happen and if he asked for it.  Ronchetti has tried to distance himself from Trump during the campaign.  Ronchetti once lampooned Trump during a public event at the University of New Mexico.  Ronchetti said this at the event:

“I’m a Christian conservative who used to be a Republican until the “Orange One”. I’m afraid that has taken a part of my soul, and that’s not coming back.”

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/with-trump-at-bay-ronchetti-cant-be-counted-out/article_bdc8fae2-fc65-11ec-a263-473f12317352.html

Ronchetti faced questions from other Republicans during this year’s primary race about his loyalty to Trump, with some GOP rivals citing Ronchetti’s  referring to Trump as the “orange one” during a 2019 climate symposium. In response, Ronchetti’s campaign said the comments about Trump were “old jokes” taken out of context.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545291/trump-endorses-ronchetti-in-nm-governor-race.html

Given what Ronchetti  said about Trump in public, his  late endorsement of Ronchetti is very puzzling if not downright suspicious. Trump is known for going after  Republican elected officials and candidates  who do not support him, and New Mexico Republicans are no different. On May 25, 2016 appearing at a campaign rally in Albuquerque when he was running for President, Trump unleashed a blistering assault on then Republican Governor Susana Martinez  who skipped the event. Martinez had been critical of Trump and refuse  to endorse him for President  expressing  concerns about him.   Trump  attacked Republican  Governor Susana Martinez saying she was “not doing her job.”  At the time,  Martinez was considered the most prominent Republican Hispanic woman in American politics and she was the chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association. Trump faulted Martinez by falsely asserting she was allowing Syrian refugees to settle in the state, and blamed her for Albuquerque’s unemployment numbers as well as the increase in the number of New Mexico residents on food stamps. “It’s your governor’s fault … We have to get your governor and get going. She’s got to do a better job, O.K.? Your governor has got to do a better job.” 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/26/us/politics/donald-trump-gov-susana-martinez-new-mexico.html

It is painfully obvious that Ronchetti  downplayed Der Führer Trump’s  endorsement when his campaign said “Mark is supported by people from all walks of life and all different viewpoints – including Democratic sheriffs, former Libertarian presidential candidate and New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and now former President Trump.”   By mentioning Democrats,  Republicans and Libertarians in the same breath, Ronchetti clumsily  attempted  a political pivot by trying to say he has a cross appeal, which he does not.

Simply put, Der Führer Trump’s endorsement has done Ronchetti far more harm than good and he should have rejected it if he did not ask for it.   It’s very likely Ronchetti already has Trump supporters voting for him given the fact that the second and last Albuquerque Journal poll revealed that  Ronchetti has  88% support among Republicans.  In order for Ronchtti to prevail, he needed strong cross over votes from Democrats and Independents. The only thing the Trump endorsement has accomplished is to galvanize and motivate Democrats to get out and vote for Governor Lujan Grisham.

The Trump endorsement and Ronchetti’s failure to reject it makes the Albuquerque Journal look very foolish.  Ronchetti  sought to distance himself from Trump in some ways, saying in response to the Albuquerque Journal candidate questionnaire this fall that he does not believe Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that he was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.  Least anyone forgets, on October 23, the Albuquerque Journal  endorsed Mark Ronchetti for Governor as it trashed Governor Lujan Grisham. In its endorsement, the Journal  editor’s wrote in part:

“New Mexico is at a crossroads …  We simply cannot afford four more years of the same. …   We could not do this if Ronchetti agreed with or even waffled over whether the 2020 election was stolen; unlike most Republicans in the 2022 general election, he answered a straight up “no” when asked if he believed former President Trump’s Big Lie.”

Der Führer Trump has made it clear repeatedly that he will not endorse Republican’s unless they buy into his big lie that the 2020 election was stolen.  Trump is also  known to go after Repubican elected officials and candidates  who do not support him as evidence by his attack on New Mexico Republican Governor Susana Martinez.   The Trump endorsement likely means that Ronchetti lied to the Journal over if he believes the 2020 election was stolen.

Republican pastor Reverend Steven Smothermon’s recent  sermon  disputing  Ronchetti’s version of what he  told Smothermon in private has again  seriously harmed the Ronchetti campaign. With a pastor like Smothermon, you can be assured that nothing is sacred said to him in private, especially  when it comes from  lying politicians like Mark Ronchetti.

Given the fact that 55% of the 165,000 early votes  cast so far are Democrats and that the Governor has 87% support of Democrats in Journal poll, it likely she already has a considerable lead in the race.  It was reported only 33% of the votes cast are Republican with Ronchetti having  88% support among Republicans in the Journal poll.

Ronchetti’s acceptance of the  Trump endorsement and his private  confession to Pastor Steve Smother only confirms that Mark  Ronchetti will say and do whatever it takes, even lie, to be elected Governor.

The 2022 congressional races are the first to be held with newly drawn geographical districts after the New Mexico legislature redistricted all 3 congressional districts this year  based on the United States census data.

On October 31, the Albuquerque Journal published its first and only poll results in the states 3 congressional races. The poll in the 2^nd Congressional District between Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell and Democrat Gabe Vasquez  no doubt came as a very big shock to the political establishment in both the Democrat and Republican party establishments.

The results of the poll in the 1^st Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Michelle Garcia Homes and in the 3^rd Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez and Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson reveals that both incumbent democrats have very comfortable margins and they will likely be re elected.

2^nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: VASQUEZ LEADS HERRELL BY 2%

A Journal poll found that Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez has a  2% lead over incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell. The polling gives Vasquez 47% of likely voters supporting him while 45% favor Herrell with  8% of voters are undecided. The 2^nd Congressional District for decades has been dominated by very conservative southern New Mexico and has elected Republicans and was represented Republican Party State Chair Steve Pierce who while in congress was a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus.  After redistricting, the 2^nd Congressional District now  includes parts of Albuquerque’s West Side and South Valley,   which are decisively more progressive, and with progressive  Las Cruces, the district now leans Democrat.

Notwithstanding the closeness of the poll, and the fact that it falls within the polls 4.8% margin of error,  Democrat Vasquez clearly has the momentum on his side against a Republican incumbent.  With a full 13 days until the election, Vasquez could easily score a major upset over Harrell.

According to the Journal poll Vasquez has opened up a large lead among Hispanics in the district. He has the support of 61% of Hispanics while Harrell has  29% of Hispanics who  say they will vote for her.  Harrell has the support of 60% of Anglos in the district.

The 2^nd Congressional race has by far been the most expensive of the three House races. Herrell has raised over $4 million and Vasquez over $3.2 million.  Both Vasquez and Harrell have been hammering each other relentlessly airing television ads attacking the other and both claiming that each other is too extreme for the District.

The 2^nd Congressional District does lean conservative which is the reason Harrell is saying Vasquez is an extreme progressive Democrat alleging he would such down the oil ang gas industry in New Mexico, thousands would lose their jobs  and that he would defund the police.  Vasquez has portrayed Harrell as an extreme right wing Republican who has denied the September 11 terrorist attack, refused to vote to certify Joe Biden as President and who has sponsored legislation to nationally criminalize all abortions.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 2^nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Vasquez has the support of 46% of males who said they will vote while Harrell has 45%.  Vasquez has 48% of females who said they will vote while Harrell has 44%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Vasquez has the support of a whopping 61% of Hispanics which is more than double of Harrell’s  29%.  Harrell has the support of 60% of the Anglo vote while Vasquez has 34% of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Vasquez has 86% support of Democrats while Republican Harrell has  10% support of Democrats. Republican  Harrell has 89% support of Republicans while Democrat Vasquez has 5% support of Republicans.  Independents support Republican Harrell with 46% to Democrat Vasquez with 31%.

1^st  CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: STANSBURY LEADS GARCIA HOLMES BY 6%,

1^st Congressional Democrat US Representative Melanie Stansbury has a  48% to 42% lead over Republican candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes. The 6% gap between Stansbury and Garcia Holmes is much narrower than the most recent elections. Garcia Holmes lost the 2020 race to former Representative Deb Haaland by 16% points. In 2021, Deb Halland resigned from congress and  was appointed United State Interior Secretary by President Joe Biden.   Stansbury’s strongest support comes from Hispanics, who favor her 56% to 37%. She also has a wide lead among voters with a graduate degree  with 61% of those voters supporting  her.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1^st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Stansbury has the support of 45%  of males who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 48%.   Stansbury  has 51% of females who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 37%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Stansbury has the support of  56%  of Hispanics while Garcia Holmes  37% of Hispanics.  Garcia Holmes has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while Stanbury has 45%  of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Stansbury has 85% support of Democrats while Republican  Garcia Holmes   has 7% support of Democrats.   Republican Gracia Holmes has  87% support of Republicans while Democrat Stansbury  has 5% support of Republicans.  Independents support Republican Garcia Holmes with 42% compared to Democrat Stansbury with 39%.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific,  sample of 410  cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election.  All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% points.

3^rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: LEDGER FERNANDEZ LEADS MARTINEZ JOHNSON BY 18%

According to the Journal poll 2 ^st Congressional Democrat US Representative Teresa Leger Fernández has a commanding lead with  53% to 35% advantage over Republican candidate Alexis Martinez Johnson.  Although both candidates are Hispanic woman, it is Leger Fernández who has  shored up support from women, 61%, and Hispanics, 68%.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1^st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll,  Leger Fernández  has the support of 44% of males who said they will vote while  Martinez Johnson has 47%.  Leger Fernández has 61% of females who said they will vote while Martinez Johnson has 25%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Leger Fernández has the support of  68%  of Hispanics while  Martinez Johnson  24% of Hispanics.   Leger Fernández  has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while  Martinez Johnson has 42%  of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Leger Fernández   has 89% support of Democrats while Republican Martinez Johnson  has 2% support of Democrats.   Republican Martinez Johnson has  88% support of Republicans while Democrat Leger Fernández  has 6% support of Republicans.  Independents support Democrat Leger Fernández with 40% compared to   Republican Martinez Johnson with 31%.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific,  sample of 434  cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election. All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7% points.

The link to the full, unedited Albuquerque Journal article which include graphs is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544863/democrat-has-edge-in-race-for-us-house-seat.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

There is no doubt that 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Gabe  Vasquez and Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell has national implications. The control of the U.S. House will be determined by a handful of congressional seats around the country. As it stands, national polls have Republicans projected to win back the United States House.  The 2nd Congressional District just may turn out to be one of the brightest spots for Democrats in the nation come November 8.

The second and final long anticipated Albuquerque Journal  poll is in. It shows Democrat incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has a strong lead in the race and she is likely on her way to be elected to a second 4 year  term on November 8.  The Governors  support  amongst voters increase by 3% and her lead increased by 1% while Ronchetti’s support increased by 7% over the last Journal poll taken in August.  The Governor has maintained her core support of Hispanics and woman despite her opponent spending millions on some of the most negative and nasty false ads.

The final results of the Albuquerque Journal poll are:

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50%

Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti – 42%

Undecided – 5%

Libertarian Karen Bedonie – 3%

The link to the final Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

The poll was conducted from October 20 through October  27. The poll is based on a scientific, statewide sample of 1,254 voterswho cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8% points.

The August Journal poll was essentially identical and those results were:

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham – 47%

Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti – 40%

Undecided –  8%

Libertarian Karen Bedonie – 5%

The link to the August  Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527965/lujan-grisham-has-7point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

DATA DOWNLOAD

Among the political parties, Governor MLJ has 87% support of Democrats while Rochetti has support of 9% of Democrat. Among Republicans, Ronchetti has 88% support among Republicans and Gov. MLG has 5% support of Republicans. Amongst Independents, Gov. MLG has 42% support while Ronchetti has 37% support.

Among men, Gov. MLG has 46% support of men and Ronchetti has 46% support of men.  Among woman, Gov. MLG has 55% support and Ronchetti has 38% support.

Among Hispanics, Governor MLG has 62% support and Ronchetti has 30% support. Among Anglos, Governor MLG has 43% support while Ronchetti has 49% support.

As was the case with the August Journal poll, Gov.Lujan Grisham’s lead is due to her broad support among female voters and Hispanic voters.

According to the latest Journal poll, Hispanic women supported Lujan Grisham by an overwhelming margin with 65% saying  they planned to vote for Gov. MLG or had already done so,  and 29% said  they intended to support Ronchetti.

Ronchetti had strong support among Anglo men.  56% said the will be voting for  Ronchetti  and 35% said they were voting for  Lujan Grisham. White women were more narrowly split, but were slightly more likely to support Gov. MLG.

Educational levels were also found to have major differences.  The Journal poll found that  voters who graduated from college and those with graduate degrees said the were likely to vote for  Lujan Grisham than Ronchetti. Voters with some college experience and those with high school degrees, in contrast, were almost evenly split between Gov. MLG and Ronchetti.

The Journal poll found that 20% of independent voters polled  said they were still undecided which is  a much larger percentage than among Republicans and Democrats.

Voters in the Albuquerque metro area, the north central region and the Las Cruces/southwest New Mexico polled said they  were more likely to vote for Lujan Grisham while most voters surveyed in the conservative east side of the state said they will vote for  Ronchetti.

The part of the state where voters are  evenly divided between the two candidates was  the northwest corner, where the GOP stronghold of San Juan County is partially offset by Democratic-leaning McKinley and Cibola counties.

VOTER REGISTATION

According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows: Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,  Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %, No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %, Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 % Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

 FOLLOW THE MONEY

The 2022 Governor’s race will likely be the most expensive in state history. Lujan Grisham has reported raising more than $11.1 million for her reelection bid, while spending about $9.8 million of that amount. Ronchetti  has received more than $7.8 million in contributions, while spending roughly $5.3 million.

The New Mexico Governor’s race is considered as one of the most competitive of the 36 gubernatorial races nationwide.  Political  groups affiliated with national Democratic and Republican parties are  spending millions on  TV ads in New Mexico.  During the final 12 days until Election Day, outside groups are planning to spend more than $3 million on ads backing Lujan Grisham’s campaign and  outside groups are planning  on spending $1.4 million on Ronchetti’s behalf.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Governor Lujan Grisham is no doubt breathing a great sigh of relief with the latest Albuquerque Journal poll showing her leading by 8%   after the October 17-19  Trafalgar group poll gave Republican Mark  Ronchetti a 1%  lead in the race with 46.6%  of the vote compared to 45.5% for Governor  Michelle Lujan Grisham. The Trafalgar poll was the first and only  poll ever to show Ronchetti in the lead with nearly 3% margin of error.  The Telfalgar poll  was seriously defective with 58% of people who responded to the poll being  Anglo and only 31% were Hispanic.

Prior Trafalgar poll and as of October 11, there were 5 polls taken that showed Democrat Governor Lujan Grisham leading Republican Mark Ronchetti by as low of only 3% and as high as 16%. Averaging out all 5 of the previous polls reflected that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham polling average is 48.8% compared to Ronchetti’s 39.2%. Ronchetti never once surpass 40% to 43% in any of the polling which is essentially the Republican base in New Mexico. Lujan Grisham  busted the magic 50% plus one in only 1 polls.

In New Mexico, Democrats have the clear advantage with 44.6 % of the registered vote to Republicans with 30.8% of the vote. When it comes to New Mexico politics and statewide races, the old saying is so very true that “Republicans win when Democrats stay home”.  Republicans tend to have higher voter participation percentages out of sure survival instinct. The significance of the independent voters also cannot be overstated in that they represent 22.5% of all registered voters in the state.

RONCHETTI’S NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS

Ronchetti has severely attacked Gov. MLG  for high violent crime rates, her executive order allowing more than 700 inmates to be released early due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a $150,000 settlement with a former campaign spokesman.  The governor for her part have has defended her record by highlighting an improving state economy that has seen the state unemployment rate drop to 4.2% in September, the lowest in more than a decade but still among the highest in the nation.

During the last 3 weeks, Republican Mark Ronehetti has gone into “warp drive”  with vicious,  negative and even false campaign ads to attack Governor Lujan Grisham. The ads have become so pervasive with Ronchetti ads running two and three times, one right after the other. Given that Ronchetti is still running behind Gov. MLG  in the polls, he will probably ramp it up and  double down even further given who his campaign manager is.

Least anyone forgets, Jay McCleskey is Republican Mark Ronchetti’s campaign manager and political consultant. Jay McCleskey is the go-to guy for anyone who is Republican running for office willing to spend and do whatever it takes to win an election at any and all costs.  The only way McClesky knows how to win a race is to go negative and into the gutter.  Jay McCleskey is New Mexico’s version of Lee Atwater or Karl Rove, two of the most despicable right wing Republican bottom feeders and political consultants and strategists for the Republican Party.  McClesky is known for his negative slash-and-burn tactics to disparage and viciously malign Democrats at all levels and he has been very successful at it in New Mexico for the last 20 years making a very lucrative living.

HOME STRETCH

Nine days are left before the November 8 election and in any statewide race, nine days can be an eternity in politics to get out the vote. Voters have also seen an extreme ramping up of negative campaign ads that are even worse than what has been going on, especially from Republican Mark Ronchetti.

Early voting has already begun and reports are that  upwards of 16% have already voted.  Early voting turn out is considered high which likely favors Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.   If you have not already done so, please vote!

On October 27, after a lengthy 13 day jury trial that resulted in the conviction of one or 3 defendants charged in the heinous murder of 10-year old Victoria Martens, Second Judicial District Judge Cindy Leos sentenced Fabian Gonzales, age 38, to 37½ years in prison in the 2016 strangulation murder and dismemberment of 10-year-old Victoria Martens.  Gonzales was found guilty of 1 count of child abuse resulting in death, 7  counts of tampering with evidence and 1 count of conspiracy for his role in  Victoria’s killing.  The murder is considered the most horrific child abuse case in Albuquerque history given the age of the child and how she was dismembered and her body burned in a bathtub.

Gonzales did not speak at his sentencing hearing and showed no emotion as Judge Leos pronounced his sentence. Under his sentence, Gonzales could be eligible for parole after serving half his sentence provided he serves his sentence without further incidents while in prison with good behavior. Gonzales has been in jail for 5 years while awaiting trial and will be given credit for the time served against his sentence.

Judge Leos said she agreed with prosecutors that Gonzales was directly responsible for Victoria’s death.  Before passing his sentence Judge Leos said this:

“If it were not for Mr. Gonzales, there is no question in my mind that Victoria Martens would still be alive. …  He was the conduit for her death, and clearly the jury agreed with that. … [Gonzales] was aware of Jessica Kelly’s propensity for violence, as well as her paranoia, on the date that Victoria was ultimately murdered. …  I do not believe that his responsibility in Victoria’s death was remote.”

Judge Leos noted that Gonzales left Victoria alone with Kelley the day of the girl’s death, even though he was aware that Kelley was using methamphetamine and feeling increasingly paranoid.

During the October 27 sentencing hearing,  the Bernalillo County District Attorney  prosecutors asked Judge Leos to classify the child abuse charge as a serious violent offense saying without Fabian, Victoria would still be alive today. The designation would have ensured that Gonzales would serve at least 85% of that sentence instead of 50%. Judge Cindy Leos also felt the state failed to meet its  burden of proof that Gonzales acted violently, pointing to the fact that Gonzales was not in the apartment at the time of the murder as was evidence by Gonzales’ cell phone records.

TWO OTHERS CHARGED

In addition to Fabian Gonzales, two others were charge in the killing. Those two were Jessica Kelly, 37, and Victoria’s mother Michelle Martens.

Jessica Kelley, 37, pleaded no contest in 2019 to 6 felony charges, including reckless child abuse resulting in death and other charges in Victoria’s death. She was sentenced in April to 50  years in prison. As part of Kelley’s plea deal in the case, she agreed to testify against her cousin Fabian Gonzales.

https://www.koat.com/article/jessica-kelley-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/39851304

District Attorney Raul Torres negotiated a plea and disposition agreement with Michelle Martens, 41.  Michelle Martins plead guilty in 2018 to reckless child abuse resulting in death and she faces 12 to 15 years in prison. Her sentencing hearing is scheduled for November 10.

No one has actually been charged with the murder of 10 year old Victoria Martins.

GRUESOM DETAILS OF MURDER

During the trial of Fabian Gonzales, Jessica Kelley testified that on the day of Victoria Martin’s killing, she was left alone with the 10 year old child.  Kelley testified that she  was high on meth when a man she’s never met before walked in and killed the 10-year-old.

State prosecutors question Kelley about her actions on each day leading up to the day Victoria was murder. In the early morning hours of the day Victoria would later be killed, Kelley testified to being paranoid all day. On the day Victoria was killed, she claims Gonzales and Victoria’s mother, Michelle Martens, knew she was on meth when they left her alone with the 10-year-old.

Kelley testified for the first time of the unknown person who she claims killed Victoria. Kelley told state prosecutors that a man. well dressed,  she did not know walked uninvited into the apartment asking for “Favo” and then went into Victoria’s room, strangled the girl, and left.

Kelley testified

“[The man] said  ‘Fabian fucked up. He knows what he did, there’s a mess in there’ that me and Fabian have to clean up and if not, ‘it’s going to be our lives and my kid’s lives. ”

Kelley testified that after Victoria was killed, she walked into Victoria’s room and found the girl lying on her back, blue in the face and without a pulse. Kelley claims she waited for Gonzales to come home, then pulled her cousin aside to tell him what happened.

Kelley  told the jury:

“I don’t think he really believed me, because he was like, ‘For real cuz?! What the fuck!’ and I was like, ‘For real, what are we going to– we have to get rid of her body, like’ … and he said, ‘alright, we’ll take turns.”

At that point, Kelley claims Gonzales helped distract Michelle Martens from learning that Victoria was dead. She added that Michelle Martens never checked on her daughter before going to bed.

Kelley says that’s when Gonzales went into Victoria’s room and started dismembering the girl’s body.  She testified:

“He was cutting her in the middle of her chest. He was like, ‘we’ve gotta make it look like it’s not us!’ I was, ‘like what the?! Just get the fuck out of here, I’ll finish it.”

Kelley also admitted that after attempting to dispose of Victoria’s body, she planned on killing Gonzales and Martens with an iron because she was scared of going back to prison.

Gonzales for his part testified at his trial and he kept to his original story that Jessica Kelley acted alone. He testified  Kelley is the one who killed Victoria and tried to dispose of her body.

Court documents filed in the case  also revealed how Kelley told investigators she was high on meth, babysitting Victoria Martens when a man she didn’t know came into the apartment and killed the little girl. Kelley said she told her cousin, Fabian Gonzales, that Victoria was dead. Kelley told investigators she and Gonzales dismembered Victoria, then the pair put the little girl into a bathtub, set the child’s body on fire and tried to clean up the crime scene.

Court pleadings also show that the night of the killing, Kelley grabbed an iron and hit Victoria’s mother Michelle Martens in the forehead. Afterwards, Michelle Martens and Gonzales left the apartment, and  Kelley set Victoria on fire and then tried to run from police.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The postscript to this blog article contains a time line of events in the case.

DA RAUL TORREZ SPREADS BLAME TO APD IN MARTENS CASE

It was on June 29, 2018 that Bernalillo County District Torrez announced that the most egregious charges against the defendant Michelle Martens, including murder and rape, were dismissed.  The plea agreement Torrez negotiated was to one count of child abuse, recklessly caused, resulting in the death of a child under 12.  The plea agreement guarantees a 12 to 15-year sentence.

Michelle Martins is to be sentence on November 10, 2022.   Because Martens  cooperated and turned state’s evidence and given her significantly reduced mental capacity, there is a real chance the court will sentence her to 12 years and not the full 15 years.

Raul Torrez and his prosecutors also agreed that Michelle Marten’s crime would  not be classified as a “serious violent offense”, meaning she could see her sentence cut in half for good behavior and serve as little as 6 years if she is sentenced to 12 years.  Martens  will also  get credit for the 2 years of time already served because she was  in jail pending trial, so it is possible that Martens could be out of prison in 4 years.

APD  BOTCHED INVESTIGATION

The initial APD police investigation and reports alleged that it was Jessica Kelley that stabbed 9-year-old Victoria Martens and that Fabian Gonzales strangled her while Michelle Martens watched the murder. Part of the pretrial publicity that inflamed matters was the accusations that Victoria Martens had been raped, sexually assaulted and that the child had a communicable disease, all accusations that were proven false by further forensic investigation, the DNA evidence and the autopsy of the child.

Mark Earnest, Jessica Kelley’s defense attorney, announced that experts determined that contrary to the findings in the initial autopsy report, there was no evidence that Victoria was raped the night she was killed.  Earnest said this:

“In totality … three experts [who have] … over 100 years [of experience] … determined that no sexual assault took place. Despite that, early on, the autopsy report in this case indicated that there was sexual assault.”

According to reports, the unidentified person’s partial DNA sample was left on the little girl’s body and the person  has been indicted as a “John Doe” in order to toll the statute of limitations until the person is found and arrested for prosecution. District Attorney Raul Torrez said an unidentified man was retaliating against Fabian Gonzales when he went to Martens’ apartment and killed Victoria Martens.

District Attorney Raul Torrez took considerable heat and experienced tremendous public outcry regarding the plea agreement he  negotiated with the defendant Michelle Martens.  According to Torrez, the physical evidence and forensic evidence established the Defendant Martens and her boyfriend Fabian Gonzales, who was also charged with the murder, were not even present at the time of the child’s murder.

DA Torrez said APD officers did not have the psychological profile at the time of the initial investigation was completed and APD detectives thought they could “trust what Martens was telling them” when she admitted to the crime of killing her own child.

The state’s own forensic psychiatrist said Michelle Martins did not realize she was also incriminating herself when she talked to police.  The forensic psychiatrist Michael Welner, who worked with the District Attorney’s Office, said a combination of Martens’ passive and naive personality, the way officers presented themselves as on her side and the context of her daughter’s recent death, led Michelle Martins to admit to a crime she did not commit and admitting to having witnessed the crime she never saw.

Dr. Welner was quoted as saying:

“In the course of questioning her about specifics and going over details, the officers in the questioning revealed certain details within the case that Michelle later incorporated into her story. … Incorporating them into her story gave the impression of some legitimacy of what she was saying.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1191300/expert-martens-statements-to-police-were-contaminated.html

To complicate matters, Torrez announced in his June 29,  2018 press conference that a fourth yet unidentified defendant had been indicted as a “John Doe” for the child’s murder.

STUNNING ADMISSION

DA Raul Torres is quoted as saying during his June 29, 2018 press conference:

“With each new round of testing and each new piece of information, more and more doubt was cast on Michelle Martens’ direct involvement in the murder of her daughter Victoria … And we were forced to consider the possibility that Michelle Martens had falsely incriminated herself and [her boyfriend] Fabian Gonzales in this heinous act.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1191031/michelle-martens-pleads-guilty-to-child-abuse-faces-12-to-15-years.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/mother-of-victoria-martens-accepts-plea-deal-awaits-judge-s-approval/1274041779

Torrez announced that he removed the two original prosecutors from the case and assigned more experienced trial attorneys by saying:

“It was my sense that we needed to have a more experienced team involved and we need to have dedicated resources. … I’m not going to second guess at this point what information they had access to.”

With his words and actions, District Attorney Raul Torrez admitted he and his office at the very least made the classic mistake and engaged in a level of prosecutorial overzealousness by “over indicting” a case based on witness statements and confessions before all the physical and forensic evidence had been processed and reviewed by his office.

All to often, especially when DNA evidence is involved, witness’s statements are found to be false and contradicted by DNA evidence.

Many defendants have sat on death row based on false eyewitness testimony and even confessions only to be released years later because DNA proves they did not commit the crime. It was  on June, 2, 2016, the murder charges against Donovan Maez, 22 and Christopher Cruz were dismissed when eye witness testimony was proven to be false.

https://www.krqe.com/news/charges-dismissed-in-jaydon-chavez-silver-murder/1019769798

The decision to assign more experienced trial attorneys to the case and dedicate more resources was indeed very noble and absolutely necessary. The problem is that it took Torrez a full 18 months to come to that conclusion.  Torrez does not have to “second guess … what information they had access to” seeing as he admitted he knew within a few months after taking office there were real problems with the case, yet he publicly he acted like nothing was wrong until he had to come clean.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY RAUL TORREZ FOUND RECKLESS

District Attorney Raul Torrez in his various media interviews about the Victor Martens case  shared extensive details of the case and his office’s  prosecution strategy on the pending criminal prosecution against Fabian Gonzales and Jessica Kelley. During a January 4, 2019 pretrial motion hearing, District Judge Charles Brown determined District Attorney Raúl Torrez had been “reckless” in December 10, 2018 statements he made to the media about defendant Jessica Kelley’s absence of cooperation before her no contest plea.

Confidential sources  said at the time  that Raul Torrez resisted being called as a witness at the January 4, 2019 hearing before Judge Brown.  His public information officer testifying instead. Further, confidential sources are said the defense counsel for Fabian Gonzalez intend to call Raul Torrez to the stand to testify regarding his public statements.

On January 4, 2018, District Judge Brown said that Torrez should not have issued a December 10, 2018 statement at all. Judge Brown admonished Raul Torrez for the statement by stating from the bench in open court:

“I don’t know if it was [intentionally done] to deprive the defendant of a fair trial, or if the goal was to shift the light away from the District Attorney’s Office or to move light to the Albuquerque Police Department … I find it to be woefully inaccurate in its ambiguity. It could be interpreted in many ways – all of them positive to the District Attorney’s office, some to the detriment of others. The District Attorney also has an obligation to protect the due process right of the defendant. … [The District Attorney] … represents the state, which is everyone including the defendant and the defendant’s families … The District Attorney’s obligation is to the system.”

Torrez sharing details and prosecution strategy in the case that were later reported upon by the media may have resulted in a “clear and present danger of prejudicing the proceeding” which would be an ethical violation of the code of professional conduct for lawyers. The New Mexico Code of Professional Responsibility has a very specific rule that governs attorneys conduct and pretrial publicity, Rule 16-306 Trial Publicity.

The extended media interviews that Torrez did in the case no doubt ingratiated Torrez with the news media and gave him the publicity he coveted,  but Torrez did not help his cause in seeking justice for 10-year-old Victoria Martens.  Another problem posed is that Torrez discussed with the media in his many interview’s conclusions based on the evidence that should be decided by a jury, not the prosecutor in the case.

District Court Judge Charles Brown could just as easily refer Raul Torrez to the New Mexico Disciplinary Board for violations of the Code of Professional Conduct relating to pretrial publicity. Raul Torrez needs to take to heart the words of Judge Brown when he said:

“[DA Torrez] … represents the state, which is everyone including the defendant and the defendant’s families … The District Attorney’s obligation is to the system”.

Judge Brown essentially told District Attorney Raul Torrez his obligation is not just to inform the media that results in generating intense media coverage. Judge Brown made it clear to Torrez that his ethical obligation is to the entire criminal justice system and not just to the media and his own political image and future.

Another obligation of any prosecutor is to have faith in the jury system and do the best you can to prove your case with the evidence you have in a court of law and if there is not enough evidence then the investigating agency needs to be held accountable.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Given the initial botched investigation and prosecution of the Victoria Matins murder case, it was luck that anyone was in fact brought to justice. Justice has been served with the 50 year sentence of Jessica Kelley and the  37½ sentence of Fabian Gonzales.

Very little justice can be said to have been served with the plea agreement negotiated by DA Raul Torrez wherein Michelle Martens plead to 1 count of child abuse, recklessly caused, resulting in the death of a child under 12 with  the plea agreement guaranteeing her a 12 to 15-year sentence for her involvement in the death of her own child.

Then there is the matter of the “phantom” defendant killer that has yet to be identified and found by APD.  APD has yet to announce if any progress has been made in identifying the phantom killer. Justice will not be fully served for 10-year old Victoria Martens until  her killer is  actually identified and  brought to justice, but its far more likely than not the killer will never be found.

Links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2543843/fabian-gonzales-sentenced-to-37-5-years.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/jury-deliberates-in-fabian-gonzales-trial-over-victoria-martens-killing/

https://www.koat.com/article/jessica-kelley-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/39851304

https://www.koat.com/article/judge-accepts-plea-deal-in-jessica-kelley-case/25779971

https://www.koat.com/article/fabian-gonzales-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/41790774

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/fabian-gonzales-to-be-sentenced-for-role-in-death-of-victoria-martens/

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/jessica-kelley-to-take-stand-on-day-two-of-trial-on-victoria-martens-killing/

POSTSCRIPT

TIME LINE OF BOTCHED INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION

It was on August 24, 2016 that APD found the dismembered body of young Victoria wrapped in a blanket in a bathtub inside an apartment on Albuquerque’s west side.  The child’s mother Michelle Martin’s and  her then-boyfriend, Fabian Gonzales and his cousin, Jessica Kelley, were  all charged with  the child’s death. Much of what investigators believed happened the  night of the killing was based on what Michelle Martens told police in the days after her daughter was found dead.  Martens’ story changed several times, but the main the main thrust of her story remained the same and all three took part in drugging, raping, mutilating and ultimately killing Victoria.  It later was determined that  a combination of Martens’ passive and naive personality, the way APD officers presented themselves as being on her side and the context of her daughter’s recent death, all  led Michelle Martins to admit to a crime she did not commit and admitting to having witnessed the crime she never saw.

In September 2016, Michelle Martens, Jessica Kelly and Fabian Gonzales were indicted by then Bernalillo County District Attorny Kari Brandenburg on the charges of intentional abuse of a child resulting in death, aggravated criminal sexual penetration, murder and tampering with evidence.

In November 2016, Victoria Martens’ autopsy was released. The autopsy by the Office of the Medical Investigator found  that Victoria had a sexually transmitted disease.  The autopsy revealed that there are no drugs in Victoria’s system. Martens had told investigators that Victoria had been given meth the night she died.

On January 1,  2017 Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez was sworn into office for his first term and he took personal responsibility to review the case. Torrez expressed concerns over aspects of how the APD investigation and follow-up procedures were handled and consequently Torrez  formed a new team of investigators and prosecutors to take over the case.

In March,  2017  a  new  investigation began in the case and during the following months, investigators conduct hundreds of interviews. In May 2017, prosecutors also contacted a forensic psychiatrist to analyze statements Martens gave to police.

In June, 2017 forensic DNA testing revealed that a partial DNA sample found on Victoria’s back did not come from Fabian Gonzales. It was believed the sample was most likely from saliva, sweat or skin cells from another.

On June 29, 2018,  District Attorney Raul Torrez announced a plea agreement where Michelle Martens, Victoria’s mother, plead guilty to a lesser charge of reckless child abuse resulting in the death of a child under 12. Torrez also announced several charges against Fabian Gonzales were dismissed. Cellphone data provided proof that neither was home at the time of Victoria’s death. Torrez also revealed that the the DNA of another was  found on Victoria’s body and  investigators were now searching for a “mystery” fourth suspect. With the plea deal, Michelle Martens faces a possible sentence of 12-15 years, and with good time she could be out of jail within 6 to 7 years. She is scheduled to be sentenced November 10, 2022.

In September 2018, over the course of two weeks, twice District Court Judge Charlie Brown denied the state’s attempt to make a plea deal with Jessica Kelley on the grounds that there was insufficient evidence to support the plea.

January  4, 2019, District Attorney Raul Torrez  announced that the rape charge against Jessica Kelley were  dropped because expert forensic witnesses weren’t going to be able to support the idea that Victoria Martens was raped by Kelley.

On January 7, 2019, Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez reached a plea deal with Jessica Kelley just before her trial was set to begin wherein Kelley plead “no contest” to charges related to Victoria Marten’s death. As part of the plea deal, Kelley agreed to  testify in the case against Fabian Gonzales and in the case of State vs. John Doe, which is the case brought against the unidentified defendant by use of DNA.

On April 29, 2022, Judge Cindy Leos sentenced Kelley to 50 years in prison with 6 years suspended. Once Kelley is released from prison, she will be on probation for 5 years.

On August 1,  2022, after a 13 day trial  and testimony from 35 witnesses, a jury  found Fabian Gonzales  guilty of 1 count of child abuse resulting in death, 7  counts of tampering with evidence and 1 count of conspiracy.

On October 27, 2022, Fabian Gonzales was sentenced to 37½ years in prison for his involvement with the killing of 10 year old Victoria Martens.