On March 6, the New Mexico House of Representatives released a massive $959 million tax package. House Bill 547 is  nearly 70-pages long. The Omnibus Tax policy bill  offers a number of credits and relief for most taxpayers across the state but it falls short of Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s efforts to offer much larger rebate checks to state residents battling inflation and the after-effects of COVID-19.

The House Taxation and Revenue Committee, chaired by Rep. Derrick Lente, D-Sandia Pueblo, voted 9-5 to approve the bill on a  party-line vote, with all  Democrats voting in favor and Republicans in opposition, before it was released to the public and Lente held a press conference on the bill.  House Bill 547  would provide $300 rebates for New Mexico taxpayers, further reduce the state’s gross receipts tax rate, increase alcohol taxes and expand a child tax credit so that parents could get up to a $600 per child tax break.

House has been in the works for a number of weeks. It is a consolidation of more than a dozen different tax proposals.  The ultimate goal is to use the state’s $3.6 Billion surplus from oil an gas  revenues to make New Mexico’s tax code more progressive in reducing overall taxation in the state.

DEVIL IN THE DETAILS

The major provisions of House Bill 547 are as follows:

NEW TAX BRACKETS: House Bill 547 would create 2  new tax brackets in the state’s personal income tax system including a new top tax  bracket of 6.9% which is an  increase  from the current 5.9% top bracket. The top tax bracket would apply to income over $500,000 per year for married couples filing jointly. Those who fall in the highest taxable income bracket of  married couples filing jointly who are earning $500,000 or more  will see an increase from 5.9% to 6.9% in tax payouts.

REDUCED REBATE CHECKS:  Rebate checks of $300 for individual taxpayers and $600 for married couples are provided for in the House Bill 547. The $300 are less than half the $750 rebate amount that Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham proposed. About $440 million, half of the initial cost of the tax package, would go toward issuing rebates issued to all New Mexicans who filed tax returns in 2021, perhaps by as soon as this spring.

According to  Rep. Derrick Lente, D-Sandia Pueblo, the bills sponsor,  the size of the rebates were scaled back during  legislative negotiations because lawmakers have $1 billion to enact tax changes under a $9.4 billion budget bill approved by the House last month which is  still awaiting final approval in the Senate. “  Lente claims the governor’s initial plan  would have completely extinguished the legislatures ability to do anything tax-wise for the state.

LOW INCOME TAX REBATES: A low-income tax policy component is included  that offers a series of tax rebate exemptions for individuals, those over 65, blind residents and children.

RURAL HEALTH CARE CREDIT: A rural health care practitioner credit for up to $5,000 for physicians, dentists, podiatrists and other medical professionals and up to $3,000 for pharmacists, dental hygienists, nurses and midwives and other medical professions is provided.

CHILD INCOME TAX CREDIT: A child income tax credit, depending on the gross income of the taxpayer, of up to $600 per child is provided. House Bill 547 provides Child Income Tax Credit of up to $600 for low income families, which is an increased from $175,  and $400 to $200 for higher earners. President Joe Biden increased  the federal child tax credit during the pandemic and government studies found it  reduced childhood poverty. The increased federal credit has now  disappeared with the pandemic.

ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCOME TAX CREDITS: A refundable electric vehicle income tax credit of $2,500 for every electric vehicle purchase or $4,000 for households under 200%  of the federal poverty level is provided.  An additional $300 credit would be allowed for car-charging equipment and installation.

ALCOHOL TAX: House Bill 547 contains an alcohol tax provision that would raise the tax on beer, wine and spirits by 15 cents per gallon.  Local microbreweries, distilleries and wineries would be exempted from the tax hike. The increased alcohol tax would generate close to   $36 million by the 2025 budget year for a new state fund. The new  fund would be used to pay for expanded alcohol treatment and prevention programs, as well as support for victims of alcohol-related crimes including domestic violence. At 86.6 deaths per 100,000 people in 2020, New Mexico has the nation’s highest alcohol-related death rate.  There have been some lawmakers have during the 2023 legislative  session  an even bigger  alcohol tax hike aimed at reducing consumption.  All increases in the alcohol tax have been effectively  opposed by alcohol industry lobbyists  who argued such a policy would hurt local New Mexico businesses.  Jimmy Bates of Premier Brewing Company told the committee  the tax could increase the cost beer by  as much as 37% in taxes for beer alone.

CORPORATE TAX:  Currently there are two corporate tax rates: 4.8% and the 5.9%. House Bill 547 would make the corporate tax a flat 5.9%.

CAPITAL GAINS TAX:   Capital Gains Tax from the sale of stocks and businesses  would be increased.  House Bill 547 proposes that the  40% deduction on unearned income be capped at $2500, bringing New Mexico  in-line with 41 other states.

NO TAX  “PYRAMIDING” PROPOSAL

What is glaring from reading House Bill 547 is the widely discussed  proposed tax exemption for accountants, architects and other professional services that had been proposed as a way to reduce tax “pyramiding,” or taxes being levied several times on the same goods or services.  The tax “pyramiding” legislation has bipartisan support and the Governor’s support. The tax pyramiding provision proposal has drawn fierce opposition from Albuquerque and other New Mexico cities and counties, however, as city officials argued it would reduce their revenue streams and complicate efforts to hire more police officers.

DEMOCRATS DEFEND TAX PACKAGE

During the  March 6 news conference announcing House Bill 547, House Taxation and Revenue Committee Chairman  Representative Derrick Lente, D-Sandia, said the process of putting together HB 547 included combining some of the best elements of roughly 50 separate tax policy bills that came into play during this year’s 60-day legislative session. He said all committee members and the Legislative Finance Committee analysts played a role in shaping the bill.

Representative Derrick Lente had this to say about HB 547:

“The tax rebates are only a small portion of the entire tax omnibus bill here. At this point in time, what’s in a tax package is that if passed, as is — New Mexicans would receive, if they filed taxes in 2021, they would receive a rebate of $300 for a single filer and $600 for those that are married. Another part of it is that it provides tax decreases for a number of our middle- and lower-income tax brackets that will receive and enjoy that benefit of a reduced tax rate.

It also reduces the total tax rate within the state another .5%. So, if you look at that, in addition to the point to the quarter percent tax rate that was reduced last year, it’s a three-quarter of a percent tax rate reduction in GRT, which is going to be huge for the state of New Mexico,” he continued. “We also look at ensuring that alcohol is paying their fair share to help encourage and provide resources for programs that help with alcoholism and substance abuse issues. We look at other aspects of childcare tax credits that have been increased—a number of things that help working families throughout New Mexico.”

“We’re trying to be creative and yet responsible in giving back dollars to hardworking New Mexicans—But in doing so, we want to make sure that if this is generational income we’re working with now, we want to make sure we’re creating generational outcomes for those in the way that we use this money for tax purposes and tax policy. “

The tax proposal fails to meet Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s $1 billion tax relief plan from the state’s $9.4 billion budget — $750 for single filers and $1,500 for joint filers. Lente said this:

“As a committee, we were given $1,000,000,000 of tax capacity to work with, and so had we accepted the proposal by the governor of $750, that would have completely extinguished and gone over our budget of $1,000,000,000 just by providing those tax rebates to New Mexicans.”

House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque Martínez  for his part said during the committee hearing lawmakers had to bring various tax policy bills together into one package. Otherwise, he said “it’s almost impossible to keep track of how it impacts the capacity of House Bill 2”,  the state operating budget legislation.

Democrats on the committee defended the tax package. They all contended  it will help New Mexicans across the state by offering tax exemptions for lower- and middle-class earners, child income tax credits for eligible taxpayers and also will drop the state’s gross receipts tax by .5%.

House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque insisted the proposed tax package would help businesses while defending the process used to bring the bill forward. Martínez said this:

“It’s a small number but it’s a lot of money. … I think this is very good for business. …There’s nothing in here that’s not fully-vetted, fully-baked and fully-fried.”

During the  March 6 news conference announcing House Bill 547, House Taxation and Revenue Committee Chairman  Rep. Derrick Lente, D-Sandia Pueblo had this to say about House Bill 547: 

We believe this affects positive change for the working families of New Mexico. … [I predict  families]  making the state’s median household income of about $54,000 per year [will]  see about $200 in yearly tax savings from the gross receipts tax cut alone.”

To those who might face a tax increase under the personal income tax code changes, Lente suggested that doctors, engineers and other high-wage earners could afford the increase.  Lente  also said the proposed gross receipts tax reduction that would take the state’s base tax rate on goods and services from 5% to 4.375% , starting in July 2024,  would be a boon for businesses.

Representative Lente  acknowledged that Governor Lujan Grisham  is not on board with the cut in rebates and he said:

“We scaled that back to the $300 per single filer, $600 per married couple filer, which brought our total cost to about a little under $500 million, which will then allow us to do these other creative tax structure policy changes. …  She’s not OK with that. … There was discussion that their sweet spot, I believe, was going to be at $500 per single and $1,000 for married couple. That being said, we are a couple hundred dollars away from that goal. … But nonetheless, we think that the initiatives as we target rural health care, as we target other initiatives in this tax package, far outweigh those one-time payments.”

Amber Wallin,  the executive director of the Albuquerque-based advocacy nonprofit New Mexico Voices for Children, said this  after the committee vote:

“[House Bill 547] is a big win for the whole state. It is really smart tax policy that will improve economic opportunity and equity for New Mexico families, workers, and communities with improvements to the Child Tax Credit, personal income taxes, and a rebate for low-income earners.  …  All of these things improve fairness in the tax code and level the playing field. ”

Wallin  called the Gross Receipts Tax  cut “significant” and said it is one that will “benefit all residents and businesses in the state.”

OPPOSITION AND DISAPPOINTMENT EXPRESSED

The 5  Republicans on the House Taxation and Revenue Committee voted against House Bill 547. The  Republicans said the bill has some  positive elements within it, they also said it does not specifically help small businesses or address job growth initiatives that are necessary to help businesses still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. Rep. Jim Townsend, R-Artesia said this:

“What we are doing is helpful to  [New Mexicans]  but it’s putting a Band-Aid on the issue [of taxation.]”

During the March 6  meeting of the House Taxation and Revenue Committee Representative Jason Harper, R-Rio Rancho,  said that House Bill 547 could mean a tax increase for small businesses who pay taxes under the personnel income tax code. Harper  lamented that Democrat sponsors  of the bill omitted a proposed tax exemption for accountants, architects and other professional services that had been proposed as a way to reduce tax “pyramiding,” or taxes being levied several times on the same goods or services. Harper said this during the hearing:

“Are we just talking the talk or are we serious about real reform?”

Not at all surprising, Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Terri Cole called  House Bill 547 very  disappointing. Cole described the bill  as the latest in a string of measures backed by the Democratic-controlled Legislature that make it harder for businesses to stay open in New Mexico. Cole said this:

“The last thing we need is capital flight out of New Mexico.”

Governor  Lujan Grisham’s  spokeswoman Maddy Hayden said House Bill 547  falls short of the governor’s expectations and Hayden said this:

“The governor has made it clear to leadership that hard-working New Mexico families deserve more than $300. … She will continue to fight to get more dollars in the pockets of New Mexicans, and fully expects the Legislature to boost that number up to at least $500 for single filers.”

The links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.koat.com/article/proposal-tax-bill-million/43240240

March 7  New Mexico Political Report  “Lawmakers unveil massive omnibus tax policy bill” at  https://nmpoliticalreport.com/

https://www.abqjournal.com/2579039/a-tax-package-unveiled-at-roundhouse-includes-300-rebates-expanded-tax-credits-and-overhaul-of-personal-income-tax-code.html

 https://www.scdailypress.com/2023/03/07/lawmakers-unveil-massive-omnibus-tax-policy-bill/

https://www.kunm.org/local-news/2023-03-06/massive-nm-tax-bill-contains-smaller-direct-payments

COMMENTARY AND ANALSIS

New Mexico in the Top 15 highest tax rate states in the nation, placing it at a distinct competitive disadvantage with such neighboring states as Texas, which has no state income tax.  State income tax reform has been long overdue and this years  $3.6 Billion dollar surplus provides an unprecedented opportunity to offer substantial tax relief for small businesses, the middle class and for economic development. Simply put, House Bill 547 falls short and needs more work.

House Bill 547 has some very positive elements to it including expanding the state’s child tax credit to up to $600 per child, the $300 rebates to residents, extending  the sunset date on the military retirement pay tax exemption to 2031, adopting  a “single sales” factor apportionment for corporate taxes that could incentivize multi-state companies to expand and hire more people in New Mexico, and reducing  the state’s gross receipts tax base rate by 0.625%.

House Bill 547  also has some very negative elements to it including  overhauling  the personal income tax code so that many small-business owners who file personal income tax returns will pay higher taxes by creating two new tax brackets, including a new top bracket of 6.9%.  It also penalizes personal savings, investment and wealth creation by increasing taxes on all capital gains.

Representative Derrick Lente, D-Sandia, said the process of putting together HB 547 included combining some of the best elements of roughly 50 separate tax policy bills that came into play during this year’s 60-day legislative session.  However House Bill 547 totally ignores and omits the well crafted proposal of Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Rio Rancho  Republican  Representative  Jason Harper, R-Rio Rancho as embodied in House Bill 367 which would lower the gross receipts tax  and  address pyramiding which is when taxes are levied several times on the same goods or services. The tax exemption is a sure way to reduce tax “pyramiding” or taxes being levied several times on the same goods or services.

House Democrats essentially caved into the New Mexico Municipal League and the larger cities of Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces by omitting the  much-needed proposed tax exemption for accountants, architects and other professional services that would reduce “tax pyramiding. ” There is little doubt the  provision would have provided significant relief to small businesses. Several lawmakers have worked on this issue for a number of years and it has bipartisan support and the governor’s endorsement in this session, yet that is ignored in House Bill 547.

The final version of  House Bill 547 will likely  advance quickly to the House floor for a final vote  after passing the House Taxation and Revenue Committee. There is no doubt that it will face heavy opposition from Republicans and additional scrutiny and possible changes  in the Senate in the final days of the 2023 Legislative  session. One change that should be included by the Senate are the   tax  “pyramiding”  prevention provisions.

Democrats in the 2023 legislative session hold a 45-25 majority in the House and a 27-15 edge in the Senate and this year’s session is a 60 day session.  The session ends March 18.  With just 10 days  left of the 2023 legislative session, Senate and House Democrats need to get their act together and  move as quickly and as aggressively as possible to get a final votes on all of their pending legislation in order to avoid embarrassing Republican filibusters as what happened last yeat. If not, they will have only themselves to blame.

 

Below is a guest opinion column submitted by Dr. Michael Baron for publication on www.PeteDinelli.com. The article is a very in depth, researched and straightforward  discussion of gun violence in the United States concluding with recommendations on what laws are needed to curb gun violence and mass shootings. It is being published now because the 2023 New Mexico legislature is in session.  There are numerous pending gun control bills pending that have been reported upon in this blog with a discussion of a possible special session being convened to consider an Omnibus Violent Crime and Gun Control Act. The article has been forwarded to all New Mexico House and Senate members  and Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

Michael Baron, Ph.D. has been a licensed psychologist in the state of New Mexico since 1979. Born in Brooklyn, New York, he received his B.A. in Psychology in 1972 from Syracuse University, and his Ph.D. in 1978 from the University of New Mexico. In private practice since 1980, Dr. Baron fancies himself a “hardnosed humanist,” and has provided individual child and adult, couple, and family therapy services (www.michaelbaronphd.com). After about half a million miles consulting with New Mexico’s schools (1981-2011), he jettisoned his “Road Warrior” role, expanding his home-based practice in Corrales. Since 2017 Dr. Baron has written a column, “Open Mike,” touching upon the ridiculous and the sublime for the New Mexico Psychological Association’s quarterly online newsletter. The Columbine shooting in 1999 led Dr. Baron to become an advocate ever since to reduce gun violence in America. After needing to replace his office furniture, Dr. Baron’s love of artistic creation was resurrected, has been in a number of art shows since (www.artofdowel.com), and featured on the cover of America Psychologist (http://www.artofdowel.com/bio#images-2).

EDITOR’S DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this guest column are those of Dr. Michael Baron and do not necessarily reflect those of the www.petedinelli.com blog. Dr. Baron has not been paid compensation to publish the guest column and has given his consent to publish his column on www.PeteDinelli.com.

Following is Dr. Baron’s guest opinion column:

“Please envision the following headline:

“TODAY’S MASS SHOOTING IN THE UNITED STATES: 463 victims: 134 dead, 329 injured”

 That could be any newspaper’s headline, except these tragedies are geographically distributed throughout the country, hardly garnering any media attention. In 2021, 48,832 firearm deaths (of which 26,320 are suicides) occurred in the United States according to provisional data from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention and about 120,000 firearm injuries occur each year on average in the US. For comparison’s sake, in 2021, while we had 48,832 firearm deaths, Japan had only ONE shooting death.  Our death rate is over 500 times greater than theirs per 100,000. It is no coincidence our private gun ownership rate is also 500 times greater than theirs per 100,000 (total guns owned: US 393,300,000, Japan 377,000).

Mass shooting deaths, incidents where four or more people are killed or injured, totaled 513 in 2020, accounting for a very small percentage of firearm deaths: 1%. All told, with over 45,000 deaths and 120,000 injuries each year, it is safe to say one American “takes a bullet” every three minutes, and as many die from a bullet in 14 months as American soldiers died in the Vietnam War over 20 years, about 58,000.

The links to source materials for review are here:

https://www.thetrace.org/2022/09/gun-deaths-cdc-2021-record/#:~:text=More%20than%2026%2C000%20people%20took%20their%20lives%20with,more%20exposure%20to%20firearms%2C%20especially%20among%20first-time%20owners

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/pdfs/mm7140a4-H.pdf

https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news-releases/2020/december/study-shows-329-people-are-injured-by-firearms-in-us-each-day-but-for-every-death-two-survive

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1319230/japan-number-gun-fatalities-shooting-incidents/

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gun-ownership-by-country

https://www.dailywire.com/news/us-had-a-record-number-of-mass-shootings-in-2020

PREVALENCE OF GUNS IN THE United States

In 2023, it is estimated we now exceed 400 million guns.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fact-there-are-400-million-privately-owned-guns-us-72936

There are 53,267 gun shops and only 15,876 Macdonald’s in the U.S.

https://robarguns.com/gun-sales-in-the-us-by-state

Since World War II ended, the number of guns in the U.S. has increased by a factor of 8.5: from 47 to about 400 million guns, while the population has increased by a factor of 2.4: from 140 to 333 million. A bar graph of the statistics can be found here:

https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/how-many-guns-are-there-in-america/

About 81 million Americans (31% of all adults) own an average of 5 guns each.

https://americangunfacts.com/gun-ownership-statistics/

Americans own nearly half (46%) of all civilian-owned guns worldwide, and we own more per capita (120.5 guns per 100 population) than any other country on earth. Yemen is #2 at 52.8 per 100.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/03/americas/us-gun-statistics/index.html

With such staggering numbers, hope of reduced firearm tragedies may seem pie in the sky, but some interventions show promise.

GUN SAFETY LEGISLATION: LET EVIDENCE, NOT PARTISANSHIP, DICTATE POLICY

 In a December15, 2022 email to state legislators of different political party affiliations, I noted the Albuquerque Journal cited New Mexico’s gun fatality rate as being among the nation’s highest.  I added as follows:

“Among seven economically advantaged countries we Americans are extreme outliers with 56.2 firearm deaths per million people ages 1-19 versus an average of 2.0 for the other six countries combined….[Y]ou are committed to make a difference for New Mexicans of all ages. Please let the data and not party affiliation guide you.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/2556861/gun-safety-bills-could-spark-debate-at-roundhouse-amid-rise-in-firearm.html)

I closed by saying, “The state’s firearm deaths totaled over a thousand between 2020 (481) and 2021 (562). You have the time-limited opportunity to pass legislation which may help reduce these horrific numbers. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, so legislation which holds promise to reduce firearm deaths does not preclude also working to reduce alleged contributors to this, i.e., drug addiction, firearm trafficking, and expanding mental heath treatment. We can always change the law; we cannot bring back a lost life.”

Legislation which also upholds the 2nd Amendment is often seen as the heaviest challenge but can reduce these horrific statistics.

 REPEAL OR REVISE THE SECOND AMENDMENT

I believe Thomas Jefferson would support repealing the Second Amendment. Mass shooters Harris and Kleibold, Crimo, Ramos, Lanza, and Holman are NOT part of a “well-regulated militia.”  It is not at all likely that even Jefferson could anticipate in 1816 that a one-shot-load-and-reload musket might be replaced someday, maybe not with automatic rifles capable of shooting at hundreds of people in a matter of minutes, nor perhaps with a future rifle capable of shooting a nuclear mini-warhead, but “as new discoveries are made…institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times,” and that “constitutions” are not “too sacred to be touched” and revised.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7148468-some-men-look-at-constitutions-with-sanctimonious-reverence-and-deem

Not one gun-related murder has occurred in Iceland from 2007 until at least 2018. No doubt Icelanders are surviving fairly well under whatever “tyranny” their government has thrown their way for the past 16 years. Likewise, Japan had only one firearm death in 2021. We might well reduce the tyranny of seemingly unbridled gun violence by redefining what a well-regulated militia really is.

Frances DeBenedictus, past Executive Director of Gay Officer’s Action League (GOAL) in New York City, eloquently addressed this on Facebook in July 2022 when she posted:

“Two main groups of soldiers fought on the American side during the Revolutionary War. One group was the ‘well regulated militia,’ made up citizens who were ready to fight in case of an emergency. And, the other was the Continental Army. The commonly used weapon carried by the Continental Army was the ‘Brown Bess’ muzzle-loading smoothbore musket. This musket was used to fire a single shot ball, or a cluster style shot which fired multiple projectiles giving the weapon a ‘shotgun’ effect.

 I have no objection to civilians obtaining a license to buy this weapon or similar weapons today. We no longer need ‘well regulated militias’ because now (247 years later) we have three military departments (Army, Navy and Air Force) and two reserve components; the United States Army Reserve and the Army National Guard.  No American citizen should be allowed to own any weapons that would allow them to outgun the police or fire more than 70 bullets in minutes.”

Failing a repeal or revision of the Second Amendment, one which reinterprets a “well regulated militia,” we run the risk of the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Boogaloo Boys, the Three Percenters, or any vigilante group forming overnight and claiming status as a “well regulated militia” when they are not at all regulated.

POLITICAL RHETORIC MAY BE INCREASING GUN VIOLENCE

Over a 35-year period, during the five administrations between Presidents Ronald Regan and Barack Obama (1981-2016), there was an average of 44 mass shooting victims per year (22 deaths and 22 injuries). It appears the first three years of Donald Trump’s administration (2017-2019) witnessed a nearly 900% increase in total deaths and injuries in mass shootings, per year, to 377 annually (108 deaths and 269 injuries).

The average of 3 national online publications or news sources was used: Mother Jones, Time, and Wikipedia.  Following are the statistics for death and injuries gleaned from each source:

MOTHER JONES NEWS OUTLET STATISTICS

Deaths from gun violence from 1981 to 2016 per year: 18 (643 total over 35 years)

Deaths from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year:  99 (296 total over 3 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 1891 to 2016 per year: 19 (660 total over 35 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year: 283 (843 total over 3 years)

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/

TIME NEWS OUTLET STATISTICS

Deaths from gun violence from 1981 to 2016 per year: 18 (643 total over 35)

Deaths from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year:  98 (293 total over 3 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 1981 to 2016 per year: 20 (689 total over 35 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year: 233 (700 total over 3 years)

https://time.com/4965022/deadliest-mass-shootings-us-history/

WIKIPEDIA RESEARCH CITE

Deaths from gun violence from 1981 to 2016 per year: 29 (1,017 total over 35 years)

Deaths from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year: 128 (383 total over 3 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 1981 to 2016 per year: 28 (993 total over 35 years)

Injuries from gun violence from 2017 to 2019 per year: 292 (875 total over 3 years)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States

One needs to tread delicately when discussing politics, rhetoric, and violence, and correlation is not causation, but a nearly nine-fold increase in mass shooting victims raises the question: Can political rhetoric impact others’ behavior?

ABC News found that former Republican President Donald Trump’s name was invoked in 54 cases of violence, threats, and alleged assaults.  “ABC News could not find a single criminal case filed in federal or state court where an act of violence or threat was made in the name of President Barack Obama or President George W. Bush” during the previous 16 years.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blame-abc-news-finds-17-cases-invoking-trump/story?id=58912889

THE TRUMP FACTOR

During campaign rallies before the 2018 midterm elections, President Trump repeatedly warned that America was under attack by immigrants heading for the border, and he said, “You look at what is marching up, that is an invasion.”  Nine months after Trump’s comments, a 21-year-old white man was accused of opening fire in a Walmart in El Paso, killing 20 people and injuring dozens more after writing a manifesto railing against immigration and announcing that “this attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/04/us/politics/trump-mass-shootings.html

Earlier that year, 49 people died and 48 were injured after the mass shooting in Christchurch, New Zealand. In that shooter’s 74-page manifesto he cited Trump by name as a “symbol of renewed white identity and common purpose.”

In a review of domestic extremism 1994-2021, it was reported that “data shows a surge in homegrown incidents not seen in a quarter-century,” especially 2015-2020, corresponding to Trump’s presidential campaign and administration. In the first 21 years the Center for Strategic and International Strategy kept data (1994-2014), there were 558 incidents of domestic terrorism (26.6 per year). In the next six years (2015-2020), incidents rose 155% to 67.8 per year, with an all-time high of 113 incidents in 2020. In January 2021 alone, there were 15 incidents, including the January 6^th insurrection at The Capitol. From 2015 through 2020, “far-right” incidents (267) outnumber “far-left” (66) by a 4-to-1 ratio.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2021/domestic-terrorism-data/

Former President Trump provided what some saw as cover for white supremacist groups when he said in 2017, after the Charlotteville protest when a white supremacist drove a car into a crowd killing people, “Very fine people on both sides.”  Trump was seemingly defending white nationalist protesters.

During a presidential debate (2020), after his unwillingness to denounce white supremacy, Trump encouraged the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by,” and a few months later, at Trump’s invitation, the Proud Boys and other paramilitary groups took part in the January 6^th insurrection.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/30/918483794/from-debate-stage-trump-declines-to-denounce-white-supremacy

Recall the journalist who was body slammed by Montana Congressman Greg Gianforte in 2018. Trump said,  “Any guy that can do a body slam — he’s my kind of guy,” he was reported to have said, “to cheers and laughter from the crowd.” And added: “He’s a great guy, tough cookie.”

https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-ap-top-news-elections-montana-fce5e4b518684ce1bec91c744974c2d4

Fast forward a year later. It was reported that,  “A Montana man charged with assaulting a 13-year-old boy who refused to remove his hat during the national anthem believed he was doing what President Donald Trump wanted him to do, his attorney said.”

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/news/man-who-body-slammed-boy-over-anthem-snub-convinced-trump/article_30fda779-64c3-5d93-ba33-6a7cec5acce1.html?fbclid=IwAR2ku4hj52jClaCKMTOBVSQjZu-SBUtiVonHnJT82D2_DISIorLgRIdw_-s

Also in 2019, in Los Lunas, New Mexico, a man was charged with threatening the ACLU on social media. On Facebook he wrote: “You bitches want a Physical Civil War. I’m Game. I’ll Bring My Farm Implements and They Will Never find your bodies. AND for Fun I’ll BURN Every ACLU office in the State. GO TRUMP GO!”

https://reason.com/volokh/2020/01/17/prosecution-for-threatening-aclu-employees-may-go-forward/

The man’s attorney said it was a mental health issue. More recently in New Mexico (2022), a Republican candidate for the State House of Representatives, who received 26% of the vote, hired gunmen and was himself involved in shooting at the homes of four prevailing Democratic candidates. Buying into Trump’s “Stop the Steal” mantra, he attributed his defeat to a “rigged election.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/17/us/new-mexico-shootings-solomon-pena-what-we-know/index.html

In October 2020, just before the election, regarding the plot to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Trump offered the plot was “maybe a problem, maybe it wasn’t.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-gretchen-whitmer-kidnapping-plot-michigan-2020-election-b1377654.html

Not exactly a full-throated repudiation of threats of violence. Nearly two years later, after Trump lost his reelection bid, two men, members of a right-wing Michigan paramilitary group, were convicted of conspiring to kidnap Whitner and conspiring to obtain a weapon of mass destruction.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/2-men-guilty-plotting-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-rcna44430

In 2023 David DePape was arrested for the attack of the husband of Rep. Nancy Pelosi, R-CA.  DePape had a Facebook account which included links to videos produced by the My Pillow CEO, Mike Lindell, which falsely claimed that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Republican incumbent Donald Trump in favor of his Democratic rival Joe Biden.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/28/paul-pelosi-nancy-pelosi-attack-david-depape

If government leaders have even the pretense of trying to work together for all that ails us, including the scourge of gun violence, they need to put their guns away, at least their verbal guns. Trump logs in with over one hundred less-than-complimentary names for others, even members of his own party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nicknames_used_by_Donald_Trump

A similar google search, “nicknames used by” Joe Biden or Barack Obama yielded nothing, other than nicknames they are called. Demonization of “the other” starts with words.

Political rhetoric, which can serve to motivate others to become violent, is not confined to one politician. Rep. Steve King, R-IA, is a longtime member of Congress with an even longer history of racism and associating with white supremacists at home and abroad. In 2019, King was stripped of his committee appointments after telling The New York Times: ‘White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization—how did that language become offensive?’”

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/report/running-on-racism-far-right-congressional-candidates-in-the-2020-elections-and-those-who-lean-that-way/

US Representative  Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA, speaking about fellow Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashid Tlaib, both US citizens, stated, “I really want to go talk to these ladies and ask them what they are thinking, and why they are serving in our American government. … They really should go back to the Middle East.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-aud-nw-marjorie-taylor-greene-social-media-statements-20210204-cihvw64f5vdodm7ni72svunnui-story.html

US Representative Paul Gosar, R-AZ was severely criticized “for sharing a violent animated video on his social media that was edited to depict him killing Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and attacking President Joe Biden.”

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-11-17/paul-gosar-censured-removed-from-committees-over-violent-post-about-democrats

“The fear of a mass shooting may be higher in those who are more likely to experience hate crimes. The Federal Bureau of Investigation says these crimes are motivated by the perpetrators bias against a particular race, color, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability or gender.”

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2023/02/gun-violence-is-a-life-or-death-issue-we-need-to-act-like-it

Words are powerful tools, for good and for evil. They can elevate and heal or they can debase and destroy. America has prided itself on being the open-armed “melting pot,” that our differences make us stronger, that diversity and tolerance are hallmarks of our democracy. However, politicians who not only provide safe havens for, but actually promote, racism and intolerance are insidiously complicit in contributing to fear and rejection of “the other,” of people “who aren’t like me.” In so doing, acts of violence increase. Our elected leaders need to unabashedly repudiate racism, prejudice, and violence. The rhetoric and vitriol of hate needs to be replaced by language that forges building bridges, which contributes to constructive problem-solving.

CONSTRUCTIVE PROBLEM-SOLVING DIALOGUE

What is the language of constructive problem-solving? Is there such a language? If there is such a language, it may well need to start with agreement on the facts, e.g., a statement of the problem upon which varying sides can agree, even if there may be later disagreement on proposed solutions to the problem.  Let’s at least agree there is a fire, and then we can decide whether the hook-and-ladder is needed to put it out.

Here is a succession of statements that might register agreement among discussants of different political persuasions:

(1) Children are our most vulnerable population.

(2) Death is the greatest harm that can occur to them.

(3) We favor reducing the incidence of death among our children.

(4) We agree if we were to rank order causes of death, not that we couldn’t or shouldn’t address all causes of death, but those which lead to more deaths might merit greater attention than those leading to fewer deaths.

(5) If our death rate due to certain causes of death among children (and adults) was, say, 5x, 50x, or 500x greater than the death rate by the same cause(s) in another country (or countries), we agree that it might be worth exploring what we may learn from that other country (or countries) so that we might substantially reduce our own (US) death rate.

(6) We agree to rely on epidemiological data from the Center for Disease Control or World Health Organization rather than less reliable sources.

It does not appear a heavy lift to have would-be problem-solvers agree to these half dozen statements. Let us say, for example, cancer was the leading cause of death among American children. “In 2021, it is estimated that 15,590 children and adolescents ages 0 to 19 will be diagnosed with cancer and 1,780 will die of the disease in the United States”.

https://www.cancer.gov/types/childhood-cancers/child-adolescent-cancers-fact-sheet

If in other countries the cancer death rate for children were significantly smaller, I think we would agree it would be advantageous to learn what they do to keep their death rates so low.

If in 2020 the greatest number of childhood deaths, ages 1-19, due to a singular cause (let us call it Cause A) in the US was 4,357 and all other causes of death led to fewer deaths, I think we might agree to focus on Cause A. And if Cause A contributed to over 45,000 deaths for children and adults combined, and another country reported fewer than a hundred total deaths due to Cause A, openness to learning from that country might be worthwhile.

Cause A, in 2020, which led to over 4,000 child deaths and in 2021 to over 48,000 total (child plus adult) deaths in the US, while Japan, in 2021, had only one such death, was…firearms.

https://www.kff.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/guntrol.png

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1319230/japan-number-gun-fatalities-shooting-incidents/

Can a constructive problem-solving discussion ensue, whether the cause were cancer or firearms? Efforts to reduce 1,780 cancer child deaths ought not trump efforts to reduce 4,357 firearm child deaths. When we have 500 times more firearm deaths per capita than another country, it is incumbent upon us to be open to learning how others do a far better job than we are doing in reducing or preventing such deaths.

By the way, here are some possible reasons why Japan’s firearm death rate is one of the world’s lowest: “For Japanese citizens to purchase a gun, they must attend an all-day class, pass a written exam, and complete a shooting range test, scoring at least 95% accuracy. Candidates will also receive a mental health evaluation, performed at a hospital, and will have a comprehensive background check done by the government. Only shotguns and rifles can be purchased. The class and exam must be retaken every three years.”

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gun-deaths-by-country

None of these requirements appear to infringe upon Second Amendment rights, and one could argue which is more arduous: Enduring the “hardship” of such requirements for the purchase and retention of a gun, or enduring the hardship of nearly 50,000 annual firearm deaths.

“MENTAL ILLNESS” IS NOT THE CULPRIT

 Don’t blame mental illness for firearm homicides. Suicides, sure, but not homicide.

“The vast majority of people with mental illness are not violent: 95-97 percent of homicidal gun violence is not carried out by individuals with a mental illness. However, suicide is often correlated with depression and is the number ten cause of death in adults nationwide (number three cause of death for youth in America). Firearm deaths associated with mental illness are nearly always suicides. A suicide attempt with a firearm results in death nearly 85 percent of the time, but more common means of attempting suicide—drug overdose and cutting—result in death less than 3 percent of the time. If mental illness were eliminated, gun violence in America would go down by just 4 percent.”

https://www.mhanational.org/gun-deaths-violence-and-mental-health

My own guess is that while mental illness may be implicated in only about 3-5% of homicidal gun violence, it’s presence in mass shooting killers is considerably higher. But, as was previously shown, mass shootings account for only about 1% of all firearm deaths. Greater accessibility of mental health services may have its greatest impact on reducing firearm suicides, which represent the majority, 54%, of all firearm deaths (26,520 of 48,832 deaths in 2021).

Our rates of mental illness are not significantly different than the rates in other countries. Ten years ago, our gun death rate, however, was reported in a UN Study to be 20 times the average of 31 other developed countries. Now that’s insanity.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/12/14/chart-the-u-s-has-far-more-gun-related-killings-than-any-other-developed-country/

ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN

Consider the following:

 “Gun massacres of six or more killed decreased by 37 percent for the decade the ban [on assault weapons] was active [1994-2004], then shot up 183 percent during the decade following its expiration.”

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/dem/releases/studies-gun-massacre-deaths-dropped-during-assault-weapons-ban-increased-after-expiration

“[G]uns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.”

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/

And, as we know, 376 good guys with guns in Uvalde were stymied by one guy with an AR-15 because it was an AR-15 and they felt helpless.

https://www.insider.com/376-officers-were-at-uvalde-elementary-school-over-hour-report-2022-7

After the 2012 Sandy Hook and 2018 Parkland mass shootings, both where an AR-15 was used, National Rifle Association chief Wayne La Pierre claimed, “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is with a good guy with a gun…. The NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research] study discredited the idea of the ‘good guy with a gun’ as a possible solution to gun violence.” Stanford University law professor John Donohue indicated their research “concluded that allowing citizens to carry handguns seems to increase violent crime 13 to 15 percent by the 10th year’ of the laws being enacted in the state.”

https://abcnews.go.com/US/bear-burden-gun-violence-costs-america-280-billion/story?id=80245349

Can homeowners protect themselves with a firearm other than an AR-15? Of course they can. When the technology evolves that a nuclear device could be deployed using a firearm, defending its sale under the pretense of “protection” would make as much sense: none at all. The ban which proved successful over a previous decade’s use might well prove successful once again. What do we risk by re-implementing the ban?

MORE “BAD GUYS” THAN “GOOD GUYS” WITH A GUN 

Again, 376 good guys with guns were stymied by one guy with an AR-15 in Uvalde. Conversely, one “good guy with a gun” Elisjsha Dicken, used his handgun to “neutralize” a 20-year-old gunman at an Indiana mall who fired two dozen rounds from his AR-15-style rifle. However, “There were at least 434 active shooter attacks in the US from 2000 to 2021, according to Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training  (ALERRT) data. Active shooter attacks were defined as those in which one or more shooters killed or attempted to kill multiple unrelated people in a populated place. Of those 434 active shooter cases, an armed bystander shot the attacker in 22 of the incidents. In 10 of those, the ‘good guy’ was a security guard or an off-duty police officer, ALERRT data showed. Having armed people at the scene who are not law enforcement members can create confusion and carry dire risks, according to a data analysis published in The New York Times.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/us/eli-dicken-indiana-mall-shooting-bystander/index.html

So, 12 of 434 or 2.7% of attackers were shot by armed bystanders who were neither security guards nor off-duty police officers. The other 97-98% were never interdicted by a “good guy with a gun.” Bottom line: Guns are rarely used to kill criminals or stop crimes.

Consider the following scenario: You, your spouse, and two children go to see “The Dark Night Rises” Batman movie at a multiplex theater in, let’s say, Aurora, Colorado. There are two theaters to choose from: One will have 100 “good guys” with their guns, the other theater prohibits firearms. Which do you choose? Which one feels safer?

The ALERRT data over two decades addressed an average of only 20 active shooter incidents a year in the U.S. In contrast, another study investigating 626 shootings in or around residences with gun owners, within 12-18 months in just three cities, may be more representative of the impact nationwide of “a good guy with a gun.” The study reported as follows:

“[The] total included 54 unintentional shootings, 118 attempted or completed suicides, and 438 assaults/homicides. Thirteen shootings were legally justifiable or an act of self-defense, including three that involved law enforcement officers acting in the line of duty. For every time a gun in the home was used in a self-defense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings, seven criminal assaults or homicides, and 11 attempted or completed suicides.”

 That’s a 1-to-22 good-to-bad ratio. They concluded:

“Guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.”

 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9715182/

The 1-good-to-22-bad ratio found in three cities may be an underestimate nationally. In 2016, in an analysis on FBI data, there were only 274 justifiable homicides involving a private citizen using a firearm. As there were 10,341 criminal gun homicides that year, that would generate a 1-to-37 ratio of justifiable-to-criminal homicide. That report excluded gun suicides and unintentional shootings, which would only increase that ratio further.

https://vpc.org/studies/justifiable19.pdf

On the other hand, the PubMed study looked at shootings in and around residences, whereas the analysis of the FBI data did not restrict itself to “within and around” residences.

BACKGROUND CHECKS

More than 5 in 6 Americans (84%), including over three-fourths of Republicans, support a law requiring a background check on all firearm purchases.

https://www.bradyunited.org/press-releases/new-polling-overwhelming-support-for-universal-background-checks

Clearly there is overwhelming public support for background checks, but legislation varies from state to state. What do the data show? In a 25-year study (1991-2016), the following was reported:

“State gun laws requiring universal background checks for all gun sales resulted in homicide rates 15 percent lower than states without such laws. Laws prohibiting the possession of firearms by people who have been convicted of a violent crime were associated with an 18 percent reduction in homicide rates….None of the state gun laws studied were found to be related to overall suicide rates.” The study concluded, “controlling who has access to guns has much more impact on reducing gun-related homicides than controlling what guns people have.”

https://www.bu.edu/federal/2019/08/06/the-fbi-and-cdc-datasets-agree-who-has-guns-not-which-guns-linked-to-murder-rates/

The US has averaged about 13,000 annual firearm homicides in 2020 and 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/249803/number-of-homicides-by-firearm-in-the-united-states/

Were these findings applied to all states, that would suggest reducing homicides by 2,000-2,500 (15-18%) annually.

Elsewhere, “Researchers found that a 1995 Connecticut law requiring gun buyers to get permits (which themselves required background checks) was associated with a 40 percent decline in gun homicides and a 15 percent drop in suicides. Similarly, when researchers studied Missouri’s 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase law, they found an associated increase in gun homicides by 23 percent, as well as a 16-percent increase in suicides.”

http://www.npr.org/2016/01/09/462252799/research-suggests-gun-background-checks-work-but-theyre-not-everything

If the results of Connecticut’s law were applied nationally, that would suggest over 5,000 saved lives. Perhaps the salient question with rigorous universal background checks or other gun safety legislation is simply this: What do we risk with its passage? We can always revise the law. We cannot bring back a lost life.

RED FLAG LAWS

 Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPO), also known as “Red Flag” laws, first adopted in Connecticut in 2005, are now in 19 states and Washington D.C. They allow loved ones and law enforcement to intervene when a family member is in crisis and considering harm to themselves or others. They can petition the court for an order to temporarily prevent someone from accessing guns.

https://everytownresearch.org/solution/extreme-risk-laws/

Most research to date has focused on firearm suicide prevention. Two of the earliest states to adopt such measures, Connecticut and Indiana, taken together, showed about a 10% reduction in firearm suicides in the 10 years following the enactment of their laws.

https://everytownresearch.org/solution/extreme-risk-laws/

If such results were applied nationally, that could mean about 2,500 saved lives. “Indiana’s law was found to prevent one suicide per 10 orders issued.” In the wake of the Parkland school shooting, Florida adopted a red flag law. It’s been used nearly 9,000 times.”

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-red-flag-law-used-214658837.html?fr=yhssrp_catchal

If Indiana’s results were applied to Florida, that might mean nearly 900 averted suicides in Florida. On the other hand, New Mexico adopted a red flag law, but it was implemented only nine times by what were described as resistant law enforcement officers during the first two years after the law’s passage. Any law without enforcement can never prove its effectiveness.

https://news.yahoo.com/nms-red-flag-gun-law-141000653.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

Red flag laws can also play a role in preventing mass shootings, as a 2019 study revealed “the subjects in 21 of the 159 court orders that were analyzed showed clear signs that they intended to commit a mass shooting.”

https://rockinst.org/blog/what-does-the-research-say-about-extreme-risk-protection-orders-erpo/

Again, what do we risk with its passage of such gun safety legislation?  We can always revise the law. We cannot bring back a lost life.

SINCE COLUMBINE: WARNING SIGNS 2.0 AND SAFE GUN STORAGE

The American Psychological Association’s multiyear collaboration with MTV led to a training video, Warning Signs, “aimed at helping the nation’s youth to identify the warning signs of violent behavior and to recognize the need to seek professional help.” The video’s eventual release came just the day after the Columbine mass shooting in Colorado, in April 1999.

“There have been 366 school shootings since Columbine….There were more school shootings in 2022 — 46 — than in any year since at least 1999…. While it remains highly unlikely that any student will experience a school shooting, the number of incidents has risen rapidly in recent years. [From 1999] Through 2017, the country averaged about 11 school shootings a year, never eclipsing 16 in a single year. But starting in 2018, violent incidents started climbing. In 2020, the novel coronavirus closed campuses for months, and the number of shootings declined. But with classes in session again, 42 K-12 schools experienced school shootings in 2021, and 46 endured one the next year — mirroring the nation’s broader rise in gun violence as it emerged from the pandemic.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/school-shootings-database/.

With so many school shootings since Columbine, one would hope that lessons have been learned which may prevent or at least reduce the recurrence of such tragedies. The time appears more than ripe for the American Psychological Association to produce an updated version of their 1999 video, perhaps calling it Warning Signs 2.0.

An analysis of mass shootings, school and non-school, “from 2009 to 2017 revealed that in 51 percent of incidents the shooter exhibited warning signs that they posed a risk to themselves or others before the shooting” making the case for increased training for students, staff, teachers, and others. Meanwhile, the US Secret Service developed Enhancing School Safety Guide in 2018.

https://everytownresearch.org/extreme-risk-laws/

https://archive.org/details/EnhancingSchoolSafety

https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/Protecting_Americas_Schools.pdf

However, as child firearm deaths represent only about 10% of all firearm deaths, Warning Signs 2.0 might target all ages, and could serve as a training video, not just for school personnel and students, but for the general public and all workplace settings.

One telling comment in the Washington Post column was this:

“The median age of a school shooter is 16. Children, The Post also determined, are responsible for more than half the country’s school shootings — none of which would be possible if those children didn’t have access to firearms.” In fact, “80% of school shooters under 18 access a firearm from their own home or that of a relative or friend.”

https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/Protecting_Americas_Schools.pdf

Safe gun storage legislation may help reduce children’s access to such guns. Presently, there are only “13 states that have laws concerning either gun storage or firearm locking devices.”

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/06/qa-on-bidens-gun-proposals/

But are states with such laws make a difference? The answer appears to be a resounding “YES.” “A 2015 study published in the American Journal of Public Health found that states requiring gun locks experienced a 68% lower suicide rate compared with states that had no similar requirement….A 2020 meta-analysis of 18 different gun policies by the RAND Corporation found that CAP [Child Access Prevention] laws have reduced both firearm suicides and accidental shootings among young people. The RAND team concluded that CAP laws were the most effective out of 18 categories of laws it examined.”

https://gunsandamerica.org/story/20/07/13/do-safe-storage-gun-laws-prevent-violence/

In a survey interviewing over a thousand adults, nearly 8 in Americans 10 (nearly 70% of Republicans, nearly 80% of Democrats and Independents) support mandating that guns are stored with a lock in place.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/10/02/most-americans-support-safe-gun-storage-laws-according-to-new-poll

The data suggests both the efficacy of such gun storage legislation and widespread support for such. As was stated in connection with adopting background checks and red flag laws nationally, what do we risk with the passage of gun storage legislation? We can always revise the law. We cannot bring back a lost life.

VOLUNTARY BUY-BACK PROGRAM  

Thought experiment: Gun violence results in an estimated $280 billion in total annual costs in the United States.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/bear-burden-gun-violence-costs-america-280-billion/story?id=80245349

There are nearly 400 million guns owned by just over 80 million Americans, about 5 per owner. What if the government offered $10,000 to buy back 4 guns, regardless of gun type, and each owner decided to keep just one gun? It’d cost the government $800 billion, about 3.2x what it costs the country every year for gun violence. Mileage may vary: At “just” $1,000 per gun were offered, if 4 out of 5 guns were turned in, the cost would be $320 billion. I’m sure a mere $500 per gun ($160 billlion total) would incentivize many. For comparison, our military budget is $882 billion this one year alone. I see this buy-back program as a “military budget” to prevent the equivalent of “war” against our very own selves.

Of course loopholes may abound in this thought experiment, but we may learn from Australia. “What we can say with certainty is that in the 15 years prior to the first gun buyback in 1996, there had been 13 mass shootings in Australia. In the 21 years since more restrictive firearm policies came into effect [through 2017], there has not been a single mass shooting in the country.”

https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-did-government-gun-buybacks-reduce-the-number-of-gun-deaths-in-australia-85836

Attributing change to one intervention when multiple interventions occurred simultaneously may not be considered “cricket.” Australia’s 1996 National Firearms Agreement had many provisions, including:

1. Restrictions on automatic and semi-automatic rifles and pump action rifles and shotguns and
2. Stricter requirements for the registration of all firearms, and
3. Stricter requirements for the storage of all firearms. However, in another analysis, “We find that the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%, with no significant effect on non-firearm death rates.”

https://academic.oup.com/aler/article-abstract/12/2/509/99272?login=false

This is particularly salient as, in the US, estimated firearm suicides in 2021 totaled a record high 26,320, even greater than the record high 20,966 firearm homicides.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/pdfs/mm7140a4-H.pdf

WAITING PERIODS

If a certain number of days are required between the purchase of a gun and when the buyer can take possession of that gun, such a “cooling off period” can lead to fewer firearm suicides. “In a study of statewide suicide rate changes between 2013 and 2014, states with waiting periods saw a decrease in suicide rates, while those without waiting period laws had an increase.”

https://everytownresearch.org/solution/waiting-periods/

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, in a 2017 study, found, “Waiting period laws that delay the purchase of firearms by a few days reduce gun homicides by roughly 17%. Our results imply that the 17 states (including the District of Columbia) with waiting periods avoid roughly 750 gun homicides per year as a result of this policy. Expanding the waiting period policy to all other US states would prevent an additional 910 gun homicides per year without imposing any restrictions on who can own a gun.”

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619896114.

Extrapolating these PNAS results to the nearly 21,000 firearm homicides in 2021 would suggest about 3,500 fewer firearm homicides with waiting periods in place.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The following must be considered as part of the solution to reducing gun violence in America:

1. Let evidence, not partisanship, dictate policy. Look to positive outcomes of legislation in some states which show promise if extended nationally. Organizations such as Everytown Research & Policy serve as an independent repository of outcome-based legislation. (https://everytownresearch.org/rankings/)
2. Repeal or revise the Second Amendment. Over two centuries ago, Thomas Jefferson sagely noted, “As new discoveries are made…institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times,” and that “constitutions are not too sacred to be touched and revised”. In 1816 he could not have anticipated a one-shot-load-and-reload musket would be replaced with automatic rifles capable of shooting at hundreds of people in a matter of minutes, or perhaps a future firearm capable of deploying a nuclear device. Our “well-regulated militia” includes the Army, Navy, and Air Force, not the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Boogaloo Boys, nor any vigilante group forming overnight.
3. Tamp down the tenor of political rhetoric, and replace it with constructive problem-solving discussion. The divisiveness promulgated since about 2015 by political leaders corresponds to a rise in hate crimes and gun violence over that time. When rhetoric vilifies “the other,” whether a minority group member or one’s political adversary, there is implicit approval to act against them, some taking it to a violent extreme. Cool-headed problem-solving will reverse this trend. We need to value effective results, not scoring political points, and hold our political leaders accountable for such.
4. “Mental illness” is not the culprit in nearly any of the firearm homicides, but expanded mental health services may help reduce firearm suicides. The majority (54%) of firearm deaths are suicides. And, while mass shootings account for only 1% of firearm deaths, mental health services may assist those prone to such violence.
5. Reinstitute the Assault Weapons Ban. In effect for a decade (1994-2004), mass shootings (of 6 or more) declined during that decade, and nearly doubled the decade thereafter. Homeowners can adequately protect themselves and hunters can sufficiently snag big game with other kinds of firearms.
6. Ban high-capacity magazines.
7. More “good guys with a gun” is not the answer. For example, in 2016, FBI stats suggested only 1 in 37 firearm homicides were “justifiable.” Studies show “guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in a fatal or nonfatal accidental shooting, criminal assault, or suicide attempt than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.” If you and your children were to attend a movie at a multiplex theater, given a choice between one theater with a hundred patrons each carrying a gun and the other theater prohibiting guns, in which one would you feel safer?
8. Require a background check on all firearm purchases. States with gun laws requiring universal background checks for all gun sales were associated with 15-18% reductions in firearm homicides. Extrapolating that nationwide would suggest reducing such homicides by 2,000-2,500 annually. Another study suggested a decrease by 40% in one state; nationally that might suggest reducing firearm homicides by 8,000.
9. Extend Red Flag laws nationwide. Already in 19 states and Washington D.C., if research in a couple states, Indiana and Connecticut, generalized nationally, there would be about 2,500 fewer firearm suicides. The more recent adoption of a red flag law after the Parkland shooting in Florida revealed it has been implemented about 9,000 times already in Florida, arguably preventing close to 1,000 suicides, and possibly many homicides as well.
10.  Extend safe gun storage legislation nationwide. With 16 being the median age of a school mass shooter, with 80% of school shooters under 18 having access a firearm from their own home or that of a relative or friend, with gun storage legislation associated with a 68% decrease in child firearm suicides, and with firearms being the number one cause of childhood deaths, extending gun storage legislation from 13 to all 50 states is clearly indicated.
11.  “Warning Signs 2.0” training video tape. The American Psychological Association and MTV produced a training tape, “Warning Signs,” in 1999, identifying the warning signs of violent behavior in youth and thereby recognizing the need to refer such individuals for professional help. Now two decades (and nearly 400 school shootings) later, an updated “Warning Signs 2.0” is sorely needed. Perhaps a collaboration of the American Psychological Association with the United States Department of Homeland Security, United States Secret Service, and the National Threat Assessment Center may forge new, effective methods. The latter three entities, in 2018, produced “Enhancing School Safety Using a Threat Assessment Model – An Operational Guide for Preventing Targeted School Violence.” (https://archive.org/details/EnhancingSchoolSafety) However, as child firearm deaths represent only about 10% of all firearm deaths, Warning Signs 2.0 might target all ages, and could serve as a training video, not just for school personnel and students, but for the general public and all workplace settings.
12.  Raise the minimum age for gun purchase to 21.
13.  Voluntary buy-guns-back program. In Australia, “In the 15 years prior to the first gun   buyback in 1996, there had been 13 mass shootings in Australia. In the 21 years since more restrictive firearm policies came into effect [through 2017], there has not been a single mass shooting in the country.” The voluntary nature of the program in no way treads upon the Second Amendment.
14. Require a waiting or “cooling off period,” the required time between the purchase of a gun and when the buyer can take possession of that gun. If the results of waiting periods found in 17 states in 2017 generalized to 50 states in 2021, that might suggest about 3,500 fewer firearm homicides.
15. Confer with leaders in firearm violence prevention from the world’s most successful countries. The US had “3.96 deaths per 100,000 people in 2019. That was more than eight times as high as the rate in Canada, which had 0.47 deaths per 100,000 people — and nearly 100 times higher than in the United Kingdom, which had 0.04 deaths per 100,000.”

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/24/980838151/gun-violence-deaths-how-the-u-s-compares-to-the-rest-of-the-world

More recent data notes that in 2021, while the US had 48,832 firearm deaths, Japan had 1 (O-N-E)!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1319230/japan-number-gun-fatalities-shooting-incidents/

For more than a decade, 2007 through at least 2018, Iceland had 0 (Z-E-R-O) firearm homicides!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iceland-gun-loving-country-no-shooting-murders-2007-n872726

FINAL COMMENTARY

With nearly 400,000 firearm deaths in the past decade (2012-2021), with a steady rise from about 34,000 in 2012 to about 49,000 deaths in 2021, the US has much to learn from others to reverse this trend in tragedy…if we are willing to listen and be open to what has shown success within and outside our borders.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13-year-old Bennie Hargrove was shot and killed at Washington Middle School in Albuquerque in 2021.  The Albuquerque Police Department investigation found that it was fellow 14 year old middle school student Juan Saucedo Jr. who took his parent’s gun to school and shot Hargrove.  On March 2,  Saucedo Jr. pleaded no contest to second-degree murder. On March 3, House Bill 9 named after Hargrove passed the NM  Senate by a vote of 24 to 16 after it was amended.  It now goes back to the House for further consideration and if approved  by the House as amended and enacted, it goes to the Governor for signature to become law.

The link to news source material is here:

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/bennies-bill-clears-another-hurdle-passes-senate/

https://www.koat.com/article/bennie-hargrove-bill-senate-house/43186905

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/legislature/gun-safety-bill-known-as-bennies-bill-passes-senate-faces-one-more-hurdle-before-governor-sign-off/

https://www.abqjournal.com/2577928/middle-school-students-killer-to-remain-in-custody-until-21.html

HOUSE BILL 9 EXPLAINED

House Bill 9 addresses  unlawful access to firearm by minor. The legislation is  sponsored by Albuquerque area Democrat Representative Pamelya Herndon. This bill was originally written as a safe gun storage bill, but was amended  to secure  more support. It makes it a crime to store a firearm in a way that negligently disregards the ability of a minor to access it. Criminal charges could be brought only if the minor later brandishes or displays the firearm in a threatening way or uses it to kill or injure someone. House Bill 9 would make it a misdemeanor to negligently allow a child access to a firearm, and would make it a felony if that negligence resulted in someone dying or suffering great bodily harm.  On February 9, House Bill 9 passed the House on a 37-32 vote after a three-hour debate.

On March 3, the Senate by a vote of 24-16 to pass House Bill 9, but with amendments. Senate Republicans succeeded in amending the bill by a narrow 20-19 vote to exempt hunting and other recreational activities involving firearms from being covered by the bill.  All other proposed amendments failed.  Senate Republicans argued  House Bill 9, would be incompatible with rural New Mexico’s gun culture and could criminalize law-abiding citizens.  Senate Democrats backers of the legislation insisted it is specifically targeted to cover situations when children obtain firearms that are not properly stored by adults.

The Senate vote was  along party lines with the exception of  Democrat Senator  Benny Shendo Jr. of Jemez Pueblo who cast a “no” vote. All Senate Republicans voted in opposition. Despite the Senate’s vote to approve House Bill 9,  the bill goes  back to the House for final approval before being sent to the Governor for her signature to become law. The Governor could veto the measure, but that is not likely.

Representative Pamelya Herndon, who sponsored HB 9 said this:

“Last year, we saw more gun violence. We saw more suicides with children who had access to guns, and we saw more, more children having access to even accidental shootings because they did have access to those firearms. … I just want people to become aware of, we don’t want to pass a piece of legislation, and then it now sits in the books, and no one ever knows about it until there is another incident that requires that piece of legislation to be utilized.”

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/legislature/gun-safety-bill-known-as-bennies-bill-passes-senate-faces-one-more-hurdle-before-governor-sign-off/

Governor Lujan Grisham said this about the Senate vote on HB 9:

“I commend the members of the Legislature for joining me in efforts to keep New Mexicans safe by requiring safe storage of firearms. … Holding gun owners accountable for failing to safely store their firearms is common sense. We lose nearly three children in New Mexico every month as a result of gun violence — it’s imperative to take every step we can to keep that from happening going forward.”

Out of upwards of 10 major gun control bills under consideration by the 2023 New Nexico legislature, House Bill 9 has made it the farthest to become law. Other gun safety bills that are stalling in the Senate or House committees  include  a proposed 14-day waiting period for firearm sales,  a bill raising the minimum age from 18 to 21 to buy guns and the  assault weapons ban, such as AR-15-style rifles.

The link to news source material is here:

New Mexico Political Reports “Senate passes 1st Major Gun Control Law of Session”, March 4 at  https://nmpoliticalreport.com/

https://www.abqjournal.com/2578339/gun-safe-storage-bill-inches-closer-to-governors-desk-after-winning-senate-approval.html

 KILLER OF HARGROVE PLEADS NO CONTEST

On March 2, 14 year old Juan Saucedo Jr. pleaded ‘no contest’ in Juvenile Court for the murder of Bennie Hargrove.  Saucedo Jr. will remain in custody until he is 21, which is the maximum sentence allowed for a child under New Mexico law.

Juvenile Court Judge Catherine R. Begaye to the opportunity to address Saucedo at his sentencing and said this to him:

“Juan, I want you to understand the actions you took on that day when you killed Bennie, didn’t just affect his family—you frightened the other middle school children who were attending that same school. You scared their parents. … I want you to take the opportunity to see the consequences of your actions.”

https://www.koat.com/article/washington-middle-school-student-no-contest-murder/43167838

TWO OTHER  GUN MEASURES MAKE IT OUT OF SENATE COMMITTEE 

On Sunday, March 6,  Senate Bill 427, another bill to impose a 14-day waiting period on gun purchases,  made it out of the Senate Health and Public Affairs Committee. Senate Bill 427 passed on a 6-1 vote. It would do the same thing as House Bill 100, which made it out of two committees with a do-pass recommendation last month but hasn’t yet been brought to the House floor. New Mexico currently has no waiting period to buy a firearm. The bill’s sponsor, Sen. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, said 14 days would put New Mexico at the high end of waiting periods. While 11 states have waiting period laws, only Hawaii has one as long as 14 days.

Supporters said the cooling-off period required by the bill would reduce both violent crime and suicides. Sen. Brenda McKenna, D-Corrales, said several of her relatives have died by suicide with a gun and she said this:

“All of them had easy access to a firearm in the home.”

Opponents of Senate Bill 427 said the bill wouldn’t do anything to reduce crime and would be a hardship for law-abiding gun owners, particularly people in rural areas who would have to travel twice to buy a gun.

The Senate Health and Public Affairs Committee also voted 6-1 to advance Senate Bill 428  which would amend the New Mexico Unfair Practices Act to sue gun sellers who advertise guns or other products as being legal in New Mexico or the United Sates when they’re not, or sell illegal guns. Both votes were along party lines.

The link to news source material is here:

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/legislature/senate-committee-advances-gun-bills-on-waiting-period-advertising/article_101491f8-b9e4-11ed-be3d-3787c5c260a2.html?fbclid=IwAR374XxBuoatrwFJo3uQaCvLZyU9M_D9a5iyBlu4VYm9a-h2vmeKAslWfHY

HOUSE APPROVES RETAIL CRIME BILL ON 62-3 VOTE

On March 1, the New Mexico House voted 62-3 to approve House Bill 234 which is an attempt crack down  on retail crime. The law would  make it easier for state prosecutors to charge brazen, big-ticket shoplifters with heftier offenses.  is headed to the Senate. The bill is sponsored by  Representive Marian Matthews, D-Albuquerque.

House legislators largely agreed on the need to take action in response to a major trend of shoplifters hitting a string of stores, sometimes while flashing weapons to deter employees from intervening. Major concerns were raised about the bill’s drafting  with questions asked whether it would be enforced in Albuquerque. Rep. Marian Matthews retooled the bill  before it reached the House floor to address concerns about possible unintended consequences.

HOUSE BILL 234 EXPLAINED

House  Bill 234  will  create a new organized retail crime offense that could be charged in cases involving the theft of at least $2,500 in merchandise from one or more retailers over the course of a year.  It could also be applied to individuals who receive or possess  stolen merchandise, or to those involved in organizing retail theft rings.  The bill would also allow prosecutors to combine multiple robberies committed within a 90-day period to be combined under a single criminal shoplifting charge, and would also clarify that robbery can involve making threats of violence while fleeing from the scene of a theft. If convicted of organized retail crime, offenders could face up to 9 years in prison. House Minority Whip Greg Nibert, R-Roswell attempted  to amend the bill to include even stiffer penalties for individuals convicted of using a firearm while shoplifting, but the attempt was rejected.

During the House floor debate, Matthews said the bill would plug “gaping holes” in the state’s current shoplifting laws and that it will better protect local businesses and state residents. Mathews said this  told the House this:

“By cracking down on organized retail crime rings, we can send a clear message that these dangerous and costly crimes have no place in our state.” she said.

Passage of House Bill 234 was endorsed by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the New Mexico Chamber of Commerce and top Albuquerque city leaders.

OPPOSITION EMERGES

HOUSE BILL 234  passed on a 62-3 bi partisan  vote with all House Republicans voting in favor.  Three Democrats voted  in opposition and they were Reps. Joanne Ferrary of Las Cruces, Matthew McQueen of Galisteo and Angelica Rubio of Las Cruces. Not at all surprising, HOUSE BILL 234  was also  opposed the Law Offices of the Public Defender and the New Mexico Criminal Defense Lawyers Association.

In addition to the opposition by few, the push to crack down on retail theft will come have a major incarceration costs. An analysis of the bill projected the state could have to pay at least $556,000 per year to cover the increased incarceration costs the bill could trigger by imposing longer prison sentences.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2577720/house-approves-retail-crime-bill-that-could-lead-to-stiffer-sentences-on-62-3-vote.html

GOVERNOR’S MUST HAVE LEGISLATION

Governor  Michelle Lujan Grisham called upon lawmakers in her State of the State address to pass several gun control measures.  Thus far,  Bennie Hargrove  bill to penalize gun owners whose guns get into the hands of children who use them to commit crimes has made it the furthest and has  passed both the House and Senate, although both chambers must to agree on amendments to it before it can go to the governor’s desk. None of the others, including a waiting period bill, an assault weapons ban and magazine capacity limits, has gotten a floor vote yet.

On February 28, Governor Lujan Grisham spoke out  in no uncertain terms about the crime and  gun restriction legislation she wants enacted before the end of the session.  She characterized  the legislation as her “must have” legislative priorities.  Her “must have” legislative priorities include a waiting period for firearm purchases and raising the minimum age to buy certain guns to 21 as New Mexico.

The Governor acknowledged the proposed ban on “assault weapons”, such as AR-15-style rifles, will  likely  be struck down by the legislature in committee without any full Senate or House votes. The assault weapon ban has run into  questions over how to define “assault weapons” and what would be banned.

In addition to House Bill 9, there are other  measures that are still stuck in committee and pending enactment. The legislation includes the following:

House Bill 72 prohibits possession of semiautomatic firearm converter that allows the weapon to fire more rapidly and has not been scheduled for hearings.

House Bill 100  would establish a 14-day waiting period for the purchase of any firearm and requires a prospective seller who doesn’t already hold a valid federal firearms license to arrange for someone who does to conduct a federal background check prior to selling a firearm. The bill includes exclusions for sales between law enforcement officers and between immediate family members. House Bill 100 has passed  through two house committees. However, House Bill 100  has been on the House’s floor agenda for a week but has not been brought up for a vote amounting to speculation that there will be a narrow vote margin and it may not pass the  full House chamber to make it over to the Senate.

House Bill 306: Illegal straw purchases is a waiting first House committee hearing.

House Bill 101 as written  would make it a fourth-degree felony to purchase, possess, manufacture, import, sell or transfer assault weapons in the state.  It would restrict the sale, manufacture and possession of AR-15-style rifles along with semiautomatic firearms with certain characteristics, such as semiautomatic rifles with detachable magazines, or semiautomatic pistols with a fixed magazine capable of loading more than 10 rounds of ammunition. The bill would prohibit the sale or possession of assault weapons, which are defined as semiautomatic rifles and handguns with certain characteristics. House Bill 101 also states any semi-automatic rifle that has the capacity for a large magazine would be considered prohibited in addition to attachments like grenade launchers and flash suppressors. The legislation does include limited exceptions to the ban including police officers and members of the armed forces. A substitute bill introduced during a committee hearing included a clause to allow current assault weapon owners to keep those firearms, provided they register them with the New Mexico State Police. The bill has raised concerns from the New Mexico Attorney General that it could be contested in court due to potential Second Amendment violations. House Bill 101 has  passed  one House committee. Amendments are being considered in a second committee.

House Bill 306 is sponsored by Minority Floor Leader Ryan Lane, a Republican from San Juan County. It seeks to prevent gun straw purchases, a type of firearm purchase where someone buys a firearm for another person who is legally banned from owning firearms, such as a convicted felon.

Senate Bill 44 would make it a misdemeanor to carry a firearm within 100 feet of a polling location on election day or during early voting. On-duty law enforcement officers and security personnel would be exempt.  On February 16, the New Mexico Senate voted on a 28-9 vote to approve Senate Bill 44 after lengthy debate where Republicans lawmakers unsuccessfully attempted to amend the bill to extend exceptions to individuals who have permits to carry a concealed firearm. The amendment failed on 13-23 vote. The bill has advanced through one of two committees in the House.

Senate Bill 116 would establish a minimum age of 21 for anyone seeking to purchase or possess an automatic firearm, semiautomatic firearm or firearm capable of accepting a large-capacity magazine. The bill would effectively raise the minimum age for buying an AR-15-style rifle from 18 to 21. Senate Bill 116 has  passed one Senate committee. On March 1, Senate Bill 116 stalled in the Senate Judiciary Committee as a result of dueling motions to reject or pass the bill where each failed on 4-4 votes. The tie votes occurred  because of the absence of Sen. Bill O’Neill, D-Albuquerque. The lack of a successful motion leaves the bill in the Senate Judiciary Committee, where it could be scheduled for another hearing, at the prerogative of the Chairman Senator Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces.  Given the shortness of time remaining in the session  and the amount of other legislation pending, another hearing is not likely.

Senate Bill 171 seeks to ban the manufacture, sale, trade, gift, transfer or acquisition of semiautomatic pistols that have two or more defined characteristics. Those characteristics include a detachable magazine that attaches outside the pistol grip, a threaded barrel capable of accepting a barrel extender, flash suppressor, forward hand grip or silencer; or a shroud that is attached to the barrel that allows the shooter to hold the firearm with the second hand without being burned. The legislation also applies to firearms that can be modified to shoot automatically by a single pull of the trigger.  Senate Bill 171 seeks to ban the sale of hollow point ammunition, machine guns and certain other kinds of firearms. It would prohibit the sale of ammunition coated with materials designed to penetrate metal or pierce protective armor, along with ammunition designed to explode or segment on impact. Ammunition coated with materials designed to penetrate metal or pierce protective armor is often referred to as “cop killer” ammunition in that such ammunition is not necessary for hunting or target practice. Lawmakers of both parties questioned the legality of a proposal and Senate Bill 171 was  rejected by a Senate committee.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

The 60-day session ends March 18. Given the fact that there is a mere 12 days left of the 2023 legislative session, it is becoming painfully obvious that not much of the Governor’s “must have” gun control legislation is going to get enacted and it’s  a damn shame.

Democrats in the 2023 legislative session hold a 45-25 majority in the House and a 27-15 in the Senate. New Mexico Democrats are looking very foolish  not  enacting reasonable and responsible gun control measures as New Mexico Republican legislators continue with their national party’s failure to do anything but cater to the National Rifle Association (NRA) not believing the country has a gun crisis.

What was needed from the get go is a balance between crime and punishment and gun control that in a real sense they go hand in hand to deal with reducing the state’s high violent crime rates.  The message must be loud and clear: “You use a gun during the commission of a crime, or you are negligent with your gun, you go to prison with mandatory enhanced sentences.”

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham should reach out immediately to Democrat legislative leaders and broach the subject with them about sponsoring and “Omnibus Violent Crime and Gun Control Act” that could be enacted in the remaining days of the 2023 session or calling a Special Session immediately after when the 2023 Legislative session ends.

On March 4 and after 3 hours of contentious debate,  the NM Senate  voted 23-15 to pass  Senate Bill 11  known as the Paid Family Leave and Medical Leave Bill.  The legislation will create and fund a new state program that would make payments to employees who take time off for the birth of a child or to attend to serious medical situations for themselves or family members. Workers who qualify could take up to 12 weeks per year of paid leave.

Senate Bill 11 is sponsored by Albuquerque area Democrat and Senate Pro Tem Mimi Stewart.   It was he Paid Family and Medical Leave Task Force with representation from advocacy groups, business owners and labor unions that met last summer and issued a final report in October. The task force drafted SB 11.

FIERCE OPPOSITION

Senate Bill 11 was fiercely  opposed by business groups and Republican legislators who described it as a tax on both workers and employers alike. The Senate’s 23-15 vote broke down mostly  along party lines with all Republicans voting but with Democratic Sens. George Muñoz of Gallup and Daniel Ivey-Soto of Albuquerque joining with the chamber’s Republicans to vote in opposition.

The Senate floor debate lasted for more than 3 hours.  Republican State Senator William Sharer of Farmington tried to amend the bill and offed two amendments. One amendment would give businesses the option to participate. The second amendment would reduce the amount of paid time off workers could take per year.  The amendments were voted down on largely party-line votes.

Sharer said this during the debate:

“I think we ought to be careful before we take the big hammer and start bashing businesses.”

One amendment was approved during the Senates debate where employees would will  have to provide a timeline for their return to work.

Senate backers of SB11 insisted it will bolster New Mexico’s economy and increase employee morale. Sen. Siah Correa Hemphill, D-Silver City duering debate recalled having to take unpaid time off from her job to care for one of her sons who was dealing with serious health issues. She said this

“This bill is going to give workers more dignity and control over their lives … This really is going to help provide financial security for families across New Mexico.”

Senate Democrats said the bill will help women remain in the workforce  or find new jobs  as data shows only 53.2% of New Mexico women age 16 and older held jobs over a recent five-year period. State Sen. Michael Padilla, D-Albuquerque, is a cosponsor of the bill. Senate Majority Whip Michael Padilla  who is a business owner, said he got involved on the bill so he could be a voice for the business community. Padilla said the bill would bring 47,000 workers into the workforce if enacted. Padilla  said this:

“This bill is going to bring workers back into the workforce. … It’ll expand payrolls, a stronger economy, reduce turnover costs, improve morale, employees will take fewer sick days and it will bring mothers back into the workforce. It’s an affordable program.”

ARGUMENTS MADE IN OPPOSTION TO ENACTMENT

Republican Senators  maintained that the bill will  hurt small and medium-sized companies, particularly those operated by local entrepreneurs. State Senator  Mark Moores, R-Albuquerque, said this:

“A medium-sized business like ours, it’s especially difficult. … I don’t know how a small business in New Mexico can do it. Only large corporations can do it with sophisticated H.R. departments. They can transfer resources, move employees. Being able to do this for a small employer is incredibly difficult.”

Last year, the New Mexico legislature enacted a paid sick leave law and some business groups  said the cumulative effect of  both will forcesome small employers to leave the state.  In reponse Senate President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart said about two-thirds of the state’s roughly 44,000 businesses with more than one employee would not have to pay into the leave fund since they have fewer than five workers, though their employees would be required to do so.

The Senate  debate over the paid family leave bill has included disagreement over the program’s potential cost.  Opponents of  Senate Bill 11 cited a Legislative Finance Committee (LFC)  analysis that said the Paid Family and Medical Leave Task Force likely underestimated how many people would file and take paid family leave under the proposed law.  The LFC bill analysis projected the fund could face a $516 million deficit by the 2028 budget year. It’s an amount that could cause the state Workforce Solutions Department to order an increase in the premium amount that businesses and employees would have to pay into the fund.

Supporters of Senate Bill 11  insist the bill has been thoroughly vetted and said it could actually help businesses by providing a level playing field across the state. Supporters dispute the LFC  analysis saying it relies on U.S. Department of Labor surveys about the federal Family and Medical Leave Act which requires employers to provide up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave in certain circumstances  and not on other states’ experiences with paid family leave laws. Senator Mimi Stewart said this:

“We want employees to want to go back to work. … The “[fiscal impact report]  is wrong. … It used an inaccurate study.”

 According to the National Conference of State Legislatures there are currently, 11 states that  provide paid family and medical leave and the programs vary by state.  Senate Reoublican critics of the SB 11   said other states’ experiences with paid family leave laws should not be used to predict how such a law might function in New Mexico. Albquerque area Republican Senator Mark Moores said this:

“It’s like we want California policies, without having California economic opportunities.”

State Sen. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, voted for the bill. However, he brought up language in the bill that he said would lead to litigation. He said “the act applies to employers not physically in this state,” and cited employees in his district who might commute to El Paso to work. Stewart responded and clarified and said the bill language is about employees who work in the state for out-of-state employers, such as large corporations based elsewhere.

GOVERNOR’S SUPPORT IN QUESTION

Some New Mexico employers already provide paid family leave, and could decide whether to join the state program, as long as they offer similar benefits. Under a 2019 executive order issued by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham paid family leave is already required of some employers and the list of employers  includes the University of New Mexico, Netflix and the state of New Mexico.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has so far declined to take a definitive stance on the bill.  However, the Governor’s  spokeswoman did say the governor supports policies that ensure workers’ rights while still maintaining a healthy business climate.

Links to news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2578744/paid-family-leave-bill-wins-senate-approval-after-lengthy-debate-now-heads-to-house.html

https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2023/03/05/senate-passes-paid-family-and-medical-leave-bill/

HOW IT WILL WORK AND FUNDING REQUESTED

The program would, if enacted, provide up to 12 weeks of paid time off for an employee who has a new child,  is a victim of domestic violence, sexual assault or stalking or has a serious medical illness or to care for a family member with a serious medical illness.

Under the SB11 the Department of Workforce Solutions would administer the program. Employees would pay $5 for every $1,000 of income and employers with 5  or more employees would pay $4 for every $1,000 of income into a fund.  Starting in 2026 the fund  be used to compensate employees who qualify for the paid leave.

Senate Pro Tem Mimi Stewart said she thinks that over time the Department of Workforce Solutions would likely be able to lower the contributions.

The formula to be paid the benefits is 100% of minimum wage plus 67% of wages above minimum wage. Only minimum wage earners would earn their entire pay during the paid leave. The employee requesting time off would have to show documentation to establish the request for the leave and the Secretary of Workforce Solutions can impose fines on anyone who tries to commit fraudulent claims.

Senate Pro Tem Mimi Stewart is asking for $36.5 million in nonrecurring funds from the general fund over the next 2 year to begin the program but the program is expected to pay back the general fund by 2032. Stewart said much of the $36.5 million would go to creating an IT system for the Department of Workforce Solutions to help them administer the program.

Once the program is up and running and is able to pay the general fund back the $36.5 million, Stewart predicts that the Department of Workforce Solutions will be able to lower the $5 per employee and $4 per employer contribution rate.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It is very difficult to understand fully Republican opposition and hostility to the Paid Family and Medical Leave bill given that it is state funded the first 2 years with $36.5 million in nonrecurring funds from the general fund over the next 2 years. The program will be state run and not be fully up and running until 2026.

The state is experiencing an enormous $3.6 Billion surplus and there could be no better time enacting such legislation and funding it fully than now.  In addition to this funding, employees will pay $5 for every $1,000 of income and employers with 5  or more employees will  pay $4 for every $1,000 of income into a fund, contributions that could be very easily be eliminated as the state’s revenues continue to increase.

Democrats in the 2023 legislative session hold a 45-25 majority in the House and a 27-15 edge in the Senate and this year’s session is a 60 day session.  The session ends March 18.  With less than 2  weeks left of the 2023 legislative session, Senate and House Democrats need to move as quickly and as aggressively as possible to get a final votes on all of their pending legislation in order to avoid embarrassing Republican filibusters. If not, they will have only themselves to blame.

Within the City of Albuquerque, there exists what are referred to as Metropolitan Redevelopment Areas.  There are 19 known and approved Metropolitan Redevelopment Areas (MRA) and they are as follows:

The North Corridor Redevelopment Area 

Saw Mill Wells Park Redevelopment Area

Downtown 2025 Redevelopment Area

Easdowntown/Hunning Highlands/South Martinez Town Redevelopment Area

Railroad Yards Metropolitan Redevelopment Area

Historic Central Redevelopment Area

The St. Joseph Hospital Redevelopment Area

Barelas Redevelopment Area

Sucamore Redevelopment Area

South Barelas Industrial Park

South Broadway Redevelopment Area

The West Central Redevelopment Area

The Central/Highland/Upper Nob Hill Redevelopment Area

The East Central Redevelopment Area

West Central Redevelopment Area

Near Heights Redevelopment Area

The Soldiers and Sailors Park Redevelopment Area

The Clayton Heights/Lomas Del Cielo Redevelopment Area

East Gateway Redevelopment Area

A map of the city identifying the specific location of the 19 MRAs can be found at this link:

https://www.cabq.gov/mra/redevelopment-areas

ADOPTED REDEVELOPMENT PLAN GUIDLINES

Each redevelopment area has an adopted redevelopment plan that guides the City’s redevelopment strategy. Applicants who want to create a city sanctioned Redevelopment Area must be the current  property owner or an entity with a fully executed option to purchase the property. There is a $2,000 application fee.

In order to create a Metropolitan Redevelopment Area the following criteria will be considered:

1. The property’s current zoning, zoning of surrounding properties and the property’s potential for medium- and/or high-density development;
2. The property’s designation in the 2017 Comprehensive Plan including designation as an area of Change/Consistency, location in a Center/Corridor, location on a Main Street Corridor, or other;
3. The property’s potential for reinvestment given site location
4. Whether the property itself meets the criteria for MRA inclusion OR
5. Whether reinvestment in the property would catalyze investment in the MRA area broadly;
6. How inclusion would further the goals and strategies articulated in the existing MRA plan.

Since the inclusion of the property runs with land and would be in place for future owners and projects, the MRA shall not take into consideration the specifics of the current applicant’s proposed use and project.

THE MENAUL METROPOLITAN REDEVELOPMENT AREA PLAN

There is a  20^th MRA being applied for city approval and developed known as the Menaul Metropolitan Redevelopment Area plan. The Menaul Boulevard corridor is characterized by its important role within the economy of Albuquerque. The area is well located and central to the city with access to both Interstate 40 (I40) and Interstate 25 (I25) and in close proximity to the rail lines and the airport. There are stable and well-established neighborhoods to the north.

Menaul is home to many locally owned small businesses that provide retail, dining options, and other services, as well as larger retail and hospitality chains. Generally, the retail and service business are located along Menaul, with hotels located in proximity to I25 and I40. Generally, light industrial and storage uses are located between Menaul and I40, and between Menaul, Candelaria, I25 and the North Diversion channel.

While this is a very important area for supporting Albuquerque’s economic development, it is also an area that has problems with crime, and vacant or under-utilized buildings. The purpose of this project is to support the redevelopment and ongoing economic development of the Menaul Boulevard area. The area that this report will be focusing on are all of the non-residential properties in the area bounded by I25 (west), Candelaria (north), San Mateo (east), and I40 (south).

https://www.cabq.gov/council/find-your-councilor/district-7/district-7-projects/menaul-boulevard-redevelopment-report

MENAUL METROPOLITAN REDEVELOPMENT AREA PLAN MOVES FOREWARD

On February 16, the Albuquerque Development Commission heard a presentation on the Menaul Metropolitan Redevelopment Area plan where adoption was urged and considered.   Presenters said the Menaul Metropolitan Redevelopment Area plan is a potential lifeline of hope for an area that’s been plagued with crime.  Simply put the plan would revamp the Menaul Corridor area. The Albuquerque Development Commission voted to recommend that the City Council  approve the  Menaul Metropolitan Redevelopment Area plan to revamp the area and now awaits it awaits  approval from City Hall.

The area of focus  run along Menaul between I-25 and the Diversion Channel, extending south to I-40, as well as one block north. It comes after a study into the chronic crime that has prompted longstanding businesses to abandon the area in recent years.  The study recommended upgrades like better lighting, cameras, trail upgrades and a police substation. Last year the council passed a resolution prioritizing funding for those improvements.

Multiple businesses have closed down in the area in the last few years, including the Range Café in 2020.  Crime is stretched out through the area, but other things have warranted concern from some business owners, like the homeless population. Tyler Fabian, owner of Urban 360 Pizza said told the commission this:

“I’m pretty sure that turns away business, especially since we have a patio out here, people like to sit outside and not be bothered.”

The city is hoping to change a few main lots of land in the area. The city also wants to work on better communication between business owners who reside there. The development commission is really hammering to fix public safety in the area.

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-plans-to-revitalize-menaul-corridor/

https://www.krqe.com/news/politics-government/push-to-revitalize-menaul-east-of-i-25-moves-forward/

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-metro/city-of-albuquerque-rolls-out-plan-to-revitalize-downtown/

“SAFE OUTDOOR SPACE” TO HOUSE VICTIMS OF SEX TRAFFICKING IN TENTS BORDERING ON MENAUL CORRIDOR METROPOLITAN REDEVELOPMENT AREA

 A “Safe Outdoor Space” is a lot, or a portion of a lot, developed to permit homeless encampments with 40 designated spaces for tents, allow upwards of 50 people, require hand washing stations, toilets and showers, require a management plan, fencing and social services offered. It was Mayor Tim Keller who in his Apri 1 proposed city buget, which was approved by the city council, that initially came up with the “Safe Outdoor Spaces” concept when he included and received city council approval of $950,000 in his 2022-2023 budget for establishment and development of the city sanction tent encampments.

 APPROVED SAFE OUTDOOR SPACES

The city Planning Department has approved 3 Safe Outdoor Spaces and they will be allowed to exist and operate.  Two are designed for people to sleep in cars rather than tents and are located outside existing homeless shelters.  The first is operating outside the city’s Westside Emergency Housing Center.  The second a is due to open in January outside the Albuquerque Opportunity Center shelter at 715 Candeleria NE. The city has partnered with the nonprofit Heading Home to launch the first two.

A third  Safe Outdoor Space is Dawn Legacy Point homeless encampment to be located at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE.  It is intended to provide accommodations for upwards of 50 women who are homeless and who are “sex-trafficking victims” and other vulnerable populations.  It would operate under a 6 month licensing agreement with a possible 6 month renewal.  It was first approved by the Planning Department behind closed doors without giving proper and legally required  notice to surrounding property owners. 

The Dawn Legacy Point  safe outdoor space homeless encampment has generated major opposition and there are 6 appellants.  Opposing it are the   Santa Barbara Martineztown Neighborhood Association, the nonprofit LifeROOTS , the Crowne Plaza hotel, Sunset Memorial Park cemetery, the Greater Albuquerque Hotel & Lodging Association and the company that runs the Ramada Plaza hotel.

In December 22,  the Planning Department once again granted approval for the safe outdoor space at the Menaul  site.   At least 7  entities are fighting Dawn Legacy Pointe’s new approval. They argue that the project will harm an area already grappling with problems, that Dawn Legacy Pointe’s plans, including for security, are all insufficient and that the city is not protecting the community.

The Legacy Point encampment is within walking distance of Menaul School, across the street from the T-Mobile Call Center and a Quality Inn & Suites, it borders Sunset Memorial Park and one block Carrington College and two apartment complexes and immediately East of the Freeway is the massive TA Travel Truck which is known in law enforcement circles for prostitution and illicit drug activity. Immediate south of the truck stop on University Blvd is the Crown Plaza Hotel. Six appeals have been filed and a hearing officer sent the approval back to the Planning Department and finding that the city had not required the operator to first notify all the necessary property owners nearby.

LifeROOTS, one of the appellants, wrote in its appeal that the city “has no plan whatsoever to address and mitigate the impacts on the surrounding property owners and community at large.”

Menaul School and the Santa Barbara Neighborhood Association have argued that the City Planning Department and the Family Community Services Department gave the Dawn Legacy Point applicant preferential treatment by searching for and  identifying city own property to be used for the Safe Outdoor Space and  with the Family Community Services Department committing funding for the safe outdoor space before it was approved,

Menaul School wrote in its appeal:

“It is clear that the issuing of the permit to Dawn Legacy Pointe has been tainted from the start by the weighing of the (city’s) Department of Family & Community Services’ thumb upon the scales.”

Dawn Legacy Pointe for its part has said its operations plan, including the cite’s security plan, underwent a review as part of its approval process  and all such projects must have fences with lockable gates, background checks for operators and residents and 24/7 staffing. Katie Simon, a spokesperson for Dawn Legacy Pointe, said this:

“Data from other cities demonstrate that Safe Outdoor Spaces do not contribute to an increase of crime. … Safe outdoor spaces are a useful resource for people living on the street and to mitigate unsanctioned encampments.”

Links to news source material are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2561731/mayor-kellers-veto-put-safe-outdoor-spaces-on-the-city-council-agenda-again.html

APPEAL HEARD BY CITY LAND USE HEARING OFFICER

On February 27, a daylong hearing on the appeal of the city’s orginal  approval of the Dawn Legacy point Safe Outdoor Spaces to be located at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE. was held before a Land Use Hearing Officer Steve Chavez.  The appeal has been pending for 6 months.  Although some prep work has been done by the city on the property, the lots are still empty.

The six appellants include the Albuquerque Hotel Lodgers Association, the Ramada Plaza Hotel, Sunset Memorial Park, Life Roots, Menaul School, and the Santa Barbara Martinez Town Neighborhood Association. The groups told the hearing officer that security measures are some of their biggest concerns.

All Seven organization appealing the approval expressed their frustrations against the site  saying the city failed in notifying them of the looming sanctioned encampment.  Attorney John Salazar,  representing the Crowne Plaza Hotel,  told the hearing officer “The problem is that this [aproval of the SOS] was a secret proceeding. We had no opportunity to discuss their application until now”. Attorney Jacques Chouinard added “The application is insufficient under the terms of the Integrated Development Ordinance.  … It fails to adhere to the use specific standards for security plans and services provisions.

The city council passed an amendment passed last November  requesting the sites include security measures through a new ordinance.  Albuquerque’s Planning Department’s Code Compliance Manager  Angelo Metzgar said  the  Menual  SOS cite is exempt and said  “This application was deemed complete before that took effect so therefore it would not need to.”

Kylea Good with Dawn Legacy Pointe told the hearing officer that   security has been contracted to oversee the site 24/7 once operations are up and running.  Good said their focus is to help those in need and she said “That is what nonprofits do. If we can’t serve you I’m going to try and find some but that can…it’s not like we are looking at doing the intakes on site.”

Santa Barbara Martinez Town Neighborhood Association President, Loretta Naranjo-Lopez  told the hearing officer “The continuation of these services that are coming in brings even more homeless to our area”.  Crowne Plaza Hotel Manager, Joani Jones said  “I feel like it’s going to be a magnet for the homeless to come down to that particular area.”

Karl Holme, executive director of the Greater Albuquerque Hotel and Lodging Association  testified on behalf of his association during the hearing, She said this:

“We feel this encampment will only attract more illicit traffic and hasten the decline of midtown.  Just because the SOS application meets all the IDO requirements, it doesn’t mean it’s a good idea for this location.”

Lindsey Gilbert, president and head of Menual School, also testified against the SOS. Menaul School, a faith-based boarding school that’s been part of the neighborhood for decades. Gilbert said this:

“Based on who our community is– children, international students who don’t know America well, who don’t know what’s safe and unsafe, and we’re saying we’re going to mix those two communities together, we can anticipate that this is going to cause problems. … Anything that makes our campus look less safe is bad for our community.”

Elizabeth Holguin, the City’s Deputy Director of Homeless Solutions and Clinical advisor for the city assisted with the cite selection and has spoken in support of the safe outdoor space from the very beginning. Holguin said there are misconceptions about the unhoused population, like they have bad intentions or might be involved in criminal activity. But this space would cater to women who are victims of human or sex trafficking or domestic violence, a population that Holguin says mostly just wants a safe haven.

Holguin  said this during the hearing:

“It’s not the only location, it doesn’t have to be this location, but it’s one that met the zoning code, it’s right next to the highway. … It’s actually away from the neighborhood so I thought it would be a good location. … I think that everybody wants to have a solution but every time we propose one it’s maybe not here, not like this. … So it’s difficult to make real progress and be able to test new ideas.”

The hearing officer will take about a month to review the appeal and give a recommendation to City Council. Councilors will then have the final say whether the Safe Outdoor Space Space use for 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE. will move forward.

The links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-metro/appeals-heard-against-albuquerque-sanctioned-homeless-camp/

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/second-appeal-hearing-for-approved-safe-outdoor-space-in-ne-albuquerque/

PROTEST AGAINST SOS ORIDINANCE

On Monday, February 27, several groups gathered at One Civic Plaza to protest the  approved Safe Outdoor Space (SOS) ordinance designed to help ease the city’s homeless crisis, but protests continues to fall on deaf ears. Many voiced their frustrations against the Safe Outdoor Spaces amendments to the Itegrated Development Ordinance aimed at providing temporary relief for those in need, including sex trafficking survivors.

Judy Young with Women Taking Back Our Neighborhood said this:

“This is another piecemeal, throw it together, slap it around. This is not a solution. … It’s not going to help the city. It’s not going to help these sex trafficking victims. There is nothing good that can come out of this. … They have violated so many of our rights to protect those that are trafficked, to protect the neighborhood, to protect the integrity of Albuquerque. They have violated this in every way possible. This site is going to be a disaster not just for the neighborhood, but for the victims who have already been trafficked.”

Some argued the safe outdoor space would be no different than Coronado Park, an unsanctioned encampment shut down by mayor Tim Keller in 2022. Santa Barbara Martinez Town Neighborhood president, Loretta Naranjo Lopez said this:

“We’ve already experienced this with Coronado Park. This isn’t the right location. We think … [victims of sex trafficking] should be in a house, in a facility where they’re getting the treatment that they need and they’re indoors getting indoor showers, indoor bathrooms.”

https://www.koat.com/article/space-groups-appeal-space/43110812

MENAUL PROPERTY  BEING LOOKED AT FOR  GARBAGE TRANSFER STATION

In addition to the Dawn Legacy Pointe plan to establish and operate a “safe outdoor space” at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE  to provide a tent encampment for 50 women who are homeless and who are “sex-trafficking victims”, the city’s Solid Waste Department wants to use 1 of the 2 adjoining city owned parcels  of land for a garbage transfer station.  The transfer station would allow individual city trash trucks to drop off their loads so larger vehicles could then transport the garbage to the landfill. It has been reported that while the city  has looked at other sites for the garbage transfer station, the Menaul property is the only location currently under consideration. Solid Waste spokeswoman Emily Moore said  the city has not taken steps necessary as of yet  to open a transfer station, such as seeking the requisite zone change or the state permit needed for such a facility.

Both KOAT Channel 7 and KRQE News 13 have reported that city bought the 14-acre property on the Northwest corner of the interchange for $6.8 million with the intention of turning it into a solid waste transfer station. There are concerns about the school, businesses, and hotels just across the street as  well as the cemetery next door.

Albuquerque Solid Waste Director Matthew Whelan  had this to say:

“It’s a great location because it’s centralized in the city and it’s near both of the freeways.  … And, by having a centralized location, not only are you going to save time, you’re going to save truck wear and tear, and you’re going to save emissions because now we’re just going to be putting the refuse there, and they’re going to be sending one truck to the landfill.  … Our goal is to make it more appealing looking  …  [This one] … will look like a normal industrial building, you know, it’ll be, like, brown. It’ll have landscaping. … It’ll be,  it won’t be like an open pit where we’re just dumping into.”

The Santa Barbara Martineztown Neighborhood Association and Crown Plaza Hotel,  two of the appellants  of the Dawn Legacy Point Safe Outdoor Space at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE, are also strongly opposed to the city’s plans for a garbage transfer station at the same location.

Loretta Naranjo Lopez, president of the Santa Barbara Martineztown Neighborhood Association had this to say about the garbage transfer station:

“They’re hiding this from us and they’re not talking to us at all. … And, we’re outraged. I would be asking all these people here, what do you want to see here before they even consider it?  … We’re already dealing with the freeway. We have done a health impact statement study and it says 10 miles out, the impact to our health is bad from the freeway. Anything added to it is just going to be a catastrophe. …  Every 30 seconds, a [city garbage]truck coming down Menaul and people having their funeral services at the Sunset Memorial with all that noise [is a concern]. 

Joani Jones, general manager of the Crown Plaza Hotel, which sits just across Interstate 25 from the property said this:

“We’re the heart of the city. The Midtown area is truly in the heart of the city,” … We don’t need the smell. We don’t need people to see that.”

The nearby Stronghurst Neighborhood Association is also opposed to both the Safe Outdoor Space and the garbage transfer station being located at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE.   Bill Sabatini is a very well know and highly respected business person in Albuquerque and he is the president of  Stronghurst Neighborhood Association.  He said  local business owners and others opposing the city’s plans have been meeting for months.

Sabatini said he would like to see the city establish the safe outdoor space and as well as the transfer station in another part of town. He said his organization and those he represents believes that a safe outdoor space will bring more unhoused to the area.  He also said a garbage transfer station will be a waste of prime real estate.  Sabatini argued that the site could be a showcase for Albuquerque given its location near several hotels and two interstates.

Bill Sabatini had this to say this about the garbage transfer station:

“It’s a bad idea; it’s a dumb idea. … It’s just totally inappropriate for here. … We know it’s not going to smell,  they have figured out ways to do that,  but the amount of traffic, truck traffic, from the entire east side of the city to that location is ungodly.  … That’s just not a good location.  That’s a terrible location to put something of that nature right in the middle of the city – (it’s) a highly visible location! … It’s a perfect place to make a positive statement about Albuquerque. …  There could be a lot of things that happen here that could be much more beneficial. One idea, for instance, is this would be a great location for either a history museum or some kind of education center.”

Links to the quoted news sources are here:

https://www.koat.com/article/city-wants-to-build-trash-transfer-station-at-the-big-i/41067692

https://www.krqe.com/news/albuquerque-metro/its-a-dumb-idea-martineztown-residents-say-garbage-transfer-station-bad-fit-for-neighborhood/

https://www.abqjournal.com/2561741/city-could-use-menaul-property-for-garbage-transfer-station.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Only in the screwed up “Burque World” of Mayor Tim Keller can it be imagined that  2 adjoining lots of prime commercial property own by the city worth upwards of $7 million would be used for a Safe Outdoor Space  for  a tent encampment for women who are “sex-trafficking victims” and then the city would  construct and run  a “garbage transfer station” next to it.  Now both the Safe Outdoor Space and the Solid Waste Transfer station will literally border on the West of the Menaul Metropolitan Redevelopment Area. The optics are so very representative of the kind of failed  Mayor Tim Keller really is and how messed up he operates and thinks.

First, Mayor Keller advocates for “Safe Outdoor Spaces” and sneaks $950,000 in his general fund budget which the City Council haplessly agrees to and allocates. The general public has legitimate concerns that Safe Outdoor Space homeless tent encampments will become crime-infested nuisances, such was the case with Coronado Park. The homeless crisis will not be solved by the city but must be managed with permanent housing assistance and service programs, not nuisance tent encampments.

It’s Keller’s sneaky conduct like this and lack of communication and transparency and ignoring the general public that has resulted in Mayor Tim Keller and his Administration being viewed as very heavy handed and incompetent in dealing with the homeless crisis. In August of last year, the city released the Citizen Perception Survey.  The survey found that 70% of citizens surveyed rate the city poorly for its performance in dealing with the homeless crisis.  This includes 41% who gave city hall the lowest possible rating.  Meanwhile, only 9% gave the city’s homelessness response a favorable review. In other words, 7 times more people rate the city poorly on the issue of the homeless  than offer a positive assessment.

Second, Mayor Keller takes steps asking for 100 amendments to the Integrated Development Ordinance with one amendment allowing 2 Safe Outdoor Spaces in each of the 9 City Council Districts for a total of 18.  The amendments pass on the slimmest 5-4 vote.  When the City Council realizes the mistake they had made as a result of major public outrage and push back, the City Council seeks to reverse course, votes to defund the financing and votes to  remove Safe Outdoor Spaces as a permitted use but votes 5-4 for repeal.  Keller vetoes the repeal and the defunding despite public opposition and outrage claiming he was elected to make the hard decision essentially ignoring the will of the voters and not wanting to admit how very wrong his policy actually is and the damage it will do.

Third, Keller’s own Family and Community Services Department and Planning Department Officials go out of their way to give preferential treatment and financial aid to the applicants for a Safe Outdoor Space for unhoused woman who are “sex-trafficking victims”. Never mind the fact that victims of sex trafficking need stable and permanent housing and services and placing such women in tents to live is very degrading and revictimizes them again.  Safe Outdoor Space city sanctioned homeless encampments are not just an issue of “not in my back yard,” but one of legitimate anger and mistrust by the public against city elected officials and department employees who have mishandled the city’s homeless crisis and who are determined to allow them despite strong public opposition.

Fourth, the Safe Outdoor Space tent encampment to house victims of sex trafficking and the solid was transfer station will now be immediately west of the Metropolitan Redevelopment Area.  Both will likely destroy all efforts to revitalize the Menaul corridor and make the city a magnet for the homeless.

With any luck, Tim Keller will move on sometime  mid-second term, something he has twice, first  as a State Senator and then as State Auditor, because the city cannot afford 3 more years of his failed leadership and hapless zoning changes.

On March 1 and March 2  KOB News 4 staff reporter Giuli Frendak reported on how the City of Albuquerque is moving  forward with its plans to transform hotels and motels into housing units for low income housing. The plan is part of Mayor Tim Keller’s Housing First plan to address what he claims is a crisis in low income housing for the poor and near homeless.  Following is the full Channel 4 report:

“The City of Albuquerque is asking local hotels and motels to play a role in one of its creative ideas to bring more housing units online quicker, and at a lower cost. 

The city recently pushed out a request for information from any and all property owners who might be interested in selling. The city would then take the lead in renovating them into housing units.

“We’re just inviting property owners to submit some information to us about their property,” said Lisa Huval, deputy director of Housing in the Family and Community Services Department. “Things like number of rooms, what is the current zoning, are there kitchenettes, what is the condition of the property.”

The city is casting a wide net and won’t rule out any property size or location. 

“I think for some folks maybe that property just isn’t producing the level of income it needs to be producing, maybe they’re interested in getting into a different line of business,” said Huval. “That could really be a range of properties across the city.”

The approach is just one piece of the city’s Housing Forward initiative it launched last fall.

“We know we have a housing crisis and part of solving the housing crisis is urgency,” said Huval. “We have to be able to bring more units online more quickly. This isn’t going to solve all of it, but this will help solve a chunk of it if we can do it well.”

Huval says communities in California, Texas, and Colorado have already used this model, and have proven conversion can be successful. 

If you’re an owner considering selling your property, you can find the city’s request for information here.”

The link to the full news report is here:

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-moves-forward-with-plan-to-transform-hotels-motels-into-housing-units/

KELLER’S “HOUSING FORWARD ABQ” PLAN

It was on November 10, 2022 that Mayor Tim Keller announced his “Housing Forward ABQ” plan to add 5,000 housing units to the existing housing supply by 2025.  Keller called his plan “transformative” and it includes updates to Albuquerque’s Integrated Development Ordinance (IDO)  to carry it out and motel conversion plan.

MOTEL CONVERSIONS

Mayor Keller’s “Housing Forward ABQ” places great emphasis on “motel conversions”.  A  zoning change already enacted by the city council in early 2022 year eased the process for city-funded motel conversions by allowing microwaves or hot plates to serve as a substitute for the standard requirement that every kitchen have a cooking stove or oven.   “Motel conversions” includes affordable housing where the City’s Family & Community Services Department will  acquire and renovate existing motels to develop low-income affordable housing options. Keller’s plan calls for hotel or motel conversions to house 1,000 people by 2025.

The Keller Administration proclaims that motel conversions are a critical strategy for addressing the city’s housing shortage. The city proclaims motels conversions are a simpler, lower-cost alternative to ground-up construction. It will require city social services to regularly assist residents.  The homeless or the near homeless would be offered the housing likely on a first come first served basis and with rules and regulations they will have to agree to.

The existing layout of the motels makes it cost-prohibitive to renovate them into living units with full sized kitchens.  An Integrated Development Ordinance amendment provides an exemption for affordable housing projects funded by the city, allowing kitchens to be small, without full-sized ovens and refrigerators. It will require city social services to regularly assist residents.  The homeless or the near homeless would be offered the housing.

CITY BUYS “SURE STAY”  HOTEL

One area of the city that has been targeted in particular by the Keller Administration for motel conversions is “Hotel Circle” in the North East Heights. The area is considered  a “high crime”  volume area  because of the thousands of APD calls for service to deal with crime at the motels. Located in the area are not only a number of motels but it is also  the largest shopping area in SE and NE Albuquerque near I-40. The businesses in the area include Target, Office Depot, Best Buy, Home Store, PetCo and the Mattress Store and restaurants such as Sadies, the Owl Café, and Applebee’s and other businesses.

On February 11 it was reported that the City of Albuquerque has executed a purchase agreement for the purchase of the Sure Stay hotel located at 10330 Hotel NE for $5.7 million to convert the 104-room hotel into 100 efficiency units. The $5.7 million purchase price for the 104-unit complex translates into $53,807.69 per unit ($5.7 Million ÷ 104 = $53,807.69 per unit). At a December 6, 2022  meeting on motel conversions, city officials said that the city’s estimated cost is $100,000 per unit to fix up or remodel existing motels.

Therefore, using the city’s own estimated remodeling costs for the Sure Stay Motel, an additional $10 Million will be needed to remodel the motel for low income housing. ($100,000 per unit X 100 efficiency apartments = $10 Million). Therefore, the entire Sure Stay conversion project will have an estimated cost of $15,700,000.  ($5.7 purchase cost + $10 Million remodeling cost = $15,700,000)

The City Department of Family & Community Services purchased the Sure Stay Hotel by using Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funding of $3,059,662.12 in Community Development Block Grant and available funding from the city’s  Public Facilities monies and from Foreclosure Prevention  monies for a total property purchase of $5.7 million.  The Department of Family and Community Services submitted a request to the HUD Albuquerque Field Office for the release of CARES and HOME American Rescue Plan funding to be used to purchase Sure Stay Hotel and the renovation project for the permanent housing with supportive services.

City officials said the purchase should close this spring and said the project’s total cost, including necessary renovations of the Sure Stay hotel will not be known until later this year as the city still must put the work out to bid. The goal is to have the housing open within a year. City officials have said funding is available for at least one additional motel purchase and is asking the New Mexico Legislature for funding.

CITY’S MOTEL CONVERSION PLAN EXPLAINED

It was On December 6, 2022, the City’s Family and Community Services Department and the Planning Department held a public meeting at the Albuquerque Convention Center to discuss the Keller Administration’s motel conversions plans.   In attendance to present the program were Family Community Service Director Carol Pierce,  Deputy  Director Lisa Huval and Planning Department Officials.  Notably absent from the meeting was Mayor Tim Keller with no explanation given. Not a single Albuquerque City Councilor attended the presentation.

The City presented a short “power point” slide to the audience entitled “THE PATH FORWARD”.  The power point said in part that there are “several possible paths all of which the Department of Family and community services is exploring” to deal with the housing shortage.

Those options listed in the power point were:

“The city can acquire motels, contract with a contractor/architect to complete renovations and then identify an entity to own and operate the facility through a Request for Proposal (RFP), which is the city bidding process.

The city can acquire motels and then identify and entity to rehabilitate, own and operate through an RFP process.  The RFP would include funding to rehab the motel.

The city can use an RFP to select one or more entities to acquire, rehab, own and operate a motel.

Currently, [the]  City has funding available to complete at least two motel conversions.”

City officials with the Planning Department and the Family and Community Services Department said that the city’s estimated cost will be  $100,000 per unit to fix up or remodel existing motels. The estimated cost per unit is ostensibly  determined by the total cost of the remodeling and design plans to repurpose and entire structure or motel complex and bring it up to city construction codes (electrical, plumbing, and water and sewers codes)  and complete clean up and remediation preparation of the structure and property.  The total number of units is then divided into the total cost of the remodeling and repurposing of the structure itself.

City officials identified the “qualifying incomes” of the population that would be served by the motel conversions in terms of income levels.  Those qualifying income levels listed were “Supplemental Social Security Income” recipients, “Social Security Disability” recipients, “Warehouse Workers”, “In Home Care” workers and “Tipped Workers”.   The power point noted that the fair market value for an efficiency apartment in Albuquerque is approximately $666 per month.

According to the power point, the monthly cost of $666 is “naturally affordable for single adults who earn $27, 000 a year” which is 50% of the city’s Median Income level.  It was noted that some of the units will be for subsidized or for affordable housing for those making $16,000 a year which is 30% of the city’s Median Income.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

One big take away from the City’s plans for motel conversions is that they are not intended to be used as “homeless shelters” such as the new Gateway Homeless Shelter on Gibson, but there is no guarantee that will not happen.  The intent is that those who will be housed in them must have some sort of income, either through social security or other government assistance or be gainfully employed, and they must pay rent. The city has yet to publicly identify the screening criteria that will be utilized for occupants and the minimum income levels.

The second and most serious takeaway from the city’s plans for motel conversions is that the city’s estimated cost of $100,000 per unit to fix up or remodel existing motels is likely a huge waste of taxpayer money and financing.  Mayor Keller and the city’s announced goal is to purchase enough motels and add 1,000 units to be made available by 2025.  If the city in fact spends $100,000 per unit to fix up or remodel 1,000 units as it has stated, the estimated cost for the planned 1,000 units  will be $100,000,000 not including purchase price of the motels.

Mayor Tim Keller at one of his telephone “town hall” meetings a few weeks ago  announced that he wanted to purchase all the “derelict motels” on Central and convert them into low-income housing. It was a statement that took many of the public  off guard and a reflection of his sure ignorance.

There are upwards of 150 motels along Central from the West side all the way to the Eastside of Albuquerque to Tijeras Canyon.  Central is in fact historic Route 66.  Many of those motels were constructed decades ago when Central was part of Route 66. Simply put, many times it is cheaper and makes more sense to demolish and rebuild.

Approximately 15 years ago, the city’s Safe City Strike Force took civil code enforcement action against a number of the 150 motels up and down central with many ordered shut down.  The motel owners were ordered to bring their properties into code compliance that usually cost thousands before they were allowed to reopen.

The Safe City Strike Force was responsible for the demolition of at least seven (7) blighted motels that were beyond repair. Those motels were demolished because it was cheaper and made more sense to tear them down rather than spends hundreds to remodel. The Central motels that the Safe City Strike Force took action against include the Gaslight (demolished), The Zia Motel (demolished), The Royal Inn (demolished), Route 66 (demolished), the Aztec Motel (demolished), the Hacienda, Cibola Court, Super-8 (renovated by owner), the Travel Inn (renovated by owner), Nob Hill Motel (renovated by owner), the Premier Motel (renovated by owner) the De Anza (purchased by City for historical significance), the No Name, the Canyon Road (demolished), Hill Top Lodge, American Inn (demolished), the El Vado (purchased by City for historical significance), the Interstate Inn (demolished).

Simply put, Mayor Keller’s “motel conversion” plan is severely lacking on many levels. There has been a total lack of transparency by the city with the public and it has been very sketchy and short on details as to what motels have been targeted, the projected overall funding for the program, no details as to the private-public partnerships and no identifying those in the real estate and development community and the construction industry the Keller administration is working with.

The city is spending between $60 million and upwards of $100 million a year on affordable and supportive housing.  Over the last two years, Keller  has increased funding to the Family Community Services Department for assistance to the homeless with $35,145,851 million spent in fiscal year 2021 and $59,498,915 million being spent in fiscal 2022  with the city adopting a “housing first” policy. In 2021, the City spent $20.7 million for affordable and supportive housing.  In the 2022-2023 budget, the City spent $42,598,361 total for affordable housing and community contracts with a major emphasis on permanent housing for chronically homeless. It is $24,353,064 more than the  2021-2022 fiscal year.

The biggest unanswered question is does the city have any business whatsoever  going into the “hotel conversion” business and begin operating such facilities in addition to what it is already being spent?  It is not at all likely that the city has a realistic plan in place to achieve its goal of 1,000-units relying on motel conversions.

What is down right troubling is that the City Council has been derelict in its oversight of Mayor Keller when it comes to his motel conversion plans and appears to be 100% on board with it. The Albuquerque City Council is essentially giving  Keller a blank check to run around town with a smile on his face and a grin in his voice to buy all the derelict motels he wants along Central.