On October 31, Halloween, former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico Governor.  Trump made the announcement early Monday Holloween morning on his “Truth Social”  media platform and said this:

“New Mexico has an absolutely terrible Governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham. She is WEAK on Crime, bad on the Border where illegal aliens are pouring into our Country at record numbers, & has almost no support from Law Enforcement, which fully understands what a disaster she has been. Also, Drugs & Human Trafficking are OUT OF CONTROL. The good news is that Republican Nominee Mark Ronchetti is outstanding. He will be tough & smart on Crime, the Border & everything else. Mark as my Total Endorsement!”

Ronchetti has  received high-profile endorsements from former Vice President Mike Pence, Virgina  Governor Glenn Youngkin and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, with all 3 traveling to New Mexico to make their endorsements.

The Ronchetti campaign responded  to Trump’s support in a statement and said this:

“Mark is supported by people from all walks of life and all different viewpoints – including Democratic sheriffs, former Libertarian presidential candidate and New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and now former President Trump. With crime at record levels and just 1 in 5 students learning at grade level, it’s not hard to see that, as governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham has made things worse and New Mexico needs to go in a different – and better – direction.”

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham released the following statement in response to Trump’s endorsement:

“Donald Trump’s endorsement of Mark Ronchetti emphasizes the clear choice in this race: I will keep delivering on the issues that matter to New Mexico families, while Mark Ronchetti would bring Donald Trump’s extreme national Republican policies to New Mexico. 

For the past four years, I have kept New Mexicans and their families at the heart of every decision I have made as governor. Together, we have made historic investments in public education and public safety, diversified and grown our economy, and expanded access to affordable health care. We are now the first state in the country to offer nearly universal child care and tuition-free higher education. We have a 14-year-low unemployment rate, have added 32,000 jobs in the last year, and have record surpluses supported by growing industries like clean energy, film, and cannabis. We are making strides in lowering the cost of healthcare and making every New Mexico community safer. 

My opponent would set us backward. Mark Ronchetti has made it clear that he will bring a far-right Trump agenda to the Roundhouse. Like Donald Trump, he would attempt to drain funding from public schools, rip away health care from New Mexicans, and ban abortion in our state. On Election Day, New Mexicans will stand up to continue our progress and stop Donald Trump’s chosen candidate.”

Links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/former-president-trump-endorses-mark-ronchetti/

https://www.koat.com/article/former-president-donald-trump-endorses-mark-ronchetti/41826891

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545291/trump-endorses-ronchetti-in-nm-governor-race.html

SMOTHERMON INSISTS RONCHETTI CONFESSED HE WOULD BAN ABORTION

Legacy Church Senior Pastor Steve Smothermon has for a second time exerted himself into the race for New Mexico  Governor.  On November 1, it was reported that Smothermon in a second  Sunday sermon to his congregation is saying that Ronchetti publicly “misrepresented” a previous discussion between the 2 of them about abortion and that Ronchetti does indeed plan on banning all abortions in New Mexico if elected Governor.

Smothermon during a recent sermon  cited Ronchetti’s remarks during  the October 17 televised debate with Governor Lujan Grisham.  Ronchetti was asked about whether he had previously told Smothermon  his goal would be to “end abortion in New Mexico.”  Ronchetti responded by saying this:

“You’d have to ask Pastor Smothermon that, but I told him everything I’ve told everybody else in this [race]  and that is that I am pro-life, but I believe this is a very personal issue and we need to treat it as such.”

Ronchetti has also said in interviews he has never called for a complete abortion ban.

Smothermon in his recent  sermon  disputed Ronchetti and said the church’s vetting of candidates is not intended to be confidential. Smothermon told his congregation:

“Folks, I assure you, he told me exactly what I said. Exactly. But he got on TV and said he didn’t … It doesn’t matter what we say we believe, it matters what we do and that determines what we believe.”

In his recent sermon, Smothermon  was as also very  critical of Lujan Grisham. He called the governor  a “murderer” and “reprobate” for her stance on abortion.

During his campaign, Ronchetti has called for abortion to be banned after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with allowable exceptions in cases of rape, incest and when a mother’s life is in jeopardy. He is also calling for  a constitutional amendment for voters to decide if abortions should be banned that would require legislative approval.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for her part opposes limiting abortion rights. During the 2021  legislative session, she successively lobbied  lawmakers last year to repeal a long-dormant 1969 state law that banned abortion in most situations.

That law would have been reimposed in New Mexico after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned its landmark 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to an abortion and empowering states to set new restrictions. During the October 12 live debate on KOAT TV 7, the Govenor highlighted her signing of a bill that repealed New Mexico’s 1969 criminal abortion law outlawing abortions  and  she said:

“Women have a choice in New Mexico today because I’m governor”

The link to quoted news source material is  here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545151/pastor-says-ronchetti-would-ban-abortion-ex-sermon-repeats-claim-abo.html

THE FIRST TIME RECALLED

It was on July 10, that the very conservative Republican pastor Reverend Steven Smothermon of Legacy Church, during his Sunday church service, that Smothermon said from his pulpit:

I know Mark Ronchetti came out, and some people are very upset, because he said I think [abortion] is reasonable up to 15 weeks. . . I know a lot of us got mad. I did too. I had a long talk with him for hours. I said, dude right out of the gate you blew it and he said here’s what I was trying to do. I know what you were trying to do but you didn’t do it and here’s what he said.

He said, ‘listen, I just want to start with getting rid of partial birth abortion in the whole state’–which we should be happy with–and he said ‘but I can’t just go in and do it 100 percent because we won’t ever get elected.’ He said I just want to start but his goal would be to end abortion in New Mexico. Just so you know.

How do I know that? Because I talked to him for hours and I said I won’t support anybody that believes in killing a baby ever. I don’t care how much you are right on other issues. That one issue is enough for me because if you don’t believe in life, something’s wrong.

The full video of the Smothemon sermon can be viewed with comments on Ronchetti starting at 27:10.

https://subsplash.com/legacynm/media/mi/+d3rwjh2

Ronchetti’s campaign spokesman Enrique Knell was quick to respond with a statement in an attempt to explain Ronchetti’s position and distance Ronchetti from Smotherman. According to the statement:

“[Mark Ronchetti told Smothermon] exactly what he has told everyone else. … He wants to end late-term abortion in New Mexico by limiting abortion to the first 15 weeks. … His position has been clear and consistent. [Smothermon] is free to express his position on these issues”.

Knell also took a shot at Lujan Grisham, calling her an extremist who is “pushing abortion up to the moment of birth.”

In an interview with the Santa Fe New Mexican, Smothermon tried to backtrack and placed a positive spin on what he said from the pulpit about Ronchetti. Smothermon said this:

“Mark was clear with me that he is personally pro-life and what he intends to do as governor, which is identical to what he says in his campaign commercial. … My comments were not intended to convey his strategy as governor. … I believe Mark is committed to ending the terrible practice of late-term abortion in our state, a practice that the current governor sadly embraces.”

The link to the quoted news source material is here:

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/conservative-pastor-knocks-ronchetti-on-abortion-moderate-stance/article_925e9254-0471-11ed-949a-63b8453bc24b.html

EARLY VOTING TURN OUT

On October 27,  it was reported that upwards of 12% of registered voters in New Mexico have already cast their ballots in the Nov. 8 election.  More than 165,000 ballots have been cast so far, according to figures released by the Secretary of State’s Office.  About 55% of those who have cast ballots so far are Democrats. Republicans had cast 33% of the votes and independents about 11%.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2543891/nm-turnout-hits-12-so-far.html

On October 29, the Albuquerque Journal released its second and final poll in the Governors race that revealed that Governor Lujan Grisham has an 8% lead over Make Ronchetti. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham  polled at 50%, Republican Mark Ronchetti  polled at 42%, Undecided polled at  5% and Libertarian Karen Bedonie polled at 3%.

Among the political parties, Governor MLJ has 87% support of Democrats while Rochetti has support of 9% of Democrat. Among Republicans, Ronchetti has 88% support among Republicans and Gov. MLG has 5% support of Republicans. Amongst Independents, Gov. MLG has 42% support while Ronchetti has 37% support.

The link to the final Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

You gotta  wonder given the manner in which Der Führer Trump made his  endorsement if Mark Ronchetti even knew it was going to happen and if he asked for it.  Ronchetti has tried to distance himself from Trump during the campaign.  Ronchetti once lampooned Trump during a public event at the University of New Mexico.  Ronchetti said this at the event:

“I’m a Christian conservative who used to be a Republican until the “Orange One”. I’m afraid that has taken a part of my soul, and that’s not coming back.”

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/with-trump-at-bay-ronchetti-cant-be-counted-out/article_bdc8fae2-fc65-11ec-a263-473f12317352.html

Ronchetti faced questions from other Republicans during this year’s primary race about his loyalty to Trump, with some GOP rivals citing Ronchetti’s  referring to Trump as the “orange one” during a 2019 climate symposium. In response, Ronchetti’s campaign said the comments about Trump were “old jokes” taken out of context.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2545291/trump-endorses-ronchetti-in-nm-governor-race.html

Given what Ronchetti  said about Trump in public, his  late endorsement of Ronchetti is very puzzling if not downright suspicious. Trump is known for going after  Republican elected officials and candidates  who do not support him, and New Mexico Republicans are no different. On May 25, 2016 appearing at a campaign rally in Albuquerque when he was running for President, Trump unleashed a blistering assault on then Republican Governor Susana Martinez  who skipped the event. Martinez had been critical of Trump and refuse  to endorse him for President  expressing  concerns about him.   Trump  attacked Republican  Governor Susana Martinez saying she was “not doing her job.”  At the time,  Martinez was considered the most prominent Republican Hispanic woman in American politics and she was the chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association. Trump faulted Martinez by falsely asserting she was allowing Syrian refugees to settle in the state, and blamed her for Albuquerque’s unemployment numbers as well as the increase in the number of New Mexico residents on food stamps. “It’s your governor’s fault … We have to get your governor and get going. She’s got to do a better job, O.K.? Your governor has got to do a better job.” 

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/26/us/politics/donald-trump-gov-susana-martinez-new-mexico.html

It is painfully obvious that Ronchetti  downplayed Der Führer Trump’s  endorsement when his campaign said “Mark is supported by people from all walks of life and all different viewpoints – including Democratic sheriffs, former Libertarian presidential candidate and New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and now former President Trump.”   By mentioning Democrats,  Republicans and Libertarians in the same breath, Ronchetti clumsily  attempted  a political pivot by trying to say he has a cross appeal, which he does not.

Simply put, Der Führer Trump’s endorsement has done Ronchetti far more harm than good and he should have rejected it if he did not ask for it.   It’s very likely Ronchetti already has Trump supporters voting for him given the fact that the second and last Albuquerque Journal poll revealed that  Ronchetti has  88% support among Republicans.  In order for Ronchtti to prevail, he needed strong cross over votes from Democrats and Independents. The only thing the Trump endorsement has accomplished is to galvanize and motivate Democrats to get out and vote for Governor Lujan Grisham.

The Trump endorsement and Ronchetti’s failure to reject it makes the Albuquerque Journal look very foolish.  Ronchetti  sought to distance himself from Trump in some ways, saying in response to the Albuquerque Journal candidate questionnaire this fall that he does not believe Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that he was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election.  Least anyone forgets, on October 23, the Albuquerque Journal  endorsed Mark Ronchetti for Governor as it trashed Governor Lujan Grisham. In its endorsement, the Journal  editor’s wrote in part:

“New Mexico is at a crossroads …  We simply cannot afford four more years of the same. …   We could not do this if Ronchetti agreed with or even waffled over whether the 2020 election was stolen; unlike most Republicans in the 2022 general election, he answered a straight up “no” when asked if he believed former President Trump’s Big Lie.”

Der Führer Trump has made it clear repeatedly that he will not endorse Republican’s unless they buy into his big lie that the 2020 election was stolen.  Trump is also  known to go after Repubican elected officials and candidates  who do not support him as evidence by his attack on New Mexico Republican Governor Susana Martinez.   The Trump endorsement likely means that Ronchetti lied to the Journal over if he believes the 2020 election was stolen.

Republican pastor Reverend Steven Smothermon’s recent  sermon  disputing  Ronchetti’s version of what he  told Smothermon in private has again  seriously harmed the Ronchetti campaign. With a pastor like Smothermon, you can be assured that nothing is sacred said to him in private, especially  when it comes from  lying politicians like Mark Ronchetti.

Given the fact that 55% of the 165,000 early votes  cast so far are Democrats and that the Governor has 87% support of Democrats in Journal poll, it likely she already has a considerable lead in the race.  It was reported only 33% of the votes cast are Republican with Ronchetti having  88% support among Republicans in the Journal poll.

Ronchetti’s acceptance of the  Trump endorsement and his private  confession to Pastor Steve Smother only confirms that Mark  Ronchetti will say and do whatever it takes, even lie, to be elected Governor.

The 2022 congressional races are the first to be held with newly drawn geographical districts after the New Mexico legislature redistricted all 3 congressional districts this year  based on the United States census data.

On October 31, the Albuquerque Journal published its first and only poll results in the states 3 congressional races. The poll in the 2^nd Congressional District between Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell and Democrat Gabe Vasquez  no doubt came as a very big shock to the political establishment in both the Democrat and Republican party establishments.

The results of the poll in the 1^st Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Michelle Garcia Homes and in the 3^rd Congressional District between incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez and Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson reveals that both incumbent democrats have very comfortable margins and they will likely be re elected.

2^nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: VASQUEZ LEADS HERRELL BY 2%

A Journal poll found that Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez has a  2% lead over incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell. The polling gives Vasquez 47% of likely voters supporting him while 45% favor Herrell with  8% of voters are undecided. The 2^nd Congressional District for decades has been dominated by very conservative southern New Mexico and has elected Republicans and was represented Republican Party State Chair Steve Pierce who while in congress was a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus.  After redistricting, the 2^nd Congressional District now  includes parts of Albuquerque’s West Side and South Valley,   which are decisively more progressive, and with progressive  Las Cruces, the district now leans Democrat.

Notwithstanding the closeness of the poll, and the fact that it falls within the polls 4.8% margin of error,  Democrat Vasquez clearly has the momentum on his side against a Republican incumbent.  With a full 13 days until the election, Vasquez could easily score a major upset over Harrell.

According to the Journal poll Vasquez has opened up a large lead among Hispanics in the district. He has the support of 61% of Hispanics while Harrell has  29% of Hispanics who  say they will vote for her.  Harrell has the support of 60% of Anglos in the district.

The 2^nd Congressional race has by far been the most expensive of the three House races. Herrell has raised over $4 million and Vasquez over $3.2 million.  Both Vasquez and Harrell have been hammering each other relentlessly airing television ads attacking the other and both claiming that each other is too extreme for the District.

The 2^nd Congressional District does lean conservative which is the reason Harrell is saying Vasquez is an extreme progressive Democrat alleging he would such down the oil ang gas industry in New Mexico, thousands would lose their jobs  and that he would defund the police.  Vasquez has portrayed Harrell as an extreme right wing Republican who has denied the September 11 terrorist attack, refused to vote to certify Joe Biden as President and who has sponsored legislation to nationally criminalize all abortions.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 2^nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Vasquez has the support of 46% of males who said they will vote while Harrell has 45%.  Vasquez has 48% of females who said they will vote while Harrell has 44%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Vasquez has the support of a whopping 61% of Hispanics which is more than double of Harrell’s  29%.  Harrell has the support of 60% of the Anglo vote while Vasquez has 34% of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Vasquez has 86% support of Democrats while Republican Harrell has  10% support of Democrats. Republican  Harrell has 89% support of Republicans while Democrat Vasquez has 5% support of Republicans.  Independents support Republican Harrell with 46% to Democrat Vasquez with 31%.

1^st  CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: STANSBURY LEADS GARCIA HOLMES BY 6%,

1^st Congressional Democrat US Representative Melanie Stansbury has a  48% to 42% lead over Republican candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes. The 6% gap between Stansbury and Garcia Holmes is much narrower than the most recent elections. Garcia Holmes lost the 2020 race to former Representative Deb Haaland by 16% points. In 2021, Deb Halland resigned from congress and  was appointed United State Interior Secretary by President Joe Biden.   Stansbury’s strongest support comes from Hispanics, who favor her 56% to 37%. She also has a wide lead among voters with a graduate degree  with 61% of those voters supporting  her.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1^st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll, Stansbury has the support of 45%  of males who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 48%.   Stansbury  has 51% of females who said they will vote while Garcia Holmes has 37%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Stansbury has the support of  56%  of Hispanics while Garcia Holmes  37% of Hispanics.  Garcia Holmes has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while Stanbury has 45%  of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Stansbury has 85% support of Democrats while Republican  Garcia Holmes   has 7% support of Democrats.   Republican Gracia Holmes has  87% support of Republicans while Democrat Stansbury  has 5% support of Republicans.  Independents support Republican Garcia Holmes with 42% compared to Democrat Stansbury with 39%.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific,  sample of 410  cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election.  All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% points.

3^rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICRT: LEDGER FERNANDEZ LEADS MARTINEZ JOHNSON BY 18%

According to the Journal poll 2 ^st Congressional Democrat US Representative Teresa Leger Fernández has a commanding lead with  53% to 35% advantage over Republican candidate Alexis Martinez Johnson.  Although both candidates are Hispanic woman, it is Leger Fernández who has  shored up support from women, 61%, and Hispanics, 68%.

DATA DOWN LOAD FOR 1^st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

GENDER: According to the Journal poll,  Leger Fernández  has the support of 44% of males who said they will vote while  Martinez Johnson has 47%.  Leger Fernández has 61% of females who said they will vote while Martinez Johnson has 25%.

ETHNICITY: When it comes to ethnicity, Leger Fernández has the support of  68%  of Hispanics while  Martinez Johnson  24% of Hispanics.   Leger Fernández  has the support of 46% of the Anglo vote while  Martinez Johnson has 42%  of the Anglo vote.

POLITICAL PARTY: Both candidates have the overwhelming support of their own political parties. Democrat Leger Fernández   has 89% support of Democrats while Republican Martinez Johnson  has 2% support of Democrats.   Republican Martinez Johnson has  88% support of Republicans while Democrat Leger Fernández  has 6% support of Republicans.  Independents support Democrat Leger Fernández with 40% compared to   Republican Martinez Johnson with 31%.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 27. The poll is based on a scientific,  sample of 434  cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll sample also includes people who have been registered to vote since 2021 and who said they will be votinfg in the upcoming election. All the interviews were done by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to those who did not initially answer the phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7% points.

The link to the full, unedited Albuquerque Journal article which include graphs is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544863/democrat-has-edge-in-race-for-us-house-seat.html

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

There is no doubt that 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Gabe  Vasquez and Republican Incumbent Yvette Herrell has national implications. The control of the U.S. House will be determined by a handful of congressional seats around the country. As it stands, national polls have Republicans projected to win back the United States House.  The 2nd Congressional District just may turn out to be one of the brightest spots for Democrats in the nation come November 8.

The second and final long anticipated Albuquerque Journal  poll is in. It shows Democrat incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has a strong lead in the race and she is likely on her way to be elected to a second 4 year  term on November 8.  The Governors  support  amongst voters increase by 3% and her lead increased by 1% while Ronchetti’s support increased by 7% over the last Journal poll taken in August.  The Governor has maintained her core support of Hispanics and woman despite her opponent spending millions on some of the most negative and nasty false ads.

The final results of the Albuquerque Journal poll are:

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham – 50%

Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti – 42%

Undecided – 5%

Libertarian Karen Bedonie – 3%

The link to the final Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

The poll was conducted from October 20 through October  27. The poll is based on a scientific, statewide sample of 1,254 voterswho cast ballots in the 2018 an/or the 2020general election and who said they are likely to vote in the 2022 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8% points.

The August Journal poll was essentially identical and those results were:

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham – 47%

Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti – 40%

Undecided –  8%

Libertarian Karen Bedonie – 5%

The link to the August  Albuquerque Journal  poll article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527965/lujan-grisham-has-7point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

DATA DOWNLOAD

Among the political parties, Governor MLJ has 87% support of Democrats while Rochetti has support of 9% of Democrat. Among Republicans, Ronchetti has 88% support among Republicans and Gov. MLG has 5% support of Republicans. Amongst Independents, Gov. MLG has 42% support while Ronchetti has 37% support.

Among men, Gov. MLG has 46% support of men and Ronchetti has 46% support of men.  Among woman, Gov. MLG has 55% support and Ronchetti has 38% support.

Among Hispanics, Governor MLG has 62% support and Ronchetti has 30% support. Among Anglos, Governor MLG has 43% support while Ronchetti has 49% support.

As was the case with the August Journal poll, Gov.Lujan Grisham’s lead is due to her broad support among female voters and Hispanic voters.

According to the latest Journal poll, Hispanic women supported Lujan Grisham by an overwhelming margin with 65% saying  they planned to vote for Gov. MLG or had already done so,  and 29% said  they intended to support Ronchetti.

Ronchetti had strong support among Anglo men.  56% said the will be voting for  Ronchetti  and 35% said they were voting for  Lujan Grisham. White women were more narrowly split, but were slightly more likely to support Gov. MLG.

Educational levels were also found to have major differences.  The Journal poll found that  voters who graduated from college and those with graduate degrees said the were likely to vote for  Lujan Grisham than Ronchetti. Voters with some college experience and those with high school degrees, in contrast, were almost evenly split between Gov. MLG and Ronchetti.

The Journal poll found that 20% of independent voters polled  said they were still undecided which is  a much larger percentage than among Republicans and Democrats.

Voters in the Albuquerque metro area, the north central region and the Las Cruces/southwest New Mexico polled said they  were more likely to vote for Lujan Grisham while most voters surveyed in the conservative east side of the state said they will vote for  Ronchetti.

The part of the state where voters are  evenly divided between the two candidates was  the northwest corner, where the GOP stronghold of San Juan County is partially offset by Democratic-leaning McKinley and Cibola counties.

VOTER REGISTATION

According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows: Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,  Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %, No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %, Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 % Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

 FOLLOW THE MONEY

The 2022 Governor’s race will likely be the most expensive in state history. Lujan Grisham has reported raising more than $11.1 million for her reelection bid, while spending about $9.8 million of that amount. Ronchetti  has received more than $7.8 million in contributions, while spending roughly $5.3 million.

The New Mexico Governor’s race is considered as one of the most competitive of the 36 gubernatorial races nationwide.  Political  groups affiliated with national Democratic and Republican parties are  spending millions on  TV ads in New Mexico.  During the final 12 days until Election Day, outside groups are planning to spend more than $3 million on ads backing Lujan Grisham’s campaign and  outside groups are planning  on spending $1.4 million on Ronchetti’s behalf.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Governor Lujan Grisham is no doubt breathing a great sigh of relief with the latest Albuquerque Journal poll showing her leading by 8%   after the October 17-19  Trafalgar group poll gave Republican Mark  Ronchetti a 1%  lead in the race with 46.6%  of the vote compared to 45.5% for Governor  Michelle Lujan Grisham. The Trafalgar poll was the first and only  poll ever to show Ronchetti in the lead with nearly 3% margin of error.  The Telfalgar poll  was seriously defective with 58% of people who responded to the poll being  Anglo and only 31% were Hispanic.

Prior Trafalgar poll and as of October 11, there were 5 polls taken that showed Democrat Governor Lujan Grisham leading Republican Mark Ronchetti by as low of only 3% and as high as 16%. Averaging out all 5 of the previous polls reflected that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham polling average is 48.8% compared to Ronchetti’s 39.2%. Ronchetti never once surpass 40% to 43% in any of the polling which is essentially the Republican base in New Mexico. Lujan Grisham  busted the magic 50% plus one in only 1 polls.

In New Mexico, Democrats have the clear advantage with 44.6 % of the registered vote to Republicans with 30.8% of the vote. When it comes to New Mexico politics and statewide races, the old saying is so very true that “Republicans win when Democrats stay home”.  Republicans tend to have higher voter participation percentages out of sure survival instinct. The significance of the independent voters also cannot be overstated in that they represent 22.5% of all registered voters in the state.

RONCHETTI’S NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS

Ronchetti has severely attacked Gov. MLG  for high violent crime rates, her executive order allowing more than 700 inmates to be released early due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a $150,000 settlement with a former campaign spokesman.  The governor for her part have has defended her record by highlighting an improving state economy that has seen the state unemployment rate drop to 4.2% in September, the lowest in more than a decade but still among the highest in the nation.

During the last 3 weeks, Republican Mark Ronehetti has gone into “warp drive”  with vicious,  negative and even false campaign ads to attack Governor Lujan Grisham. The ads have become so pervasive with Ronchetti ads running two and three times, one right after the other. Given that Ronchetti is still running behind Gov. MLG  in the polls, he will probably ramp it up and  double down even further given who his campaign manager is.

Least anyone forgets, Jay McCleskey is Republican Mark Ronchetti’s campaign manager and political consultant. Jay McCleskey is the go-to guy for anyone who is Republican running for office willing to spend and do whatever it takes to win an election at any and all costs.  The only way McClesky knows how to win a race is to go negative and into the gutter.  Jay McCleskey is New Mexico’s version of Lee Atwater or Karl Rove, two of the most despicable right wing Republican bottom feeders and political consultants and strategists for the Republican Party.  McClesky is known for his negative slash-and-burn tactics to disparage and viciously malign Democrats at all levels and he has been very successful at it in New Mexico for the last 20 years making a very lucrative living.

HOME STRETCH

Nine days are left before the November 8 election and in any statewide race, nine days can be an eternity in politics to get out the vote. Voters have also seen an extreme ramping up of negative campaign ads that are even worse than what has been going on, especially from Republican Mark Ronchetti.

Early voting has already begun and reports are that  upwards of 16% have already voted.  Early voting turn out is considered high which likely favors Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.   If you have not already done so, please vote!

On October 27, after a lengthy 13 day jury trial that resulted in the conviction of one or 3 defendants charged in the heinous murder of 10-year old Victoria Martens, Second Judicial District Judge Cindy Leos sentenced Fabian Gonzales, age 38, to 37½ years in prison in the 2016 strangulation murder and dismemberment of 10-year-old Victoria Martens.  Gonzales was found guilty of 1 count of child abuse resulting in death, 7  counts of tampering with evidence and 1 count of conspiracy for his role in  Victoria’s killing.  The murder is considered the most horrific child abuse case in Albuquerque history given the age of the child and how she was dismembered and her body burned in a bathtub.

Gonzales did not speak at his sentencing hearing and showed no emotion as Judge Leos pronounced his sentence. Under his sentence, Gonzales could be eligible for parole after serving half his sentence provided he serves his sentence without further incidents while in prison with good behavior. Gonzales has been in jail for 5 years while awaiting trial and will be given credit for the time served against his sentence.

Judge Leos said she agreed with prosecutors that Gonzales was directly responsible for Victoria’s death.  Before passing his sentence Judge Leos said this:

“If it were not for Mr. Gonzales, there is no question in my mind that Victoria Martens would still be alive. …  He was the conduit for her death, and clearly the jury agreed with that. … [Gonzales] was aware of Jessica Kelly’s propensity for violence, as well as her paranoia, on the date that Victoria was ultimately murdered. …  I do not believe that his responsibility in Victoria’s death was remote.”

Judge Leos noted that Gonzales left Victoria alone with Kelley the day of the girl’s death, even though he was aware that Kelley was using methamphetamine and feeling increasingly paranoid.

During the October 27 sentencing hearing,  the Bernalillo County District Attorney  prosecutors asked Judge Leos to classify the child abuse charge as a serious violent offense saying without Fabian, Victoria would still be alive today. The designation would have ensured that Gonzales would serve at least 85% of that sentence instead of 50%. Judge Cindy Leos also felt the state failed to meet its  burden of proof that Gonzales acted violently, pointing to the fact that Gonzales was not in the apartment at the time of the murder as was evidence by Gonzales’ cell phone records.

TWO OTHERS CHARGED

In addition to Fabian Gonzales, two others were charge in the killing. Those two were Jessica Kelly, 37, and Victoria’s mother Michelle Martens.

Jessica Kelley, 37, pleaded no contest in 2019 to 6 felony charges, including reckless child abuse resulting in death and other charges in Victoria’s death. She was sentenced in April to 50  years in prison. As part of Kelley’s plea deal in the case, she agreed to testify against her cousin Fabian Gonzales.

https://www.koat.com/article/jessica-kelley-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/39851304

District Attorney Raul Torres negotiated a plea and disposition agreement with Michelle Martens, 41.  Michelle Martins plead guilty in 2018 to reckless child abuse resulting in death and she faces 12 to 15 years in prison. Her sentencing hearing is scheduled for November 10.

No one has actually been charged with the murder of 10 year old Victoria Martins.

GRUESOM DETAILS OF MURDER

During the trial of Fabian Gonzales, Jessica Kelley testified that on the day of Victoria Martin’s killing, she was left alone with the 10 year old child.  Kelley testified that she  was high on meth when a man she’s never met before walked in and killed the 10-year-old.

State prosecutors question Kelley about her actions on each day leading up to the day Victoria was murder. In the early morning hours of the day Victoria would later be killed, Kelley testified to being paranoid all day. On the day Victoria was killed, she claims Gonzales and Victoria’s mother, Michelle Martens, knew she was on meth when they left her alone with the 10-year-old.

Kelley testified for the first time of the unknown person who she claims killed Victoria. Kelley told state prosecutors that a man. well dressed,  she did not know walked uninvited into the apartment asking for “Favo” and then went into Victoria’s room, strangled the girl, and left.

Kelley testified

“[The man] said  ‘Fabian fucked up. He knows what he did, there’s a mess in there’ that me and Fabian have to clean up and if not, ‘it’s going to be our lives and my kid’s lives. ”

Kelley testified that after Victoria was killed, she walked into Victoria’s room and found the girl lying on her back, blue in the face and without a pulse. Kelley claims she waited for Gonzales to come home, then pulled her cousin aside to tell him what happened.

Kelley  told the jury:

“I don’t think he really believed me, because he was like, ‘For real cuz?! What the fuck!’ and I was like, ‘For real, what are we going to– we have to get rid of her body, like’ … and he said, ‘alright, we’ll take turns.”

At that point, Kelley claims Gonzales helped distract Michelle Martens from learning that Victoria was dead. She added that Michelle Martens never checked on her daughter before going to bed.

Kelley says that’s when Gonzales went into Victoria’s room and started dismembering the girl’s body.  She testified:

“He was cutting her in the middle of her chest. He was like, ‘we’ve gotta make it look like it’s not us!’ I was, ‘like what the?! Just get the fuck out of here, I’ll finish it.”

Kelley also admitted that after attempting to dispose of Victoria’s body, she planned on killing Gonzales and Martens with an iron because she was scared of going back to prison.

Gonzales for his part testified at his trial and he kept to his original story that Jessica Kelley acted alone. He testified  Kelley is the one who killed Victoria and tried to dispose of her body.

Court documents filed in the case  also revealed how Kelley told investigators she was high on meth, babysitting Victoria Martens when a man she didn’t know came into the apartment and killed the little girl. Kelley said she told her cousin, Fabian Gonzales, that Victoria was dead. Kelley told investigators she and Gonzales dismembered Victoria, then the pair put the little girl into a bathtub, set the child’s body on fire and tried to clean up the crime scene.

Court pleadings also show that the night of the killing, Kelley grabbed an iron and hit Victoria’s mother Michelle Martens in the forehead. Afterwards, Michelle Martens and Gonzales left the apartment, and  Kelley set Victoria on fire and then tried to run from police.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The postscript to this blog article contains a time line of events in the case.

DA RAUL TORREZ SPREADS BLAME TO APD IN MARTENS CASE

It was on June 29, 2018 that Bernalillo County District Torrez announced that the most egregious charges against the defendant Michelle Martens, including murder and rape, were dismissed.  The plea agreement Torrez negotiated was to one count of child abuse, recklessly caused, resulting in the death of a child under 12.  The plea agreement guarantees a 12 to 15-year sentence.

Michelle Martins is to be sentence on November 10, 2022.   Because Martens  cooperated and turned state’s evidence and given her significantly reduced mental capacity, there is a real chance the court will sentence her to 12 years and not the full 15 years.

Raul Torrez and his prosecutors also agreed that Michelle Marten’s crime would  not be classified as a “serious violent offense”, meaning she could see her sentence cut in half for good behavior and serve as little as 6 years if she is sentenced to 12 years.  Martens  will also  get credit for the 2 years of time already served because she was  in jail pending trial, so it is possible that Martens could be out of prison in 4 years.

APD  BOTCHED INVESTIGATION

The initial APD police investigation and reports alleged that it was Jessica Kelley that stabbed 9-year-old Victoria Martens and that Fabian Gonzales strangled her while Michelle Martens watched the murder. Part of the pretrial publicity that inflamed matters was the accusations that Victoria Martens had been raped, sexually assaulted and that the child had a communicable disease, all accusations that were proven false by further forensic investigation, the DNA evidence and the autopsy of the child.

Mark Earnest, Jessica Kelley’s defense attorney, announced that experts determined that contrary to the findings in the initial autopsy report, there was no evidence that Victoria was raped the night she was killed.  Earnest said this:

“In totality … three experts [who have] … over 100 years [of experience] … determined that no sexual assault took place. Despite that, early on, the autopsy report in this case indicated that there was sexual assault.”

According to reports, the unidentified person’s partial DNA sample was left on the little girl’s body and the person  has been indicted as a “John Doe” in order to toll the statute of limitations until the person is found and arrested for prosecution. District Attorney Raul Torrez said an unidentified man was retaliating against Fabian Gonzales when he went to Martens’ apartment and killed Victoria Martens.

District Attorney Raul Torrez took considerable heat and experienced tremendous public outcry regarding the plea agreement he  negotiated with the defendant Michelle Martens.  According to Torrez, the physical evidence and forensic evidence established the Defendant Martens and her boyfriend Fabian Gonzales, who was also charged with the murder, were not even present at the time of the child’s murder.

DA Torrez said APD officers did not have the psychological profile at the time of the initial investigation was completed and APD detectives thought they could “trust what Martens was telling them” when she admitted to the crime of killing her own child.

The state’s own forensic psychiatrist said Michelle Martins did not realize she was also incriminating herself when she talked to police.  The forensic psychiatrist Michael Welner, who worked with the District Attorney’s Office, said a combination of Martens’ passive and naive personality, the way officers presented themselves as on her side and the context of her daughter’s recent death, led Michelle Martins to admit to a crime she did not commit and admitting to having witnessed the crime she never saw.

Dr. Welner was quoted as saying:

“In the course of questioning her about specifics and going over details, the officers in the questioning revealed certain details within the case that Michelle later incorporated into her story. … Incorporating them into her story gave the impression of some legitimacy of what she was saying.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1191300/expert-martens-statements-to-police-were-contaminated.html

To complicate matters, Torrez announced in his June 29,  2018 press conference that a fourth yet unidentified defendant had been indicted as a “John Doe” for the child’s murder.

STUNNING ADMISSION

DA Raul Torres is quoted as saying during his June 29, 2018 press conference:

“With each new round of testing and each new piece of information, more and more doubt was cast on Michelle Martens’ direct involvement in the murder of her daughter Victoria … And we were forced to consider the possibility that Michelle Martens had falsely incriminated herself and [her boyfriend] Fabian Gonzales in this heinous act.”

https://www.abqjournal.com/1191031/michelle-martens-pleads-guilty-to-child-abuse-faces-12-to-15-years.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/mother-of-victoria-martens-accepts-plea-deal-awaits-judge-s-approval/1274041779

Torrez announced that he removed the two original prosecutors from the case and assigned more experienced trial attorneys by saying:

“It was my sense that we needed to have a more experienced team involved and we need to have dedicated resources. … I’m not going to second guess at this point what information they had access to.”

With his words and actions, District Attorney Raul Torrez admitted he and his office at the very least made the classic mistake and engaged in a level of prosecutorial overzealousness by “over indicting” a case based on witness statements and confessions before all the physical and forensic evidence had been processed and reviewed by his office.

All to often, especially when DNA evidence is involved, witness’s statements are found to be false and contradicted by DNA evidence.

Many defendants have sat on death row based on false eyewitness testimony and even confessions only to be released years later because DNA proves they did not commit the crime. It was  on June, 2, 2016, the murder charges against Donovan Maez, 22 and Christopher Cruz were dismissed when eye witness testimony was proven to be false.

https://www.krqe.com/news/charges-dismissed-in-jaydon-chavez-silver-murder/1019769798

The decision to assign more experienced trial attorneys to the case and dedicate more resources was indeed very noble and absolutely necessary. The problem is that it took Torrez a full 18 months to come to that conclusion.  Torrez does not have to “second guess … what information they had access to” seeing as he admitted he knew within a few months after taking office there were real problems with the case, yet he publicly he acted like nothing was wrong until he had to come clean.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY RAUL TORREZ FOUND RECKLESS

District Attorney Raul Torrez in his various media interviews about the Victor Martens case  shared extensive details of the case and his office’s  prosecution strategy on the pending criminal prosecution against Fabian Gonzales and Jessica Kelley. During a January 4, 2019 pretrial motion hearing, District Judge Charles Brown determined District Attorney Raúl Torrez had been “reckless” in December 10, 2018 statements he made to the media about defendant Jessica Kelley’s absence of cooperation before her no contest plea.

Confidential sources  said at the time  that Raul Torrez resisted being called as a witness at the January 4, 2019 hearing before Judge Brown.  His public information officer testifying instead. Further, confidential sources are said the defense counsel for Fabian Gonzalez intend to call Raul Torrez to the stand to testify regarding his public statements.

On January 4, 2018, District Judge Brown said that Torrez should not have issued a December 10, 2018 statement at all. Judge Brown admonished Raul Torrez for the statement by stating from the bench in open court:

“I don’t know if it was [intentionally done] to deprive the defendant of a fair trial, or if the goal was to shift the light away from the District Attorney’s Office or to move light to the Albuquerque Police Department … I find it to be woefully inaccurate in its ambiguity. It could be interpreted in many ways – all of them positive to the District Attorney’s office, some to the detriment of others. The District Attorney also has an obligation to protect the due process right of the defendant. … [The District Attorney] … represents the state, which is everyone including the defendant and the defendant’s families … The District Attorney’s obligation is to the system.”

Torrez sharing details and prosecution strategy in the case that were later reported upon by the media may have resulted in a “clear and present danger of prejudicing the proceeding” which would be an ethical violation of the code of professional conduct for lawyers. The New Mexico Code of Professional Responsibility has a very specific rule that governs attorneys conduct and pretrial publicity, Rule 16-306 Trial Publicity.

The extended media interviews that Torrez did in the case no doubt ingratiated Torrez with the news media and gave him the publicity he coveted,  but Torrez did not help his cause in seeking justice for 10-year-old Victoria Martens.  Another problem posed is that Torrez discussed with the media in his many interview’s conclusions based on the evidence that should be decided by a jury, not the prosecutor in the case.

District Court Judge Charles Brown could just as easily refer Raul Torrez to the New Mexico Disciplinary Board for violations of the Code of Professional Conduct relating to pretrial publicity. Raul Torrez needs to take to heart the words of Judge Brown when he said:

“[DA Torrez] … represents the state, which is everyone including the defendant and the defendant’s families … The District Attorney’s obligation is to the system”.

Judge Brown essentially told District Attorney Raul Torrez his obligation is not just to inform the media that results in generating intense media coverage. Judge Brown made it clear to Torrez that his ethical obligation is to the entire criminal justice system and not just to the media and his own political image and future.

Another obligation of any prosecutor is to have faith in the jury system and do the best you can to prove your case with the evidence you have in a court of law and if there is not enough evidence then the investigating agency needs to be held accountable.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Given the initial botched investigation and prosecution of the Victoria Matins murder case, it was luck that anyone was in fact brought to justice. Justice has been served with the 50 year sentence of Jessica Kelley and the  37½ sentence of Fabian Gonzales.

Very little justice can be said to have been served with the plea agreement negotiated by DA Raul Torrez wherein Michelle Martens plead to 1 count of child abuse, recklessly caused, resulting in the death of a child under 12 with  the plea agreement guaranteeing her a 12 to 15-year sentence for her involvement in the death of her own child.

Then there is the matter of the “phantom” defendant killer that has yet to be identified and found by APD.  APD has yet to announce if any progress has been made in identifying the phantom killer. Justice will not be fully served for 10-year old Victoria Martens until  her killer is  actually identified and  brought to justice, but its far more likely than not the killer will never be found.

Links to quoted news sources are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2543843/fabian-gonzales-sentenced-to-37-5-years.html

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/jury-deliberates-in-fabian-gonzales-trial-over-victoria-martens-killing/

https://www.koat.com/article/jessica-kelley-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/39851304

https://www.koat.com/article/judge-accepts-plea-deal-in-jessica-kelley-case/25779971

https://www.koat.com/article/fabian-gonzales-sentenced-victoria-martens-death/41790774

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/fabian-gonzales-to-be-sentenced-for-role-in-death-of-victoria-martens/

https://www.krqe.com/news/crime/jessica-kelley-to-take-stand-on-day-two-of-trial-on-victoria-martens-killing/

POSTSCRIPT

TIME LINE OF BOTCHED INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION

It was on August 24, 2016 that APD found the dismembered body of young Victoria wrapped in a blanket in a bathtub inside an apartment on Albuquerque’s west side.  The child’s mother Michelle Martin’s and  her then-boyfriend, Fabian Gonzales and his cousin, Jessica Kelley, were  all charged with  the child’s death. Much of what investigators believed happened the  night of the killing was based on what Michelle Martens told police in the days after her daughter was found dead.  Martens’ story changed several times, but the main the main thrust of her story remained the same and all three took part in drugging, raping, mutilating and ultimately killing Victoria.  It later was determined that  a combination of Martens’ passive and naive personality, the way APD officers presented themselves as being on her side and the context of her daughter’s recent death, all  led Michelle Martins to admit to a crime she did not commit and admitting to having witnessed the crime she never saw.

In September 2016, Michelle Martens, Jessica Kelly and Fabian Gonzales were indicted by then Bernalillo County District Attorny Kari Brandenburg on the charges of intentional abuse of a child resulting in death, aggravated criminal sexual penetration, murder and tampering with evidence.

In November 2016, Victoria Martens’ autopsy was released. The autopsy by the Office of the Medical Investigator found  that Victoria had a sexually transmitted disease.  The autopsy revealed that there are no drugs in Victoria’s system. Martens had told investigators that Victoria had been given meth the night she died.

On January 1,  2017 Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez was sworn into office for his first term and he took personal responsibility to review the case. Torrez expressed concerns over aspects of how the APD investigation and follow-up procedures were handled and consequently Torrez  formed a new team of investigators and prosecutors to take over the case.

In March,  2017  a  new  investigation began in the case and during the following months, investigators conduct hundreds of interviews. In May 2017, prosecutors also contacted a forensic psychiatrist to analyze statements Martens gave to police.

In June, 2017 forensic DNA testing revealed that a partial DNA sample found on Victoria’s back did not come from Fabian Gonzales. It was believed the sample was most likely from saliva, sweat or skin cells from another.

On June 29, 2018,  District Attorney Raul Torrez announced a plea agreement where Michelle Martens, Victoria’s mother, plead guilty to a lesser charge of reckless child abuse resulting in the death of a child under 12. Torrez also announced several charges against Fabian Gonzales were dismissed. Cellphone data provided proof that neither was home at the time of Victoria’s death. Torrez also revealed that the the DNA of another was  found on Victoria’s body and  investigators were now searching for a “mystery” fourth suspect. With the plea deal, Michelle Martens faces a possible sentence of 12-15 years, and with good time she could be out of jail within 6 to 7 years. She is scheduled to be sentenced November 10, 2022.

In September 2018, over the course of two weeks, twice District Court Judge Charlie Brown denied the state’s attempt to make a plea deal with Jessica Kelley on the grounds that there was insufficient evidence to support the plea.

January  4, 2019, District Attorney Raul Torrez  announced that the rape charge against Jessica Kelley were  dropped because expert forensic witnesses weren’t going to be able to support the idea that Victoria Martens was raped by Kelley.

On January 7, 2019, Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez reached a plea deal with Jessica Kelley just before her trial was set to begin wherein Kelley plead “no contest” to charges related to Victoria Marten’s death. As part of the plea deal, Kelley agreed to  testify in the case against Fabian Gonzales and in the case of State vs. John Doe, which is the case brought against the unidentified defendant by use of DNA.

On April 29, 2022, Judge Cindy Leos sentenced Kelley to 50 years in prison with 6 years suspended. Once Kelley is released from prison, she will be on probation for 5 years.

On August 1,  2022, after a 13 day trial  and testimony from 35 witnesses, a jury  found Fabian Gonzales  guilty of 1 count of child abuse resulting in death, 7  counts of tampering with evidence and 1 count of conspiracy.

On October 27, 2022, Fabian Gonzales was sentenced to 37½ years in prison for his involvement with the killing of 10 year old Victoria Martens.

On October 25, KRQE News 13 reported a  Larry Barker follow-up investigation on the reinstatement of  APD Lieutenant Jim Edison. The story is as hard hitting as it gets and raises more than a few disturbing questions. Below is the full transcript of the news story followed by the link to review the new account:

“ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – It is a well-documented case of high-level wrongdoing at the Albuquerque Police Department. While assigned to the Chief’s office, Lieutenant Jim Edison pocketed tens of thousands of dollars in illicit overtime. Over a 12-month period, the lieutenant was paid $242,758. That’s more than the police chief and even the mayor.

It began in 2020 after Lt. Edison was tapped to lead APD’s COVID-19 response. His duties included coordinating testing, contact tracing, compiling stats, and responding to virus-related emails and phone calls. Even though his assignment was a day shift desk job, Lt. Edison padded his pay with thousands of hours in time and a half call-out overtime. Homicide Detectives receive call-out O/T when they respond after hours to a crime scene. Lieutenant Edison claimed call-out overtime for after-hours emails and phone calls. He told a supervisor he was allowed two hours of call-out overtime for any phone call he received outside regular working hours.

For example, Saturday, January 16, 2021. Edison hit up taxpayers 12 hours of overtime for making phone calls and sending emails on his day off.

January 22, 2021. The lieutenant documented seven minutes of off-duty work and claimed eight hours of overtime.

Sunday, January 31, 2021. Edison accounted for 22 minutes of work and claimed ten and a half hours of overtime.

Edison put in for overtime hours practically every day for a full year, even Christmas. On December 25, 2020, Edison claimed eight hours O/T. And there must have been some kind of email emergency on New Year’s day 2021 because, instead of celebrating, the lieutenant said he was doing police work and claimed 11 hours of overtime.

Last year, APD launched a series of Internal Affairs investigations aimed at the lieutenant’s timecard practices. In a memo from an Internal Affairs Investigator, Edison was informed, “It is alleged you have committed fraud by being paid over 40k for the first two months of 2021.”

Internal Affairs informed Chief Harold Medina, “…a reasonable likelihood of a criminal prosecution exists against Lt. Edison.” Following extensive investigations, IA Investigators concluded Lt. Jim Edison had violated numerous APD Codes of Conduct, Rules, and Regulations.

Earlier this year, then Interim Superintendent For Police Reform, Eric Garcia, told KRQE News 13 that Edison’s violations were “very serious.”

“Lt. Edison decided to claim overtime when it wasn’t appropriate. Lt. Edison wasn’t truthful with his supervisor. … He was abusing the system,” Chief Medina said in a February interview.

Edison was fired from APD last November. Because any police officer who violates New Mexico police standards can have their Law Enforcement Certification revoked, APD is required to report Edison’s misconduct to New Mexico’s Law Enforcement Academy for investigation. “The relationship that exists between the citizens of the state of New Mexico and the licensed professionals who are charged with delivering public safety to them is critical. Public trust in those licensed professionals is paramount,” said Benjamin Baker, the New Mexico Law Enforcement Academy Interim Director.

(New Mexico Law Enforcement Academy Letter to Chief Medina. Click the image to read full letter.)

APD’s leadership violated state law by failing to report Edison’s misconduct to the Law Enforcement Academy. “I’ve corresponded with the leadership at the City of Albuquerque Police Department, alerting them to this matter being brought to my attention … and the absence of a filed complaint from their office with the (Academy) Board,” said Benjamin Baker.

In late August, APD finally reported Jim Edison’s misconduct to the Law Enforcement Academy. His Police Officer Certification is under review by the Academy’s Board.

End of story? Not quite. You see, he’s back. In June, APD rehired Jim Edison. Today, he’s a police Lieutenant assigned to the Airport. And what about that documented timecard misconduct? The city wiped it clean like it never occurred.

Here’s what happened. Edison appealed his firing to the City Personnel Board. However, after he threatened to sue the city for civil rights violations, APD did an about-face and apparently decided Edison’s misconduct wasn’t so bad after all. City officials negotiated an out-of-court settlement behind closed doors. Jim Edison was reinstated retroactively to November with full back pay and benefits. And, just to make sure there are no hard feelings, the city handed Edison something extra, a bonus check for $20,000.

As part of the Settlement Agreement, Edison will be demoted and his misconduct discipline will be reduced from termination to a two-week suspension. Disciplinary actions arising from the timecard wrongdoing will be removed from his personnel record.

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” says former police officer Tom Grover. Grover is an attorney specializing in police misconduct cases. “It’s a public record. I don’t think you can just make it disappear. I’ve never seen a disciplinary record be removed. They did the investigation. There were findings. There was a final decision to discipline. It just goes away?” Grover said.

(Click the image to read the Full and Final Settlement and Release of Claims made and entered into by and between Jim Edison and the City of Albuquerque.)

Jim Edison’s firing last year was based on violations of APD’s internal Codes of Conduct. Because Edison’s timecard activity may violate state statutes, APD referred the matter to the Attorney General for a criminal investigation. So will Jim Edison be charged with a crime? We may never know. As part of the Settlement Agreement, APD pledged not to refer allegations of Edison’s misconduct to outside law enforcement agencies. And if a referral has already been made, APD must retract the referral.

“I thought, how strange is this? How can you withdraw a complaint of commission of a crime,” says retired state prosecutor Steve Suttle. Suttle says, in his 30-year career, he’s never seen a provision like that. “Facts are facts. And if there are facts here, after investigation, that reveal acts of crimes, the D.A. or the A.G. is perfectly within their power to pursue those with the bringing of charges or an indictment,” Suttle said.

https://www.krqe.com/news/larry-barker/apd-overtime-scandal-lt-accused-of-bilking-taxpayers-reinstated/

BACKGROUND OF THE INVESTIGATION

On July 1, it was reported that APD Lieutenant Jim Edison who was fired in November 2021 for overtime pay abuse had been reinstated by the city at the same rank pursuant to a settlement reach between Edison and the City. Edison had been with the department for 14 years. He was terminated after an Internal Affairs investigations found he had claimed more overtime hours than he had worked, that he lied to investigators and that he retaliated against the supervisor who initiated the investigation into his conduct. Edison appealed his termination by APD alleging he did nothing wrong and that he was entitled to the overtime claimed and paid.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2513251/apd-lieutenant-fired-in-scandal-reinstated-ex-accusations-of-overtim.html

Lieutenant Jim Edison’s alleged overtime pay abuse dates back to early 2020 during the first days of the pandemic. At the time, he was transferred to the Chief’s Office to head up APD’s COVID-19 response. Edison was responsible for coordinating testing, contact tracing, pandemic-related stats, emails and phone calls. Edison’s job in the Chief’s Office was primarily administrative desk work. When he was transferred to the Homeland Security Division, his new commander raised questions about the hours he was claiming.

PREVIOUS KRQE NEWS 13 INVESTIGATIVE REPORT

According to a March 14, 2021, KRQE 13 Investigative Report, over the course of one year, Lieutenant Jim Edison was paid $242,758 which consisted of a base pay and overtime pay. To put this staggering amount into perspective, hourly based pay for APD Lieutenants in 2020 and 2021 was $40 an hour or $83,200 a year. In other words, Edison was paid $159,558 in overtime in addition to his $83,200 base pay resulting in $242,758 paid in the one year reviewed. Edison was paid $186,944 in 2020 and $173,672 in 2021. In 2020, more than $95,000 was paid in overtime.

Edison was paid upwards of 3 times his base pay all because of overtime which is paid at the rate of time and a half. KRQE reported that in order for Lieutenant Jim Edison to be paid $242,758 yearly figure in 2021, Edison “cheated” on his overtime pay claims every day for a full year. Even though Edison’s overtime pay claims violated APD personnel rules and regulations, APD’s top command staff in the chief’s office failed to oversee it and approved it without any questions.

https://www.krqe.com/news/larry-barker/worst-ive-seen-apd-overtime-scandal-uncovered/?fbclid=IwAR2TIlXiLXq-846jXOXDUDGq5Yi59yUVGkaiGMJWrc4A0eRKVX6acvV__Qg

WHAT THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS INVESTIGATION FOUND

The Internal Affairs investigation found that Lieutenant Jim Edison was frequently claiming 2 hours or more of overtime for any task he did outside of work hours. An example given is that he would send a master spreadsheet of COVID-19 numbers to his supervisor every morning around 3 a.m. and claim two hours of overtime when the actual time worked was routinely under half an hour. The Internal Affairs investigator concluded that “overall, Lt. Edison could have combined work or completed [his work] during his shift to cut down on overtime.”

The Internal Affairs investigation found that:

“the department failed to adequately re-address and supervise Lt. Edison’s behavior in January 2021 and February 2021, which allowed Lt. Edison to continue to violate the same and additional policy violations.”

Internal Affairs also found that Deputy Chief Michael Smathers failed to ensure Edison was correctly coding his overtime hours and failed to identify that what he was claiming was not within department policy. Smathers received an 8-hour suspension and a letter of reprimand.

CITY SETTLEMENT TERMS WITH EDISON

Edison appealed his termination and reached a settlement agreement with the city in May. Edison’s private Attorney Tim White said Edison was reinstated and was assigned to the Aviation Department.

Edison threatened to file a lawsuit against the city for wrongful discharge and retaliation based on alleged violations of his civil rights and the New Mexico Whistleblower Protection Act.

The major terms of the settlement agreement negotiated between the city and APD Lieutenant Jim Edison include the following:

1.  The city agreed to withdraw its decision to terminate Edison and removed the discipline from his record.

2.  The city agreed not to refer allegations of criminal conduct to any outside law enforcement agency agree if a referral had already been made, APD must retract the referral.

3.  The city agreed to pay all of Edison’s his back pay since the date of his termination and agreed to pay Edison an additional $20,000. At the time of his termination Edison was paid $40 an hour or $83,200 a year. According to the city’s transparency portal, Edison is now making $43.20 per hour and has earned more than $50,000 so far this year which includes his back pay.

4.  Although Edison returned to the department as a lieutenant, he agreed to “self-demote” and undergo an audit of his previous pay records to determine whether he was overpaid. No later than November 18 Edison will “voluntarily and irrevocably demote to the rank of sergeant or to patrol officer” and he will not be eligible for any promotions.

5.  Instead of the 120-hour and 80-hour suspension he was initially handed, Edison agreed to serve a 96-hour suspension with 16 hours held in abeyance for six months as long as he isn’t subject to further discipline.

6.  It was agreed that the the city will conduct an independent audit of Edison’s pay records from February 2020 through May 21, 2021, and “determine whether his claims for overtime were consistent with the law.” If the audit determines Edison was overpaid “the city will first confer with employee for reimbursement and may thereafter pursue collection of overpaid amounts through appropriate judicial process.” If the audit finds that Edison was underpaid, he will be paid as required by the City and Police Union Collective Barging Agreement (CBA).

7.  The settlement perovides that Edison “retains all rights to deny audit findings and to oppose reimbursement for any reason.”

8.  Edison denies in the settlement he committed any misconduct, and the city denies all allegations he had raised against it.

At the time when the settlement was reported on, Chief Harold Medina said that Edison “wasn’t exactly breaking the law” when it came to his overtime claimed. Medina said Edison was taking advantage of the union collective bargaining contract which allows the management positions of Lieutenant to be part of the police union, which violates New Mexico statutory law that prohibits management to join unions.

The collective bargaining agreement between the city and the police union includes patrol officers, detectives, sergeants and lieutenants. The police union contract provides that when officers are called into work outside of regular hours, they are guaranteed to be paid a minimum of two hours at the rate of time and a half, no matter the actual time worked, which could be a matter of a few minutes.

The link to the quoted news source material is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2513251/apd-lieutenant-fired-in-scandal-reinstated-ex-accusations-of-overtim.html

TWO SEPRATE COMPLAINTS INVESTIGATED

An anonymous complaint to Albuquerque’s Civilian Police Oversight Agency (CPOA) launched an Internal Affairs investigation into Lieutenant Jim Edison’s overtime pay abuse. The CPOA investigator concluded Lieutenant Jim Edison violated rules, regulations and codes of conduct by cheating on his overtime. He was given a two-week suspension by APD Chief Harold Medina.

Despite APD’s investigation, Edison continued to misrepresent overtime on his timesheets which led to a second Internal Affairs investigation. Edison’s supervisor was Deputy Chief Mike Smathers. Even though Edison’s daily overtime clearly violated APD policy, Deputy Chief Smathers never questioned the overtime work claimed by Edison on his timesheet and routinely approved his time on the department’s payroll system.

The Internal Affairs Investigator concluded Deputy Chief Smathers violated multiple rules and regulations by failing to review Edison’s timesheets. Smathers received a one-day suspension for his conduct as a result of the civilian police oversight agency investigation.

In a second Internal Affairs probe, the Investigator concluded Smathers violated APD rules and policy a second time by failing to review Lt. Edison’s timesheets. According to internal affairs Detective Anastacio Zamora:

“There is no evidence Deputy Chief Smathers conducted any follow-up with anyone [except Lt. Edison] to ensure things were done correctly.”

Deputy Chief Smathers was given a written reprimand for his role in the Internal Affairs case. Albuquerque’s Superintendent for Police Reform, Sylvester Stanley, who retired after 8 months on the job, made the final decision to discipline Deputy Chief Smathers.

APD Police Chief Harold Medina bent over backwards to defend Deputy Chief Smathers saying the one-day suspension was appropriate. Medina had this to say:

“Up here on the fifth floor of the Police Department, the executive staff, we’re so busy that to go through the fine details of looking through somebody’s timesheets is not something that we’re going to be carving out time for. … Jim Edison deceived Deputy Chief Smathers and Deputy Chief Smathers took accountability for that and was disciplined.

The biggest thing that Deputy Chief Smathers did wrong is he had faith and belief in Jim Edison. Jim Edison betrayed that trust. And it’s very difficult for me to paint a negative brush on Deputy Chief Smathers for being a good leader, respecting his people, listening to his people and believing in his people.”

https://www.krqe.com/news/larry-barker/worst-ive-seen-apd-overtime-scandal-uncovered/?fbclid=IwAR2TIlXiLXq-846jXOXDUDGq5Yi59yUVGkaiGMJWrc4A0eRKVX6acvV__Qg

MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME

During the last 10 years, the Albuquerque Police Department has consistently gone over its overtime budget by millions. In fiscal year 2016, APD was funded for $9 million for over time but APD actually spent $13 million. A March 2017 city internal audit of APD’s overtime spending found police officers taking advantage of a system that allows them to accumulate excessive overtime at the expense of other city departments. A city internal audit report released in March 2017 revealed that the Albuquerque Police Department spent over $3.9 million over its $9 million “overtime” budget. For the last 3 years, APD has exceeded its overtime budget by as much as $4 million or more each year. In 2019, APD spent $11.5 million paying sworn police overtime when the budget was $9 million.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It is very difficult to accept that as part of the civil Settlement Agreement that the  Mayor Tim Keller Administration and APD would agree  not to refer allegations of criminal conduct to any outside law enforcement agency.  What is even more disgusting is that the Keller Administration and APD would agree if a referral has already been made, APD would retract the referral.  What also does not pass the smell test is that an additional $20,000 was added to the settlement, which was on top of payment of backpay.  The settlement ultimately stands for the proposition that APD sworn officers who engage in overtime pay fraud and who collect thousands in overtime pay are “above the law” and will not be prosecuted for their misconduct.

APD Police officers earning excessive overtime is nothing new. It has been going on for years and is very common knowledge. From a personnel management standpoint, when you have a select few that are taking home the lion’s share of overtime, it causes moral problems with the rest. Excessive overtime paid is a red flag for abuse of the system, mismanagement of police resources or the lack of personnel. The answer to end the historical APD overtime pay abuses once and for all has always been to initiate criminal prosecutions for fraud and  civil lawsuits for reimbursement of fraudulent overtime pay. That will never happen as long as Mayor Tim Keller and Chief Harold Medina have no problem with the conduct.

When Tim Keller was New Mexico State Auditor, he carefully crafted a public persona of a “white knight” government watch dog who combated what he called “waste, fraud and abuse”, so much so that he established a fraud division within the State Auditor’s Office.  After serving less than 2 years of a 4-year term as State Auditor, Keller announced for Mayor in 2017 and rode his public persona as a white knight to a landslide victory.  As State Auditor, Keller relished the publicity over his efforts to combat “waste fraud and abuse” in government and by government officials. As Mayor of Albuquerque, Tim Keller refuses to hold his own police department accountable for “waste, fraud and abuse” in police overtime.

The settlement has raised more than a few eyebrows within APD and city hall observers.  Rumors circulating at city hall are that APD Lieutenant Jim Edison has very damaging and very sensitive information on the conduct of APD Chief Harold Medina and Mayor Tim Keller that he has witnessed and has covered up.  The public will never know the truth of the rumors given the confidentiality provisions of the settlement.

Notwithstanding the settlement, the Bernalillo County District Attorney and the New Mexico Attorney General are not parties to the settlement. Neither the District Attorney nor the Attorney General are bound by the terms of the settlement and they are totally within their rights and authority to conduct a criminal investigation into the matter and even charge for overtime fraud if they wanted to.

A criminal investigation is not at all likely to happen anytime soon, if at all,  given the fact that Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez is now  running for Attorney General and Attorney General Hector Balderas is leaving office on January 1, 2023.  Besides, for the last 2 years during this whole sordid mess, both have chosen to ignore the APD overtime pay abuse scandals even after the City  and the New Mexico State Auditor has issued audits confirming what has happened and essentially delivering completed investigation to them both.

On October 25, news media outlets and social media and political bloggers made a big deal out of a poll on the race for the governor in New Mexico that gave Republican Mark Ronchetti a slight edge in the race. The poll was conducted by the Trafalgar group which is a political and corporate survey company. The poll was conducted October  17-19 with a margin of error of 2.9%.

Based on their survey, the poll gave Republican Mark  Ronchetti a 1%  lead in the race with 46.6%  of the vote compared to 45.5% for Governor  Michelle Lujan Grisham. The poll has a nearly 3% margin of error, effectively making the race too close to call. The poll is the first poll ever to show Ronchetti in the lead.

The poll reports 1,077 people who responded. Around 48% were Democrat, 36% were Republican, and 16% either had no affiliation or aligned with another party. What skews the poll is that 58% of people who responded to the poll were Anglo, and only 31% were Hispanic.

The link to the quoted news source is here:

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/new-poll-puts-ronchetti-ahead-of-lujan-grisham-in-governors-race/

https://www.koat.com/article/poll-reports-ronchetti-ahead-of-lujan-grisham/41770836

PREVIOUS POLLS

As of October 11, there had been a total of 5 polls conducted by the news media in the 2022 race for New Mexico Governor. All 5 polls have Democrat Governor Lujan Grisham leading Republican Mark Ronchetti by as low of only 3% and as high as 16%. Averaging out all 5 of the previous polls reflected that Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham polling average is 48.8% compared to Ronchetti’s 39.2%. Ronchetti never once surpass 40% to 43% in any of the polling which is essentially the Republican base in New Mexico. Lujan Grisham  busted the magic 50% plus one in only 1 polls.

RONCHETTI  FALSE  AD  ATTACKS  JAY MCCLESKEY SPECIALTY

Mark Ronchetti can only be considered a very flawed candidate very much like Donald Trump  given the fact that he is an ultra  right wing TV personality with no government and management experience and given who is running his campaign.

If Republican Mark Ronchetti has in fact closed the gab in the polling, and is now leading, the likely reason is his never ending negative campaign ads often seen run 3 times consecutively on TV stations. One ad accuses the Governor of releasing a prisoner from prison early and then committing murder  and another featuring the grandparents of his murder victim urging her defeat. Ronchetti  ads have been  found to be misleading or false by at least 2 local  news outlets. Instead of aggressively refuting the ads at first with her own campaign ads, an unsuccessful attempt was made to have the ads removed.  The Lujan Grisham campaign is now running ads pointing out the falsehoods in the Ronchetti ads.

The Ronchetti vicious attack ads should not come as any surprise and were expected. Least anyone forgets, Jay McCleskey is Republican Mark Ronchetti’s campaign manager and political consultant. Simply put, Jay McCleskey is the go-to guy for anyone who is Republican running for office willing to spend and do whatever it takes to win an election at any and all costs.

A “political hit piece” is the lowest form of negative campaigning used by all successful bottom feeder political consultants to smear the reputation of an opponent. It’s difficult to respond to a political hit piece, especially at the end of a contentious campaign such as the current Governor’s race  or if an opponent does not have the financial resources to respond to the lies and the liars who tell them.

In New Mexico, McCleskey has elevated the “political hit piece” to an art form. His tactics are often condemned by the public and those who are the target. The problem is that negative campaigning and smear tactics work and has worked for Jay McClesky over too many years and too many campaigns.

Jay McCleskey is New Mexico’s version of Lee Atwater or Karl Rove, two of the most despicable right wing Republican bottom feeders and political consultants and strategists for the Republican Party.  McClesky has even received praises for his work from Karl Rove.  McClesky is known for his negative slash-and-burn tactics to disparage and viciously malign Democrats at all levels and he has been very successful at it in New Mexico for the last 20 years making a very lucrative living.

McClesky managed the successful campaigns of Mayor Richard Berry and Governor Suzanna Martinez as well as numerous campaigns for local and state offices. McClesky is currently managing the campaign of Republican Paul Pacheco for Bernalillo County Sherriff.  Former Republican Governor Susana Martinez was vicious in going after members of her own party who disagreed with her and she did that with Jay Mc Clesky carrying out her orders.

It was reported that Southern New Mexico rancher Scott Chandler, a Republican, settled a defamation lawsuit he filed claiming political consultant Jay McCleskey and the former Republican Governor’s political action committee circulated untruthful mailers about him during the 2016 campaign. On December 15, 2021, the case was settled with McClesky’s insurance company agreeing to pay $375,000 to settle the defamation claims against McClesky.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Simply put, the Trafalgar poll accuracy is in serious doubt  because of those who were polled.  The poll was a straight horse race poll and did not go into great detail on the issues that are motivating voters. The poll was weighted with 57% of those polled as being Anglo, which is Ronchetti’s core supporters,  which is 10 points too high. The poll has Hispanic voters at 31% of the projected electorate which is way too low.  Hispanics along with woman voters are the core supporters of Governor Lujan Grisham.  Trafalgar is also Republican funded polling operation.

The only real takeaway from the Trafalgar poll is the race is tightening as Election Day gets closer, but this is expected and normal for New Mexico politics. Political news website Real Clear Politics averaged all the current polling data together. With the inclusion of the Trafalgar survey, the Real Clear Politics average of all the latest polls has Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Ronchetti by 3.7%.  However, it also ranked the race as a toss-up which only confirms that the race  is not over yet.

Early voting has already begun and voter turn out is already high, which likely favors Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. Reports are that as much of 12% of the projected vote has been cast.

The second and final poll for the Albuquerque Journal on the Governor’s  race will be published this Sunday. It is  the one singular poll that has the potential of ending the race all because of its decades old accuracy.