On August 8 the Department of Justice executed a Search Warrant and a Return of Service and Inventory at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. A link to review the search warrant is here:

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r4ifDtO2XZZ8/v

The judge authorized federal agents to gather any documents with classification markings as well as information about how “national defense information or classified material” had been stored and handled. The judge also gave agents leeway to collect any other government records created between the day Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017 and when he left four years later that might be evidence of violations of the Espionage Act or other document-related crimes under investigation.

Attachment B of the search warrant shows what was to be seized and says federal agents were to gather evidence that include physical documents with classification markings, and the containers or boxes those documents were located in, as well as other containers that were stored or found together with those documents. They also were to seize “information, including communications in any form, regarding the retrieval, storage, or transmission of national defense information or classified material.” The document also called for seizure of any presidential or government records and any evidence of alteration or destruction of those records or other classified documents.

The warrant allows for the seizure of “all physical documents and records constituting evidence, contraband, fruits of crime, or other items illegally possessed in violation of” various aspects of the Espionage Act.

The search warrant says federal agents are investigating potential violations of three different federal laws. The three specific federal criminal laws are:

18 USC 793, which is part of the Espionage Act and makes it a crime to remove or misuse information related to national defense;

18 USC 2071, which makes it a crime to hide, damage, or destroy government records; and

18 USC 1519, which makes it a crime to falsify, destroy, or cover up records to obstruct or interfere with a federal investigation or “proper administration of any matter” under the jurisdiction of an agency.

All 3 potential offenses cited in the warrant are felony crimes. The obstruction charge carries a maximum sentence of up to 20 years in prison. The Espionage Act crime has a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, and the catch-all offense for destroying government records carries up to three years behind bars.

“The records destruction statute also states that a person found guilty “shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States,” but legal scholars have largely agreed that it’s unlikely that punishment could apply to the presidency, since the Constitution directly spells out what qualifies, or disqualifies, a person for that office.”

A total of 27 boxes were seized. Included in the documents and items seized were 11 sets of documents labeled classified, confidential, secret and top secret. The list of boxes of information seized during the search includes documents that were the US government’s highest top-secret ratings.

“The FBI seized “TS/SCI documents,” which stands for top-secret and sensitive compartmented information, a government label for material gathered through sensitive intelligence sources or methods. The seized records marked “sensitive compartmented information” is a special category meant to protect the nation’s most important secrets that if revealed publicly could cause “exceptionally grave” damage to U.S. interests. In other words, documents were seized that potentially compromise the country’s national security. Federal prosecutors are indicating that they are exploring possible violations of the federal Espionage Act.”

The property receipt also shows the FBI collected other potential presidential records, including the order pardoning Trump ally Roger Stone, a“leatherbound box of documents,” and information about the “President of France.” A binder of photos, a handwritten note, “miscellaneous secret documents” and “miscellaneous confidential documents” were also seized in the search.

Trump’s attorney, Christina Bobb, who was present at Mar-a-Lago when the agents conducted the search, signed two property receipts. One receipt was two pages long and another that is a single page.

The links to quoted news source material are here:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/12/1117151056/fbi-collected-multiple-sets-of-classified-documents-from-trumps-mar-a-lago-home

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-12/fbi-seized-top-secret-documents-from-trump-s-home-reports-say

https://www.wbrz.com/news/fbi-seized-top-secret-documents-in-trump-estate-search/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/trump-denies-report-fbi-sought-nuclear-documents-mar-lago-search-rcna42766

https://nypost.com/2022/08/12/fbi-seized-11-sets-of-classified-documents-in-trump-mar-a-lago-raid/

ANALYSIS OF AFFIDAVIT FOR SEARCH WARRANT

The execution of the search warrant was immediately attacked by Trump and his Republican allies as a political move by President Joe Biden. Trump himself suggested the search warrant was politically motivated and went so far to advance the baseless conspiracy theory that the FBI agents might have planted evidence. The White House has said that Biden was not even told in advance about the search.

Multiple national news outlets as well as Trump and his Republican allies demanded that the Affidavit for Search Warrant be released in full with the Department of Justice opposing such release claiming release would jeopardize an ongoing investigation and compromise and endanger witnesses

On Friday, August 26, a  redacted version of the affidavit that the Justice Department used to obtain a search warrant of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago  was released.  The affidavit was revealing and shed new light on the federal investigation into the handling of documents from his White House. The release of the redacted affidavit provides a timeline about how the investigation unfolded.

AFFIDAVIT CONTENTS

Given the controversy surrounding the search of a former Presidents home, an review  of the affidavit language is in order. The Affidavit for Search Warrant is 38 pages long and is sworn to under oath by a sworn FBI agent.  The first 6 introductory paragraphs provide a succinct rational for the warrant alleged by the FBI agent.  Following are edited first paragraphs of the Affidavit:

“1. The government is conducting a criminal investigation concerning the improper removal and storage of classified information in unauthorized spaces, as well as the unlawful concealment or removal of government records. The investigation began as a result of a referral the United States National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) sent to the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) on February 9, 2022, … .

The NARA Referral stated that on January 18, 2022, in accordance with the Presidential Records Act (PRA), NARA received from the office of former President DONALD J. TRUMP, hereinafter “FPOTUS,” via representatives, fifteen (15) boxes of records, hereinafter, the “FIFTEEN BOXES.”

The FIFTEEN BOXES, which had been transported from the FPOTUS property at 1100 S Ocean Blvd, Palm Beach, FL 33480, hereinafter, the “PREMISES,” a residence and club known as “Mar-a-Lago” … were reported by NARA to contain, among other things, highly classified documents intermingled with other records.

2.  After an initial review of the NARA Referral, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) opened a criminal investigation to, among other things, determine how the documents with classification markings and records were removed from the White House … and came to be stored at the PREMISES [and to]

 [A.] determine whether the storage location(s) at the PREMISES were authorized locations for the storage of classified information;

[B.] determine whether any additional classified documents or records may have been stored in an unauthorized location at the PREMISES or another unknown location,  and whether they remain at any such location;

[C.]  identify any person(s) who may have removed or retained classified information without authorization and/or in an unauthorized space.

 3.  The FBI’s investigation has established that documents bearing classification markings, which appear to contain National Defense Information (NDI), were among the materials contained in the FIFTEEN BOXES and were stored at the PREMISES in an unauthorized location.

Further, there is probable cause to believe that additional documents that contain classified NDI or that are Presidential records subject to record retention requirements currently remain at the PREMISES.

There is also probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction will be found at the PREMISES.

4. …
5. …
6. Based upon the … facts [enumerated herein]  there is probable cause to believe that the locations to be searched at the PREMISES contain evidence, contraband, fruits of crime, or other items illegally possessed in violation 18 U.S.C. §§ 793(e), 1519, or 2071.”

STATUTORY AUTHORITY

Paragraphs 8 through 27 of the affidavit outlines specific statutory authority and the specific federal criminal laws and penalties dealing with the possession and handling of classified documents and presidential documents and penalties. The 4 federal laws  cited with particularity are 18 U.S.C. § 1519,  18 U.S.C. § 2071, PRA, 44 U.S.C. § 2201 and 44 U.S.C. § 3301(a).

Under 18 U.S.C. § 1519: Whoever knowingly alters, destroys, mutilates, conceals, covers up, falsifies, or makes a false entry in any record, document, or tangible object with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States or any case filed under title 11, or in relation to or contemplation of any such matter or case, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.

Under 18 U.S.C. § 2071: (a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

(b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.

Under the PRA, 44 U.S.C. § 2201: (2) The term “Presidential records” means documentary materials, or any reasonably segregable portion thereof, created or received by the President, the President’s immediate staff, or a unit or individual of the Executive Office of the President whose function is to advise or assist the President, in the course of conducting activities which relate to or have an effect upon the carrying out of the constitutional, statutory, or other official or ceremonial duties of the President. Such term

(A) includes any documentary materials relating to the political activities of the President or members of the President’s staff, but only if such activities relate to or have a direct effect upon the carrying out of constitutional, statutory, or other official or ceremonial duties of the President; but

(B) does not include any documentary materials that are (i) official records ofan agency (as defined in section 552(e) of title 5, United States Code; (ii) personal records; (iii) stocks of publications and stationery; or (iv) extra copies of documents produced only for convenience of reference, when such copies are clearly so identified.

Under 44 U.S.C. § 3301(a), government “records” are defined as: all recorded information, regardless of form or characteristics, made or received by a Federal agency under Federal law or in connection with the transaction of public business and preserved or appropriate for preservation by that agency or its legitimate successor as evidence of the organization, functions, policies, decisions, procedures, operations, or other activities of the United States Government or because of the informational value of data in them.

… .

32 C.F .R. Parts 2001 and 2003 regulate the handling of classified information. Specifically, 32 C.F.R. § 2001.43, titled “Storage,” regulates the physical protection of classified information. This section prescribes that Secret and Top-Secret information “shall be stored in a [General Services Administration]-approved security container, a vault built to Federal Standard (FHD STD) 832, or an open storage area constructed in accordance with§ 2001.53.”

DEFINITIONS OF DOCUMENT CLASSIFICATIONS

The Affidavit for Search Warrant goes to great lengths to define the various levels of classified documents that are the subject of the search warrant. The definitions of classified documents enumerated in the affidavit includes the following:

“Confidential” [is where]  unauthorized disclosure could reasonably result in damage to the national security, the information may be classified as and must be properly safeguarded.

“Secret” [ is where] …  such unauthorized disclosure could reasonably result in serious damage to the national security, the information may be classified as and must be properly safeguarded.

“Top Secret”  [is where] Where such unauthorized disclosure could reasonably result in exceptionally grave damage to the national security, the information may be classified as “Top Secret” and must be properly safeguarded.

“Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI)” means classified information concerning or derived from intelligence sources, methods, or analytical processes, which is required to be handled within formal access control systems.

Special Intelligence, or “SI,” is an SCI control system designed to protect technical and intelligence information derived from the monitoring of foreign communications signals by other than the intended recipients. The SI control system protects SI-derived information and information relating to SI activities, capabilities, techniques, processes, and procedures

HUMINT Control System, or “HCS,” is an SCI control system designed to protect intelligence information derived from clandestine human sources, commonly referred to as “Human intelligence.” The HCS control system protects human intelligence-derived information and information relating to human intelligence activities, capabilities, techniques, processes, and procedures.

The Affidavit states:

“Classified information of any designation may be shared only with persons determined by an appropriate United States Government official to be eligible for access, and who possess a “need to know.” Among other requirements, in order for a person to obtain a security clearance allowing that person access to classified United States Government information, that person is required to and must agree to properly protect classified information by not disclosing such information to persons not entitled to receive it, by not unlawfully removing classified information from authorized storage facilities, and by not storing classified information in unauthorized locations. If a person is not eligible to receive classified information, classified information may not be disclosed to that person. In order for a foreign government to receive access to classified information, the originating United States agency must determine that such release is appropriate.”

 DOCUMENTS TURNED OVER IN MAY

It is paragraph 47 that the FBI agent outlines the classified documents that were contained in the 15 boxes turned over in May:“From May 16-18, 2022, FBI agents conducted a preliminary review of the FIFTEEN BOXES provided to NARA and identified documents with classification markings in fourteen of the FIFTEEN BOXES. A preliminary triage of the documents with classification markings revealed the following approximate numbers: 184 unique documents bearing classification markings, including:

67 documents marked as CONFIDENTIAL

92 documents marked as SECRET, and

25 documents marked as TOP SECRET.”

The FBI agents observed markings reflecting the following compartments/dissemination controls: HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN, and SI.

HEAVILY REDACTED AFFIDAVIT

Pages 9 to 29 of the 36-page affidavit are 100% redacted or are partially redacted. Ostensibly, these paragraphs contain the detailed allegations of fact to establish probable cause of a crime, identifies confidential witnesses and evidence sought that provides a “road map” of the investigation.

Links to review the unedited entire search warrant is here:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/judge-unseals-affidavit-trump-search-warrant/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/26/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-affidavit-memo/index.html

CNN REPORT

On August 26, the national news outlet CNN published a news account entitled “Takeaways from the Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit” written by staff reporters  Tierney Sneed and Marshall Cohen, with Jeremy Herb, Katelyn Polantz and Josh Campbell contributing to the report.  Following is the edited CNN report giving a summation of the major take aways gleaned from the affidavit:

FBI SAID THERE WAS LIKELY “EVIDENCE OF OBSTRUCTION” AND CLASSIFIED DEFENSE DOCUMENTS

 “The FBI told US Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart the search would likely find “evidence of obstruction” in addition to its explanation to the court that there was “probable cause to believe” that classified national security materials were improperly taken to “unauthorized” locations at Trump’s resort.  [The affidavit states]:

“There is probable cause to believe that additional documents that contain classified (National Defense Information) or that are Presidential records subject to record retention requirements currently remain at (Mar-a-Lago).  There is also probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction will be found at (Mar-a-Lago.)”

FBI FOUND 184 CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS FROM 15 BOXES EARLIER THIS YEAR

“When the FBI reviewed in May the 15 boxes the National Archives retrieved from the Florida resort in January, it found “184 unique documents bearing classification marking.” …  Among the materials were “67 documents marked as CONFIDENTIAL, 92 documents marked as SECRET, and 25 documents marked as TOP SECRET,” according to the filing.

 The agent who submitted the affidavit noted that there were markings on the documents with multiple classified compartmentalized controls, as he told the court that “[b]ased on my training and experience, I know that documents classified at these levels typically contain” national defense information.

… .”

NEW DETAILS ABOUT HOW THE DOJ GOT INVOLVED

“The FBI affidavit reveals new insights into how the investigation began. It started after a criminal referral from the National Archives, which was sent to the Justice Department on February 9.

The Archives told the Justice Department that the boxes recovered in January contained “newspapers, magazines, printed news articles, photos, miscellaneous print-outs, notes, presidential correspondence, personal and post-presidential records, and a lot of classified records.”

 The Archives official said there was “significant concern” over the fact that “highly classified records were … intermixed with other records” and weren’t properly identified.

After receiving this information, the DOJ and FBI launched a criminal investigation into the matter, leading to the subpoena in June for classified material, and the search of Mar-a-Lago … .”

REDACTIONS KEEP OBSTRUCTION EVIDENCE SECRET

“One unredacted subhead in the affidavit cues up the probable cause the FBI had to believe that there were documents containing classified defense information and presidential records at Mar-a-Lago.

Most of the section …  is redacted, and the unredacted subhead aligns with two of the criminal statutes the affidavit cited at the beginning.

But the third potential crime — obstruction — that was cited by the warrant materials does not have a corresponding unredacted subhead in the affidavit. The FBI would have had to provide the court its explanation of why it believed that there was likely evidence of that crime at Mar-a-Lago, so the absence of any unredacted details about that evidence signals that that part of department is particularly sensitive about that aspect of its investigation being made public.”

NEWS UPDATE:   On September 1 a federal judge ordered the release of a detailed list of the property seized during the FBI’s search while reserving judgment on whether to appoint an outside party to review the documents.  Federal prosecutors initially submitted a property receipt to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida though it was filed under seal. The Justice Department told the court in a separate filing it was prepared to release the receipt to the public given the “extraordinary circumstances” of the case and provide it “immediately” to Trump.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-documents-search-special-master-hearing-federal-judge/

Justice Department records unsealed on Friday August 2, offered new details about the volume of documents former President Trump stored in his personal office at Mar-a-Lago, as well as other items seized during the search of his Florida home. The filing revealed  Trump was storing at his home more than 100 classified documents the Department of Justice (DOJ) says it recovered from Mar-a-Lago.

FBI agents found 43 empty folders with classified banners in Trump’s personal office as well as another 28 empty folders that were labeled “return to staff secretary/military aide,” according to the inventory.   The inventory details  others that were found within Trumps office:  3 documents marked confidential, 17 documents marked secret and 7 documents marked top-secret. Their location in Trump’s office could be significant to the Justice Department’s investigation, particularly after it alleged earlier this week that items were “likely concealed and removed.”

https://www.krqe.com/news/national/unsealed-mar-a-lago-inventory-details-items-recovered-from-trumps-office/

SENSITIVITY OF DOCS TRUMP TOOK FROM WHITE HOUSE REVEALED

“The affidavit used a handful of acronyms when describing the sensitivity of the documents that were recovered from Mar-a-Lago earlier in the year. This “alphabet soup” is probably confusing to most Americans, but national security experts have said it reveals the horrifying scope of this security breach.

 Some of the classified documents that Trump brought with him from the White House to Mar-a-Lago contained markings for “HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN, and SI,” … .

“HCS” indicates that the material is about human sources, or spies, that often work with the CIA. “FISA” relates to court-ordered surveillance collecting foreign intelligence, including wiretaps. “ORCON” means the document is so sensitive that its originator must approve any request to share it. “NOFORN” means the material can’t be shared with any foreign entities, even allies, without permission. “SI,” short for Special Intelligence, relates to signals intercepts, which are typically handled by the National Security Agency.

These phrases confirm what many feared — that the documents that may have been illegally mishandled at Mar-a-Lago contained some of America’s most sensitive secrets.”

DOJ KEEPING DETAILS ABOUT PERSONNEL INVOLVED CLOSE TO THE CHEST

“The department said in its legal brief justifying the memos that that the FBI personnel who had already been identified as involved in the investigation had received “threats of violence from members of the public.”

 The FBI told the judge that “[m]inor but important” redactions in the affidavit were needed to “protect the safety of law enforcement personnel.”

 Even with the redactions, the affidavit revealed some information about the professional background of the FBI agent who submitted the affidavit. The affiant said that they were trained in “counterintelligence and espionage investigations” at the FBI Academy in Quantico, Virginia.

 In the court proceedings around whether the affidavit should be released, the Justice Department has kept limited the number of its officials known to be involved. The legal filings in that dispute bear the signatures of just two DOJ attorneys: Juan Antonio Gonzalez, the US Attorney for the Southern District of Florida, and Jay Bratt, the chief of the Counterintelligence for the DOJ’s National Security Division.

 Bratt argued for the DOJ at the court hearing last week on unsealing the document — a notable choice, given that there are numerous other lower-level DOJ attorneys who would have been equipped to argue the criminal procedure questions that were central to the dispute.”

TRUMP CLAIMS THAT HE COULD UNILATERALLY DECLASSIFY DOCUMENTS

“When seeking the warrant, the FBI made the judge aware that Trump’s team had claimed that Trump had “absolute authority to declassify documents.”

The affidavit cited, and included as an attachment, a letter Trump attorney Evan Corcoran sent the Justice Department in May — after the existence of the investigation surfaced publicly — asserting that Trump had such authority. As the affidavit noted, the letter instructed the DOJ to provide the letter to any court considering motions related to the investigation.

The affidavit also referenced a Breitbart article quoting Kash Patel, a former Trump national security aide who was named as one of Trump’s designees to handle issues with his presidential records in June, as stating that Trump had declassified the materials retrieved by the National Archives in January.

The rest of the section in the affidavit, however, is classified, so it’s not clear why federal investigators cited Patel’s comments.

Since the FBI’s search, Trump has pointed to a January 19, 2021, memo in which he declassified documents related to the FBI’s Russia investigation. There’s no evidence, however, that those materials were what the FBI was looking for when it searched Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.”

DOJ HOPED TO KEEP DOCUMENT SECRET

“It’s important to remember the process that led to … unsealing of the affidavit.

Shortly after the Mar-a-Lago search, news outlets, including CNN, urged the judge to unseal the entire court record, to provide unprecedented transparency into an unprecedented investigation.

The Justice Department argued in court … against releasing the affidavit, but its lawyers were unable to convince the court that the entire affidavit should be kept under seal. Instead, the prosecutors were told to prepare a version for the public with limited redactions which contained a surprisingly robust amount of information.

 When DOJ was arguing that the entire affidavit should be kept under seal, the prosecutors claimed that once all the necessary redactions were made to the affidavit, it would be devoid of any meaning that would serve the public interest in transparency.

…  .”

The link to the unedited CNN report is here:

Takeaways from the Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit – CNNPolitics

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

It remains unclear whether the Justice Department will move forward with any indictment of Trump for espionage or if the warrant was simply a means to retrieve records Trump took from the White House that were confidential, secret or top-secret documents that were highly classified and without any authorization. It is clear that he and the Republican Party believe he is above the law.

What is also clear is that the revelations from the search and the classified materials seized have open a major frontal attack that will benefit Democrats and increase the Democrats chances of holding onto congress at a time Republicans want to make Joe Biden’s job performance, the economy and inflation the main issues in the mid-terms.

The search and the documents seized show how just dangerous it is if Trump returns to power. Republicans protect Trump no matter the cost, even when he places our national security at risk, or for that matter attempts to overthrow the results of an election, he lost by orchestrating the January 6 capital riot to stop the certification of the election.

Thus far absent from all reporting is any explanation or disclosures as to what former President Trump was doing with top secret classified documents in his home?  One news report revealed that some of the classified documents were found in Trump’s desk at Maro Largo leading to speculation that the documents were being used by him and not merely being stored at the residents.

It’s disgusting that the Republican party defends Trump at all cost. What’s very alarming are the threats on law enforcement that are occurring because of his encouragement.  No one really knows but Trump what he was doing with 20 boxes of classified documents, what he did with top secrets and classified documents and who did he share them with and for what purpose.

 

 

On Tuesday,  August 29, the Albuquerque Journal published the results of poll taken on the issue of abortion rights. The article had the above the fold headline “Voters divided on abortion” and the subhead line “Few support total ban, but opinions on limits diverge along party lines”. The article was written by long time  Journal Capitol Bureau Chief  Reporter Dan Boyd

The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for decades has done all political polling for the Journal and with polling firm considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.

“The Journal Poll was based on a scientific, statewide sample of 518 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Aug. 19 through Aug. 25. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.”

The link to read the full unedited Journal column is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2528326/nm-voters-divided-on-abortion-restrictions.html

RESULTS OF ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL POLL

The Journal poll is extremely revealing in that it breaks down the results not only as to party affiliation but also as to regions of the state.

 The poll asked the question “WHICH COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ON ABORTION” The results were as follows:

It should always be legal:  35%

It should be legal with some limitations: 22%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 25%

It should always be illegal: 12%

Don’t know: 2%

None of these/won’t say: 4%

POLITCAL PARTY BREAKDOWN

The poll results were broken down according to party affiliation. The responses to the poll question by party affiliation were as follows:

It should always be legal:

Democrats: 55%

Republicans: 8%

Other: 35%

It should be legal with some limitations:

Democrats: 24%

Republicans: 18%

Other: 26%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life:

Democrats: 11%

Republicans: 41%

Other: 28%

It should always be illegal:

Democrats: 5%

Republicans: 24%

Other: 8%

The poll results were broken down according to geographical regions. The responses to the poll questions were as follows:

ALBUQUERQUE METRO REGION

It should always be legal: 33%

It should be legal with some limitations: 23%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life:26%

It should always be illegal: 11%

NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL REGION

It should always be legal: 39%

It should be legal with some limitations: 22%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 18%

It should always be illegal: 14%

LAS CRUCES/SOUTHWEST REGION

It should always be legal: 44%

It should be legal with some limitations: 30%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 12%

It should always be illegal: 8%

EASTSIDE REGION

It should always be legal: 27%

It should be legal with some limitations: 15%

It should be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life: 42%

It should always be illegal: 15%

POLL ANALYSIS

New Mexico voters are 3 times more likely to say abortion should always be legal than they were to say it should always be illegal.  According to the poll, 35% of statewide voters surveyed said abortion should always be legal, 22% said the procedure should be legal, for a combined total of 57%.   The poll found that 25% felt there should be some limitations and said it should be illegal except in cases of rape, incest or when a mother’s life is in danger.  Just 12% of voters surveyed said abortion should always be illegal, while 4% would not say and 2% said they did not know.

According to the Journal poll results, Democrats are firmly behind a woman’s right to choose with 55% of Democrats saying abortion should always be legal and 24% of Democrats said it should be legal with some limitations for a whopping 79% combined percentage.

Republicans’ opinion are dramatically opposite with 8% saying abortion should always be legal, while 24% said it should be banned and 41% said it should be illegal with exceptions for cases of rape, incest and to save a mother’s life, with a 65% combined total to make it illegal or illegal with the exceptions of rape, incest or threat to the life of the woman.

The difference by party affiliation shrinks to a 6% difference when it comes to how voters they felt if abortions should be legal with some limitations.  Interestingly, more Democrats, 24%, felt that there should be some limitations while fewer Republicans, 18%, felt there should be some limitations.

The Journal Poll did not find a big difference in attitudes on abortion between New Mexico voters based on their gender, ethnicity and age.  There was little difference in voters’ views on abortion based on their education level with one exception, voters with graduate degrees were far more likely than other groups of voters to say abortion should always be legal.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

With respect to the regional poll analysis, it’s somewhat of a surprise to note that it is the Las Cruces/Southwest area that had the highest approval of any region in the state that supported abortion without limits with a full 44%, while the Albuquerque Metro Region supported abortion without limits at 33%.

The Southern area of the state is widely considered a conservative part of the state,  excluding the progressive Las Cruces, while the Albuquerque Metro area is considered more progressive.  One explanation for the 11% difference between the regions is that more conservative Valencia and Sandoval were included and skewed the results.

Not at all surprising is that the Progressive Northeast/North Central Region of the state had the highest percent of support saying abortion should always be legal with 39%.  Also not surprising is that in the very conservative Eastside region, 42% said that abortion should   be illegal except for rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life, and 15% said it should always be illegal.

GOVERNOR MLG SIGNS EXECTIVE ORDER FOR ABORTION CLINIC

On August 31, Governor Lujan Grisham signed  an executive order that pledges $10 million to build a state-funded clinic providing abortion and other services in Doña Ana County.  In her  Executive Order, Governor Lujan Grisham declared that “the right to reproductive health care services is essential to a woman’s autonomy, dignity, and equality in our society”.  She also declared that “New Mexicans deserve access to the respect, information, and resources they need to make their own personal healthcare decisions and decide what is best for themselves and their families”  and declared  “abortion is an essential part of reproductive heathcare and must remain legal, safe and accessible”.

The executive order states:

“The Department of Finance and Administration to designate $10 million of the Executives capitol allocation for the upcoming 2023 legislative session for the purpose of developing a new clinic that provides a full spectrum of patient-centered, community informed reproductive healthcare, including abortion in Dona Ana County.

The Department of Health shall … develop a detailed plan to leverage State resources to expand access to reproductive healthcare, including abortion, in the underserved areas of the state …  [and] assess the feasibility of the provision of medication abortion in public health clinics overseen by the Department.”

 The Executive order provides that the Human Services Department shall

“as soon as practical develop policies and take action to improve the efficiency and sustainability of access to reproductive health services.”

The link to the Executive order is here:

Click to access Executive-Order-2022-123.pdf

The new clinic is intended to provide reproductive health, including abortion, to New Mexico women and other women from outlying states, including Texas, who are now denied abortion as medical service.  The clinic will allow women to exercise their rights to all reproductive services including birth control, post-natal care, and “appropriate medical management of miscarriage and pregnancy loss”.

The Governor said in a statement:

“This is a state that will stand against any attempts to remove or eviscerate women’s constitutional rights.  … Abortion is an essential part of reproductive healthcare and must remain legal, safe, and accessible.  New Mexico has recently implemented additional measures to protect reproductive rights and access to reproductive health care services such as repealing an antiquated state statute criminalizing abortion. … [I have previously] issued and executive order to protect access to reproductive health care services in New Mexico.”

It was in June that Lujan Grisham issued a previous executive order aimed at shielding health care professionals targeted by lawsuits from losing their licenses or being disciplined for providing abortion services. The June order asserts the state will not comply with abortion-related arrest warrants or extradition requests from other states.

Republican Governor Mark Ronchetti was quick to react saying the governor’s executive order was extreme and out of step with New Mexicans’ values and he said in a statement:

“New Mexico was already the abortion capital of the United States, and now taxpayers are having to foot the bill for a clinic which will perform abortions up to the moment of birth for non-residents who come from other states around the country.”

Given the results of the Albuquerque Journal poll on abortion, it is Republican Mark Ronchetti who is the one that is totally out of step with New Mexico’s values, especially the value of respecting a woman’s right to choose and to decide what she can do with her own body and reproductive rights.

The links to quoted news source material are here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2528671/governor-issues-order-pledging-nm-resources-to-expand-abortion-access.html

https://www.kob.com/news/business-money/new-mexico-governor-pledges-10m-for-new-abortion-clinic/

 https://abq.news/2022/08/mlg-signs-executive-order-amplifying-abortion-access-in-new-mexico/?utm_medium=email

 EMERGENCE OF A DEFINING ISSUE

“On June 22, 2021the United States Supreme Court released its decision in the case of  Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization wherein the Supreme Court  overruled and reversed the cases of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey and ruled that a woman does   not have constructionally protected right to an abortion and ruled the authority to regulate abortion was  returned to the individual states and their elected representatives. It was a reversal of 50 years of constitutional law precedence. The reversal was a 6-3 opinion where 3 Republican Justices appointed by President Trump ensured the reversal. The public reaction was immediate and swift resulting in protests through out the country in all major cities.”

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization/

According to an August 26, 2022 New York Times article, an as a direct result of the US Supreme Court ruling, most abortions are now banned in at least 12 states as laws restricting the procedure take effect following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. An additional two states now ban abortion at about six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant.

In many states the fight over abortion access is still taking place in courtrooms, where advocates have sued to block enforcement of laws that restrict the procedure.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html

This year, a record number of abortion questions will be on state ballots. The decidedly Republican red state of Kansas was the first state to vote on abortion rights since the U.S. Supreme Court handed down its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson’s Women’s Health Organization. On August 3, Voters in Kansas rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment Tuesday that would have said there was no right to an abortion in the state.

In the lead-up to the Kansas vote, supporters of the amendment argued that it was necessary to correct what they say was the Kansas Supreme Court’s overreach in striking down some of the state’s previous abortion restrictions in 2019. Opponents argued that the amendment would set state lawmakers up to pursue a total abortion ban.

The vote was not even close. 59% voted NO on the amendment that would have repealed abortion rights and 41% voted YES.

https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/02/us/elections/results-kansas-abortion-amendment.html

NEW MEXICO IS NO EXCEPTION

In New Mexico, abortion has become the defining issue in the race for Governor that features incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and TV Weatherman Republican Mark Ronchetti.

On Friday, February 26, 2021, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill repealing the 1969 abortion ban. The 1969 law criminalized abortion to end a woman’s pregnancy except in certain circumstances, such as rape and incest. The 1969 state statute had not been enforced been in the state due to the United States Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v Wade in the 1970s, which legalized abortion nationwide.

The repeal of the 1969 law was necessitated by the fact the repeated attempts have been made over the years to have the United States Supreme Court reversed the decision of Roe v Wade. With the appointment of 3 very conservative supreme justices by President Trump the reversal of Roe v. Wade was inevitable.

In a statement in signing the repeal, Governor Lujan Grisham had this to say:

“A woman has the right to make decisions about her own body. Anyone who seeks to violate bodily integrity, or to criminalize womanhood, is in the business of dehumanization. New Mexico is not in that business – not anymore. Our state statutes now reflect this inviolable recognition of humanity and dignity. I am incredibly grateful to the tireless advocates and legislators who fought through relentless misinformation and fear-mongering to make this day a reality. Equality for all, equal justice and equal treatment – that’s the standard. And I’m proud to lead a state that today moved one step closer to that standard.”

https://www.koat.com/article/gov-lujan-grisham-signs-abortion-bill-repealing-decades-old-ban/35651457

After the Supreme Court released it decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Republican Governor candidate Mark Ronchetti praised the court’s decision. He then suggested a “reasonable policy” that proposed banning abortion after 15 weeks of gestation, with exceptions for rape, incest, and to preserve the life of the mother.  Ronchetti labeled Governor Lujan Grisham position on abortion as “extreme” since she opposes abortion restrictions.   The Governor countered by saying Ronchetti is actually the candidate with the extreme stance on the issue and claimed it is Ronchetti’s position on abortion that shifted after the primary election.

It turns out Ronchetti “reasonable policy” was nothing more than a lie to get elected Governor by toning down his true intent.  On Sunday, July 10, the very conservative Republican pastor Reverend Steven Smothermon of Legacy Church during his Sunday church service, exposed Republican Mark Ronchetti’s stance on abortion that would allow abortion for up to 15 weeks of pregnancy and in cases involving rape, incest and when a mother’s life is at risk as nothing more than a lie to get elected Governor.  What Smothermon preached and said from his pulpit was that Rochetti confessed to him in private that “he wants  to start with getting rid of partial birth abortion in the whole state  and said ‘but I can’t just go in and do it 100 percent because we won’t ever get elected.’ Smothern proclaimed Ronchetti wants to start with banning partial birth abortion but his goal is to end abortion entirely  in New Mexico.

While Texas and other neighboring states have enacted abortion bans, New Mexico allows abortion services without any restrictions since state lawmakers in 2021 passed the repeal of the 1969 criminal law banning abortions. The state has also seen an increase of out-of-state residents coming to the state to obtain abortion services.  In response to the increase in out of state residents seeking abortions, Governor Lujan Grisham issued an executive order in June that protects abortion patients and providers from lawsuits and arrest warrants issued in other states.

DEMOCRATS LEAD IN ALL IN STATWIDE RACES

On Sunday, August 28 and Monday August 29, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll in the statewide races for Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and Commissioner of Public Lands. According to the poll, the New Mexico Governor’s race is the closest of all the top statewide races with a single 7%-digit lead with Governor Lujan Grisham leading with 47% to Republican Mark Ronchetti at 40%.

The Democratic candidates for Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and Land Commissioner all lead their Republican opponents by 10% or more.  In the Secretary of State Race, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver lead with 45% to Republican Audrey Trujillo at 33%. In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Raul Torrez leads with  49% to Republican Jeremy Gay with 33%. In the State Treasuer race, Democrat Laura Montoya leads with 44% to Republican Harry Montoya at 33%. In the race for Land Commissioner, Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard leads with 46% to Republican Jefferson Byrd at 35%.

VOTER REGISTATION

Democrats have a decisive 13.8% advantage over Republicans in the state. As the saying goes, “Republicans win in New Mexico when Democrats stay home on election day.”

According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows:

Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,

Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %,

No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %

Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 %

Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

To the chagrin of Republicans and extremists like Mark Ronchetti, abortion and woman’s reproductive rights are the defining issue in the states and in the 2022 midterms for US Congress. Republicans had wanted to make President Joe Biden’s job performance with his underwater approval ratings, the economy and inflation as the top issues to retake both the United State Senate and Congress. All that began to change with the reversal of Roe v. Wade and more than a few states coming down hard on a woman’s right to choose.

Over the last 3 months, the national and state political winds have changed dramatically and so has the voter mood benefiting democrats and Governor Lujan Grisham.  During the last 3 months, the following has occurred:

1. The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark case of Roe v. Wade abolishing a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion and setting aside woman’s reproductive rights.
2. Democrats have secured major approval of legislation in congress including billions for infrastructure and approval of a federal climate change law with federal monies allocated to the State.
3. The Congressional Investigation of Donald Trump and his orchestrating the January 6 capitol riot to set aside the election has taken its toll as has the recent federal search warrant confirming he is being investigated for mishandling of highly classified documents that may have endangered or compromised the country’s national security or espionage.
4. New Mexico is experiencing historical windfalls in the billions of surplus revenue which is now being invested by the state with the Governor announcing almost daily new infrastructure projects and how the money is being spent.
5. There has been major decline in the state’s unemployment rate to 4.5% that the Governor can and is taking credit for.
6. The effects of the pandemic are finally receding with Governor Lujan Grisham being given high marks for her handling of not only the pandemic crisis but also the handling of natural disasters such as the fires and flooding.
7. Gas prices have gone down dramatically by as much as $1 per gallon.

Based upon the results of the Albuquerque Journal abortion poll, there is no doubt where New Mexico voters stand when it comes abortion and woman’s reproductive rights. There is also no doubt that abortion is the defining issue in the Governor’s race. A total of 59% of voters who said they planned to vote for Lujan Grisham said abortion should always be legal, while 47% of voters surveyed who intend to vote for Ronchetti said abortion should be illegal with some limited exceptions.

If the poll numbers hold true over the next two months as is expected, the 2022 elections for Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and Land Commissioner are likely over.  Voter turnout in those races will likely benefit Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s reelection prospects, of course only if Democrats get out to vote.

The forecast for Republican Mark Ronchetti and his fellow Republicans is “very cloudy” and there is a likelihood of a heavy monsoon will rain on their parade come November 8.

 

 

On Wednesday, August 18, Mayor Tim Keller held a press conference, along with city other city officials, in front of a vacant, clean up and fenced off Coronado Park and made the announcement that Coronado Park was officially closed to the public making good on a promise he made on June 27 to close the park by the end of August.

Mayor Keller said the closure of Coronado Park does not represent “any kind of a comprehensive strategy” to resolve homelessness crisis. Keller said this:

“The actions taken today by the City of Albuquerque are made necessary by the threats to public health, safety and the environment that this encampment has created. … Let no one think, however, that these actions represent a comprehensive strategy for resolving the problem of what we commonly call the homeless in Albuquerque or anywhere else in America.

I know that burden is on me as your mayor, I know that, but it’s also on everyone else in this community.  … That means the homeless themselves, that means every provider involved, that means everyone complaining about this on social media, we’ve all got a role to play. And it is not just to complain about the problem.  …

Mayor Keller added that the yearslong “status quo” and public safety risks at the park including drug and human trafficking to those who lived at the park and those who provided them services had become “no longer acceptable.”

Between 75 to 120 people would camp out nightly  at the park at Third Street and Interstate 40.  By Tuesday, August 17 when the park was officially closed and after weeks of what the city has called “intensive outreach” the number was down to 30 to 40 and 15 subsequently accepted transportation to a shelter.

It has now been reported that a very large percentage of the Coronado Park homeless suffer from mental illness and/ or drug addiction. Many homeless simply refuse “shelter housing” offered by the city, including the shelter housing in the west side 24-7 facility. Virtually none of the individuals who were displaced from Coronado Park will be placed at the Gibson Gateway Homeless Shelter in that it has yet to be made fully operational. Notwithstanding the Gateway Shelter use has been scaled down and will only house 50 woman who are victims of domestic violence.

CORONADO PARK HOMELESS OUTREACH SURVEY

On August 27, the Albuquerque Journal published on its front page, above the fold story with the headline “Most Coronado homeless remain on the streets” and the sub headline “Survey shows many have acute physical, mental disorders”. The link to read the full article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527772/most-coronado-homeless-remain-on-streets.html

The Journal reported that as the city began the month-long process to close and clean up Coronado Park, the Family and Community Services Department dispatch “outreach workers” to conduct a survey of all the homeless living in the park to identify their needs and concerns and make plans to assist and place them.  The city released the survey to the Albuquerque Journal after an Inspection of Public Records (IPRA) request was made for the survey.

SURVEY CONDUCTED BY ABQ STREET CONNECT

Quoting the Albuquerque Journal article:

“The survey was conducted on behalf of the city by ABQ Street Connect, a program within Heading Home that provides individualized, housing-focused services and case management to individuals who suffer from severe mental illnesses and who are experiencing chronic homelessness.

The city had earlier reported that 110 people at the park had been surveyed, but when the final analysis was completed, it discovered that some of the individuals had been surveyed more than once, creating duplicate responses, requiring that the final number be revised.

StreetConnect identified 28 individuals with acute needs due to physical, mental, intellectual or “brain-related issues”.  The most common disabilities reported included PTSD, depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder and orthopedic issues.

StreetConnect was able to get 27 of the park’s former residents started on the pathway for housing.”

The survey results as reported by the Journal are as follows:

More than 57% of the 94 homeless people who agreed to be surveyed said that upon Coronado’s closure, they would simply find another park or street location to sleep at night.

19% said they would go to another park.

38% said they would find someplace on the streets.

22%, or less than a quarter, said they would likely go to a sanctioned shelter.

65% of the homeless surveyed said they would be willing to stay at Coronado Park  even if rules and security measures were put in place.

More than 75% of the survey respondents identified housing as their No. 1 priority.  Mayor Keller said  when he announced the closure of the park, there were shelter beds, mostly at the city’s emergency shelter on the far West Side, available for park residents’ use.  Journal interviews with those staying at the park revealed little interest in going to a shelter.

Nearly 14% said they are getting benefits and having income was their top priority, particularly Supplemental Security Income or Social Security Disability Insurance.

18 of the survey respondents accepted vouchers that allow them to stay from days to weeks in motels that are working with StreetConnect.

At least one respondent wound up at Heading Home’s Albuquerque Opportunity Center, enrolled in a program that is intended to break the cycle of homelessness.

Another person was provided a one-way bus ticket to Las Vegas, Nevada, after case workers confirmed that the person had family there.

Some respondents identified more than one need.  In descending order of priority these included:

1. Housing
2. Health care
3. Food
4. Employment and
5. Transportation

MENTALLIY ILL AND DRUG ADDICTION

Jodie Jepson, the executive director of StreetConnect that did the survey, said the majority of the individuals who made Coronado Park home are individuals with severe mental illnesses and who are experiencing chronic homelessness.  Jepson also said a majority of the former Coronado Park residents also have alcohol or drug addictions, although that question was not part of the survey.

According to Jepson, the severe mental and physical issues among the chronically homeless “make them unable to enter the workforce.” Consequently, she said, getting them into permanent housing is the first step to dealing with their myriad problems. Jepson said this:

“They are not in housing right now, but we are currently working with them on triage and assessment [which is the first step toward securing housing]” .

Jodie Jepson did not take issue with Mayor Keller’s decision to close Coronado Park. She noted that it was the park had too many regular incidents of violence and abuse, particularly against women.  In addition, she said, the park had become a “biohazard safety concern” because of a large number of cases of shigella bacterial infection among the homeless residents there.

Shigella bacteria cause an infection called shigellosis. Most people with a shigella infection have diarrhea, sometimes bloody discharge, fever, and stomach cramps. People become infected with Shigella by eating food or drinking liquids contaminated by an infected person. Touching contaminated surfaces or objects and then touching their mouth or putting a contaminated object into their mouth.

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/shigellosis/shigella.html

ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH STUDY

Jodie Jepson’s disclosure that Coronado Park had become a biohazard safety concern because of a large number of cases of shigella bacterial infection among the homeless residents was the very first time anyone publicly disclosed to what extent the park had been contaminated.

Confidential sources within APD said two months ago that an environmental health study or ground testing was performed either by the APD crime lab or the city’s Environmental Health Department on the Coronado Park grounds. According to the APD source, the study revealed a highly toxic level of contaminates, including drugs, human waste and fluids and dangerous levels of molds to the extent that the park grounds were dangerous and where exposure can affect a person’s health.  According to the APD source, a final report was provided to the Mayor’s Office and APD Chief Harold Medina and once reviewed, orders were issued that the study was not to be released to the general public for fear that the City would have to permanently close the park.

The link to the full and unedited Albuquerque Journal article is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527772/most-coronado-homeless-remain-on-streets.html

THE CITY’S HOMELESS NUMBERS

The ABQ Street Connect survey results, although only involving 94 homeless, reflects a striking similarity with the statics revealed in the city’s 2021 Point In Time Survey of the homeless.

Each year the “Point in Time” (PIT) survey is conducted to determine how many people experience homelessness on a given night in Albuquerque, and to learn more about their specific needs. The PIT count is done in communities across the country. The PIT count is the official number of homeless reported by communities to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines sheltered homeless as “residing in an emergency shelter, motel paid through a provider or in a transitional housing program.” HUD defines “unsheltered homeless” as “those sleeping in places not meant for human habitation including streets, parks, alleys, underpasses, abandoned buildings, campgrounds and similar environments.”

According to the most current PIT annual report, there were 1,567 sheltered and unsheltered homeless people living in Albuquerque. The 2021 PIT count found that 73.6% of the homeless population were  staying in emergency shelters, transitional housing or using motel vouchers rather than sleeping in alleys, parks and other “unsheltered” locations.

Major highlights of the 2021 PIT report are as follows:

There were 1,567 sheltered and unsheltered homeless people living in Albuquerque, a slight increase over the 2019 count of 1,524 homeless. The 2020 homeless count is 2.8% higher than in 2019 and 18.9% more than in 2017, despite the pandemic limiting the 2021 counting efforts.

The 2021 PIT count found that 73.6% of the homeless population was staying in emergency shelters, transitional housing or using motel vouchers rather than sleeping in alleys, parks and other “unsheltered” locations. The 73.6% in the 2021 count is much a higher than the 2019 and 2017 PIT counts.

Albuquerque’s unsheltered homeless decreased from 567 people in 2019 to 413 in the 2021 count.

42% of Albuquerque’s unsheltered were defined as chronically homeless, meaning they had been continuously homeless for at least a year and had a disabling condition.

21% said they were homeless due to COVID.

37% were experiencing homelessness for the first time.

12% were homeless due to domestic violence.

30.19% of the homeless in Albuquerque self-reported as having a serious mental illness.

25.5% self-reported as substance abusers.

Note that a whopping 55.69% combined total of those surveyed self-reported as having a serious mental illness or were substance abusers.

Homeless providers consistently say the City has upwards of 5,000 homeless or near homeless. The city has upwards of 10 homeless service providers on contract and many of those 5,000 are already being provided with services. The real challenge is to convince that portion of the 5,000 who absolutely do not want any kind of services or help of any kind.

The link to quoted statistics is here:

https://www.abqjournal.com/2402560/homeless-numbers-see-little-change.html

CITY’S FINANACIAL COMMITMENT 

 The Keller Administration has adopted a housing first policy when it comes to dealing with the homeless crisis which also includes funding provided to at least 10 service providers .

This past fiscal year 2021 ending June 10, 2021, the Family and Community Services Department and the Keller Administration have spent upwards of $40 Million to benefit the homeless or near homeless. The 2021 adopted city budget for Family and Community Services Department provides for mental health contracts totaling $4,329,452, and substance abuse contracts for counseling contracts totaling $2,586,302 and emergency shelter contracts totaling $5,688,094, affordable housing and community contracts totaling $22,531,752, homeless support services contracts.

The link to the 2021-2022 city approved budget is here:

https://www.cabq.gov/dfa/documents/fy22-approved-budget-numbered-w-hyperlinks-final.pdf

Mayor Keller’s 2022-2023 approved budget significantly increases the Family and Community Services budget by $24,353,064 to assist the homeless or near homeless by going from $35,145,851 to $59,498,915. A breakdown of the amounts to help the homeless and those in need of housing assistance contained in the 2022-2023 budget is as follows:

$3,773,860 total for mental health contracts (Budget page105.)

$2,818,356 total substance abuse contracts for counseling (Budget page 106.), up by $288,680 from last year.

$42,598,361 total for affordable housing and community contracts with a major emphasis on permanent housing for chronically homeless.

$6,025,544 total for emergency shelter contracts (Budget page 102.).

$4,282,794 total homeless support services, up $658,581 from last year.

The link to the 2022-2023 budget it here:

https://www.cabq.gov/dfa/documents/fy23-proposed-final-web-version.pdf

The 2022-2023 adopted city contains $4 million in recurring funding and $2 million in one-time funding for supportive housing programs in the City’s Housing First model and $24 million in Emergency Rental Assistance from the federal government.

APD CRIMINAL LAW ENFORCMENT ACTIONS AGAINST HOMELESS

The City and the Albuquerque Police Department have adopted a “criminal citation” approach rather that and “arrest and confine” approach to deal with the homeless and the nonviolent felony crimes they commit. The main cause of this approach is the settlement of the federal case McClendon v. City of Albuquerque.

The McClendon case was a class-action lawsuit filed on January 10, 1995 in the United States Federal District Court by detainees at the Bernalillo County Detention Center (BCDC) in Albuquerque. The class-action lawsuit alleged that gross overcrowding and racial discrimination at the jail violated the constitutional rights of inmates.

In 2017 the city entered into a Stipulated Settlement Agreement in the McClendon federal case where the city agreed that people accused of nonviolent misdemeanors will not be arrested where there is no circumstances requiring an arrest. The primary reason for the settlement was to prevent jail overcrowding and it had absolutely nothing to do with or how the homeless are treated.

When it comes to “homeless crimes”, meaning illegal camping, criminal trespassing and loitering, those offenders are not to be arrested as the “primary intervention”. Under the settlement terms, police still have the option to issue citations and still have the discretionary authority to make felony and misdemeanor arrests as they deemed appropriate and where the circumstances warrant.

During the June 22, 2021 meeting of the Albuquerque City Council, a city attorney explained the federal pressures the city is operating under. The city attorney cited federal cases arguing that they place limitations on the city and he said this:

“[When it comes to] ‘quote, unquote’ homeless crimes, those offenders are not allowed to be arrested as a primary intervention”.

The APD adopted policy is Standard Operating Procedure 2-80-1 which states in part:

“Police Department policy is to arrest a felony violator of laws which its officers are empowered to enforce. Officers shall issue citations when appropriate in lieu of arrest on non-violent misdemeanor offenses (not to include DWIs) when there are no circumstances necessitating an arrest. In all cases, officers shall follow correct legal procedures required in arresting, booking, and filing charges against such violators.”

“HOMELESS” MISDEAMENOR CRIME CASES ARE OFFICER PROSECUTED CASES

The criminal misdemeanor citations issued by APD police can only be given when a police officer actually witnesses the offense. All such misdemeanor criminal citations are strictly officer prosecuted cases except DWI cases. What this means is that when it comes to the “homeless crimes” of illegal camping, criminal trespassing and loitering, those cases are prosecuted by police officers in Metro Court and do not involve prosecutors from the Bernalillo County District Attorney’s office nor the Albuquerque City Attorney’s office.

KOB 4 contacted APD and asked them to quantify how they are enforcing the law when it comes to the low-level, nonviolent offenses committed by the homeless. An APD spokesman told KOB that since the beginning of 2022 there have been issued 2,308 citations to the homeless and it has issued 614 trespassing notices with 3 trespassing stops revealing outstanding warrants.

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/unm-law-professor-weighs-in-on-mayors-claims-about-homelessness/

When the homeless fail to show up for arraignments on the citations, bench warrants are issued by the Metro Court or a very large number of criminal citations wind up being dismissed because APD officers does not show to prosecute the cases.

Since the beginning of 2022 there have been issued 2,308 citations to the homeless and it has issued 614 trespassing notices with 3 trespassing stops revealing outstanding warrants. APD and the Albuquerque Community Safety Division that relies on social workers with outreach to the homeless can assume the responsibility to identify those homeless and drug addicted who are criminal offense repeat offenders.

3 SPECIALTY COURTS

There are two Bernalillo County Metropolitan “specialty courts” already in existence known as “Outreach Court”, formerly named Drug Court, and the “Veterans Court” that deal in one form or another with the mentally ill and/ or the seriously drug addicted who are homeless providing support services. The courts place an emphasis on diversion programs, counseling programs, providing medical and mental health assistance and to some extent housing. Both courts involve to some extent the disposal of pending criminal charges without incarceration and instead probation.

The “Metro Outreach Court” is the formerly known “Drug Court”  specialty court that deals with those charged with misdemeanors and who suffered from drug addiction. The Outreach Court program is a collaborative effort between the Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court, the Office of the District Attorney, the Law Offices of the Public Defender, the Private Defense Bar, the Bernalillo County Attorney’s Office and community providers. The court follows the American Bar Association’s (ABA) seven guiding principles for Homeless Courts and is modeled after the Sa he is following description of the court and how it operates

https://metro.nmcourts.gov/bernalillo-county-metropolitan-court/specialty-courts/outreach-court/

In May  2016, the “Metropolitan Veterans Court” was created.   The Veterans Court leads a multidisciplinary team consisting of two probation officers, an assistant district attorney, a public defender, and the Veterans Justice Outreach Coordinator from the New Mexico Veterans Administration Health Care System. To be eligible, defendants must be veterans of military service from any era regardless of discharge status, in the National Guard, or in the Reserves. Additionally, they must have been charged with a misdemeanor in Bernalillo County and volunteer to join the Court. Treatment services for any substance use disorder or mental illness, such as PTSD, are obtained primarily from the Veterans Administration Hospital or local Veterans Clinic.  Participants meet with the judge for status hearings one or more times per month, undergo frequent and random drug and alcohol testing, meet with an assigned probation officer, engage satisfactorily in treatment, and satisfy other conditions of the Court. Each participant is paired with a mentor, who is also a veteran. The unique camaraderie of the veteran’s group is a vital component in each participant’s recovery.

https://metro.nmcourts.gov/bernalillo-county-metropolitan-court/specialty-courts/community-veterans-court-c-v-c/

In 2006, the Metropolitan Traffic Court Arraignment Program was created by an agreement between the City Attorney, the Bernalillo County District Attorney and the Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court. Assistant City Attorneys are cross deputized or appointed “special prosecutors” by the Bernalillo County District Attorney with the sole authority to negotiate plea and disposition agreements in traffic cases at the time of arraignments and approved by a Metro Judge, thereby negating the need for sworn APD personnel to appear at arraignments.  When a person is stopped and issued traffic citation, the citing sworn officer determines if the driver will contest the citations. If the driver wants to contest the citations issued, an arraignment date and time is immediately scheduled by the citing officer utilizing a Metro Court scheduling program developed by the court.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

An analysis of the “Outreach Survey” of the displace homeless at Coronado Coronado Park and the 2021 Point In Time Survey reveal one unmistakable, tragic reality:  the chronic homeless who are suffering from serious mental illness and/or substance abuse are simply not getting the basic mental health care, counseling and drug treatment and rehabilitation services needed to deal with their crisis.  Many times, they simply are not in the system.

Being homeless is not a crime nor should anyone be jailed because they are homeless.  But that does not mean the homeless should be allowed to violate the law. APD must not ignore enforcing the city’s anti-camping ordinances, vagrancy laws, misdemeanor drug laws, civil nuisance abatement laws and criminal laws.  The city and law enforcement must not pretend the laws do not exist to accommodate the homeless and allow the homeless to camp wherever they want, when they want   and for as long as they can get away with it.

APD AND ACS DEPARTMENTS MUST PLAY A CRITCAL ROLE

APD is doing its job the best it can with resources it has when it comes to the homeless. As noted since the beginning of 2022 there have been issued 2,308 citations to the homeless and it has issued 614 trespassing notices with 3 trespassing stops revealing outstanding warrants.

The Albuquerque Community Safety Department (ACS) was created in part to deal with the homeless and the mentally ill by using social workers and mental health experts to reach out and to deal with the homeless as a substitute for dispatching APD.  It is ACS that is actually dispatched to deal with homeless encampments.

Much more can be done with the coordination of resources and placing an emphasis on dealing with the mentally ill and the drug addicted in the form of civil commitments through the courts.

APD and the ACS departments need to and should assume the responsivity to investigate and identify those homeless and drug addicted who are criminal offense repeat offenders and who pose an immediate danger to themselves and others. Under such circumstances, constitutional policing practices would have to be adhered to avoid violations of civil rights.  The goal would be to get the homeless identified into the civil judicial system for mental health commitment hearings.

CIVIL COMMITMENT HEARINGS

The are laws on that books that deal with when and under what circumstances formal civil commitment hearings can be initiated for 3-day, 7-day and even 30-day observation and diagnostic evaluations for the mentally ill and the drug addicted.  Such process and procedures can be utilized to deal with the homeless and to ensure that they get the medical treatment and counselling services they need. Both the City Attorney and the Bernalillo County District Attorney can and should dedicate resources in the form of attorneys that will assume the filing of civil mental health commitment pleadings for such hearings as prescribed by law. The New Mexico Public Defender should also be called upon by the Courts to provide a defense where and when it is needed.

The link to review the applicable New Mexico state statutes NM Statute §43-1-1 (2019), NM Stat § 43-1-1 (2019), NM Stat § 43-1-11 (2020) on civil mental health commitments is here:

https://law.justia.com/codes/new-mexico/2020/chapter-43/article-1/section-43-1-11/#:~:text=An%20interested%20person%20who%20reasonably,grounds%20exist%20to%20commit%2

CREATE “OUTREACH, VETERANS AND HOMELESS COURT”

A greater emphasis must be made to get those homeless who are not in the criminal justice system the medical care and assistance they need without criminal prosecution and warehousing in the county jail.  A civil mental health commitment court for the homeless   to deal with the mentally ill and the drug addicted who pose a threat to themselves, their family and the general public should be established.

One single specialty court designated as the “Outreach, Veterans and Homeless Court” or “OVH Court” should be created.  A program of cross deputization of City Attorney’s by the Bernalillo County District Attorney to allow them to file civil mental health commitment petitions in State District Court in misdemeanor and felony cases can be created.

The Criminal Division of the State District Court should assign a District Court Judge do deal exclusively with mental health commitment hearings with the help of Metro Judges and the consolidation and the assistance of “Metro Court Outreach Court” and the “Metro Community Veterans” court under one court that is established in both Metro Court and State District Court using both court’s resources including courtrooms.

APD is doing its job with resources it has when it comes to the homeless. As noted since the beginning of 2022 there have been issued 2,308 citations to the homeless and it has issued 614 trespassing notices with 3 trespassing stops revealing outstanding warrants. However, much more can be done with the coordination of resources and placing an emphasis on dealing with the mentally ill and the drug addicted. The Metro Court should establish an identical court procedure that it has with the Metro Traffic Arraignment Program that when the officer issues a citation to the homeless person, a Notice and date and time of hearing is also provided in the citation itself.

Both the City Attorney and the Bernalillo County District Attorney could dedicate resources in the form of attorneys that will assume the filing of civil mental health commitment hearings as allowed by law. A program of cross deputization of City Attorney’s by the Bernalillo County District Attorney to allow them to file civil mental health commitment petitions in State District Court in misdemeanor and felony cases needs to be created. The New Mexico Public Defender must be called upon by the Courts to provide a defense where and when needed.

EXISTING MENTAL HEALTH AND SUBSTANCE ABUSE CARE AT GIBSON GATEWAY HOMELESS SHELTER

The existing county mental health facilities and programs as well as the new Gibson Gateway Homeless Shelter would be relied upon by the OVH Specialty Court to provide the necessary referral facilities and house programs for the homeless who suffer from mental illness and drug addiction programs in lieu of jail.

The Gibson Medical Center which is being converted into the Gateway Homeless shelter, already houses at least 4 programs that deal with mental illness treatment and drug rehabilitations.  Those programs are

The Haven Behavioral Hospital, which is an inpatient and out-patient treatments for individuals struggling with mental health and substance abuse issues and

the Turquoise Lodge Hospital, a NM Department of Health hospital that provides substance abuse treatment services to New Mexico residents.

The Albuquerque Community Safety Department which is part of the City’s public safety response system, and responds to 911 calls for mental health, substance use, and homelessness issues.

AMG Specialty Hospital is a 25 Bed Long Term Acute Care hospital that specializes in the management of complex medical needs. Some of the medical conditions treated include: ventilator weaning, respiratory failure, chronic non-healing wounds, nutritional management, closed-head injury, rehabilitation with complications, and other medically complex patients.

Fresenius Medical Care provides care to people living with chronic kidney disease and related conditions,

Zia Healthcare coordinates care of patients with their providers

New Mexico Division of Vocational Rehabilitation

Encampment Outreach Team, which secures the ¼ mi radius around the facility and connects individuals in encampments to service.

https://www.cabq.gov/family/services/homeless-services/gateway-center

The Keller Administration significantly reduced plans for the Gibson Gateway Homeless Shelter, the former Lovelace Medical Hospital and Gibson medical center, from an unlimited number of overnight beds to a homeless shelter for upwards of 50 women and those needing medical care.  The Gibson Gateway Shelter has 201 patient rooms, and the facility could provide the necessary facilities for the medical care and treatment of the mentally ill.

CONCLUSION

Not until the chronically mentally ill and drug addicted homeless get the medical care and attention they so desperately need and perhaps even shun can we expect real progress in reducing the number of homeless on the streets.  An “Outreach, Veterans and Homeless Court” with a civil mental evaluation component is a viable option.

On July 30, Dawn Legacy Point filed the first application ever for a ‘Safe Outdoor Space’ homeless encampment. “Safe outdoor spaces” are city sanctioned, homeless tent encampments with 40 designated spaces for tents.  They allow upwards of 50 people to occupy the open space, require hand washing stations, toilets and showers, require a management plan, 6 foot fencing and social services offered.

The homeless encampment is intended to provide accommodations for upwards of 50 women who are homeless and who are “sex-trafficking victims” and other vulnerable populations.  The homeless encampment is to be located on vacant land at 1250 Menaul Blvd, NE which consists of two large parcels of property owned by the city with an assess value of $4, 333,55.

Less than a half mile from the vacant land and within walking distance from the property is Menaul School, a private boarding school for 6th to 12th graders. Directly across the street from the property is the T-Mobile Call Center and a Quality Inn & Suites. The vacant land borders Sunset Memorial Park to the West where it has been reported he homeless are known to use the various fountains throughout the park to wash themselves or use the fountains as a toilet.  Going West on Menaul and one block from the property is Carrington College and two apartment complexes. Immediately East of the Freeway is the massive TA Travel Truck Stop on University that can accommodate parking of upwards of 150 semitrucks. Within law enforcement circles, the truck stop is known for prostitution and illicit drug activity. Immediate south of the truck stop on University Blvd is the Crown Plaza Hotel.

https://www.abqjournal.com/2523606/cemeteries-lament-bathing-camps-on-grounds.htm

On August 8, the City Planning Department approved the Dawn Legacy Point application for a Safe Outdoor Space homeless campsite at 1250 Menaul, NE.   The City Planning Department unilaterally reviewed the application behind closed doors with no notice to surrounding businesses or neighborhood associations, no public hearing and no public input. The application was “fast tracked” by the Planning Department to approve the application just 8 days before the City Council was scheduled to repeal the Safe Outdoor Spaces.

8 APPEALS FILED

The following parties are appealing the Dawn Legacy Point Safe Outdoor Spaces homeless tent encampment, asking the City Planning Department to reverse its decision and deny the Safe Outdoor Space application of Dawn Legacy for 1250 Menaul:

1. Martineztown Santa Barbara Neighborhood Association
2. Menaul Middle School
3. Life Roots
4. Reuele Sun Corporation, a participant in the Menaul Redevelopment Area
5. Crown Plaza Hotel, a participant in the Menaul Redevelopment Area
6. T-Mobil Cell Phone Call Center
7. Sunset Memorial Cemetery
8. Greater Albuquerque Hotel and Lodging Association

NEW MEXICO SUN ARTICLES

 On August 26, the on-line news agency New Mexico Sun published two revealing articles.  One is entitled “Sex-trafficking survivor says women need more than Albuquerque’s ‘safe outdoor space’ to be safe: ‘Anything less is woefully inadequate’   written by its staff reporter Andy Nghiem. The second is entitled “Former outreach coordinator on new ‘safe’ outdoor space in Albuquerque: ‘This is the opposite of effective care’ written by staff reporter David Beasley.  Taken together the articles reveal exactly why a homeless tent encampment for victims who are “sex-trafficking victims” is “just plain crazy.”

Following are the unedited articles with the New Mexico Sun links:

HEADLINE: “FORMER OUTREACH COORDINATOR ON NEW ‘SAFE’ OUTDOOR SPACE IN ALBUQUERQUE: ‘THIS IS THE OPPOSITE OF EFFECTIVE CARE’

 “The safe outdoor space at Menaul and I-25 will not protect women and the homeless and the idea that it will is “just plain crazy talk,” said Caroline Ofe, former outreach coordinator for Refuge City, a recovery agency for child sex trafficking survivors.

 “The idea that this ‘safe space’ will be helpful to care for or protect women is just plain crazy talk,” Ofe told the New Mexico Sun. “This is the opposite of effective care and standard practices for trafficking survivors and people experiencing homelessness. Encampments like this are ineffective, actually encouraging destructive behavior and homelessness. No matter what way you slice it, they are bad for the women that they are allegedly meant to protect, and they are harmful to the homeless population, as evidenced by what happened in the previous park and similar arrangements in other parts of the country.”

 Albuquerque’s first safe outdoor space, established by the newly formed organization Dawn Legacy Point at an empty lot at Menaul and I-25, will house mostly women and those affected by sex trafficking and exploitation but will provide no security for them.                  

“There just needs to be someplace for people to go, especially when they reach the point that they are going through sex trafficking or exploitation,” Kylea Goode, chairperson of Dawn Legacy Pointe, told KOB 4 on Aug. 8 

However, housing dozens of women on one site with very little security could put them in a highly vulnerable state. “They are bad for the women that they are allegedly meant to protect, and they are harmful to the homeless population, as evidenced by what happened in the previous park and similar arrangements in other parts of the country,” Ofe said. As of now, the women who live in the encampment will be in charge of their security.

 Ofe’s reference to “what happened in the previous park” is referring to the unofficial homeless encampment at Coronado Park, which closed due to violent crime and drug trafficking, KOAT reported.              

Goode said she understands neighborhood concern but contends that arguments against safe outdoor spaces are often based on generalizations that all homeless people would introduce sex trafficking, The Albuquerque Journal reported. 

But studies show how homeless systems like this do in fact benefit human trafficking operations and expose people to trafficking at a high level. 

Dawn Legacy Pointe’s website includes a list of operational rules that were not included with their application and are in conflict with the submitted documents. For instance, its website states they will not accept sex offenders, or anyone convicted of human trafficking, but in the application for the encampment accepted by the city, the rules allow sex offenders to live in the encampment, so long as they are registered.

In addition to her time as outreach coordinator for Refuge City, Ofe is a former board member for the North Texas Coalition Against Human Trafficking, the Homeless Coalition of Dallas and the Collin County Homeless Coalition.” 

The link to the NM Sun column is here

 https://newmexicosun.com/stories/630814220-former-outreach-coordinator-on-new-safe-outdoor-space-in-albuquerque-this-is-the-opposite-of-effective-care

HEADLINE:  SEX-TRAFFICKING SURVIVOR SAYS WOMEN NEED MORE THAN ALBUQUERQUE’S ‘SAFE OUTDOOR SPACE’ TO BE SAFE: ‘ANYTHING LESS IS WOEFULLY INADEQUATE’   

“The newly formed nonprofit Dawn Legacy Point will establish Albuquerque’s first Safe Outdoor Space site at an empty lot on Menaul, just west of I-25.

After the city of Albuquerque fast-tracked and approved an application from Dawn Legacy Pointe to establish a tent camp for the homeless, concerns are being raised about the safety of its residents, and that the site might do more harm than good, especially for victims of sex trafficking.

The newly formed nonprofit Dawn Legacy Pointe will establish Albuquerque’s first Safe Outdoor Space site at an empty lot on Menaul, just west of I-25. The Dawn Legacy Pointe guidelines state that the encampment will house mostly women and those affected by sex trafficking and exploitation.

Lisa Bownds, CEO of Reflection Ministries and a survivor of sex trafficking, is a leading advocate for restorative care of trafficking victims and has established world-class facilities and programs assisting survivors. She raised concerns about the encampment as a means to support and protect women vulnerable to sex trafficking. 

When asked if the creation of the safe outdoor space tent encampment would be a good way to help protect the population of women who are victims or vulnerable to sex trafficking, Bownds said, “Sex trafficking victims are the most vulnerable group to serve given the exceedingly high level of trauma they have endured at the hands of traffickers and buyers.”

“First and foremost, they need safety, security and the services to meet their basic needs [things that are often withheld by their traffickers as a method of coercion].

Secondly, they require trauma-informed care to address the mental and physical issues developed as a result of rape, beatings and other forms of abuse. Many victims need immediate medical and therapeutic care in conjunction with extensive counseling services.

Lastly, sex trafficking victims need access to education and economic empowerment opportunities in order to join the workforce and support a new life of freedom and restoration.

All these efforts require the commitment of a proven restorative care team to transition victims to independence and self-sufficiency. Anything less is woefully inadequate.”

Agni Kudra, secretary of Dawn Legacy Pointe, mentioned the site will serve people that have been trafficked or exploited in the sex trade, but people who live nearby say they fear the sanctioned encampment will only cause harm to their neighborhoods, according to KRQE News.

“There’s not going to be a criminal element allowed here, we want to keep our residents safe so if there is any trouble, we will be calling the police,” Kudra said, according to KRQE.

Chairperson of Dawn Legacy Pointe Kylea Goode said she understands neighborhood apprehension but contends that arguments against safe outdoor spaces are often based on generalizations that all homeless people would introduce sex trafficking, according to Albuquerque Journal. Dawn Legacy Pointe seeks to serve sex trafficking victims, however, housing dozens of women on one site with very little security puts them in a highly vulnerable state. As of now, the resident women in the encampment will be in charge of their security.

“There just needs to be someplace for people to go, especially when they reach the point that they are going through sex trafficking or exploitation,” Goode told KOB4. However, since the encampment will house mostly women as well as victims of sex trafficking, the lack of security at the site is a major concern.

The Santa Barbara Martineztown Neighborhood Association, which represents the residents of the directly affected area of the encampment, filed an appeal against the City Planning Department’s approval of the Safe Outdoor Space permit. The appeal raises several issues and highlights the lack of transparency in the application and due process extended to the public and the impacted communities.

To add to the concerns, Dawn Legacy Pointe’s website includes a list of operational rules that were not included with its application and are in conflict with the documents it did include. The website states that it will not accept sex offenders, or anyone convicted of human trafficking. However, in the application for the encampment accepted by the city, the rules allow sex offenders to live in the encampment, so long as they are registered.

The link to the New Mexico Sun article is here:

https://newmexicosun.com/stories/630789366-sex-trafficking-survivor-says-women-need-more-than-albuquerque-s-safe-outdoor-space-to-be-safe-anything-less-is-woefully-inadequate

CITY’S HOUSING FIRST POLICY

 The Keller Administration has adopted a housing first policy when it comes to dealing with the homeless crisis. The city has made a huge financial commitment to help homeless or near homeless.

This past fiscal year 2021 ending June 10, 2021, the Family and Community Services Department and the Keller Administration have spent upwards of $40 Million to benefit the homeless or near homeless. The 2021 adopted city budget for Family and Community Services Department provides for emergency shelter contracts totaling $5,688,094, affordable housing and community contracts totaling $22,531,752, homeless support services contracts totaling $3,384,212, mental health contracts totaling $4,329,452, and substance abuse contracts for counseling contracts totaling $2,586,302.

The link to the 2021-2022 city approved budget is here:

https://www.cabq.gov/dfa/documents/fy22-approved-budget-numbered-w-hyperlinks-final.pdf

Mayor Keller’s 2022-2023 approved budget significantly increases the Family and Community Services budget by $24,353,064 to assist the homeless or near homeless by going from $35,145,851 to $59,498,915.

A breakdown of the amounts to help the homeless and those in need of housing assistance contained in the 2022-2023 budget is as follows:

$42,598,361 total for affordable housing and community contracts with a major emphasis on permanent housing for chronically homeless. It is $24,353,064 more than last year.

$6,025,544 total for emergency shelter contracts (Budget page 102.), down $396,354 from last year.

$3,773,860 total for mental health contracts (Budget page105.), down $604,244 from last year.

$4,282,794 total homeless support services, up $658,581 from last year.

$2,818,356 total substance abuse contracts for counseling (Budget page 106.), up by $288,680 from last year.

The link to the 2022-2023 budget it here:

https://www.cabq.gov/dfa/documents/fy23-proposed-final-web-version.pdf

The 2022-2023 adopted city contains $4 million in recurring funding and $2 million in one-time funding for supportive housing programs in the City’s Housing First model and $24 million in Emergency Rental Assistance from the federal government.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Mayor Tim Keller should be ashamed of himself.  He should know that woman who are victims of sex trafficking need permanent housing that is a safe place to live and be provided with far more stable housing than a tent in an open area.  Forcing victims of sex trafficking to live in tents is nothing more than victimizing them again.

The millions being spent each year by the city to deal with the homeless with the “housing first” policy should be more than sufficient to deal with housing the homeless, yet Mayor Keller demands and wants more from the public.  Safe Outdoor Space encampments violates the city’s “housing first” policy by not providing a form of permanent housing and with reliance on temporary housing.

What is being created at 1205 Menaul, NE is a location for victims to become victims once again. There is no common sense to it and it is indeed just plain crazy. Mayor Tim Keller holds himself out as a progressive and has made housing of the homeless a top priority, yet ostensibly he has no problem with a Safe Outdoor Space to be use for victims of sex-trafficking. 

The actual location is troubling and has the potential of becoming a magnet for crime, prostitution or illicit drug trade. It’s located in close proximity to a truck stop known amongst law enforcement for prostitution and illicit drug activity.  It’s directly across the street from a major call center, a motel suite and is walking distance of Menaul Boarding School and apartments. Occupants of the ‘Safe Outdoor Space’ will not confined and would be free to go and come as they pleased and could easily wind up uninvited wherever they want to go. This includes the truck stop and disrupting the peaceful use and enjoyment at nearby locations or engaging in illicit activity.

Safe Outdoor Spaces are not the answer to the homeless crisis. “Safe Outdoor Spaces” will be a disaster for the city as a whole. They will destroy neighborhoods, make the city a magnet for the homeless and destroy the city’s efforts to manage the homeless through housing. The homeless crisis will not be solved by the city, but it can and must be managed. Safe Outdoor Spaces represent a very temporary place to pitch a tent, relieve oneself, bathe and sleep at night with rules that will not likely be followed.

The answer is to the homeless crisis is to provide the homeless the support services, including food and permanent lodging, and mental health care needed to allow the homeless to turn their lives around and perhaps become productive self-sufficient citizens. Ten encampments are nothing short of inhumane treatment of the homeless.

 

On Sunday, August 28 and Monday August 29, the Albuquerque Journal released its poll in the statewide races for Governor,  Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and Commissioner of Public Lands.

The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for many decades has done all political polling for the Journal.  The polling firm is considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.

“The Journal Poll was based on a scientific, statewide sample of 518 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Aug. 19 through Aug. 25. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.”

The links to the full quoted Albuquerque Journal articles are here;

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527965/lujan-grisham-has-7point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

https://www.abqjournal.com/2528104/democrats-lead-big-in-races-for-4-state-offices.html

GOVERNORS RACE

On Sunday, August 28, the Albuquerque Journal released it first poll in the statewide race for Governor between Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti.

The poll question was “If the election for Governor   was held today, who would you vote for?”

The poll results are as follows:

Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 47%

Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%

Libertarian Karen Bedoni: 5%

Undecided: 8%

ATTORNEY GENERAL, SECRETARY OF STATE, STATE TREASURER AND LAND COMMISSIONER

On Monday, August 29, the Albuquerque Journal published it poll on the state wide races for Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer and Commissioner of Public Lands. Following are the poll questions an results:

SECRETARY OF STATE

POLL QUESTION: “If the election for Secretary of State was held today, who would you vote for?”

The poll results are as follows:

Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver: 45%

Republican Audrey Trujillo: 33%

Libertarian Mayna Erika Myers: 4%

[Declined to Say]: 3%

Undecided: 16%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

POLL QUESTION: If the election for Attorney General  was held today, who would you vote for?

The poll results are as follows:

Democrat Raul Torrez: 49%

Republican Jeremy Gay: 33%

[Declined to Say]: 3%

Undecided: 15%

STATE TREASURER

POLL QUESTION: If the election for State Treasurer were held today, who would you vote for?

The poll results are as follows:

Democrat Laura Montoya: 44%

Republican Harry Montoya: 33%

[Declined to Say]: 4%

Undecided:  19%

COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS

POLL QUESTION: If the election for Commissioner of Public Lands was held today, who would you for?

The poll results are as follows:

Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard: 46%

Republican Jefferson Byrd: 35%

[Declined to State]: 3%

Undecided: 17%

VOTER REGISTATION

According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown of the registration numbers is as follows:

Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,

Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %,

No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %

Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 %

Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

When it comes to New Mexico politics and statewide races, the old saying is so very true that “Republicans win when Democrats stay home”.  Republicans tend to have higher voter participation percentages out of sure survival instinct. The significance of the independent voters also cannot be overstated in that they represent 22.5% of all registered voters in the state.

It should not come as any surprise that the New Mexico Governor’s race is the closest of all the top statewide races with a single 7% digit lead by the incumbent.  Historically, that has always been the case in New Mexico.  However, when it comes to the other statewide races, Democrats are leading Republicans by at least 10% in all the races.

Governor Lujan has yet to achieve the magic number of 50% plus one that will ensure her reelection. Notwithstanding, with two full months left in the race, she is very much in striking distance and will only have to close a 3% gap.  Ronchetti on the other hand has a staggering 10% gap to close when there is only 8% undecided.  Ronchetti will have to convince the 8% undecided to vote for him as well as convince at least 2% of the Governor’s support to change their support for her.

Lujan Grisham also has the advantage of incumbency. The last time a sitting New Mexico governor was defeated was in 1994, when incumbent Democrat Bruce King was ousted by Republican Gary Johnson. Since then, Johnson, Democrat Bill Richardson and Republican Susana Martinez have all easily won reelection to second terms.

If the poll numbers hold true over the next two months as is expected, the 2022 elections for Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer and Land Commissioner are likely over.   Voter turnout in those races will likely benefit Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s reelection prospects, of course only if Democrats get out to vote.

The forecast for Republican Marck Ronchetti is “very cloudy” and there is a likelihood of a heavy monsoon rain on his parade come November 8.

At this point, the biggest danger Democrats face is a low voter turnout and apathy.

A link to a related blog article is here:

Albuquerque Journal Poll Released In Governor’s Race: Governor Lujan Grisham 47%, Mark Ronchetti 40%, Undecided 5%, Libertarian 5%; Two Months Is An Eternity In Politics; Expect McCleskey Hit Pieces Against Lujan Grisham

 

 

On Sunday, August 28, the Albuquerque Journal released it first poll in the 2022 Governor’s race between Democrat Incumbent Michell Lujan Grisham and Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti.  The poll was conducted by Research and Polling which for decades has done all political polling for the Journal and with polling firm considered the gold standard in New Mexico political polling because of its consistent accuracy.

“The Journal Poll was based on a scientific, statewide sample of 518 voters who cast ballots in the 2018 and/or 2020 general election and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll was conducted from Aug. 19 through Aug. 25. The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.”

The link to the full quoted Albuquerque Journal article is here;

https://www.abqjournal.com/2527965/lujan-grisham-has-7point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

RESULTS OF JOURNAL POLL

The poll asked the question “If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? “ The results reported are:

Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham: 47%

Republican Mark Ronchetti: 40%

Libertarian Karen Bedoni: 5%

UNDECIDED: 8%

The demographics of the poll for each candidate were broken down as follows:

GENDER DEMOGRAPHICS

MALE:

44% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

43% for Republican Ronchetti

3% for Libertarian Bedonie

FEMALE:    

50% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

36% for Republican Ronchetti

3% for Libertarian Bedonie

ETHNICITY DEMOGRAPHICS

HISPANIC:

56% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

32% for Republican Ronchetti

4% for Libertarian Bedonie

ANGLO:

42% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

46% for Republican Ronchetti

6% for Libertarian Bedonie

EDUCATION DEMOGRAPHICS

High school graduate:

47% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

44% for Republican Ronchetti

5% for Libertarian Bedonie

Some College or Associate Degree

40% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

44% for Republican Ronchetti

5% for Libertarian Bedonie

College Graduate

51% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

33% for Republican Ronchetti

6% for Libertarian Bedonie

Graduate Degree

58% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

32% for Republican Ronchetti

4% for Libertarian Bedonie

POLTICAL PARTY BREAKDOWN

DEMOCRAT

82% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

9% for Republican Ronchetti

2% for Libertarian Bedonie

REPUBLICAN

7% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

84% for Republican Ronchetti

3% for Libertarian Bedonie

OTHER PARTY AFFILIATION

35% for Democrat Lujan Grisham

30% for Republican Ronchetti

14% for Libertarian Bedonie

FOLLOW THE MONEY

According to the campaign financial reports filed with the New Mexico secretary of State, Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti have both raised and are spending significant amounts of money for their campaigns. As of last month, Lujan Grisham had more than $2.7 million in her reelection account, compared to about $1.4 million in Ronchetti’s account.  However, Ronchetti outraised Lujan Grisham during monthlong period that started before the June primary.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

There are six major take ways that can be gleaned from the Alburquerque Journal Poll:

FIRST AND FOREMOST TAKEAWAY

Governor Lujan Grisham was elected to her first term as governor in 2018.  She defeated former Republican Congressman Steve Pearce decisively when she received 57% of the vote compared to 43% for Pearce.  The election had an all-time voter turnout of upwards of nearly 700,000 votes cast.  Things have changed for Lujan Grisham and she is faced with a more difficult election.

Governor Lujan has yet to achieve the magic number of 51% that will ensure her reelection. Notwithstanding, with two full months left in the race, she is very much in striking distance and will only have to close a 3% gap.  Ronchetti on the other hand has a staggering 10% gap to close when there is only 8% undecided. Ronchetti will have to convince the 8% undecided to vote for him as well as convince at least 2% of the Governor’s support to change their support for her.

SECOND MAJOR TAKEAWAY

Both candidates have the overwhelming support from their individual parties.   Lujan Grisham has 82% support from the Democrats while Ronchetti has 84% support of Republicans.  The problem for Ronchetti and the advantage for Lujan Grisham is the desperate number of Democrats to Republicans in New Mexico. With 20% of independent voters surveyed saying they are still undecided, both candidates will now likely concentrate on the independent voters to secure a win.

The significance of the Independent voters cannot be overstated in that they represent 22.5% of all registered voters in the state. According to New Mexico Voter Registration Statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State, as of January 31, 2022, there are a total of 1,342,690 registered voters in the state.  The breakdown is as follow

Registered Democrats: 599,242, or 44.6 %,

Registered Republicans: 414,067 or  30.8 %,

No Party or Independents:  301,598 or 22.5 %

Registered Libertarian:  13,644  or 1.0 %

Other Registrations:  14,139 or 1.1 %

The link to the Secretary of State spreadsheet on voter registration is here:

https://api.realfile.rtsclients.com/PublicFiles/ee3072ab0d43456cb15a51f7d82c77a2/f7ecf5cb-2653-4b16-b2a5-6fd42cdcb6f0/Statewide_01-31-2022.pdf

THIRD MAJOR TAKEAWAY

Republican Mark Ronchetti has a very serious gender gap problem that will be difficult to overcome. Both Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti enjoy essentially equal support among men, with Lujan Grisham having 44% support among men and Ronchetti having 43% among men. However, Lujan Grisham enjoys 50% support among woman and Republican Ronchetti has only 36% among women.  Abortion and woman’s reproductive rights have become the defining issue in the race for Governor.  Ronchetti’s anemic support among woman is attributed to his support to abolish all reproductive rights for woman and to start with banning late term abortions and eventually ban all abortions in New Mexico.

FOURTH MAJOR TAKEAWAY

Not at all surprising is that Democrat Lujan Grisham has a more than comfortable lead over Ronchetti with Hispanic voters with a 25% advantage at 56% support to Republican Ronchetti’s 32%.   Amongst Anglo voters, Republican Roncheti has a 4% advantage amongst Anglos with 46% compared to 42% for Democrat Lujan Grisham. New Mexico as a whole is classified as a “minority majority” state meaning that the majority of its entire population is classified as a minority with Hispanic being the most prominent ethnicity.

FIFTH MAJOR TAKEAWAY

When it comes to education levels, Democrat Lujan Grisham has a significant advantage over Ronchetti.  Amongst the college and graduate degree educated, Lujan Grisham has 51% and 58% support advantage respectively compared to Ronchetti’s  32% and 33% respectively.  Amongst the high school educated Lujan Grisham has a 3% advantage with 47% to 44% respectively.  Amongst the “some college or associate degree educated”, Ronchetti has a 4% support advantage with 44% to 40%.

SIXTH MAJOR TAKEAWAY

On May 12, KOB 4 reported that a SurveyUSA poll found that Governor Lujan Grisham held a slim 4% lead over Ronchetti with at 47% to 43%.  The Lujan Grisham campaign was so alarmed that it used the poll results for fundraising.

The link to the SurveyUSA poll is here:

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4a522d37-094b-4138-b451-2a497f1da2bf

In addition to the New Mexico Governor’s race, the SurveyUsa poll also asked voters what issues were at the  top of their mind as they considered voting. The economy and inflation was the easy winner, with 41%of voters saying it was their most important issue. At 16%, crime led a three-issue group in second place. Climate change and water supply concerns were at 13% as fires raged across the state.

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/santa-fe-northern-new-mexico/ronchetti-pulls-close-to-mlg-in-head-to-head-poll/

Over the las 3 months, the national and state political winds have changed dramatically and so has the voter mood benefiting democrats and Governor Lujan Grisham.  During the last 3 months, the following has occurred:

1. The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark case of Roe v. Wade abolishing a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion and setting aside woman’s reproductive rights. Ronchetti praised the Supreme Court’s ruling when it first came out and he was exposed by Albuquerque Legacy Church Pastor Steve Smothermon as holding extreme views on abortion and wanting to criminalize all abortions.
2. Democrats have secured major approval of legislation in congress including billions for infrastructure and approval of a federal climate change law with federal monies allocated to the State.
3. The Congressional Investigation of Donald Trump and his orchestrating the January 6 capitol riot to set aside the election has taken its toll as has the recent federal search warrant confirming he is being investigated for mishandling of highly classified documents that may have endangered or compromised the country’s national security or espionage.
4. New Mexico is experiencing historical windfalls in the billions of surplus revenue which is now being invested by the state with the Governor announcing almost daily new infrastructure projects and how the money is being spent.
5. There has been major decline in the state’s unemployment rate to 4.5% that the Governor can and is taking credit for.
6. The effects of the pandemic are finally receding with Governor Lujan Grisham being given high marks for her handling of not only the pandemic crisis but also the handling of natural disasters such as the fires and flooding.
7. Gas prices have gone down dramatically by as much as $1 per gallon.

FINAL COMMENTARY

Two months in any statewide race is an eternity in politics with the election scheduled for November 8.  Voters can expect an extreme ramping up of negative campaign ads that are even worse than what has been going on, especially from Republican Mark Ronchetti.

Least anyone forgets, Jay McCleskey is Republican Mark Ronchetti’s campaign manager and political consultant. Simply put, Jay McCleskey is the go-to guy for anyone who is Republican running for office willing to spend and do whatever it takes to win an election at any and all costs.  McClesky managed the successful campaigns of Mayor Richard Berry and Governor Suzanna Martinez as well as numerous campaigns for local and state offices

Former Republican Governor Susana Martinez was vicious in going after members of her own party who disagreed with her and she did that with Jay Mc Clesky carrying out her orders. It was reported that Southern New Mexico rancher Scott Chandler, a Republican, settled a defamation lawsuit he filed claiming political consultant Jay McCleskey and the former Republican Governor’s political action committee circulated untruthful mailers about him during the 2016 campaign. On December 15, 2021, the case was settled with McClesky’s insurance company agreeing to pay $375,000 to settle the defamation claims against McClesky.

One thing is for certain is that when you hire Jay Mc Clesky to manage your campaign, and if you do win, you can expect him to exert great influence over you until the day you leave office, as was the case with Republican Governor Suzana Martinez.  Jay McCleskey, who was not a state employee, had an office on the 4th floor of the state capitol next to the Governor Martinez.   McCleskey, who was living rent free in the Governor’s mind, thrust himself right in the middle of political appointments and government decisions.

During her first year in office, Governor Susanna Martinez was alleged to have been involved with a “play to play” controversy involving the award of a $1 Billion-dollar, 25-year, Albuquerque Downs Racetrack contract, dubbed by politicos as “The Dirty Downs Deal”. At the very center of the “Dirty Downs Deal” was Jay Mc Clesky who carried out the Governor’s orders. Allegations of nefarious conduct around the Downs lease involved political insiders, significant campaign contributions to Martinez and attempts to hide political donations and contributions to Governor Martinez or her political action committee from donors connected to the Downs.

Jay McCleskey is New Mexico’s version of Lee Atwater or Karl Rove, two of the most despicable right wing Republican bottom feeders and political consultants and strategists for the Republican Party.  McClesky has even received praises for his work from Karl Rove.  McClesky is known for his negative slash-and-burn tactics to disparage and viciously malign Democrats at all levels and he has been very successful at it in New Mexico for the last 20 years making a very lucrative living.

A “political hit piece” is the lowest form of negative campaigning used by all successful bottom feeder political consultants to smear the reputation of an opponent. It’s difficult to respond to a political hit piece, especially at the end of a contentious campaign or if an opponent does not have the financial resources to respond to the lies and the liars who tell them. In New Mexico, McCleskey has elevated the “political hit piece” to an art form. His tactics are often condemned by the public and those who are the target. The problem is that negative campaigning and smear tactics work and has worked for Jay McClesky over the years.

Brace yourself New Mexico, the race for Governor of New Mexico in 2022 will likely be the most negative in the state’s history.  Should Republican Mark Ronchetti win, you can fully expect the return of shadow Governor Jay McClusky hiding behind the “green screen” of Mark Ronchetti as he pretends to know what he is talking about.